Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal 15m15 minutes ago
#Rays line up with teams that need pitchers and can offer hitters. #Cubs, #Rockies qualify, among others.
The Rays have an abundance of controlled pitching which is at it's highest cost now as evidenced by this offseason. The most valuable of their collection and maybe the most valuable pitching asset in baseball in Chris Archer.
Dave Cameron at FG went through a Archer to LA proposal.
Obviously, Archer would cost a ton. Over the summer, I rated him as the 10th most valuable trade asset in baseball, ranking one spot behind Andrew McCutchen. He’s a top-tier pitcher signed to an absurdly team-friendly contract, as he’s guaranteed just $23 million over the next four years, or just $38 million over the next six seasons assuming the two team options are picked up.
Besides Chris Sale, Archer should cost more than any other pitcher in baseball to acquire, and the Dodgers should be prepared to pay an even higher price to extract him from Tampa Bay than what it might cost to get Fernandez from the Marlins.
And yes, that means putting Corey Seager on the table. When I worked through a potential Dodgers-Marlins trade for Fernandez nine days ago, I noted that Seager was worth more than Fernandez by himself, but that’s probably not true of Archer. For the trade value list this summer, Dan Szymborski provided five year ZIPS forecasts for all the guys on the list, Seager and Archer included. Archer’s five year WAR projection put him at +20.9, while Seager projected for +20.3 WAR over the next five years. Both players are actually under team control for six years, and Seager is more likely to be a valuable contributor in 2021 than Archer is, but the expected production during the next half-dozen years should be similar.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/proposing-a-dodgers-trade-for-chris-archer/
The price to trade for 6 years of prime Archer to a division rival would necessarily be astronomical. The Shelby Miller deal makes the market price even worse.
Cameron's proposal was commented upon by in one of Keith Law's chats and he found it to be very light. Theo certainly is going to find out if there's some type of package of Cubs to get Archer but they likely won't do such a deal due to the steadying presence/less of an obvious need due to Arrieta and Lester.
IMHO Sox would be competitive with most offers if they built a package around Devers one of Swihart/Moncada/ Benintendi , Travis and Holt is always useful. Two valuable up the middle MLB pieces in Holt and Swihart for a TB lineup in desperate need of young controllable bats. Devers and Travis both a year or so away. I'm picking Moncada and Benintendi as prefer to keep over the very valuable Swihart and Devers. The rotation for the next 3 years is 1) Price 2) Archer 3) Rodriguez 4) Porcello 5) Buch Buch/injury depth- Kelly ,Owens, Johnson , Wright
Curious to see what packages people would consider offering the Rays. Archer for comparison a much better bet and longer control in comparison to Jose Fernandez.
Edit- another potential bonus to consider is Archer's presence would , one would hope, provide a backstop if/when Price opts out.
#Rays line up with teams that need pitchers and can offer hitters. #Cubs, #Rockies qualify, among others.
The Rays have an abundance of controlled pitching which is at it's highest cost now as evidenced by this offseason. The most valuable of their collection and maybe the most valuable pitching asset in baseball in Chris Archer.
Dave Cameron at FG went through a Archer to LA proposal.
Obviously, Archer would cost a ton. Over the summer, I rated him as the 10th most valuable trade asset in baseball, ranking one spot behind Andrew McCutchen. He’s a top-tier pitcher signed to an absurdly team-friendly contract, as he’s guaranteed just $23 million over the next four years, or just $38 million over the next six seasons assuming the two team options are picked up.
Besides Chris Sale, Archer should cost more than any other pitcher in baseball to acquire, and the Dodgers should be prepared to pay an even higher price to extract him from Tampa Bay than what it might cost to get Fernandez from the Marlins.
And yes, that means putting Corey Seager on the table. When I worked through a potential Dodgers-Marlins trade for Fernandez nine days ago, I noted that Seager was worth more than Fernandez by himself, but that’s probably not true of Archer. For the trade value list this summer, Dan Szymborski provided five year ZIPS forecasts for all the guys on the list, Seager and Archer included. Archer’s five year WAR projection put him at +20.9, while Seager projected for +20.3 WAR over the next five years. Both players are actually under team control for six years, and Seager is more likely to be a valuable contributor in 2021 than Archer is, but the expected production during the next half-dozen years should be similar.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/proposing-a-dodgers-trade-for-chris-archer/
The price to trade for 6 years of prime Archer to a division rival would necessarily be astronomical. The Shelby Miller deal makes the market price even worse.
Cameron's proposal was commented upon by in one of Keith Law's chats and he found it to be very light. Theo certainly is going to find out if there's some type of package of Cubs to get Archer but they likely won't do such a deal due to the steadying presence/less of an obvious need due to Arrieta and Lester.
IMHO Sox would be competitive with most offers if they built a package around Devers one of Swihart/Moncada/ Benintendi , Travis and Holt is always useful. Two valuable up the middle MLB pieces in Holt and Swihart for a TB lineup in desperate need of young controllable bats. Devers and Travis both a year or so away. I'm picking Moncada and Benintendi as prefer to keep over the very valuable Swihart and Devers. The rotation for the next 3 years is 1) Price 2) Archer 3) Rodriguez 4) Porcello 5) Buch Buch/injury depth- Kelly ,Owens, Johnson , Wright
Curious to see what packages people would consider offering the Rays. Archer for comparison a much better bet and longer control in comparison to Jose Fernandez.
Edit- another potential bonus to consider is Archer's presence would , one would hope, provide a backstop if/when Price opts out.