What would Devers fetch in a trade?

grepal

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Jul 20, 2005
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If Raffy and the Sox cannot or will not come to an agreement before the season starts, what type of package would you trade him for and to whom?
Starting with the real contenders in need of an upgrade at third base I see the following as potential partners but trading him to the Yankees would likely be the last of Chaim's options if only to save his own skin.
Starting with the Yankees just for fun here.

The Yankees have a need and intriguing prospects Dominguez, Peraza and Wells
The Mets are spending like crazy for a World Series champ and have a very good catching prospect in Alvarez and a third baseman in Baty who are ready to help now.
Seattle needs an upgrade to try and get further but their best prospects are lower-level players.
The Dodgers have some good players, Cartaya, Pages and Miller.
The Cards have outfields Jordan Miller, and a couple of good pitchers in Graceffo and Liberatore.
The Rays have outfields Taj Braley, pitchers Mead and Montgomery, but I wonder if they are willing to add close to 20 million for 1 year and give up prospects even if it helps them get over the top in their own minds.
Finally, the Phillies have a good young and speedy outfielder in Rojas and three good pitching prospects, Abel, Painter and Mcgarry

I would think the Sox could get at least two high end prospects and a couple of guys worth taking a flyer on if they have to trade Raffy this off season. I don't think we should wait until the deadline if we cannot or will not keep him.
 

NJ_Sox_Fan

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I feel like every trade for a superstar has been underwhelming. Not sure they’d be able to get all that impressive of a return for him.
 

jon abbey

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There is no chance Devers is traded to NY, this site is more likely to get renamed Sons of Ken Phelps than that happening.
 

grepal

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If mentioning the Cardinals as a potential landing spot, you have to include Tink Hence. He could easily be the top pitching prospect my mid-to-late season.
Fair enough. Do you think we can get two high end, upper-level prospects for Raffy?
 

jon abbey

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E5 Yaz

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There is no chance Devers is traded to NY, this site is more likely to get renamed Sons of Ken Phelps than that happening.
Agreed. The Yankees are more likely to sign him as a free agent next season.

When thinking about trading him, though, the return will be dampened by looming free agency.
 

bankshot1

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Most likely not as much as they got for Mookie. The realization of which should hopefully spur the Sox to try their darnedest to retain the guy and their evaporating credibility as a contending team.
 

pdaj

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Fair enough. Do you think we can get two high end, upper-level prospects for Raffy?
It won't be easy, you need one semi-desperate team with a big need. The Mets gave up a top prospect for a rental of Javy Baez in 2021 and regretted it almost immediately, to the point where they were very gunshy about giving up top prospects last deadline:

https://nypost.com/2022/10/06/mets-prospect-hesitation-their-trade-deadline-undoing/
Agreed. The Yankees are more likely to sign him as a free agent next season.

When thinking about trading him, though, the return will be dampened by looming free agency.
For an organization (or two or three) desperate for a title, 2 full seasons of Raffy will likely be considered substantial. (More simply put, two shots at hardware.) Of course, they would likely value his addition somewhat (or considerably) more if it's thought that they have a decent shot at retaining him long-term, even if that involves the competition of FA. It is possible, however, that the Red Sox won't get their best offers for Devers until just before the trade deadline. This part of the season is a lot like the time immediately after your fantasy baseball league's draft. Everyone's feeling pretty proud of their work.

But when it all goes to hell? And owners want results for what they've paid? Motivation for a difference-maker increases substantially. I think that you have to include New York in any discussions, even if you are never intent to deal him there.
 

AlNipper49

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"do you want our not-top-10 player who will very obviously be looking for top-10 money, otherwise we wouldn't be shopping him?". is what 31 other GMs will be thinking when they pick up the phone.

Would have to be a contender. Both the Yanks and the Dodgers are trying to stay under the cap for a reset, so unlikely. The Padres already have a (better) third baseman with free agency looming. The Braves just signed theirs to a 10 year deal. Maybe the Astros would be creative with Bregman under contract for another two years, but that doesn't make a ton of sense as they'd be taking on a ton of risk in 2024 if they can't sign him. Maybe if the Mariners show some life and are desperate. The Mets are the Mets, and they do not have a decent option there, so maybe them?
 
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pdaj

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Most likely not as much as they got for Mookie. The realization of which should hopefully spur the Sox to try their darnedest to retain the guy and their evaporating credibility as a contending team.
The Dodgers traded for less than a 1/2-season of Mookie during a worldwide pandemic. I think Devers, without question, nets more in return.
 

nattysez

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One good place to start with something like this is the up-to-date Fangraphs list as to how they project each team by position:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=3B

It's hard to find a contender both in need and who might do this, maybe Devers for Brandon Crawford and a top prospect?
Brandon Crawford has 10/5 rights, a young family, and he's a Bay Area native. The only way he's approving a trade is if he values playing SS his whole career over playing for the Giants his whole career.
 

bankshot1

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The Dodgers traded for less than a 1/2-season of Mookie during a worldwide pandemic. I think Devers, without question, nets more in return.
Mookie was traded in Feb 2020 (and the decision was made before that) before covid became a pandemic and before thoughts of a 60 game season were ever contemplated. The point is Imo the Sox will likely get a fraction of Devers value, like they received for Mookie. And the low-balling of homegrown stars is starting to irk some of their fans.
Ymmv.
 

simplicio

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The Dodgers also traded for half of Price's albatross contract; the two really aren't comparable.
 

jon abbey

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For an organization (or two or three) desperate for a title, 2 full seasons of Raffy will likely be considered substantial. (More simply put, two shots at hardware.)
Not sure what you mean here, he’s a free agent after 2023.
 

mikcou

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For an organization (or two or three) desperate for a title, 2 full seasons of Raffy will likely be considered substantial. (More simply put, two shots at hardware.) Of course, they would likely value his addition somewhat (or considerably) more if it's thought that they have a decent shot at retaining him long-term, even if that involves the competition of FA. It is possible, however, that the Red Sox won't get their best offers for Devers until just before the trade deadline. This part of the season is a lot like the time immediately after your fantasy baseball league's draft. Everyone's feeling pretty proud of their work.

But when it all goes to hell? And owners want results for what they've paid? Motivation for a difference-maker increases substantially. I think that you have to include New York in any discussions, even if you are never intent to deal him there.
Raffy is a free agent after 2023. No one is getting two seasons from him unless they sign him to a massive deal.
 

JM3

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The problem isn't that they would get "a fraction of Devers value" - the problem is the surplus value of 1 season isn't that high (probably about 3 WAR).

So teams would be right not to trade a ton for the right to pay Devers 1/~$19m & then either watch him walk for a comp pick or pay him a market-value contract.

Just like teams were right not to give up a ton for Mookie/subsidized Price because what those teams were actually buying had negative value. So the Devers package rightfully should be worth more than the Mookie package because it doesn't have the Price ballast, but it still is quite likely not to be a HAUL.
 

tims4wins

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The problem isn't that they would get "a fraction of Devers value" - the problem is the surplus value of 1 season isn't that high (probably about 3 WAR).

So teams would be right not to trade a ton for the right to pay Devers 1/~$19m & then either watch him walk for a comp pick or pay him a market-value contract.

Just like teams were right not to give up a ton for Mookie/subsidized Price because what those teams were actually buying had negative value. So the Devers package rightfully should be worth more than the Mookie package because it doesn't have the Price ballast, but it still is quite likely not to be a HAUL.
If the Sox stapled Sale to him it would be really similar.
 

JM3

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If the Sox stapled Sale to him it would be really similar.
The Red Sox needed to staple Price because their cost structure was all out of wack. They have no reason to staple Sale to anyone right now. Trading Devers would just be a simple admission that they are not willing to pay him what it would take to resign him, & that getting something for him is better than letting him walk for nothing (a comp pick) at the end of the year.
 

Eddie Bressoud

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The Padres might like insurance for possible Machado departure, but not sure we have gotten the best of the Friars in many trades. Will have to be a big money team.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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I feel like every trade for a superstar has been underwhelming. Not sure they’d be able to get all that impressive of a return for him.
Francisco Lindor: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with Carlos Carrasco to the New York Mets for Isaiah Greene (minors), Josh Wolf (minors), Andrés Giménez and Amed Rosario

Even with the lottery picks (Greene & Wolf) not working out so far, Cleveland has gotten more WAR out of this trade each year than New York has.
 

djbayko

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The Dodgers also traded for half of Price's albatross contract; the two really aren't comparable.
I think the Dodgers pretty much knew that they were going to pull out all the stops to re-sign him too. So while they only had control of him for one season, it gave them a huge upper hand.
 

jon abbey

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The Padres might like insurance for possible Machado departure, but not sure we have gotten the best of the Friars in many trades. Will have to be a big money team.
They already have that, Bogaerts to 3B and Kim back to SS, plus they don’t have many prospects left to trade.
 

snowmanny

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They could trade him to a team that is willing to sign him at his asking price. In that case he might have value beyond one season.
 

j-man

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your gm wouild need to be fried if he lets devers go what i dont like about your gm he is acting like u have a 100 mil payroll instead of 240 mil
 

Yelling At Clouds

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The Cubs seem like a real possibility here if they're serious about making their move in the NL Central. But if you want to think outside-the-box, what about Arizona? They’re an up-and-coming team pivoting out of a rebuild with designs on contending soon - even in a brutal division - and they’ve not got a ton of guaranteed salaries (so they could afford to extend him). I don't think you'd get Druw Jones or Jordan Lawlar, though, sorry.
 

BaseballJones

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You'd need to make a trade to a team that is a big market team (so they can re-sign him or extend him) and that has a need at 3b.

Philly might just be the team. Alec Bohm is a decent player: 13 hr, .713 ops, 100 ops+. He's just 26. Could possibly blossom into a pretty good player, but most likely he'll only get marginally better at this point. Still, not a stiff.

For Philly, Devers would represent a HUGE upgrade. For Boston, they could deal Devers and get a top prospect plus a guy who is at least a league average 3b, who still has some room to grow.

I don't know if that would represent a "good" deal for Devers, but it might be the kind of deal that could happen. Helps having Dombrowski there.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Optics of dealing him to Dombrowski and the Phillies seems really bad. I don’t think they’d do it. Honestly, I don’t think they will trade him at all, even if they should.
 

simplicio

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They were also fully cognizant that 2020 was not going to be a normal season.
So cognizant that they started spring training normally before canceling the rest of it March 12th?
The Betts trade happened February 10th. Covid wasn't even officially named COVID-19 until the following day.
 

BigSoxFan

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You'd need to make a trade to a team that is a big market team (so they can re-sign him or extend him) and that has a need at 3b.

Philly might just be the team. Alec Bohm is a decent player: 13 hr, .713 ops, 100 ops+. He's just 26. Could possibly blossom into a pretty good player, but most likely he'll only get marginally better at this point. Still, not a stiff.

For Philly, Devers would represent a HUGE upgrade. For Boston, they could deal Devers and get a top prospect plus a guy who is at least a league average 3b, who still has some room to grow.

I don't know if that would represent a "good" deal for Devers, but it might be the kind of deal that could happen. Helps having Dombrowski there.
I agree with your conclusions but this Phillies idea is giving me Mookie flashbacks and I don’t think this board would survive it. Bohm would be the Verdugo meh offensive player with poor defense and Painter or Abel could be the Downs who doesn’t pan out.
 

HighTek

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Bloom failed to make the leadership trades during the trade deadline, so i am guessing he settles for a 4th round pick next year. would love a teams top pitching prospect and sone high upside low A arms. Do not do another mid mookie deal. Commit to the unpopular Upside prospects that drive boston sports talk raidio insane. please
 

GB5

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If you are committed to selling off Betts and can’t find a suitable trade before the season starts, your best bet may be hoping the Mets go cold the first two months. They are All In, and their fans are expecting a big big year. Maybe a panic trade where we get their two high end prospects?
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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You'd need to make a trade to a team that is a big market team (so they can re-sign him or extend him) and that has a need at 3b.

Philly might just be the team. Alec Bohm is a decent player: 13 hr, .713 ops, 100 ops+. He's just 26. Could possibly blossom into a pretty good player, but most likely he'll only get marginally better at this point. Still, not a stiff.

For Philly, Devers would represent a HUGE upgrade. For Boston, they could deal Devers and get a top prospect plus a guy who is at least a league average 3b, who still has some room to grow.

I don't know if that would represent a "good" deal for Devers, but it might be the kind of deal that could happen. Helps having Dombrowski there.
Not that BTV is the end-all-be-all, but it's a data point, as is the FanGraphs depth charts referred to by Jon Abbey.
BTV has Bohm's median value at 30.6 (with 4 years of control), vs 37.0 for Devers (for 1 year). Which means if the Red Sox trade Devers for Bohm plus, the plus is worth about 6.5. Backing up that value estimate is FanGraphs' depth chart, which projects Bohm for 2.8 WAR (with a close to neutral -1.8 fielding) in 2023; they have Devers at 4.6 WAR (a similar -1.7 fielding). So an upgrade of 1.8 WAR, not nothing, but not "HUGE" either. Not enough to get Bohm as Rafi's replacement plus a top prospect (Abel's BTV median is 26.8, Painter's is 45, and the Phillies don't have any other pitching prospects with a BTV median value over 2).
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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One good place to start with something like this is the up-to-date Fangraphs list as to how they project each team by position:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=3B

It's hard to find a contender both in need and who might do this, maybe Devers for Brandon Crawford and a top prospect?
I mentioned SF in another thread in regards to a Devers trade. Some package of Devers, Verdugo and a prospect for Marco Luciano, who fits the Mayer timeline and is projected to play 3B (or a corner OF spot). Not sure the Giants would trade Luciano (#16 on MLB.com's top 100 prospect list) for 1 year of Devers, but I'd ask. The Giants could move Joc to DH and have a lineup something like: Joc (DH), Correa, Devers, Haniger, Verdugo, JD Davis, Yaz, Crawford (2B), Bart. Not too shabby. Edit: A simpler deal would be Devers for Kyle Harrison (LHP in AA with big stuff).

Another option would be the LAD. Miguel Vargas and Ryan Pepiot for Devers is a nearly dead even match on BTV. Vargas can hit and Pepiot has impressive stuff and this deal would give the Sox two cheap guys on the MLB roster. Not sure the LAD would be interested in dealing their #3 and #6 prospects here, but again, I'd ask.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Trading partner gets what? 5 WAR for $17 million plus a year of exclusive bargaining rights. The latter is probably not worth too much. Maybe $20 million in value coming back? It doesn’t feel like that’s really worth too much pre-season. it becomes potentially worth more mid season for a team that feels it is missing a lefty masher from being a serious contender.
 

ehaz

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I agree with your conclusions but this Phillies idea is giving me Mookie flashbacks and I don’t think this board would survive it. Bohm would be the Verdugo meh offensive player with poor defense and Painter or Abel could be the Downs who doesn’t pan out.
Agree about Bohm/Verdugo but Painter is twice the prospect Downs was. He would be a ridiculous get and probably won't happen.

6'7 19 year old who moved faster through the minors than Marcelo Mayer.

1.56 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 across 103 innings in A/AA.

His control appeared to even improve in AA: 34 K% vs 1.8 BB% (just ~30 innings though).
 

grimshaw

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I don't think the Giants make any sense as a trade partner. They are up against two mega powers, so a year of Devers to mortgage some of that future doesn't seem like a good idea. Correa would be in a window further down the line if they keep building.

The only way I think they'd move him is at the deadline if they are in appreciably worse shape than last season and multiple options open up. Of course if they are appreciably worse than last season Bloom could be really be on the hot seat or not on a seat at all.
 
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