Where to go from here

[Stitch01]

As depressing as things are tonight, the Pats are 2-2 at the quarter pole and still very much in control of their own destiny in the AFC Least. Since there's no game ball thread for obvious reasons, what would you like to see adjusted/kept going forward? Some quick thoughts:

--more commitment to Ridley and the power run game. Might not always work, and not ideal for the modern NFL, but this team is dead on third and seven or longer and ran the ball pretty damn well last year with similar OL personnel. Let's give it more of a shot and build the game plans off of that, he's more effective than Vereen right now IMO. Thought they gave up on running too easily the last two games.

--play some more Cannon at tackle. Still too early to write off Solder, but he's played badly. Might need to decide whether to sign Cannon this offseason.

--keep the interior line from tonight. In a couple of weeks decide whether to trade for an interior OL.

--Nuke Jordan Devey from orbit just to be sure his mere existence isn't causing the suck. Consider kidnapping Dante Scarnecchias loved ones and holding them hostage until he returns to the sidelines.

--more aggressive 4th down decisions. Moving the ball is hard for this team, when you have a chance for seven instead of three or short 4th downs in midfield, go for it. Play to win. Pressures the Pats defense more, but that defense has to carry the load for this team to be successful.

--play Dobson, reduce Amendola's role. Dobson is really the only young WR who has shown flashes of potential and is less duplicative than Amendola. Let's give it a crack for a couple of games. If Dobson has nothing, try Tyms if he's on the practice squad.

--Alternatively, deactivate Tim Wright and his four snaps a game and go with more wideouts.

--evaluate of there is a blocking TE that can upgrade Hooman. He's not a great blocker and has been non existent in the passing game. Might rather have Matt Mulligan back.

--more two back sets on third down with White and Vereen chipping pass rushers. Or even more Ridley and Develin two back sets. Throw to the backs more, take advantage of Brady's decision making ability and reduce the reliance on his poor downfield accuracy.

--more press man with Browner back. I get they are varying coverages, but it's where Revis is most comfortable and they have a great safety. Run it out the majority of snaps, if beat for too many big plays adjust.

--more Michael Buchanan. He looked OK preseason and they're going to run Jones and Nink into the ground again otherwise. Jones isn't great on run downs anyways.

 

[nazz45]

--more press man with Browner back. I get they are varying coverages, but it's where Revis is most comfortable and they have a great safety. Run it out the majority of snaps, if beat for too many big plays adjust.

 
You can run zone coverage and still press - in fact, that's part of what makes Seattle's Cover 3 so effective (besides the awesome that is Earl Thomas). It's difficult to make snap judgements from the broadcast, but it does seem like Revis is playing off coverage more than one would have thought. I understand there are certain downs and distances that dictate the coverage and techniques employed by the corners, but Revis is at his best pressing at the line of scrimmage, whether he's jamming or mirroring, not playing off or bailing right into zone.
 
Of course, the real culprit is the non-existent pass rush. When Alex Smith has not only the cleanest pockets imaginable but also passing lanes a school bus could drive through, it doesn't matter what you are doing coverage wise - eventually, receivers will get open.
 
Finding a couple of interior rushers for their nickel/dime packages would be a great start - not sure Easley is even close to being a positive in that area yet.

 

[Stitch01]

Yup meant to write take more chances blitzing. I'll take my chances with the secondary making plays the time the blitzes get there over rushing four, never getting there, and having Smith hit an easy throw against soft coverage like on the first drive of the game. Thought the Pats has more varied rushes the first three games than they had tonight, but would have to rewatch.

I personally think I underrated how important Siliga is to this run defense as well. Vellano and Chris Jones are pretty bad.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Sign Incognito. Would be a massive O Line upgrade over Fleming and let's face it this group needs some bullying.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

I thought I saw them blitzing more than usual last night. It seemed every time Mayo would blitz he would get jammed at that line along with the usual 4 rushers. Perplexing and worrisome.

 

[Super Nomario]

Yup meant to write take more chances blitzing. I'll take my chances with the secondary making plays the time the blitzes get there over rushing four, never getting there, and having Smith hit an easy throw against soft coverage like on the first drive of the game. Thought the Pats has more varied rushes the first three games than they had tonight, but would have to rewatch.

Who are you going to blitz though? The KC TEs and RBs killed them all day long in the passing game; if you take a defender out of the underneath area, it's just going to get worse. The fact is that if this pass rush can't get pressure with four against KC's crappy O-line, this team is going nowhere.
 

I personally think I underrated how important Siliga is to this run defense as well. Vellano and Chris Jones are pretty bad.

I didn't think Wilfork looked great last night either. And they just exposed Chandler Jones; attacking him seemed to be part of the game plan. The D could not do anything last night. I couldn't even tell what the game plan was. In years past, they'd take away KC's biggest weapon, presumably Charles. But he carved them up at will. They didn't shut down Bowe. They didn't shut down the TEs. They didn't shut down the run. Smith was 2 of 3 for 60 yards on deep balls. They didn't get any pressure or any turnovers. They literally did nothing well last night against a pretty bad offense.

 

[Stitch01]

Did they bring any secondary pressure tonight or blitz Collins? Maybe they did and it went nowhere.

I didn't think Wilfork looked great either. Siliga looked better until he got hurt and was playing in the middle more than Vince. Jones point is fair too.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

As I wrote in the game thread, last night shook me big time.  I've never been an alarmist when it comes to the Pats, but that loss was different.  I'm trying not to overreact to it, and obviously they are not THAT bad, but it is hard not to look at the team out there right now and not see some huge issues, and quite frankly I am not sure if they are fixable.
 
Focusing on the offense for a minute, the unit has been a complete failure on all fronts with the exception of Julian Edelman (and Gronk who is clearly not 100% so I am willing to give him a partial pass).  As has been much discussed the line is piss poor, Brady is skittish as a result and making poor decisions and poor throws.  It is cliché but they have nobody who can challenge the defense down the field (and maybe Brady can't make those throws anymore anyway) so the defense only has to defend a small area of the field.  And in order to score points they need long, sustained drives since they can only get yards in small chunks.  They just don't have enough talent on offense to sustain those kinds of drives right now.
 
A couple of things I'd like to see them try: 
 
1.  commit to running the ball with Ridley more.  Not Vereen, who has developed a bad habit of dancing too much.  Run the guy had 1200 yards two years ago and is, by far, the best RB on the roster.  I thought they actually ran it OK last night when they tried it.  This should help slow down the pass rush a bit as well.
 
2.  Give Thompkins and Dobson a shot.  How much worse can it be?  Amendola is invisible.  LaFell had a good game last night but he's another possession/short yardage type guy.  Thompkins and Dobson both showed flashes last year, even if they were inconsistent.  Have they really fallen so far off the map that neither can get on the field now?

 

[Stitch01]

They actually did pretty well on first down, both on the ground and through the air.  They were terrible on 2nd down, and yeah, running Ridley on some of those seems like a good idea.
 
Also agree with giving Dobson/Thompkins some of Wright and Amendola's snaps.  Wright is pretty useless right now.

 

[ivanvamp]

Not that I have a clue, but here's what I would do….
 
Offense
1.  Commit to a power running game.  I think eventually the pendulum will swing back to this being in vogue, as defenses get smaller and faster trying to combat Madden-style passing games.  Hammer the crap out of people.  I think power run blocking will be easier for Stork and Fleming to adjust to as well.  Plus, power running gives teams an attitude.
 
2.  Set up the play-action.  If the power running game works, then throwing becomes much easier.  
 
3.  Lots of quick throws.  In the early 2000s, Brady was most effective with a short, controlled passing game.  I know he doesn't throw a great deep ball, so while it's ok to take a shot or two every game, he should be throwing lots of crossing routes 8-15 yards downfield.  Short, controlled, high-percentage throws.
 
4.  Play KT and Dobson over Amendola.  I am finally there.  I think Amendola has talent, but he has produced absolutely nothing for this team.  It seems like whenever he does make a catch there's a penalty.  Move the other two guys up the depth chart.  LaFell looked very good last night, which was a positive.  I still think a receiving corps of a healthy Gronk, Edelman, KT, Dobson, and LaFell could be solid.  Gronk is looking better, IMO.
 
 
Defense
1.  Play press coverage.  Get Dennard and Browner back.  Use Revis, Browner, and Dennard in the way that maximizes their strengths - press coverage.  All three are physical corners who can punish receivers.  Let them do it.  Use Ryan and McCourty as center fielders.
 
2.  Dial up the blitz.  It's discouraging watching Alex Smith sit in the pocket all day long and pick apart soft pass coverage.  Unleash Hightower and Collins on the pass rush.  Get creative.  
 
 
 
 
 
Note:  By the way, it's interesting to note that last night, it felt like Smith had all day to throw while Brady was rushed all night.  Here are some numbers:
 
Sacks
NE - 2
KC - 3
 
QB Hits
NE - 3
KC - 2
 
I couldn't find "QB Pressure" numbers from last night, so maybe there really was a lot more pressure on Brady than on Smith, but the numbers above don't bear it out.  Interesting...

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Charlie Weis just got fired. Would it make sense to try bring him back? They need to go back to running something like the 2000-2001 offense. Patience, running, ball control, short passing.

 

[DJnVa]

How about we not run Vereen to the short side of the field on 2nd and 4? I'll take that for a start.

 

[Jnai]

Charlie Weis just got fired. Would it make sense to try bring him back? They need to go back to running something like the 2000-2001 offense. Patience, running, ball control, short passing.

 
2000 was 15 years ago. The game is absurdly different.

 

[Super Nomario]

Not that I have a clue, but here's what I would do….
 
Offense
1.  Commit to a power running game.  I think eventually the pendulum will swing back to this being in vogue, as defenses get smaller and faster trying to combat Madden-style passing games.  Hammer the crap out of people.  I think power run blocking will be easier for Stork and Fleming to adjust to as well.  Plus, power running gives teams an attitude.
 
2.  Set up the play-action.  If the power running game works, then throwing becomes much easier.  
 
3.  Lots of quick throws.  In the early 2000s, Brady was most effective with a short, controlled passing game.  I know he doesn't throw a great deep ball, so while it's ok to take a shot or two every game, he should be throwing lots of crossing routes 8-15 yards downfield.  Short, controlled, high-percentage throws.

The problem is that they did this against Minnesota and Oakland and the offense still looked like shit. They didn't run the ball a lot last night, but they looked bad when they did until garbage time. I don't see any evidence that this team would be effective in a ground-and-pound attack.

 

[DJnVa]

The problem is that they did this against Minnesota and Oakland and the offense still looked like shit. They didn't run the ball a lot last night, but they looked bad when they did until garbage time. I don't see any evidence that this team would be effective in a ground-and-pound attack.

 
Ridley looked fine running the ball. He only got 5 carries though. My favorite sequences were the 2 times Ridley ripped off 6 plus yards on first down and then they went to Vereen into the line or the pass.

 

[jsinger121]

Charlie Weis just got fired. Would it make sense to try bring him back? They need to go back to running something like the 2000-2001 offense. Patience, running, ball control, short passing.

 
They are too cheap to pay someone like Charlie Weis.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

 
2000 was 15 years ago. The game is absurdly different.

True. Doesn't mean I can't grasp at straws.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
Ridley looked fine running the ball. He only got 5 carries though. My favorite sequences were the 2 times Ridley ripped off 6 plus yards on first down and then they went to Vereen into the line or the pass.

It's not just last night. Ridley's averaging 3.6 YPC this year. He has two runs of 10 or more yards. The Patriots don't have a 20-yard run this year. This is not a good running team.

 

[bankshot1]

Barring a miracle, the Pats offense is what it is, and is not going to score a lot of points. Sure maybe a better running game can be developed, or KT or Dobson get some playing time and contribute more than Amendola, but If the team is to have a modest degree of success, (win the div) the defense is going to have to play a lot closer to expectations than they did last night. That was the shocker to me.

 

[DJnVa]

It's not just last night. Ridley's averaging 3.6 YPC this year. He has two runs of 10 or more yards. The Patriots don't have a 20-yard run this year. This is not a good running team.

 
Granted. But last night he looked good early, and I would have liked to have seen more of that.

 

[tims4wins]

I figured this team would have to win some ugly games in the first half of the year while the offense came along - Gronk and Dobson getting fully integrated, the OL finding the right combination, etc. Kind of like last week's win.
 
But when the D gets shredded this team has no chance to compete.

 

[Toe Nash]

 
Ridley looked fine running the ball. He only got 5 carries though. My favorite sequences were the 2 times Ridley ripped off 6 plus yards on first down and then they went to Vereen into the line or the pass.

Yeah, this was very frustrating.
 
On offense, I think things will improve. They seem to be nearing a tenable line situation. Brady had a decent amount of time most of the time last night. He just needs to realize this, settle down and throw to the open man. The tackles should be fine, really -- I can't see them going from above average to terrible overnight.
 
If the offense is too complicated for Amendola, KT and Dobson, maybe the offense should be simplified. It's not working now and hasn't really worked the past few years when it matters most. Too many trick plays, too many cute plays that go nowhere. The deep pass on the first series was a good example. It was so important to start the game strong, they had a solid run for 4 yards and then a prayer to Edelman, which left them with 3rd and 6 and giving the ball right back.
 
The defensive performance yesterday was piss-poor, but again, the talent is far better than they showed. They played better last year with important guys hurt and have played better this year as well. Getting Browner and / or Dennard back will be important as Ryan has been very bad (how he continued to chase the wrong guy for so long on the Knile Davis run was the most perplexing play last night). Wilfork is concerning as he hasn't gotten much push at all. I hope they do not stick with him too long before trying other options -- he still played 55 of 65 snaps last night.
 
Finally, maybe the Chiefs aren't that bad, HomeRunBaker's idiotic proclamations notwithstanding. They beat a lot of NFL teams last year and they have an excellent home-field advantage. For a long time not too long ago they rarely lost at home.

 

[ivanvamp]

The problem is that they did this against Minnesota and Oakland and the offense still looked like shit. They didn't run the ball a lot last night, but they looked bad when they did until garbage time. I don't see any evidence that this team would be effective in a ground-and-pound attack.

 
I think adding Stork and Fleming will help in this regard.  It will help their development as well.  I think it's easier to run block than pass block.  I think you stick with it.

 

[Carmine Hose]

What's most befuddling is the team made significant personnel upgrades in terms of new players, and returning injured starters, and they have gotten worse performances over the prior year.
 
What happens when the current players start dropping like flies as they always do on this team?

 

[Stitch01]

 
They are too cheap to pay someone like Charlie Weis.

I lol'd.  Come on man.
 

What's most befuddling is the team made significant personnel upgrades in terms of new players, and returning injured starters, and they have gotten worse performances over the prior year.
 
What happens when the current players start dropping like flies as they always do on this team?

Its going to be funny in a twisted sort of way when this is the year they finally stay healthy.

 

[DJnVa]

Oh, I can't wait til December and we look back at this and laugh because they're drilling everyone.
 
 
 
Right?

 

[DJnVa]

Any chance BB does the whole "bury the game ball" thing for this one? Or do you make them watch the tape over and over?

 

[ifmanis5]

Where do we go from here? .... Down to the lake I fear.

 

[Toe Nash]

Any chance BB does the whole "bury the game ball" thing for this one? Or do you make them watch the tape over and over?

Just watch the tape of the 48-yard Knile Davis run where all but one player missed the handoff and followed the wrong runner. Over and over.

 

[Bongorific]

IV hit a lot points I mentioned in the game thread. This team had a lot of success late last year getting back to power running and play action. I think the current RB core can do that just as well as Blount. Yes, it fizzled in the Denver playoff game but that was without Gronk. Power run, play action, seam routes, a couple of deep shots.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

It's not just last night. Ridley's averaging 3.6 YPC this year. He has two runs of 10 or more yards. The Patriots don't have a 20-yard run this year. This is not a good running team.

 
This team has proven over the last handful of years - both pre-game planning as well as coming out at halftime - to have some very questionable play calling. I don't think there's any harm in asking, "why not adjust during the game?"
 
Ridley had runs of 6, 2, 7, 5, and 8 yards. The first 4 of those carries came with enough time for the game to be in reach. He may not rip off big 20 yard gains, but nobody is going to with this line.
 
If we're going to give Brady slack ("he's done it before, he can right the ship!") why aren't we willing to do the same with a 1200+ yard rusher? He hasn't fumbled the football this year which, by the way people were talking, I was expecting him to have at least 13 fumbles so far. He was averaging 5+ yards a pop. Why weren't we using him?
 
I heard a clip on the radio yesterday from the Pats/Raiders pre-game where McDaniels asked Belichick, "you want to run or pass this game?" To which Belichick responded, "Run." We saw them run the ball 32 times. I thought this was bizarre because, as the game dragged on, it became obvious that the Raiders were keying on the run and the Patriots needed to focus on the passing game. It is fair to assume that conversation happened again this week, and the answer was "pass", which is why they threw the ball on all 3 plays to start their first drive and only had Vereen/Ridley run the ball 13 times before the game got out of hand. If this team is so inflexible that they are going to stay true to their game plan without making any adjustments to what the defense gives them, then that is a serious problem and needs to be changed. Like, right now.

 

[JerBear]

 
I heard a clip on the radio yesterday from the Pats/Raiders pre-game where McDaniels asked Belichick, "you want to run or pass this game?" To which Belichick responded, "Run." We saw them run the ball 32 times. I thought this was bizarre because, as the game dragged on, it became obvious that the Raiders were keying on the run and the Patriots needed to focus on the passing game. It is fair to assume that conversation happened again this week, and the answer was "pass", which is why they threw the ball on all 3 plays to start their first drive and only had Vereen/Ridley run the ball 13 times before the game got out of hand. If this team is so inflexible that they are going to stay true to their game plan without making any adjustments to what the defense gives them, then that is a serious problem and needs to be changed. Like, right now.

I'm wondering if their confidence in the OLine is tied to this.  Is it possible that the interior linemen they have just aren't good enough in one or the other and they are selecting the actives based on game plan rather than overall skill?  If so that's more a problem with BB the GM and/or Gugs the OL coach.
 
Throwing anything against a wall I can find.

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah, this was my issue last night
 
2nd and 6: incomplete deep ball after first down pass
2nd and 8: 8 yard pass to LaFell after first down run
2nd and 4: Vereen for 0 after first down run for 6 by Ridley
2nd and 3: 7 yard pass to Edelman
2nd and 10: 7 yard pass to Vereen
2nd and 8: inc pass to Edelman
2nd and 3: inc pass to Ridley
2nd and 6: inc deep pass to Edelman
2nd and 7: strip sack
2nd and 5: INT
 
Then its 27-0 so who cares, but 10 second downs, most from reasonable distances, they know the offense is going to struggle blocking on third and long, and they run the ball once.  Ridley gets the ball zero times.  I think they ran back to back running plays one time before the game is lost.  Im probably about as pass happy an NFL fan as you'll find, but that's not balanced enough with this personnel and turned a lot of decent first down pickups into third and long.

 

[mascho]

I'm wondering if their confidence in the OLine is tied to this.  Is it possible that the interior linemen they have just aren't good enough in one or the other and they are selecting the actives based on game plan rather than overall skill?  If so that's more a problem with BB the GM and/or Gugs the OL coach.
 
Throwing anything against a wall I can find.

 
So are they. That's the heart of the problem. This is an offense without an identity right now. 

 

[Super Nomario]

This team has proven over the last handful of years - both pre-game planning as well as coming out at halftime - to have some very questionable play calling. I don't think there's any harm in asking, "why not adjust during the game?"

How is this proven? They've been top 3 in points every year since 2010 (not this year, obviously).
 

Ridley had runs of 6, 2, 7, 5, and 8 yards. The first 4 of those carries came with enough time for the game to be in reach. He may not rip off big 20 yard gains, but nobody is going to with this line.
 
If we're going to give Brady slack ("he's done it before, he can right the ship!") why aren't we willing to do the same with a 1200+ yard rusher? He hasn't fumbled the football this year which, by the way people were talking, I was expecting him to have at least 13 fumbles so far. He was averaging 5+ yards a pop. Why weren't we using him?
 
I heard a clip on the radio yesterday from the Pats/Raiders pre-game where McDaniels asked Belichick, "you want to run or pass this game?" To which Belichick responded, "Run." We saw them run the ball 32 times. I thought this was bizarre because, as the game dragged on, it became obvious that the Raiders were keying on the run and the Patriots needed to focus on the passing game. It is fair to assume that conversation happened again this week, and the answer was "pass", which is why they threw the ball on all 3 plays to start their first drive and only had Vereen/Ridley run the ball 13 times before the game got out of hand. If this team is so inflexible that they are going to stay true to their game plan without making any adjustments to what the defense gives them, then that is a serious problem and needs to be changed. Like, right now.

They did adjust a little in the Oakland game - in the first half, they ran 15 times, passed 11 on 1st/2nd down; in the 3rd/4th they rushed 11, passed 13 (not counting kneel-downs). Ultimately they dropped back to pass 38 times and ran 29, not counting the final clock-killing drive. That's pretty balanced. And they still sucked.
 
And to be clear: my issue isn't with Ridley. I think he's been fine. I think the issue is the OL can't run block any better than they can pass block.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

How is this proven? They've been top 3 in points every year since 2010 (not this year, obviously).

 
The Patriots have not been great in the first quarter (pre-game plan) or third quarter (half time adjustments) for the last three years.
 
Points per quarter
 
2014
1st Quarter - 5 points
2nd Quarter - 8.5 points
3rd Quarter - 2.5 points
4th Quarter - 4 points
 
2013
1st Quarter - 5 points
2nd Quarter - 6.3 points
3rd Quarter - 5.2 points
4th Quarter - 11.4 points
 
2012
1st Quarter - 6.8 points
2nd Quarter - 10.9 points
3rd Quarter - 6.5 points
4th Quarter - 9.5 points
 
The 1st and 3rd quarter are easily their worst quarters in 2012 and 2013, and by the end of the year, I think you'll see the numbers follow suit again. They have not had great game-planning. 

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

And, to add to the numbers above, keep in mind that 2012 was McDaniels first year back at the helm for the Patriots. The numbers before McDaniels came back did not bear out the pattern shown above.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
The Patriots have not been great in the first quarter (pre-game plan) or third quarter (half time adjustments) for the last three years.
 
Points per quarter
 
2014
1st Quarter - 5 points
2nd Quarter - 8.5 points
3rd Quarter - 2.5 points
4th Quarter - 4 points
 
2013
1st Quarter - 5 points
2nd Quarter - 6.3 points
3rd Quarter - 5.2 points
4th Quarter - 11.4 points
 
2012
1st Quarter - 6.8 points
2nd Quarter - 10.9 points
3rd Quarter - 6.5 points
4th Quarter - 9.5 points
 
The 1st and 3rd quarter are easily their worst quarters in 2012 and 2013, and by the end of the year, I think you'll see the numbers follow suit again. They have not had great game-planning. 

 
Significantly more points are scored leaguewide in 2nd and 4th quarters in general.  There might be something here still but just comparing the raw quarter figures - rather than those figures vis-a-vis league average - doesn't tell you that much.

 

[TomRicardo]

 
2000 was 15 years ago. The game is absurdly different.

 
But then why the hell are you playing LaFell, Amendola, Gronkswki, and Edelman each play?  None of them take advantage of the rule changes between then and now.
 
You are better with Dobson and Thompkins.  Have them stretch the field and play under with Gronk, Edelman, LaFell, Wright, and/or Vereen.  Or run the ball with Ridley.  Good god.  Why is Amendola on this team?

 

[Stitch01]

1st and 3rd quarters are the worst on average league wide because of clock rules and halftime/end game.  '13 3rd to 4th quarter is the only real outlier there.

 

[TomRicardo]

 
Significantly more points are scored leaguewide in 2nd and 4th quarters in general.  There might be something here still but just comparing the raw quarter figures - rather than those figures vis-a-vis league average - doesn't tell you that much.

 
That is because the ball is already moving.  You most likely start the second and fourth quarters in better field position.  Also teams are more likely to use their time outs then meaning more possessions per a quarter (there is also the 2 minute warning)

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
Significantly more points are scored leaguewide in 2nd and 4th quarters in general.  There might be something here still but just comparing the raw quarter figures - rather than those figures vis-a-vis league average - doesn't tell you that much.

 
While that is true, since Brady went down in 2008, the team has never followed that script. While their second quarter is always the higest scoring (league trend), the 1st/3rd/4th quarters were always interchangeable. 
 
2011
1st Quarter - 5.5 points
2nd Quarter - 9.9 points
3rd Quarter - 8.4 points
4th Quarter -  8.4 points
 
2010
1st Quarter - 6.2 points
2nd Quarter - 8.9 points
3rd Quarter - 8.6 points
4th Quarter -  7.8 points
 
2009
1st Quarter - 5.8 points
2nd Quarter - 11.2 points
3rd Quarter - 4.5 points
4th Quarter -  4.4 points
 
The same can't be said since McDaniels came on board. There is a real trend line since 2012, but there is not one prior to his arrival.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

1st and 3rd quarters are the worst on average league wide because of clock rules and halftime/end game.  '13 3rd to 4th quarter is the only real outlier there.

 
Also, the 1st and 3rd quarters nearly always start with the ball around the offensive 20 - not a promising place from which to score points.  2nd and 4th quarters can start with the ball just about anywhere, including the defensive red zone.

 

[Toe Nash]

 
While that is true, since Brady went down in 2008, the team has never followed that script. While their second quarter is always the higest scoring (league trend), the 1st/3rd/4th quarters were always interchangeable. 
 
2011
1st Quarter - 5.5 points
2nd Quarter - 9.9 points
3rd Quarter - 8.4 points
4th Quarter -  8.4 points
 
2010
1st Quarter - 6.2 points
2nd Quarter - 8.9 points
3rd Quarter - 8.6 points
4th Quarter -  7.8 points
 
2009
1st Quarter - 5.8 points
2nd Quarter - 11.2 points
3rd Quarter - 4.5 points
4th Quarter -  4.4 points
 
The same can't be said since McDaniels came on board. There is a real trend line since 2012, but there is not one prior to his arrival.

Probably because they were often way ahead in the 4th quarter.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
While that is true, since Brady went down in 2008, the team has never followed that script. While their second quarter is always the higest scoring (league trend), the 1st/3rd/4th quarters were always interchangeable. 
 
2011
1st Quarter - 5.5 points
2nd Quarter - 9.9 points
3rd Quarter - 8.4 points
4th Quarter -  8.4 points
 
2010
1st Quarter - 6.2 points
2nd Quarter - 8.9 points
3rd Quarter - 8.6 points
4th Quarter -  7.8 points
 
2009
1st Quarter - 5.8 points
2nd Quarter - 11.2 points
3rd Quarter - 4.5 points
4th Quarter -  4.4 points
 
The same can't be said since McDaniels came on board. There is a real trend line since 2012, but there is not one prior to his arrival.

 
These are small differences, sensitive to scoring or not scoring one or two touchdowns, and the trend isn't obvious at all over time if you just compare quarterly production.  For instance, the 1st quarter points totals 2008-2014 are 5.8, 6.2, 5.5, 6.8, 5, 5.  If anything, that's remarkably consistent.
 
There might be a case to be made regarding poor game planning but I don't think this is the evidence to show it.

 

[Stitch01]

Yup.
 
Meaning I agree with the premise but not the points by quarter as evidence.
 
Id also say, just anecdotally, its seemed like since '07 Brady and the offense always eventually found something that was effective in game.  It still might be a bit ugly, and they might have turned it over or got stopped for FGs, but the offense found a way to at least move the ball between the 20s effectively during the game close to 100% of the time even if the initial game plan didnt work..  This year, not so much.

 

[mascho]

Yeah, I think there is an issue with respect to game planning and adjustments. They have yet to score on an opening drive this season (1st of game/1st of second half). After last night their last four opening drives went three and out. Against Miami they went three and out (with a blocked punt) and four and out (with a fumble). Against Minnesota it was three and out and six and out. If you include last year they have only scored on 8 of 40 opening drives, and gone three and out on 15 of 40. It is a small sample size but growing and growing....

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

 
Also, the 1st and 3rd quarters nearly always start with the ball around the offensive 20 - not a promising place from which to score points.  2nd and 4th quarters can start with the ball just about anywhere, including the defensive red zone.

 
The Patriots time of possessions for the first quarter of games ranks:
 
2014: 25th (42.53%)
2013: 26th (46.73%)
2012: 30th (45.38%)
2011: 32nd (39.02%)
2010: 27th (46.70%)
 
And before you say, "Well, yeah, duh! They were dominating with throws in the first quarter, so of course they had a low TOP!". First, no, they didn't (numbers are cited above). And secondly, of the 30 teams closest to those TOP ranks (6 closest each year) only two of them - Denver in 2013, Green Bay in 2011 - ranked higher than 12th for total offense. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
The Patriots time of possessions for the first quarter of games ranks:
 
2014: 25th (42.53%)
2013: 26th (46.73%)
2012: 30th (45.38%)
2011: 32nd (39.02%)
2010: 27th (46.70%)
 
And before you say, "Well, yeah, duh! They were dominating with throws in the first quarter, so of course they had a low TOP!". First, no, they didn't (numbers are cited above). And secondly, of the 30 teams closest to those TOP ranks (6 closest each year) only two of them - Denver in 2013, Green Bay in 2011 - ranked higher than 12th for ranked offenses. 

 
Not really surprising given that Belichick always defers when winning the coin toss.
 
I think if you want to make this case - and you could be right - you need to dive deeper into more refined drive stats (like what Mascho was starting to do), rather than just look at cumulative quarterly production or TOP. 

 

[Ed Hillel]

Yeah, I think there is an issue with respect to game planning and adjustments. They have yet to score on an opening drive this season (1st of game/1st of second half). After last night their last four opening drives went three and out. Against Miami they went three and out (with a blocked punt) and four and out (with a fumble). Against Minnesota it was three and out and six and out. If you include last year they have only scored on 8 of 40 opening drives, and gone three and out on 15 of 40. It is a small sample size but growing and growing....

 
I'd be more convinced at this being a thing this year if they were actually scoring on any of the other drives. You clog the middle against this Pats O, and what's left? Brandon Lafell one on one outside? They have no outside threat, are extremely predictable, and the OLine stinks in both run and pass blocking. Unless Dobson/Tyms can miraculously turn into a legitimate outside option, this team has very little going forward offensively.