Speier's new article on deadline flips
The Sox aren’t necessarily done (dozens of free agents remain available). But their relative inactivity to date – after a public acknowledgement they’ll likely have a smaller payroll than the $225.7 million they spent (as calculated for luxury tax purposes) last year – suggests an outlook that spending heavily on 2024 roster, while looking toward the maturation and arrival of a homegrown core in 2025, would represent an exercise in putting the cart before the horse.
But in taking that stance, particularly with what appears to be an unprecedented (under the current Sox ownership group) measure of back-to-back planned spending decreases, the Red Sox may be missing an opportunity to flex just a little bit of financial might to accelerate their building process.
Assume for a moment that competitiveness in 2024 isn’t a Red Sox goal in its own right. Also assume that the team is going to remain on the sidelines of any big-dollar, long-term deals this offseason – meaning, in all likelihood, neither Blake Snell nor Jordan Montgomery (barring a collapse of their markets) will be part of the team.
Even with those constraints, a more aggressive approach in pursuit of players on short-term deals could accelerate the team’s building cycle.
Still, the fact the Sox could have made such a move is a reminder of the value of rental players – a notion reinforced by other one-year deals that were inked prior to the 2023 season.
The Royals signed Aroldis Chapman to a one-year, $3.5 million deal. Chapman dominated for three months as the Royals closer, then got dealt to the Rangers for starter Cole Ragans – a pitcher who showed ace-caliber stuff in Kansas City. Maybe that deal ends up looking like the next Scott Feldman-for-Jake Arrieta swap, when the rebuilding 2013 Cubs acquired a future ace in exchange for a starter whom they signed on a one-year, $6 million deal.
The Mets signed David Robertson to a one-year, $10 million deal, then dealt him to the Marlins at the deadline for two prospects who now rank among the top 30 in their system. The Nationals likewise turned one-year rental Jeimer Candelario into a pair of top-30 prospects in a deadline deal with the Cubs.
The article is fantastic and does a much better job of doing something I have tried to communicate time and time again in the Offseason thread. Not signing short term free agent because "they don't make the team a contender" is really stupid. Signing short term assets can be turned into long term assets is just good business. And the Red Sox have missed on several opportunities so far this free agency.There is still time, of course, for the Sox to add to what they’ve done — to sign a bullpen lottery ticket or two, or a masher like Jorge Soler or Adam Duvall, or someone who might make their team deeper and thus better positioned to either compete in 2024 or trade for someone who can help make them better in 2025 and beyond.