When the Patriots Have the Ball: Matchup Discussion and Analysis

[Euclis20]

I was screaming at the TV that they had to test Sherman after the injury.   Just another incredibly bad decision/execution by the Packers in that game.

 
Obviously I'm wrong now, but at the time, it looked to me like he might be exaggerating the injury to bait Rodgers into doing just that.  Their coaching staff doesn't deserve any benefit of the doubt for their performance, but they might've thought the same thing.

 

[rodderick]

Steve Young said today that he feels that the Pats remain vulnerable to the same thing that cost the their past two Super Bowls -- when a team can create pressure on Brady with only four rushers, the Pats struggle.  Young believes that the Seahawks can do that, though it doesn't sound like you guys share his opinion.
 
Separately, LGBT had only 10 catches this year, 6 for the Pats.  I wonder if the Pats could catch the Seahawks off-guard by running a screen or two for Blount.  Running a passing play or two for Blount would make it (slightly) harder for the Seahawks to overcommit on running plays, which could help open some holes.  That said, he may not be a good enough pass catcher for the Pats to feel like they can risk throwing to him.

I wonder if there's a single QB in the history of the game who had no problems when a team could get to him rushing only 4. This is often said about Brady, but it's pretty much universal.

 

[wiffleballhero]

Since the lawyers have taken over the ballghazi thread, I'd be curious to hear from the MDs over here.
 
What are the chances that Thomas is really fully functional with the shoulder? It seems like pain killing is only part of the issue. Isn't he going to have some significant reduction in both range of motion and strength only two weeks in on the injury? Also, isn't he at a high risk of re-injury in a way where he will not just be able to pop it back in and keep playing?
 
I don't think Browner's way of describing the Pats' approach is okay (he sounds like a psycho) but I do wonder if it might be worth pressuring him to see if the Seahawks are bluffing and if Thomas is for real or trying to favor it.
 
It seems like Sherman's injury is minor.

 

[soxfan121]

Since the lawyers have taken over the ballghazi thread, I'd be curious to hear from the MDs over here.
 
What are the chances that Thomas is really fully functional with the shoulder? It seems like pain killing is only part of the issue. Isn't he going to have some significant reduction in both range of motion and strength only two weeks in on the injury? Also, isn't he at a high risk of re-injury in a way where he will not just be able to pop it back in and keep playing?

 
$10

 

[epraz]

I wonder if there's a single QB in the history of the game who had no problems when a team could get to him rushing only 4. This is often said about Brady, but it's pretty much universal.

 
Agreed.  The question is whether the Pats' play-calling and blocking schemes are relatively susceptible to a strong 4-man rush.  

 

[lambeau]

Bruscchi just made an amusing point on SVP's ESPN show about Brady's statement that he watched more film for this game than for any previous game:
he thinks Brady couldn't believe their scheme is so simple--straight Cover 3--so he kept rewatching, certain he'd find something more complex (other than man coverage on 3rd and short).
I like McDaniels' chances figuring ways to free up Vereen, Gronk, and Amendola underneath against the LB's.

 

[Shelterdog]

 
Agreed.  The question is whether the Pats' play-calling and blocking schemes are relatively susceptible to a strong 4-man rush.  

 
Why would it?  
 
I'm telling you this argument that an effective four man rush is Brady's kryptonite is just bizarre.  I've never seen any statistical argument that the Pats are particularly bad against four man rushes.  The Pats have been kicking the crap out of most of the league offensively since 2007 against every sort of pressure out there, including a lot of teams who run mostly four man rushes, and it's just that every now and then teams with a couple of pro bowl or even hall of fame talents in their front four win a game and now it's a weakness? Add to that Neal blowing out an ACL in the 07 Superbowl and Mankins playing the 11 Superbowl with a torn ACL and a torn MCL and it's not surprising that yes, sometimes you play a really good team and they win in the trenches and you lose. 

 

[j44thor]

Why would it?  
 
I'm telling you this argument that an effective four man rush is Brady's kryptonite is just bizarre.  I've never seen any statistical argument that the Pats are particularly bad against four man rushes.  The Pats have been kicking the crap out of most of the league offensively since 2007 against every sort of pressure out there, including a lot of teams who run mostly four man rushes, and it's just that every now and then teams with a couple of pro bowl or even hall of fame talents in their front four win a game and now it's a weakness? Add to that Neal blowing out an ACL in the 07 Superbowl and Mankins playing the 11 Superbowl with a torn ACL and a torn MCL and it's not surprising that yes, sometimes you play a really good team and they win in the trenches and you lose.

I think it is more pressure up the middle than just a four man rush. Pressure off the edge isn't as big a deal so long as he can step up in the pocket. When the interior doesn't hold up is when Brady tends to struggle most. The same can be said of Peyton Manning as well as any other pocket passer that doesn't throw well outside the pocket. Russell Wilson is almost the opposite in that if you bring pressure up the middle he is likely to avoid it and scramble or throw on the run for a big play.

I don't think sea is nearly as good getting pressure up the middle as they are off the edge. Stork could be especially important in this game for that reason.

 

[Super Nomario]

I think it is more pressure up the middle than just a four man rush. Pressure off the edge isn't as big a deal so long as he can step up in the pocket. When the interior doesn't hold up is when Brady tends to struggle most. The same can be said of Peyton Manning as well as any other pocket passer that doesn't throw well outside the pocket. Russell Wilson is almost the opposite in that if you bring pressure up the middle he is likely to avoid it and scramble or throw on the run for a big play.

I don't think sea is nearly as good getting pressure up the middle as they are off the edge. Stork could be especially important in this game for that reason.

I think you're right in general, but the Seahawks bring Bennett inside on obvious passing downs, which could be a problem. If they can stay out of 3rd-and-long, it will neutralize that somewhat. 

 

[Mystic Merlin]

The first few possessions will be interesting.
 
Does SEA come out in its usual Cover 3/Cover 1 base?  Do they put base personnel with Bennett on the end, or nickel with Bennett lined up inside?
 
I bet the Pats will throw a ton of offensive looks at SEA early on to see what they're getting.