Who's Your choice for Sox Top of the Rotation Ace?

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

 
I'm not suggesting spending like a drunken Yankee owner. I'm suggesting spending moderately now, while they have a little leverage, to avoid having to spend like drunken Yankee owners next year when two of their starters will be free agents and they could very well be in a position where it's not worth triggering Clay Buchholz's option leaving them down three pitchers again.
 
 
When have salaries ever gone down? There is zero chance pitchers will get cheaper going forward.

This is the general point in figuring out a way to extend Porcello now at a reasonable rate before he ends up in the $25M per year category, which he could very well become if he continues to improve- and he seems to be a very good bet to do just that.  I don't know if Wainright was a top ten pitcher when he signed his extension but if he entered FA this past offseason he probably would have been... so by extending Porcello now, they would be doing exactly what the Cardinals did, salary adjusted, age adjusted.
If one of Owens or Rodriguez ends up looking like they will become no. 1 type starters, then we've locked down a very good no. 2 for years to come with a Porcello extension.

 

[MikeM]

This is the general point in figuring out a way to extend Porcello now at a reasonable rate before he ends up in the $25M per year category, which he could very well become if he continues to improve- and he seems to be a very good bet to do just that.  I don't know if Wainright was a top ten pitcher when he signed his extension but if he entered FA this past offseason he probably would have been... so by extending Porcello now, they would be doing exactly what the Cardinals did, salary adjusted, age adjusted.
If one of Owens or Rodriguez ends up looking like they will become no. 1 type starters, then we've locked down a very good no. 2 for years to come with a Porcello extension.

 
Ehh, that strikes me as a little too much projection stock being placed there that Porcello indeed ends up being the next Adam Wainwright.
 
The level of inflation being suggested is not present yet, and it's still rather questionable to be there next winter. Homer Bailey may be the best comp on the table, but it's also worth noting that he is probably the most extreme example on the high end side of things as well....and even that is still falling short. Generally speaking, there certainly appears to be a line drawn when it comes to a per/year splurge factor on the less then elite free agent starters, and/or those falling outside the very best the market has to offer. 
 
If Porcello was a free agent right now, i personally do not see him walking out of this winter with $20m/per. Another less then universally sexy 2010-13 4.00 era + season in 2015, and he probably does not even get anything all that close next winter either imo. Regardless of his age. Extra years maybe.  

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
If Porcello was a free agent right now, i personally do not see him walking out of this winter with $20m/per. Another less then universally sexy 2010-13 4.00 era + season in 2015, and he probably does not even get anything all that close next winter either imo. Regardless of his age. Extra years maybe.  

 
This is bingo.  If he were on the market this winter, I think he'd come in closer to what Santana and Liriano have gotten than what Lester and Shields and Scherzer have gotten or are expected to get.  His age certainly makes him a bit more attractive and valuable than Santana and Liriano, but there's still a pretty big gulf between what they got and even the $20M AAV level, let alone Lester money.
 
Given that, there's no reason that the Red Sox should even consider extending him now if the price tag approaches $20M per year.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

 
I'm not suggesting spending like a drunken Yankee owner. I'm suggesting spending moderately now, while they have a little leverage, to avoid having to spend like drunken Yankee owners next year when two of their starters will be free agents and they could very well be in a position where it's not worth triggering Clay Buchholz's option leaving them down three pitchers again.
 
 
When have salaries ever gone down? There is zero chance pitchers will get cheaper going forward.

 
So we're not talking around each other, I'll make my opinion clearer.  Extending Porcello for more than 15/5 seems like an overspend.  $20 per seems nuts.  If you're going to overspend, better to do that on a truly elite pitcher and maybe even a better use of extra money is for truly elite hitters in the testing era.

 

[foulkehampshire]

 
So we're not talking around each other, I'll make my opinion clearer.  Extending Porcello for more than 15/5 seems like an overspend.  $20 per seems nuts.  If you're going to overspend, better to do that on a truly elite pitcher and maybe even a better use of extra money is for truly elite hitters in the testing era.

 
The problem is truly elite pitchers are going to be making 28-33+ million dollars a year, which is a ludicrous amount of money considering the luxury tax limit. 20 AAV is the market rate for good-very good pitchers, as hard as it is for us to reconcile that. 

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

 
This is bingo.  If he were on the market this winter, I think he'd come in closer to what Santana and Liriano have gotten than what Lester and Shields and Scherzer have gotten or are expected to get.  His age certainly makes him a bit more attractive and valuable than Santana and Liriano, but there's still a pretty big gulf between what they got and even the $20M AAV level, let alone Lester money.
 
Given that, there's no reason that the Red Sox should even consider extending him now if the price tag approaches $20M per year.

I think it's perfectly possible he'd get about the same as Shields, which is about the range were talking about - 5/$100. Certainly I'd bet lots of money that Porcello age 26-30 will be better than Shields age 33-37. And, in general, I think it's almost always better to bet on a young pitcher with less of a track record but some established success than an older pitch with a longer track record. Shields at $100 strikes me as very high risk; Porcello less so.

Having said that, when you're a team like the Red Sox and you always have the option to retain talent if you choose to spend the money, I'm not sure it makes sense to extend a year before FA. For one thing, I consider Porcello to be a high risk for TJ surgery, by which I mean "Porcello is a major league pitcher". I think I would need more of a discount to give up on the oppertunity to observe Porcello for another year than 5/$100 and I doubt Porcello would sign for less.

 

[EllisTheRimMan]

 
The problem is truly elite pitchers are going to be making 28-33+ million dollars a year, which is a ludicrous amount of money considering the luxury tax limit. 20 AAV is the market rate for good-very good pitchers, as hard as it is for us to reconcile that. 

 
I'd rather overspend there... I understand the concept.  If you're not going to overspend on the elite, I'd prefer the grab a bunch of above average young guys and hope they over perform and/or turn into a Porcello or even an elite... Anyone who is arguing that Porcello is worth $20 per is ignoring my point about how the Cardinals somehow manage to be extremely competitive while being in the middle of the pack year after year in terms of overall salary.  This is not the "either you overspend or you are not competitive proposition" some are making it out to be.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

While he wouldn't be an ace how about giving Brandon Beachy a similar contract to what Kris Medlen received from Kansas City? Worthwhile gamble for someone who has pitched like a top of the rotation guy when healthy. He probably won't be ready till June but could be a good weapon for the stretch run.

 

[67WasBest]

It's reported Beachy has 6 offers in hand.  He would be the kind of guy I could see them signing and I'm hoping the Sox are one of the 6.
 
Right-hander Brandon Beachy is mulling over six offers and hopes to make a decision by Friday of this week, reports SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). Beachy has thrown for seven teams over the past 10 days, according to Cotillo. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets that the Twins are not one of the teams with an offer out. The 28-year-old Beachy was non-tendered by the Braves in December due to the fact that he underwent his second Tommy John surgery last spring. Any club that signs Beachy to a one-year deal would have the right to control him via arbitration, though a team certainly could offer a second year option or even two guaranteed years as a means of enticing him. In 267 2/3 innings at the Major League level, Beachy has a 3.23 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 (all with the Braves).
 
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

[Green Monster]

 
................Beachy has thrown for seven teams over the past 10 days

 
The guy is gonna blow his arm out!.....
 
Seriously though, I would be fine taking a shot on him........  He could offer some insurance with upside.  Anyone know what kind of ground ball rates has he had in the past?

 

[rodderick]

 
The guy is gonna blow his arm out!.....
 
Seriously though, I would be fine taking a shot on him........  He could offer some insurance with upside.  Anyone know what kind of ground ball rates has he had in the past?

 
He's not a groundball pitcher: career GB% of 37.2.

 

[jasvlm]

The Red sox may well roster some of the injured guys hoping to return, Beachy being one of them, but I doubt they'd get into a bidding war for any single guy, no matter how promising they may have been prior to their injury.  The Padres were able to sign Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow on 1 year deals for less than 4 mil each, so the bar isn't that high.

 

[TheYaz67]

I voted "none of the above", but never expounded on my choice.  With Max off to the Nats, I'll now say "Jordan Zimmermann Trade"....

 

[sean1562]

I voted "none of the above", but never expounded on my choice.  With Max off to the Nats, I'll now say "Jordan Zimmermann Trade"....

 
this keeps getting brought up but really, the only hole that team has is at 2B. they are fairly deep at every other position, they just traded an OF prospect for a SS prospect that is ostensibly two years away(and subsequently traded for escobar, who is almost certainly their SS in 2016). we dont have many trade chips that will appeal to them. Zimmermann is an enticing piece. other teams will approach them for what they want or they can just keep him. most of the trades i have seen here for zimmermann are things that would never happen. in another tread someone suggested Shane Victorino or Allen Craig because Jayson Werth might not be ready for Opening Day. I somehow doubt they are gonna trade JZimm for an injury prone OF as insurance for their current somewhat injury prone OF. 

 

[Carroll Hardy]

And the Boston Red Sox would have a major league ready, cost-controlled dirt cheap potential All Star 2B/CF.

 

[TheYaz67]

Well, remember that they only have Zimmermann for one more year, they have tons of pitching depth and trading Zimmermann would "save" $16.5M this year in payroll.  I don't think they necessarily can get an "elite" 2B from anyone in exchange for one year of Zim (and have signed Cabrera anyways), and they because they don't have any other starting positional/pitching holes, they may actually just be looking for minor league depth, and/or a bench piece (who can hit) as part of a trade (since the bench hitting has been a weakness for them last 2 years).  Its too bad they already have Carp on board, or Craig would look appealing for one of those roles (but they have others they are auditioning in the Spring, like Dan Uggla). 
 
I know Rizzo has reputation for trying to "win" most trades (which he usually does), but in this case freeing up the $16.5M may also be a significant consideration which will override the need to make a "perfect" trade, considering the increased arb awards Fister, Strasburg and others have recently got. 

 

[sean1562]

they arent over the luxury tax, do you really think they would be trying to dump JZimm's 16.5 mil just because they dont wanna spend any money? Nate Mclouth was horrible last year but was injured. Also, you dont trade a potential 1 starter for bench bats and salary relief when your team is one of the favorites to win the World Series. The Souza trade was a big "minor league depth" trade and i really doubt they are in any rush to ship off Zimmermann for bench bats, relief pitchers, and/or minor league depth. they want a legit prospect and shouldnt trade him for anything less

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

There is zero chance the Nats trade Zimmermann for salary relief or bench depth. That's a ridiculous suggestion. That said, that doesn't mean it would cost Betts or even Swihart. I could see a package built around Margot or one of Owens or Rodriguez being the best offer they get and being enough.

Margot would be of interest if they don't think they will be able to retain Harper.

 

[nvalvo]

If I were Rizzo, the increment to the package I could get for one year of Fister or Zimmermann from the picks when they left would not be worth the decline in my postseason odds from making the deal in a year when the team is as close to a lock to win the NL East as anyone ever is. 
 
edit: that sentence was hella confusing. The Nats are a favorite to win the World Series; an overwhelming favorite to win the East. Now is not the time to take the long view. 

 

[Fireball Fred]

nvalvo's last is perfectly correct - Washington's got to seize this opportunity. The city hasn't had a WS team since 1933, a champ since '24, so winning would be a huge deal, worth a lot of money to them. The fact that the 'Skins are down makes winning now all the more valuable.

 

[bosockboy]

They can still seize the opportunity with Scherzer, one of Strasburg/Zimmerman, Gonzales, Fister and Roark.
 
Getting an offensive piece for 2015 and 2-3 prospects would still help them in both the short and long term.

 

[sean1562]

They can still seize the opportunity with Scherzer, one of Strasburg/Zimmerman, Gonzales, Fister and Roark.
 
Getting an offensive piece for 2015 and 2-3 prospects would still help them in both the short and long term.

 
what package do you see getting him? For Zimmermann, if I were Rizzo, I wouldnt do it for anything less than Margot, Coyle and one of Johnson/Ranaudo/Barnes. The Strasburg talks begin and end with Betts

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
what package do you see getting him? For Zimmermann, if I were Rizzo, I wouldnt do it for anything less than Margot, Coyle and one of Johnson/Ranaudo/Barnes. The Strasburg talks begin and end with Betts

 
Which would be stupid .. Strasburg is apt to put up somewhere between 8 and 9 WAR the next two years .. how much WAR is Betts projected to produce over the next 5 years? Hell, he could match Strasburg over two.
 
Betts and Swihart are untouchable for me .. the rest of the farm system is on the table. 

 

[swingin val]

Strasburg for Betts makes too much sense for both teams. WAS gets their 2B of the present and future and still gets to roll out one of the best rotations in all of baseball. BOS gets their ace and strengthens their bullpen all while solving their crowded outfield situation.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Strasburg for Betts makes too much sense for both teams. WAS gets their 2B of the present and future and still gets to roll out one of the best rotations in all of baseball. BOS gets their ace and strengthens their bullpen all while solving their crowded outfield situation.

 
Strasburg will be going into free agency after two seasons. Is that enough of a trade-off for you by sacrificing Betts?

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Strasburg for Betts makes too much sense for both teams. WAS gets their 2B of the present and future and still gets to roll out one of the best rotations in all of baseball. BOS gets their ace and strengthens their bullpen all while solving their crowded outfield situation.

 
So you are giving up Betts for two years of an ace? - And it's only the upgrade of our worst SP - Kelly? - to Strasburg  - maybe two WAR a year? I don't like that math.

 

[sean1562]

realistically, we arent going to trade for any of the Washington pitchers because we have nothing to offer them that will make a trade really appealing to them. if they enter this season with that rotation they are stacked and are world series favorites. there is no reason to break that apart unless you are getting someting really great back that will fill a current or future hole. their biggest hole is 2B. they arent desperate to trade and we arent either. it probably isnt gonna happen. 

 

[foulkehampshire]

 
So you are giving up Betts for two years of an ace? - And it's only the upgrade of our worst SP - Kelly? - to Strasburg  - maybe two WAR a year? I don't like that math.

 
Strasburg is a legitimate top 10 pitcher in baseball with youth on his side and the Sox would be dealing a player from a position of depth. Seems like a very beneficial trade to both parties. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

They can still seize the opportunity with Scherzer, one of Strasburg/Zimmerman, Gonzales, Fister and Roark.
 
Getting an offensive piece for 2015 and 2-3 prospects would still help them in both the short and long term.

 
Stockpiling pitching is only half of the equation (figuratively speaking). Improving your run differential over the course of the season is the end goal and if you can use what would be a marginal downgrade to the rotation as a way to make a major upgrade to the lineup, you can actually improve your odds of getting to and winning the World Series even after moving someone like Zimmermann or Strasburg. Scherzer, Zimmermann, Fister and Gonzalez with Roark coming out of the pen and able to pick up the pieces if one of the first four has a meltdown is still as deep as any other team could possibly run in the post season this year. Meanwhile, the difference between Espinosa or Escobar to Betts could be fairly large.
 
And while I'm not saying it's an easy decision to part with Betts for Strasburg, I think he has to be on the table if they are willing to pony up to get Strasburg locked up once they acquire him. If they believe Strasburg is gone after 2 seasons, that changes the balance significantly, but Strasburg is exactly the kind of player you consider moving a Betts for. Maybe Betts being included is contingent on a successful extension and if they can't work it out, the package drops to something more like Margot, Owens, Nava and Devers. If we're talking about Strasburg, though, I don't think you can go into negotiations with Betts off the table before they even begin.

 

[swingin val]

 
So you are giving up Betts for two years of an ace? - And it's only the upgrade of our worst SP - Kelly? - to Strasburg  - maybe two WAR a year? I don't like that math.

Fangraphs has that as a 2.7 WAR upgrade for next year. And again it strengthens the bullpen where Kelly probably should be anyway.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
So you are giving up Betts for two years of an ace? - And it's only the upgrade of our worst SP - Kelly? - to Strasburg  - maybe two WAR a year? I don't like that math.

 
WAR doesn't really scale linearly. The value gap between a 6 win player on your roster and two 3 win players is significant. With Kelly we're looking at someone who is probably a 2 win starter turning into a 1 win or so reliever. Strasburg is already a 4 win pitcher and is young enough that he could still improve. If he puts up a 5 win season next year that's a huge upgrade overall.

 

[Rasputin]

Strasburg for Betts makes too much sense for both teams. WAS gets their 2B of the present and future and still gets to roll out one of the best rotations in all of baseball. BOS gets their ace and strengthens their bullpen all while solving their crowded outfield situation.

 
"Solving their crowded outfield situation" is a stupid reason to do anything. Also, spoiler alert, it's not that crowded and what crowding there is all goes away after the 2015 season.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

WAR doesn't really scale linearly. The value gap between a 6 win player on your roster and two 3 win players is significant. With Kelly we're looking at someone who is probably a 2 win starter turning into a 1 win or so reliever. Strasburg is already a 4 win pitcher and is young enough that he could still improve. If he puts up a 5 win season next year that's a huge upgrade overall.

But you are looking at upgrading Kelly to Strasburg .. Like for like .. And the difference between the two players is probably about 2WAR a year. .. For two years .. The difference between Mookie Betts and Nava/Craig/Vic is probably > 2 WAR a year. And that's not even taking into account Betts'. prime years which we will be viewing from afar as he puts up MVP-lite seasons in Washington.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

But you are looking at upgrading Kelly to Strasburg .. Like for like .. And the difference between the two players is probably about 2WAR a year. .. For two years .. The difference between Mookie Betts and Nava/Craig/Vic is probably > 2 WAR a year. And that's not even taking into account Betts'. prime years which we will be viewing from afar as he puts up MVP-lite seasons in Washington.

 
So now we're certain Betts will be putting up borderline MVP seasons through his prime? Betts is an excellent young player, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. Daniel Nava is about a 2 win player. On his own. Add in Victorino and Craig and you're looking at 4 or 5 wins this year between them. Betts is biting into that value, and the chances that he is a significant upgrade over what those three combined will offer are slim, at least for 2015. Victorino is gone after that, so Betts' on field value will go up in 2016, but the chances that the difference between Betts and the trio you mention is greater than the difference between Strasburg and Kelly seem incredibly low to me.

 

[swingin val]

It also might not be Kelly that he would be replacing. It could be whoever is the worst of Kelly/Buch/Masterson. And the chances that one of those trio completely sucks next year is not miniscule.

 

[lxt]

Has anyone considered Fister? He fits the current profile (GB - 49%, does not walk people & does not give up HR) of pitchers Boston is hiring. He would be a worthwhile one year rental with a far less expensive 2 - 3 year extension. He would likely step in as the ace of the staff (Not ace as defined by the board) taking the pressure off Buchholz & Porcello. I imagine a package of Coyle (Future at 2B), Marrero (Assuming Desmond does not stay), Escobar & Mujica (Bullpen is only area they may need some depth) could get it done.
 
A Small addition to content.
 
Fister not Fisher ... Dah!

 

[Puffy]

Has anyone considered Fisher? He fits the current profile (GB - 49%, does not walk people & does not give up HR) of pitchers Boston is hiring. He would be a worthwhile one year rental with a far less expensive 2 - 3 year extension. He would likely step in as the ace of the staff (Not ace as defined by the board) taking the pressure off Buchholz & Porcello. I imagine a package of Coyle (Future at 2B), Marrero (Assuming Desmond does not stay), Escobar & Mujica (Bullpen is only area they may need some depth) could get it done.
 
A Small addition to content.

 
Fister?

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Speier's right that the Sox have either traded for (and extended) or developed their best pitchers over the past 30 years, as opposed to buying them in FA.  I'm hoping that Owens or Rodriguez can become the next Lester, but I'd love to see the team go get Sonny Gray from Oakland  - if not now, then next offseason.  There are others like Gray out there, but Beane is the creative GM with a tight budget most likely to trade a young SP to get even younger and stay ahead of the curve (as he's done with all of his SPs starting with Hudson).

 

[MikeM]

For those expecting the Sox to go hard after one of next year's FA starters, Speier doesn't see it.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/21/max-scherzer-deal-likely-takes-red-sox-out-next-year-free-agent-market/PYwynMmOEst7IA5rA6OvtO/story.html

 
The problem i have with that article is that it's logic seems to operate on an automatic dismissal of any possibility the Sox end up rethinking this winter's stance on Lester.
 
As I stated earlier in this thread i don't see it being so cut and dry, nor do i buy into the surface value claim that Ben is out there "going back to their principles" or completely reinventing the way we have approached roster building for going on a decade now. The Sox did not avoid the always present risk of clogging up the payroll in the likes of signing both Hanley and Pablo, and this winter isn't really any different then a lot of the others where we had big holes to fill (minus 2013. although i guess had we signed BJ Upton at $100m instead of Victorino and the initial Napoli deal had gone through, i'd see more of a parallel). We just again passed on paying the elite FA starter premium, and instead paid it on 3B/LF. 
 
The only new ground being broken here is that we are doing the above without any readily visible alternative to spending for that ace on the horizon. Not even a 2005 hurt Curt Schilling chance at a triumphant mid season return. We have made value assessment stretches in the past to fill what was perceived as big holes, and this is arguably the biggest one to date. Which in turn makes it harder to predict what conservative value stance this front office, with all their resources, will place on securing an ace next winter in the event this year's attempt at circumventing the free agency route to fill such a hole ends in utter failure.  

 

[Pedro 4 99MVP]

I have expressed my opinion in several different threads that we need an ace. My opinion has changed based on circumstances; when the Reds still had all of their pitchers, I wanted to go after one of theirs, would love to have Hamels because he is signed at what now looks like a reasonable contract, but RAJ is holding out for too much, now that the Nationals have Scherzer we could explore Zimmermann or Strasburg. Even though my "ideal" target has changed,  I have remained consistent that we need an ace, and the reason why is that I don't trust Masterson AT ALL. Maybe he will be an all-star and I can eat my words, but he looked very bad last year, and even in his good years, he has struggled with getting lefties out consistently. 
 
So with that said, I think BC's "ideal" target should be the guy who is actually available for the right price. Shields costs only money, so he should still be an option if the price doesn't get out of control. The other guy not talked about much, that I think should be on the radar is Cliff Lee. I understand the injuries last year make this risky, but he is didn't need surgery and has a normal off-season and has been throwing pain free since late November. Now, I wouldn't give up any top prospects for him like I would for Hamels who is younger, healthier, and better at this point, but what if we could get Lee in a salary dump? I have heard many people talk about Scherzer and Shields "It's only money". What if Lee was "only money" and for a shorter term than Shields would require? Throw a low level lottery ticket and maybe a near major league ready prospect that doesn't have much upside at the Phillies. RAJ isn't realistic, but maybe for a guy coming off injury, he would be happy to just get rid of the salary.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Masterson has only had one below average season in his career. He was hurt last year, which messed with his mechanics. If he's healthy, he's a pretty good pitcher and I think he's a lot more likely to be healthy than Lee.

 

[Rasputin]

I just had an idle thought while eating a bagel this morning.
 
At what point does James Shields decide he's better off taking a two year offer for higher annual value and hitting the market again after all of next year's big names?
 
You'd think he'd really want to sign by at least the middle of March, right?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
At what point does James Shields decide he's better off taking a two year offer for higher annual value and hitting the market again after all of next year's big names?

 
At 33? I think the answer would be never. At least I think his market would have to really tank before he'd consider it.
 
I mean, even if his best offer were 4/80, isn't that better than, say, 2/50? In the latter case he's gambling that at 35 he'll be able to command a 2/30 contract. Quite possible, but hardly something you would want to bank on.
 
This is his last big payday. He needs to make what he can of it.

 

[Pedro 4 99MVP]

Masterson has only had one below average season in his career. He was hurt last year, which messed with his mechanics. If he's healthy, he's a pretty good pitcher and I think he's a lot more likely to be healthy than Lee

Maybe Masterson will be healthier than Lee, that is speculative and not worth arguing about. However, if Lee only costs $$$, who is the  better pitcher? And really, Masterson has only had 1 bad year in his career? Are you serious?
ERA+ since 2010 for Masterson: 84, 122, 79, 110, 63
WHIP since 2010 for Masterson: 1.50, 1.28, 1.45, 1.20, 1.63
 
Which one of those years is his "only" bad year?
 
For comparison, Lee since 2010
ERA+: 133, 160, 128, 131, 102 with over 200 innings in the first 4 of those years
WHIP: 1.00, 1.03, 1.11, 1.01, 1.38
 
Maybe Lee won't be healthy, but maybe Masterson won't either. But who is the better pitcher? Not even close.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Maybe Masterson will be healthier than Lee, that is speculative and not worth arguing about. However, if Lee only costs $$$, who is the  better pitcher? And really, Masterson has only had 1 bad year in his career? Are you serious?
ERA+ since 2010 for Masterson: 84, 122, 79, 110, 63
WHIP since 2010 for Masterson: 1.50, 1.28, 1.45, 1.20, 1.63
 
Which one of those years is his "only" bad year?

 
2014 is his only below average year if you look at FIP, xFIP and fWAR. rWAR is less forgiving, but there's a pretty good argument to be made that he was at least average in every year of his career up until last year, in which he was injured. I'd be much more comfortable betting on him eclipsing 2 wins next year than Lee, but I'll get to that in a minute. As for health, yes, it's speculative, but no, that doesn't mean it's not worth discussing. It's an enormous factor in this comparison. Ignoring it would be ridiculous.
 

For comparison, Lee since 2010
ERA+: 133, 160, 128, 131, 102 with over 200 innings in the first 4 of those years
WHIP: 1.00, 1.03, 1.11, 1.01, 1.38
 
Maybe Lee won't be healthy, but maybe Masterson won't either. But who is the better pitcher? Not even close.

 
Lee suffered an elbow injury last year (that took him off the mound twice) and only amassed 81 and 1/3 innings... and is going into his age 36 season. That's terrifying. There's a very real chance he's going to blow out his elbow early next season and be a complete waste of money. I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't even make it through spring training, so his recent success on the mound doesn't count for much with me. There is absolutely no way I want the Red Sox to take on any part of his contract.
 
Masterson might be a mediocre pitcher next year, but he's much more likely to take the mound every day for a full season. He's only going to be 30 this year, which is young enough to expect him to be able to recover from knee inflammation. A full season of a mediocre Masterson is going to be worth around 2 wins. Whatever the odds are of Lee pitching enough to compile 2 WAR next year, they are too low for me to consider a 25 million dollar investment anything but an insane use of resources.
 
And this is ignoring that Masterson has been a well above average pitcher at times in the past. The upside is something like a lite version of prime years Cliff Lee. Cliff Lee's upside if healthy might not be much more, considering his age.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

No one's trading for Cliff Lee at this point .. July 31st , however, is a different story. If he looks like he's back to his old self then he should be a hot commodity .. and even Amaro would probably trade him and simply take the best offer.
 
One assumes that any club willing to absorb the remaining salary would have to make a minimal  offer. I suppose it depends on whether the Philies want to maximize the dollars saved or get the best prospect. If I'm Amaro I'd plump for the best prospect but it's not my money.

 

[The Boomer]

Too expensive free agent pitchers or those who are on the downside (like Lee) won't be their targets.  Trades bring back more value.  Pedro was the ultimate such acquisition.  Sonny Gray is a target for reasons already mentioned.  We need to be the Tigers (when they traded for Max Scherzer) or the Royals (when they traded for James Shields). This isn’t an exhaustive list but up and coming good pitchers in smaller markets (where arbitration gets expensive) are better to pursue as trade targets instead of free agents:
 
1. Drew Smyly - TB
2. Jake Odorizzi - TB
3. Danny Salazar -CLE
4. Phil Hughes - MN
 
Extending Porcello and maybe Miley, Buchholz or Masterson are possibilities.  Development of one or more from among Owens, Rodriguez or Johnson is another.  Younger pitchers with arbitration averse organizations make much more sense than expensive free agents.  This post includes a list of 5 such possible pitchers to watch.  Everyone else here can brainstorm to expand this list to perhaps a dozen such hurlers to monitor this season.  These 3 strategies: extending, developing and trading are much more likely to occur and produce for reasonable money than will signing mid-career or aging free agent pitchers for too long.  Going this route (Lester was an exception for obvious reasons) might never be part of their plan.  Longer term expensive free agent investments up to no more than age 35 or so for position players (e.g. Panda and Hanley) are safer and make more sense than the much higher risks involved with inconsistent and injury prone older pitching.

 

[swingin val]

MN just extended Hughes. He isn't being traded.

 

[Rasputin]

 
At 33? I think the answer would be never. At least I think his market would have to really tank before he'd consider it.
 
I mean, even if his best offer were 4/80, isn't that better than, say, 2/50? In the latter case he's gambling that at 35 he'll be able to command a 2/30 contract. Quite possible, but hardly something you would want to bank on.
 
This is his last big payday. He needs to make what he can of it.

 
If he's good over the 2/50 contract, I have no trouble believing he'll be able to get 2/30 or better.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

MN just extended Hughes. He isn't being traded.

 
And Bronson Arroyo can personally assure Hughes of this fact.