He certainly will not be close to an ace, but as a former Division 1 pitcher for four years, I really like Joe Kelly on many levels (besides his last name). I actually think that he could be a 12-15 win pitcher for the RS this coming year.
EricFeczko said:
Despite his age, I'm actually less concerned about decline. His velocity has trended in the opposite direction of the average pitcher; he has increased his fastball velocity by 2 MPH from 2007-2014.
I'm sort of surprised that Steamer is projecting only a 3.0 WAR.
sackamano said:Let it be Lee ...
dynomite said:Not sure the Red Sox are going to get an "ace" at this point. Seems like they're making many small bets instead of pushing their chips into the table.
That said, I brought it up in another thread, but if you really want an ace what do people think about Cliff Lee?
dynomite said:After reading that, I really do think the Sox are planning to head into 2015 with the current rotation. The Sox seem to believe that Kelly, Miley, and Porcello are all going to be very good MLB starters next year, and are willing to see what they can get out of Buchholz/Masterson/the kids and then take stock in July.
I sure hope they're right.
This is the problem. Given that he turned down a 6 year/$144 million offer from the Tigers earlier this season, which is almost double the one you mention, 99% is low.Dan to Theo to Ben said:I'd "prefer" 3/80 for Scherzer (but I am 99%sure given Max's age, he wants more years)
So you'd trade Owens, Cecchini, and anyone else who isn't Bogaerts/Betts for one year of Zimmermann? Seriously?Dan to Theo to Ben said:I'd "prefer" 3/80 for Scherzer (but I am 99%sure given Max's age, he wants more years) or packinging the non-Porcello potable pitchers. 2nd choice would probably be Owens, Garin, and something(s) else without B's and M's for Zimmermann. I've come around to trading Owens if we get a stud SP back.
to answer the question, choice obviously depends on the cost.
Can someone explain to me what "It" Gammons is referring to that "may rush Deven Marrero to the majors in June"?dynomite said:Really great Gammons article, and probably the best insight into the perspective of the Sox front office that we're going to get.
After reading that, I really do think the Sox are planning to head into 2015 with the current rotation. The Sox seem to believe that Kelly, Miley, and Porcello are all going to be very good MLB starters next year, and are willing to see what they can get out of Buchholz/Masterson/the kids and then take stock in July.
I sure hope they're right.
The added pressure on Xander because of Ben's addition of so many extreme groundball pitchers.InsideTheParker said:Can someone explain to me what "It" Gammons is referring to that "may rush Deven Marrero to the majors in June"?
dynomite said:The added pressure on Xander because of Ben's addition of so many extreme groundball pitchers.
Not exactly sure where Xander would play in this scenario, but that's what I took it to mean.
I am assuming we get a window from the Nats for an extension and Margot, Blake, Brian, Matt, and maybe (d)even Marrero, are also not included.Drek717 said:So you'd trade Owens, Cecchini, and anyone else who isn't Bogaerts/Betts for one year of Zimmermann? Seriously?
Interesting thought. But the groundballers (Miley/Porcello/etc.) are all SPs who'll be out of the game by the 8th for the most part, right?geoduck no quahog said:I'd imagine late inning replacement, if ahead.
Why would Zimmerman sign an extension unless the Sox offered a crazy contract, like at least Scherzer money? He'd be stupid to.Dan to Theo to Ben said:I am assuming we get a window from the Nats for an extension and Margot, Blake, Brian, Matt, and maybe (d)even Marrero, are also not included.
I should probably add Devers and Erod too though. You do have to offer quality to get quality back though, so Owens is probably necessary.
dynomite said:Interesting thought. But the groundballers (Miley/Porcello/etc.) are all SPs who'll be out of the game by the 8th for the most part, right?
Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:Why would Zimmerman sign an extension unless the Sox offered a crazy contract, like at least Scherzer money? He'd be stupid to.
It just doesn't happen in the real world. Who is the last big name pitcher who actually did this? I can't think of one.ehaz said:
To hedge against risk. Unlike Scherzer/Lester, Zimmermann has gone through TJ surgery. Not saying it´s likely but possible. Same goes for Cueto who has had injury problems of his own.
foulkehampshire said:
I don't think they're done. Too many questions at the back of the rotation; they have the pieces to acquire at the very least one more high-upside SP.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
Are you suggesting that ground ball pitchers are more likely to exit early than non-ground ball pitchers? If so, why? I would think the opposite as the ability to draw weak contact can lead to a lot of really quick innings.
Excellent point.dynomite said:Interesting thought. But the groundballers (Miley/Porcello/etc.) are all SPs who'll be out of the game by the 8th for the most part, right?
Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:It just doesn't happen in the real world. Who is the last big name pitcher who actually did this? I can't think of one.
It also wasn't during a "window," with a new team, after a trade. That's the concept that keeps getting throw around here.BellhornIsGod said:
Hamels signed his extension in July, before reaching FA. But that was for market value, not a discount
Santana/Halladay come to mind. But you´re right, it hasn´t happened in a while.Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:It just doesn't happen in the real world. Who is the last big name pitcher who actually did this? I can't think of one.
This is the real issue with signing both Panda and Hanley. What do you do if Xander is hitting well, but playing atrocious defense? 3B and LF are taken, and there isn't really anywhere else to put him, so you almost have to trade him in that scenario if you can't live with the SS defense.benhogan said:Excellent point.
Reading between the lines of the Gammons article:
With the Sox signing ground ball pitchers and...
if Xander hits and fields like last season, and if Marrero hits above .700 ops in AAA, then they may move Xander for a #1pitcher by mid-season.
Lots of 'ifs' there...
Great to hear Xander is at API working on his footwork, hopefully Pedey is riding him hard and developing some chemistry.
Haha, ships in the night.Snodgrass said:
Are you suggesting that ground ball pitchers are more likely to exit early than non-ground ball pitchers? If so, why? I would think the opposite as the ability to draw weak contact can lead to a lot of really quick innings.
Only if he starts regressing.jimbobim said:
Selling Swihart would be a trading of an asset at it's absolutely peak value.
dynomite said:Does that make sense?
Fair but I rather give him up than X or Betts to fill that need which I do thinks needs to be filled if they really want to feel confident in their chance next year.Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:Only if he starts regressing.
It's a perfectly reasonable question. Based on this chart, it seems like most of his pitches increased in velocity; not just his fastball:Harry Hooper said:
Just a thought, is there any chance this is a pitch classification artifact? As in, all his pitches decline in velocity slightly, but many of his slower fastballs are now classified as other pitches so that the remaining pool of fastballs has a higher average velocity.
I believe that finding an Opening Day 2B of the caliber of Betts - a guy that can step into a 96 win team at MLB minimum salary - is very valuable to the Nats. The Nats may well win it all in 2015, but I believe their projected salary growth as currently constituted is unsustainable after next year. They can make a move or two - GFIN - without blowing it up in 2016. Isn't that what everyone wishes they could do?Danny_Darwin said:The Nationals, right now, even without having made any significant moves, are probably the on-paper best team in the NL (if not all of MLB). There are no guarantees in baseball, but they can reasonably expect to contend for a World Series in 2015. They are not going to trade their best or second-best pitcher unless he's providing a solution at a position of need both now and in the long term. The Rad Sox have such a player in Betts, who would be their Opening Day second baseman and allow them to move Anthony Rendon to third. Bogaerts might also make sense if they stuck him at third for a year. Otherwise, I'm not sure why the Nationals would want anything the Red Sox are offering. They certainly don't need outfielders, and they don't need young pitching who can't help in 2015 and/or wouldn't be better than their young guys (like Taylor Jordan). I'm not even sure catching is a dire need for them, although I'm sure if BC offered Swihart they'd take him. So unless you're prepared to give up one of those two, maybe three guys, don't bother wishcasting for Zimmermann.