What should the Sox do with Swihart when Hanigan returns?

[MikeM]

 
Why trade Hanigan when the easier thing to do is jettison the waste of space that is Sandy Leon?  Hanigan has value to the team beyond this season since he's locked up for two more years (club option in '17).  He's good insurance against one of or both Swihart and Vazquez not being ready for full time big league action.

 
Not arguing Hanigan doesn't have his value, but how good of an insurance policy is he really? An early run of walks this season aside, he's a declining player who's arguably not even capable of handling the type of workload the people calling to send Swihart down want to dump back in his lap. 
 
So we send Swihart down and there's a decent chance he's back in what, a month? Plus this season already sucks enough without upping the dose of Leon. My vote is to just leave Swihart alone and let him continue to take his progression lumps up here. 

 

[mauidano]

If you trade Hanigan, who will come over to your house and fix stuff?

 

[MakMan44]

For a 23 YO catcher who just made it to the bigs, I'd argue that is a lot of improvement over the course of a single month. Besides, what's Hanigan's upside vs Swihart's? It's not like we're talking about a star catcher coming back, or even Vaz. I think he's shown enough improvement that he should be kept up. 

 

[radsoxfan]

 
 
I think that a lot of the "needs to stay, showing lots of improvement" talk is coming from the heart, not the head.
 
 I don't understand why we keep pretending a sub 600 OPS is some dramatic sign of progress.

 
I don't think the "showing lots of improvement" argument or the "dramatic signs of progress" argument is really coming from anyone's heart or head.  I'm not sure who is making that argument at all.
 
He has been a bit better this month, that's all. Unless I missed something, I don't think anyone is making it out to be more than that.  And with the small samples, even that might not be particularly useful, but it's worth watching.
 
I don't think anyone is really worried about Swihart hurting the major league product, because there are no better options.  If those who want to send him down are convinced he can't learn and develop at the major league level, fair enough.  But generally speaking, I don't agree with that. It's not like he had a huge jump or a very atypical path to the majors.  A couple hundred more AAA at bats would have been reasonable, but I don't think its a huge deal one way or the other. 
 
Is it the service time issue thats bugging you?  

 

[MakMan44]

 
There's significant upside for Swihart. I'd much rather have a year at the back end than one at the beginning though. Send him down, and keep him in Pawtucket until he forces the issue. Keeps his service time down and gives him more exposure to AAA- which he's barely played at, never mind mastered. I don't understand why we keep pretending a sub 600 OPS is some dramatic sign of progress. Saying that you think Swihart should be sent down doesn't mean you hate him or that he sucks or anything.

He's made strides AT the highest level of play. They're not the end all, be all, but I think they're enough to show that he can make improvements over the rest of the season and that's why I don't think he should be sent back down. 
 
Also, he should already have that additional year at the end if he sticks. Not sure why that's a concern of yours UNLESS you were talking about keeping him down to begin next season as well. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's the service time, yeah, and the fact that his AAA resume is 145 PA's and a 283 / 338 / 380 line. He was only called up out of necessity, and I don't think his performance has shown he's really ready. The May and June #s aren't dramatically different. 
 
I guess he could learn and develop at the major league level, but is that optimal? 
 
Still time to see where he's at when Hanigan is ready, but I'm surprised to see so many people wanting to keep him up considering the JBJ debate of a few years ago.

 
Unless you don't think he should be back in the bigs until at least June/July of next year, the service time issue is more or less a moot point.  They've got him under control for the next 6 years after this year thanks to the fact that he was already down all of April.  Spending more time in the minors this year won't change his status unless it's coupled with remaining in the minors next year for at least the first two months (until he "makes up" the service time he's accrued this season already).
 
Given the question marks around Vazquez as far as next spring goes (the injury and his own lack of development), as long as Swihart continues to show improvement and development the rest of this year (in the bigs or in the minors), he's going to be in the mix to start next year on the big league roster.  The team may not be in a position to send him down to save his service time next spring if he's shows himself to be one of the two best catchers in the organization and the alternative is rushing Vazquez back when he may not be ready (physically or developmentally).

 

[Super Nomario]

 
Unless you don't think he should be back in the bigs until at least June/July of next year, the service time issue is more or less a moot point.  They've got him under control for the next 6 years after this year thanks to the fact that he was already down all of April.  Spending more time in the minors this year won't change his status unless it's coupled with remaining in the minors next year for at least the first two months (until he "makes up" the service time he's accrued this season already).
 
Given the question marks around Vazquez as far as next spring goes (the injury and his own lack of development), as long as Swihart continues to show improvement and development the rest of this year (in the bigs or in the minors), he's going to be in the mix to start next year on the big league roster.  The team may not be in a position to send him down to save his service time next spring if he's shows himself to be one of the two best catchers in the organization and the alternative is rushing Vazquez back when he may not be ready (physically or developmentally).

They could also sign a one-year stop gap. As it stands now, I'm not feeling great about any of Vazquez, Swihart, or Hanigan as the Opening Day 2016 catcher.
 
We don't know how the service time thing will play out. I remember people arguing about whether service time should factor in Jackie Bradley Jr making the opening day roster in 2013 - now it's two years later and he's back in the minors. Swihart could be up next year, he could be down, he could be up and down. I don't think you can assume he won't spent any of 2016 in the minors. That said, I think the priority should be his development. I'm with Rudy P that AAA is the most appropriate level for him currently.

 

[reggiecleveland]

No, no! You don't understand. Small sample sizes are only meaningless when they call into question a Bosox player's real value. If a small sample size shows improvement over some previously established baseline, that's a meaningful change that points directly to future superstardom.

This is wonderful, in the sense that reflects the opposite of what really happens.
 
There was no "JBJ Man Hate" thread after his first two 0-4 games.

 

[Plympton91]

I see no reason to believe that Vazquez will be physically ready to catch April 1st next season, and even if he is I see no reason to believe that after missing a year he'd be a better option to catch than Swihart.  So, as others have said, the service time issue is moot.
 
The only question is whether his development is being stunted by playing in the big leagues.  Given that his offensive performance has been fine since he started out his career in a 2-22 slump (not sure why we'd choose an arbitrary date of May 31st as the cutoff like Rudy did) and that his performance would look even better if he'd been having average luck on balls in play, I see absolutely no evidence that his development is negatively affected by being in MLB.
 
Plus, again, Leon is one of the worst players to ever wear a Red Sox uniform.  He needs to be gone.

 

[Super Nomario]

I see no reason to believe that Vazquez will be physically ready to catch April 1st next season, and even if he is I see no reason to believe that after missing a year he'd be a better option to catch than Swihart.  So, as others have said, the service time issue is moot.

Maybe, maybe not. Swihart might be the best opening day option, but he might not be, and being the best opening day option doesn't preclude spending some time in the minors anyway.
 

 The only question is whether his development is being stunted by playing in the big leagues.  Given that his offensive performance has been fine since he started out his career in a 2-22 slump (not sure why we'd choose an arbitrary date of May 31st as the cutoff like Rudy did) and that his performance would look even better if he'd been having average luck on balls in play, I see absolutely no evidence that his development is negatively affected by being in MLB.

5/31 is an arbitrary cutoff, but cutting it off after his 2-22 start seems arbitrary to me as well. He's .247/.295/.326 since that start, for the record. His BABIP on the season is .295, which is almost exactly AL average (.293), so I'm not sure why you don't think his balls-in-play luck is below average.
 

Plus, again, Leon is one of the worst players to ever wear a Red Sox uniform.  He needs to be gone.

Leon is terrible.

 

[TomRicardo]

It's the service time, yeah, and the fact that his AAA resume is 145 PA's and a 283 / 338 / 380 line. He was only called up out of necessity, and I don't think his performance has shown he's really ready. The May and June #s aren't dramatically different. 
 
I guess he could learn and develop at the major league level, but is that optimal? 
 
Still time to see where he's at when Hanigan is ready, but I'm surprised to see so many people wanting to keep him up considering the JBJ debate of a few years ago.

 
 
I think catcher is a position you learn the most from being in the major leagues.  The Big Leagues have far more detailed scouting reports and also you learn to work the rotation.  It usually takes catchers a season or two to catch up and start hitting.
 
I rather him go through his growing pains while it doesn't matter.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I would send him down and try to preserve service time (even if it is unlikely to matter) but I think the Sox will keep him up on the theory it's best for him to take his lumps in this lost season and maybe next year, he, X, amd Mookie will lead the Sox to the playoffs.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

I keep him up if only for the reason it keeps Leon from ever swinging a bat in a RedSox uniform ever again. Saw him live last night and I honestly can't begin to list the problems with that swing. I left the park with the firm belief that Leon is not only the worst hitter in MLB, but I'm going so far to say he's has the worst swing of any professional player in any league in any part of the world, which includes a bunch of kids that got drafted last week. Of course he ended up flaring one to left, but Clay Buchholz batting behind him looked like a professional hitter compared to Leon. 
 
We should play Blake until Hannigan is ready and then cut Leon, he'll have the distinction of his last two ML AB's being an IBB and a "liner" to left, which is more of a legacy than he deserves. 

 

[The Tax Man]

In the first part of a three part series, Abs looks at the progress that Swihart has made in June:
 
http://sonsofsamhorn.com/baseball/teams/al-east/boston-red-sox/the-kids-are-alright-part-one-blake-swihart/
 
It's my personal guess that if Blake continues to perform this well in the batter's box that the Sox will not send him back to Pawtucket. 

 

[grimshaw]

Bradford was talking to Lovullo on Saturday about Swihart and what could happen with him once Hanigan returns.
 
He was non-committal as one would expect, but he was talking in generalities about how catchers are one of those positions where players can benefit more from being up even if they aren't playing every day.  He also talked about how Swihart hadn't had as much time to work on his hitting and how it is just starting to catch up now.
 
Reading between the lines it sounded as though they were leaning towards keeping him up.

 

[chrisfont9]

The correct answer to this is, of course, wherever Swihart's development is best served. And this is something that should be left up to the professional talent evaluators in the FO. I certainly don't claim to have any insight into whether he's better off learning in the Show or in AAA.

If it WAS left up to me I'd keep him in Boston. His offense does seem to be coming around and you don't learn to hit major league pitching in Pawtucket. His defense has been at least adequate if not better. But that's just me.

The team always seemed intent on him spending the year in the minors, and while he's handled himself OK, I don't think we've seen much that would change their mind. Send him down.

 

[moondog80]

If they send him down because it's in his best interest, then he shouldn't have been up in the first place. You mean they couldn't have found someone else to perform the way they expected Swihart to perform?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

There is no reason to send Swihart down as long as he appears to be adjusting and progressing. I mean, is there?

 

[JimD]

A vote to send Blake Swihart down is a vote to keep Sandy Leon on the Boston Red Sox roster.  'Nuff said.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

A vote to send Blake Swihart down is a vote to keep Sandy Leon on the Boston Red Sox roster.  'Nuff said.

 
What if the catchers are Kratz and Hanigan? Just because Leon was acquired first doesn't mean he's necessarily ahead of Kratz on the depth chart.

 

[chrisfont9]

A vote to send Blake Swihart down is a vote to keep Sandy Leon on the Boston Red Sox roster.  'Nuff said.

Why is the next two weeks more important than Swihart's long-term development?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Why is the next two weeks more important than Swihart's long-term development?

Why is staying on the roster harmful to Swihart's long-term development?

 

[Rough Carrigan]

Could we create a minor league team on Devil's Island, preferably in the leper colony in order to send Sandy Leon there?
 
When a team plays an extreme shift against Ortiz, one can be a little irritated that he doesn't bunt against it and take the free base but it's Papi and you know he can still rake.  There's a trade off there that still seems worthwhile.
 
Sandy Leon is now hitting .171/.256/.186 on the season.  That's fucking terrible, utterly terrible.  Every time he comes to the plate he presents almost no chance of something good happening.
 
So, Leon comes to bat in the 6th with one out and Sandoval on first.  The Orioles went into an extreme shift, the same shift they go into against Ortiz.  And Sandy Leon, Sandy fucking Leon, the guy hitting .171/.256/.186 on the season, had too much fucking pride or some other mental defection seemingly common on the 2015 Red Sox and couldn't be bothered to try to bunt to the open half of the field.  A  .171/.256/.186 hitter whose true hitting talents are probably fairly represented by that slash line, refused to take a free base. 

 

[soxhop411]

Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber 1h1 hour ago
Sandy Leon's ability to work with Buchholz/success in controlling running game makes him likely to stay once Hanigan returns #RedSox

Scott Lauber ‏@ScottLauber 25m25 minutes ago
Still possible #RedSox carry 3 catchers for a bit. But sending down Swihart a) keeps him playing every day, b) preserves roster depth

 

[KillerBs]

Wow. Leon is being kept and Swihart is going down? And this too is because we cant give up on 2015 just yet? Or perhaps they will lock Sandy up long term since his relationship with Clay is so good. 

 

[ehaz]

Let's give him 5/90

 

[chrisfont9]

Why is staying on the roster harmful to Swihart's long-term development?

That's not for me to answer, but it's the most likely view the Sox would take if they chose to send him down.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Wow. Leon is being kept and Swihart is going down? And this too is because we cant give up on 2015 just yet? Or perhaps they will lock Sandy up long term since his relationship with Clay is so good.

 
Maybe they're shopping Clay and they don't want to deprive him of his binky while his market is hot? I dunno.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

Let's give him 5/90

Overpay. 4/70.

 

[redsoxstiff]

If or when he stops learning and it is determined he Just has to wade through it...Pawtucket it is...

I would be reluctant to send him down and hope to see him stay here.

 

[Plympton91]

Going with 3 catchers for now? Hard to understand that one. Maybe they'll try to trade Hannigan before activating Victorino?

I can't believe they're going to keep Leon to be Clay's personal catcher. Clay could probably outhit Leon. But, I think you can't DH for anyone but the pitcher, right?

 

[steveluck7]

One of the benefits of sending someone down is for regular playing time and at bats. For a catcher, might the benefit of working day in day out with the ML staff and coaches, even if he's not playing everyday, be greater than getting more at bats in AAA?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Going with 3 catchers for now? Hard to understand that one. Maybe they'll try to trade Hannigan before activating Victorino?

I can't believe they're going to keep Leon to be Clay's personal catcher. Clay could probably outhit Leon. But, I think you can't DH for anyone but the pitcher, right?

Correct. The rule states the DH can only be used for the pitcher. With Clay pitching, Leon at C, and Marrero at 2B in a NL park you could make a case for Clay hitting 7th.

 

[soxhop411]

Maureen Mullen ‏@MaureenaMullen  38s38 seconds ago
Looks like DL for Swihart.

 

[threecy]

Sprained left foot sustained a few weeks ago; retroactive July 1.

 

[AB in DC]

Nice of him to wait until Hanigan was back before he got injured.

 

[InsideTheParker]

Nice of him to wait until Hanigan was back before he got injured.

Hasn't he been nursing a bad foot since he hurt it at third base against the Royals? From what Farrell said last night, I think that we can infer that Blake has been playing with pain and we have seen far too much of Sandy Leon because they were waiting for Hanigan to be ready to play.

 

[aron7awol]

I was running the 2015 to-date numbers through my xBABIP/xAVG spreadsheet, and noticed Hanigan's extreme line drive rate (30% before the 3 hits to right today) so far this year.  For all the hand-wringing around here about his ineptitude with the bat, he's certainly been extremely unlucky with a .245 BABIP vs. .401 xBABIP, and .206 AVG vs. .336 xAVG.  Now obviously that is unsustainably good, but that's his batted ball profile so far this year, so he would deserve the .336 AVG if he actually had it today.
 
This made me take a look at his batted ball profile over his career, and it looked pretty good to my somewhat trained eye, so I decided to run his career numbers through the same spreadsheet.  His career (1920 PA) BABIP is .277 vs. xBABIP of .316, which gives him a .254 AVG vs. a .289 xAVG.  I don't have access to his minor league batted ball profile, but he did have a career .326 BABIP and .293 AVG in his 2270 PA MiLB career.
 
This all leads me to believe there is significant additional upside in Hanigan, while realizing that he's 34 years old and no longer in his prime.  However, I also didn't realize until now just how great his pitch recognition and hand-eye coordination is.  His contact rate and plate discipline stats are legitimately excellent, and they really haven't suffered as he's aged.  Combine all of this with his great defense and pitch framing, and he could be hugely valuable down the stretch.  With his contract at $3.5M this year and $3.7M next year, he could be an absolute steal.

 

[threecy]

If Buchholz's elbow injury is significant, one has to wonder how much longer Leon will be around once Swihart is healthy...

 

[grimshaw]

If Buchholz's elbow injury is significant, one has to wonder how much longer Leon will be around once Swihart is healthy...

I mentioned that in the game thread.  He's out of options so they would have to DFA him.  I would think he could sneak through waivers and be stashed in AAA. until Clay is back since he is the definition of replacement level.  Swihart is already in AAA so he would probably be ready the first game back from the All-Star break.

 

[MikeM]

I mentioned that in the game thread.  He's out of options so they would have to DFA him.  I would think he could sneak through waivers and be stashed in AAA. until Clay is back since he is the definition of replacement level.  Swihart is already in AAA so he would probably be ready the first game back from the All-Star break.

 
I ultimately have my doubts on a rest of season game plan which either requires Hanigan to be a full time starter (without breaking down), or sees a lot more of Leon then his Buchholz factor arguably warrants. 
 
Swihart is the future and his offense saw enough of an improvement in June. Hope to see him back and starting asap. 

 

[jscola85]

Very noticeable split for Swihart:
 
First month of his callup (21 games): .225/.257/.268, 28% K%, 5% BB% in 75 PAs
Since then: (31 games): .275/.308/.392, 24% K%, 5% BB% in 107 PAs
 
Swihart's .700 OPS from June onward would rank 14th in the majors among catchers with at least 200 PAs.  Assuming at least part of his May figures were just due to adjusting to the majors after an emergency call-up, Swihart looks well-poised for 2016 to take some big steps forward. Given catchers don't usually mature until 25-27, there's a lot to be excited about with Swihart for the next few years.

 

[In my lifetime]

Once the conclusion is reached that Vazquez is ready, the RS will have 3 catchers who belong on Major League rosters. Considering the holes in the rest of the roster, one becomes trade bait. I am sure most of the board hopes it is Hanigan considering his age. I would think he has moderate trade value since he is due to be paid 3.7 and an option for 3.75 in 2017. By moderate, I mean a return of a 7th inning set up man on a fair market contract would be a good return for a team in need.

Vazquez would have to prove he is healthy to be anything but a sell low candidate. Swihart should be close to untouchable at this point.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Once the conclusion is reached that Vazquez is ready, the RS will have 3 catchers who belong on Major League rosters. Considering the holes in the rest of the roster, one becomes trade bait. I am sure most of the board hopes it is Hanigan considering his age. I would think he has moderate trade value since he is due to be paid 3.7 and an option for 3.75 in 2017. By moderate, I mean a return of a 7th inning set up man on a fair market contract would be a good return for a team in need.
Vazquez would have to prove he is healthy to be anything but a sell low candidate. Swihart should be close to untouchable at this point.

Or because of this depth, Swihart may be used as the centerpiece of a trade for a young, cost controlled ace.

 

[bellowthecat]

As much as I love Vazquez I have a hard time seeing him being given a major league roster spot right out of the gate next year if Hannigan and Swihart are both healthy. The organization will send him to Pawtucket to get some ABs and rust off then get called up when someone gets injured or under-performs. The Red Sox need depth at catcher more than they need to trade those guys away. They can get pitching without giving up Swihart.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

As much as I love Vazquez I have a hard time seeing him being given a major league roster spot right out of the gate next year if Hannigan and Swihart are both healthy. The organization will send him to Pawtucket to get some ABs and rust off then get called up when someone gets injured or under-performs. The Red Sox need depth at catcher more than they need to trade those guys away. They can get pitching without giving up Swihart.

 
I agree.  He's got an option left and they'll absolutely use it to keep as many resources in house as possible next spring.  The only way I can see them not doing that is if, like BMHH says, there's a can't pass up trade opportunity that includes Swihart.
 
Given his age and the year off, I don't think any harm can come out of stashing Vazquez in Pawtucket next year until a need arises.  Particularly if Swihart continues to improve as a major league hitter.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

If everything goes right for Vazquez from his TJ recovery, he's not starting in AAA. He's the major league #1 because of his defense despite what Swihart hits finishing this season. Swihart gets great defensive projections because of his athleticism, but I think we've all seen this year that he's got a ways to go in regards to framing, handling a staff, and blocking. We're in extra innings last night if Swihart blocks that WP, he's not there yet. And so far the offensive difference isn't enough to offset the defensive advantage that Vazquez brings. 
 
Vazquez in 201 PA's 240/308/309
Swihart in 182 PA's 254/287/341
 
Wieters returned to a MLB game 11.5 months after surgery. Opening day is 13 months for Vazquez, so IMO, the only way he starts in AAA will be because they don't want him catching more that a few games a week and would like him to DH on the other days, something that won't happen in Boston. But once he's ready to catch 4-5 games a week, he's your catcher. 
 
The real Swihart v Vazquez problem is likely to be a 2017/2018 issue (and that's ONLY IF Swihart improves the defensive skills). Not so much next season. 

 

[jscola85]

Honestly, I'd prefer one of Swihart or Vazquez move back down to AAA. As we have learned this year with all three of Hanigan, Vazquez and Swihart, depth is essential at catcher. There's really no other catching depth to speak of in the minors til you get to Austin Rei in Lowell. So while it seems like catching is a position of strength, there's still nobody ready for 110+ starts a year, and zero minor league depth longer term.

 

[grimshaw]

I just don't see Vazquez or Swihart seeing AAA again.  It's not like a time share at catcher can really hurt, since it keeps both of them a lot fresher.  If Swihart's bat comes around then maybe he sees some 1B time at some point in the future.  You don't stash one of them in AAA just because you're worrying about how to keep Hanigan on the roster.
 
I see it more like how Hatteberg and Varitek started off, splitting games.

 

[AB in DC]

I'm not sure what the debate is here.  We're not going to know until next March whether Vazquez will be able to perform at a major league level.  If so, then that's a good problem to have, right?  If not, that's why we have Swihart and Hanigan.
 
Hanigan is only signed through 2016 (team option for 2017), so presumably it will be Swihart/Vazquez for 2017 and beyond.