Here's something I've been thinking about as the roster has taken shape.
Since the 2012 team failed to achieve lift off and was broken up, we've been looking forward to opening a new window with a new core. The 2013 team was very good, but unpredictably so — they got career years from a number of players all at once. So 2013 aside, it's been clear for awhile that the window would open during the years of control of Bogaerts, Bradley and Swihart, with Betts' meteoric rise to perhaps the most promising of the group in 2013 and 14 a very welcome surprise.
The Price signing suggests a real emphasis from ownership on contending in 2016, which seems at least credible. The window extends until the pre-arb core of Bogaerts ('20), Bradley ('20), Betts ('21), Rodriguez ('22), Swihart ('21) and now Smith ('21) reach scheduled free agency, and during the contracts of David Price and Dustin Pedroia, with one year of Ortiz and two of Buchholz at the front end. The hope is that Ramirez, Sandoval, Kelly and Porcello will be complementary pieces rather than impediments, and reinforcements should arrive from a farm system that Jim Callis called the best in baseball.
Four or five shots at another World Series title, then. But everyone here is familiar with this team, and where it is on the success cycle. I wanted to start the thread to discuss what's going on with the competition, starting with the AL East, but perhaps expanding around the game. Which other teams are expecting to be good during this projected window?
I'll start, but I don't at all mean to present myself as an authority on the state of the rosters and farm systems of all of these clubs.
Toronto
The Blue Jays are a fascinating contrast. Anthopolous emptied the farm last season to tool up for an exciting playoff run. But now, with Price departed for Boston and Encarnacion and Bautista nearing free agency, it's hard to see how Shapiro will be able to maintain a roster this competitive beyond 2016, unless payroll is going to be considerably higher than we've seen.
They should certainly be part of the pennant hunt in 2016.
2015: 93-69
Key departure: David Price
Tampa Bay
I'm sure where Tampa Bay stands, at all. They have a fantastic rotation, but little beyond it to recommend them. I have heard rumors that they may consider trading from their SP depth with an eye to the future, but I am not sure how much sense that would make. The farm system looks pretty interesting just looking at the rankings, but I'm not familiar enough with their system to have a sense of how impactful some of the coming promotions are likely to be, but Adames and Snell seem very exciting.
2015: 80-82
Baltimore
Machado and Jones are excellent players, but there's not much star power around them. That said, they have a lot of league average-type players and very little in the way of long-term commitments. Gausman and Bundy provide young, high-upside pitching. Even just keeping Davis and Chen in orange would make a big difference in Baltimore for 2016, but would it be enough? The farm is fairly weak apart from Bundy (and he has health questions), so I'm not sure what Duquette will or should do here, apart from extending Machado, which I would have done yesterday if at all possible.
2015: 81-81
Key Departures: Chen, Davis
New York
I've left the Yankees for last because they are the most curious case. They have a roster clogged with the usual aging veterans, but the front office is also clearly taking steps to get younger in the post-Jeter era. There's enviable talent on the roster and some noteworthy prospects in the high minors, and payroll is down somewhat from the recent excesses. From my reading in the Yankees forum, it seems like JA, Wingack and the gang expect NY to stay out of major FA acquisitions until the 2018 off season, when Harper, Kershaw, Keuchel, Harvey, Donaldson, and Richards are among the possibilities.
Do they even have windows in the Bronx?
2015: 87-75
Since the 2012 team failed to achieve lift off and was broken up, we've been looking forward to opening a new window with a new core. The 2013 team was very good, but unpredictably so — they got career years from a number of players all at once. So 2013 aside, it's been clear for awhile that the window would open during the years of control of Bogaerts, Bradley and Swihart, with Betts' meteoric rise to perhaps the most promising of the group in 2013 and 14 a very welcome surprise.
The Price signing suggests a real emphasis from ownership on contending in 2016, which seems at least credible. The window extends until the pre-arb core of Bogaerts ('20), Bradley ('20), Betts ('21), Rodriguez ('22), Swihart ('21) and now Smith ('21) reach scheduled free agency, and during the contracts of David Price and Dustin Pedroia, with one year of Ortiz and two of Buchholz at the front end. The hope is that Ramirez, Sandoval, Kelly and Porcello will be complementary pieces rather than impediments, and reinforcements should arrive from a farm system that Jim Callis called the best in baseball.
Four or five shots at another World Series title, then. But everyone here is familiar with this team, and where it is on the success cycle. I wanted to start the thread to discuss what's going on with the competition, starting with the AL East, but perhaps expanding around the game. Which other teams are expecting to be good during this projected window?
I'll start, but I don't at all mean to present myself as an authority on the state of the rosters and farm systems of all of these clubs.
Toronto
The Blue Jays are a fascinating contrast. Anthopolous emptied the farm last season to tool up for an exciting playoff run. But now, with Price departed for Boston and Encarnacion and Bautista nearing free agency, it's hard to see how Shapiro will be able to maintain a roster this competitive beyond 2016, unless payroll is going to be considerably higher than we've seen.
They should certainly be part of the pennant hunt in 2016.
2015: 93-69
Key departure: David Price
Tampa Bay
I'm sure where Tampa Bay stands, at all. They have a fantastic rotation, but little beyond it to recommend them. I have heard rumors that they may consider trading from their SP depth with an eye to the future, but I am not sure how much sense that would make. The farm system looks pretty interesting just looking at the rankings, but I'm not familiar enough with their system to have a sense of how impactful some of the coming promotions are likely to be, but Adames and Snell seem very exciting.
2015: 80-82
Baltimore
Machado and Jones are excellent players, but there's not much star power around them. That said, they have a lot of league average-type players and very little in the way of long-term commitments. Gausman and Bundy provide young, high-upside pitching. Even just keeping Davis and Chen in orange would make a big difference in Baltimore for 2016, but would it be enough? The farm is fairly weak apart from Bundy (and he has health questions), so I'm not sure what Duquette will or should do here, apart from extending Machado, which I would have done yesterday if at all possible.
2015: 81-81
Key Departures: Chen, Davis
New York
I've left the Yankees for last because they are the most curious case. They have a roster clogged with the usual aging veterans, but the front office is also clearly taking steps to get younger in the post-Jeter era. There's enviable talent on the roster and some noteworthy prospects in the high minors, and payroll is down somewhat from the recent excesses. From my reading in the Yankees forum, it seems like JA, Wingack and the gang expect NY to stay out of major FA acquisitions until the 2018 off season, when Harper, Kershaw, Keuchel, Harvey, Donaldson, and Richards are among the possibilities.
Do they even have windows in the Bronx?
2015: 87-75