At Fenway, at one of the toughest RFs in baseball, JDM's defense isn't something to be concerned about?
I assumed the implication of benching JBJ was Martinez in left, Benintendi in center and leaving Betts in right, at least at Fenway. That was the more common deployment last year versus shifting Betts to CF and putting Martinez in RF.At Fenway, at one of the toughest RFs in baseball, JDM's defense isn't something to be concerned about?
The first game he played in RF at Fenway was a game in early June in which the starting OF was Travis, Benintendi, and Martinez (Vazquez DH, Swihart catching Jalen Beeks). That was a strange one all around but perhaps broke the ice so that Cora was willing to put him out there a few more times. In those other seven games, he was spelling Betts in three of them and Bradley in the other four. Three of the four Bradley sit-outs were vs LHP. And three of them were in September when, possibly, Cora was experimenting with different mixes to prepare for the playoffs and covering for potential injuries that would shuffle the lineup.17 home and 15 away in LF, 8 home and 17 away in RF. They were definitely leaning away from putting him in RF in Fenway, but they didn't avoid it entirely.
Agreed. He's not a butcher by any stretch. His range and arm are both fringe-average at best, but he's not a statue out there, and he usually handles what he gets to.Eye test, to me, he doesn’t look bad out there, going after the ball, catching and throwing. He doesn’t have the speed to cover the ground though, certainly not compared with the regular outfielders.
It's not a problem at allWhy is first base such a problem, with Moreland hitting and fielding so well?
Why all the doom and gloom? They've won 8 out their last 10 games, including a couple of blowouts.Going back to square one after a few weeks: it does look as if the Red Sox had the answer to the second base problem in the minor leagues in Chavis. Don't forget, even an average performance--which he is way ahead of at this point--would mean several more wins than last year. Vazquez is also having a fine season to date. So far, however, first base, and especially center field, remain major problems. Bradley has yet to show that he can perform at an average major league level.
How plausible is this, really? It would be a mark of extreme confidence—to the point of foolishness?—to say “we’d rather have meaningless baseball in April than September” and execute a plan accordingly. If true, it would really be remarkable.Or they figured that after a very long season, they would rather sacrifice a few games in April in order to win a few more games in September and October.
I certainly think they consciously decided to back off in spring training. Their top 3 pitchers going into this season (Sle, Price, Porcello) combined pitched over 1/3rd fewer innings in the spring and each of those pitchers pitched at least 25% fewer. So it looks to me like it wasn't an accident. I think it was likely that the RS figured it would take a couple times through the rotation to get up to speed. Add to that a road heavy schedule with few days off, some batted ball bad luck and I'm sure the results were worse for a longer period of time than the RS expected and hoped. However, I think that the RS are trying to turn on its head the Moneyball approach that you build the team for the regular season and the playoffs are a crap shoot. Rather the RS put together a team they expect to make the playoffs and then have adjusted their strategy to make the playoffs less of a crap shoot.How plausible is this, really? It would be a mark of extreme confidence—to the point of foolishness?—to say “we’d rather have meaningless baseball in April than September” and execute a plan accordingly. If true, it would really be remarkable.
But isn't any money over the 2nd tax threshold the same penalty as far as draft picks and International Signing Money? That seems to be where the Sox have decided they can't afford the penalty..... there's $500K between where they are now and that penalty. Maybe there's a reliever... or a whoever (maybe they need to add an extra OF at the deadline... who knows.... but most likely they're going to be looking to add a reliever IMO) that'll be available making less than $2M salary so they're salary hit will still keep them below the line. I do think they finally have some decent stuff in the mL's to make a trade for a decent BP armI certainly think they consciously decided to back off in spring training. Their top 3 pitchers going into this season (Sle, Price, Porcello) combined pitched over 1/3rd fewer innings in the spring and each of those pitchers pitched at least 25% fewer. So it looks to me like it wasn't an accident. I think it was likely that the RS figured it would take a couple times through the rotation to get up to speed. Add to that a road heavy schedule with few days off, some batted ball bad luck and I'm sure the results were worse for a longer period of time than the RS expected and hoped. However, I think that the RS are trying to turn on its head the Moneyball approach that you build the team for the regular season and the playoffs are a crap shoot. Rather the RS put together a team they expect to make the playoffs and then have adjusted their strategy to make the playoffs less of a crap shoot.
I think that went into their decision in the following cases:
Spring regarding workload
Signing Eovaldi
Not signing Kimbrel in light of luxury tax, using their salary spend more efficiently
Using their best pitchers (starters) in high leverage in the playoffs
And I think come the trading deadline, if the RS are in a position where the playoffs are secure they will be buyers to increase their chances even if it means more luxury tax penalties. However, by doing it at the trading deadline, they can better evaluate:
Whether the team is in a position to win the WS
Where the team needs help
Any money spent is 4x as efficient since pro-rated over ~25% of the year
There is no way to make the the playoffs less of a crap shoot. The Oakland A's swept the Sox in 88 and 90 and then lost the WS in 5 games to the Dodgers and were swept by the Reds. Last year the Sox won 108 games and then went 11and 3 in the post season.I certainly think they consciously decided to back off in spring training. Their top 3 pitchers going into this season (Sle, Price, Porcello) combined pitched over 1/3rd fewer innings in the spring and each of those pitchers pitched at least 25% fewer. So it looks to me like it wasn't an accident. I think it was likely that the RS figured it would take a couple times through the rotation to get up to speed. Add to that a road heavy schedule with few days off, some batted ball bad luck and I'm sure the results were worse for a longer period of time than the RS expected and hoped. However, I think that the RS are trying to turn on its head the Moneyball approach that you build the team for the regular season and the playoffs are a crap shoot. Rather the RS put together a team they expect to make the playoffs and then have adjusted their strategy to make the playoffs less of a crap shoot.
I think that went into their decision in the following cases:
Spring regarding workload
Signing Eovaldi
Not signing Kimbrel in light of luxury tax, using their salary spend more efficiently
Using their best pitchers (starters) in high leverage in the playoffs
And I think come the trading deadline, if the RS are in a position where the playoffs are secure they will be buyers to increase their chances even if it means more luxury tax penalties. However, by doing it at the trading deadline, they can better evaluate:
Whether the team is in a position to win the WS
Where the team needs help
Any money spent is 4x as efficient since pro-rated over ~25% of the year
Pearce is a black hole on offense. Nothing obviously detrimental on defense I’ve seen so far, though.Moreland so far is a totally average player and Pearce is worse.
If every team is doing it, how does it improve anyone's odds?Sure you can and every team makes it less than a crap shot. That doesn't mean you roll 7s every time, just that you improve your odds.
Well, the Sox don't have any Bagwell-type prospects to trade for a rental and they aren't willing to pay the luxury taxes it would take to bring back Kimbrel. It would have been better for both Kimbrel and Sox fans if he had accepted the QO.Sure you can and every team makes it less than a crap shot. That doesn't mean you roll 7s every time, just that you improve your odds.
And it's just not adjusting during the playoffs, it's roster construction, regular season usage, etc.
For example, let's say the RS right now have 25 million left in their budget including luxury tax. Well they could have used it up by signing Kimbrel if he would accept a 1 year deal now. Alternatively, they can absorb 4-5 players in July who are in the last year of their deals making 15-25 million from a team looking to save $p. In addition, by July they should be able to identify the areas they need help due to performance or injury. (And I understand that there might not be 5 such players, I am using it as an example)
The point is that some teams manage to push the odds in their favor more than others.If every team is doing it, how does it improve anyone's odds?
I assume you mean additional luxury taxes since the RS already pay luxury taxes. If Kimbrel accepted the QO, they would have to pass on Eovaldi or pay additional luxury taxes. So the QO only mitigates luxury taxes for 2020 and beyond.Well, the Sox don't have any Bagwell-type prospects to trade for a rental and they aren't willing to pay the luxury taxes it would take to bring back Kimbrel. It would have been better for both Kimbrel and Sox fans if he had accepted the QO.
So, like 2004?This is a WC team if sale isn’t a cy young pitcher. If sale isn’t one of the best starters in the league we have one of the weaker rotations of al playoff contenders. This is a good team but i don’t think we will win the division
Way different time and scenario. Being a wild card team means you have an extra round to get through now, and that round is a 50/50 one game scenario.So, like 2004?
I don't think JBJ is actually a.... "hole".... myself. He's looking like he's turning a corner (yes, yes I know.....). With Moreland out, assuming Chavis at 2nd, it's a very solid lineup. Without Moreland it's a weak spot, but all teams have weak spots in the lineups and do fine.YOu have a ton of faith ion JBJ to say 2b is is the only hole.
Too much talent to finish at .500. And the bullpen really shortens up once you hit October I agree. Barnes has the potential to be a real game changer in the playoffs and Walden has shown the ability to go 2 or 3 innings at a time. Couple that with the roving starters and I think you’ll be in decent shape. I definitely think the bullpen needs to be supplemented in some fashion, whether by addition or just guys pitching better, but I don’t think it’s a festering trash fire either.I don't think JBJ is actually a.... "hole".... myself. He's looking like he's turning a corner (yes, yes I know.....). With Moreland out, assuming Chavis at 2nd, it's a very solid lineup. Without Moreland it's a weak spot, but all teams have weak spots in the lineups and do fine.
The only realistic spot I see where the Sox can improve (due to 2nd tax threshold appearing to be a hard cap) is somehow unloading Nunez remaining contract and picking up a cost controlled reliever by sweetening the deal by adding one of the few good chips the Sox have (Darwinzon? Dalbec? Durran?). I also have no idea at all how realistic this is or who that CCR could be.
This all said..... the team is still constructed to win the World Series. We know we have two potential aces and 3 other starters that can dominate. A lineup that can mash from top to bottom when everyone is dialed in. A dominant BP ace and two very good compliments (and to me, again... that's all that's truly needed in a winning playoff run). They're good enough as constructed to get to the playoffs and to potentially repeat WS. Guys just gotta freaking play better!
Why is Sale out of the LDS rotation due to pitching the WC game? Barring rainouts messing with the schedule, there's typically an off-day between the WC game and LDS game 1, plus an off-day between games 2 and 3. That would allow whoever starts the WC game to come back on regular rest to pitch Game 3 of the LDS.Right now the Red Sox enter October with Sale having pitched the WC play-in and Eovaldi probably in the pen. That’s Price, Porcello and Rodriguez starting a five game series against (in all probability) the Yankees, Houston or Minnesota (hopefully, or a rejuvenated Cleveland).
Looks an awful lot like the same field they were playing on last season, and they managed to get by just fine.A quick look at luxury tax payroll shows the Yankees at $25M under the Red Sox. (Please correct).
Thinking the Yankees will not pick up a quality Toronto starter (or Keuchel) for the post season run is questionable. Combine a rotation of Tanaka, Severino, German, Happ and ???? with that bullpen (with one or two of the starters in the pen)...and Houston is in trouble .
Right now the Red Sox enter October with Sale having pitched the WC play-in and Eovaldi probably in the pen. That’s Price, Porcello and Rodriguez starting a five game series against (in all probability) the Yankees, Houston or Minnesota (hopefully, or a rejuvenated Cleveland).
Is that a realistic scenario, and can anyone prevent a (probable) Houston/NY Championship Series? Of course...baseball...anything can happen. I’m addressing likelihood.
That’s the field the Red Sox are playing on.
Our futility with RISP the past 30+ days is one of the reasons we have not gained ground on NYY/Tampa
Also a factor in not gaining any ground in the standings:
Our record vs teams above .500/playoff teams
(this does not include todays game 1 loss)
I'm totally fine with this! We have plenty of guys teams might be interested in if not desperate for (say someone like Price). I’d prefer we get back in it – and might since we’re somehow only 7 games out despite everything – but if not, selling high to restock the farm seems like an easy option given the team has plenty of young talent to rebound next year, especially if Mookie is resigned. And dumping salaries as part of selling this year will help that. Another month of suckage and I say let the bidding begin for Price, Porcello, JBJ, ERod, Moreland, Barnes, etc and maybe even JDThe Sox are going to be sellers if...
Fucking Christ. I know they're struggling at the moment, and against division/league rivals no less, but "terrible" is not a word that should be used to describe a team that is 34-32 and a game out of a wildcard spot. Mediocre, disappointing, scuffling...those are appropriate descriptors. Saying they're terrible reeks of entitlement the likes of which we used to mock in MFY fans.The Sox are going to be sellers if we cant beat any team that is above .500. And if the past few weeks have been any indication, we will most likely know Our fate by the end of June. Thankfully we didn’t blow past the luxury tax again, since the BP isn’t our only issue nor is it the only reason why the Sox are terrible.
Could be a solid plan but it's starting to feel like a buyer's market right now. Cleveland, San Francisco, Toronto, Rangers, and Mets all have pretty decent pieces to sell.I'm totally fine with this! We have plenty of guys teams might be interested in if not desperate for (say someone like Price). I’d prefer we get back in it – and might since we’re somehow only 7 games out despite everything – but if not, selling high to restock the farm seems like an easy option given the team has plenty of young talent to rebound next year, especially if Mookie is resigned. And dumping salaries as part of selling this year will help that. Another month of suckage and I say let the bidding begin for Price, Porcello, JBJ, ERod, Moreland, Barnes, etc and maybe even JD
Edit note: Sorry Tyrone, I didn't see your similar post while I was working on mine