Even this would be a disaster of a trade. Harvey has shown nothing to suggest he isn't broken. Did you see the numbers Tyson Ross put up last year returning from thoracic outlet surgery? We shouldn't be discussing Matt Harvey.
Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation
- Thread starter Snodgrass'Muff
- Start date
I guess from their standpoint they would be making a huge defensive upgrade in the OF with Bradley, though I agree that Benintendi is probably the one they want. Maybe a three way deal makes it work? Or Boston needs to toss in a lottery ticket.
nvalvo wrote a great post comparing Abreu and Brandon Belt here: http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?posts/2569100/
We've been over this a lot the past month, but Belt and Abreu's power numbers are roughly the same if you look at park effects. The Giants would surely have more use for Bradley than Abreu, and Belt would almost certainly cost less than what Hahn's asking for the Cuban.
A package of Belt and Hunter Strickland would be enough for me to part with JBJ.
Benny is a better overall talent than Schwarber. Not sure why he would cost more than Benny.
I'm sorry if I wasn't clear, I was referring to a JBJ for Schwarber trade. If Theo wants Frodo then I'd want at least Aramis Ademan in addition to Schwarber to balance things out a little.
Benintendi is a way better talent than Schwarber. Bradley is a better talent than Schwarber. Schwarber was barely above average as an offensive player last year because he struck out in over 30% of his PAs. Trade JBJ for prospects? Are you kidding me people?
This team won 93 games last year. I've never seen a fanbase so low coming off a 93 win division championship. Our pitching staff is very good. Our offense is young. Give another year experience to Benintendi and Betts and Boegarts and a full season from Devers, there's a whole bunch of reasons why this offense gets better in 2018 without making any moves at all.
Sure the Yankees got Stanton. Good for them. It was nice when the Yankees sucked, but for the most part the Yankees will be good every year from now until whenever.
Don't panic DD. Don't sell out the farm system for some marginal upgrade. If you can add JDM, sure. But not at any cost and don't start trading away cost-controlled young pieces because you've decided that power is all that matters.
This team won 93 games last year. I've never seen a fanbase so low coming off a 93 win division championship. Our pitching staff is very good. Our offense is young. Give another year experience to Benintendi and Betts and Boegarts and a full season from Devers, there's a whole bunch of reasons why this offense gets better in 2018 without making any moves at all.
Sure the Yankees got Stanton. Good for them. It was nice when the Yankees sucked, but for the most part the Yankees will be good every year from now until whenever.
Don't panic DD. Don't sell out the farm system for some marginal upgrade. If you can add JDM, sure. But not at any cost and don't start trading away cost-controlled young pieces because you've decided that power is all that matters.
Over the past 3 seasons, WAR:
JD Martinez 10.5 in 1663 PAs
Bradley Jr. 9.7 in 1432 PAs
Schwarber 3.3 in 764 PAs
AB should be untradeable. Surprised anyone is discussing him as a potential piece.
as for JBJ, I'm wary because his defense is transcendent and makes everyone (LF/RF, pitching ERA) better. that's something that won't bear out in the numbers, ever. and who knows, maybe Cora and new staff will get him more consistent offensively? Then like 2016, he's an All-Star.
Try to dump Hanley somewhere before trading JBJ.
as for JBJ, I'm wary because his defense is transcendent and makes everyone (LF/RF, pitching ERA) better. that's something that won't bear out in the numbers, ever. and who knows, maybe Cora and new staff will get him more consistent offensively? Then like 2016, he's an All-Star.
Try to dump Hanley somewhere before trading JBJ.
Benintendi for Schwarber? That would be like trading Fred Lynn for Gorman Thomas. Haywood Sullivan and Buddy Leroux F’d up the first Fred Lynn by letting him walk. I hope DD doesn’t F up the second one.
No thank you.
No thank you.
As has been pointed out before, Belt missed the last 2 months of last season after getting beaned-- it was his fourth concussion in the last 8 years and his third in the last 4 seasons. He hasn't played since. Any team that took on his contract without seeing him play effectively for a while would be taking a huge foolish risk. At this point, Belt could basically be like Brock Holt for the rest of his career, and he is owed 4 more seasons at $17 million per year. Luckily Dombrowski isn't insane so we won't be trading Bradley for Belt this offseason.
Would they really though? From the tidbits I've read up on Almora the scouts at least seem to think he's pretty damn good out there as well.
I mean sure, by itself I'll take Bradley over Almora as my CFer. Just not sure Bradley offers enough slam dunk acquisition/upgrade appeal that the Cubs don't ultimately come out in better overall shape by trading Schwarber for something else.
Yes. I wish him well, but a good time to refer to MORNEAU, JUSTIN and I don't think any analytics department can accurately assess brain injuries. Giants have to take the risk and wish for the best, but we don't.
JD Martinez = 0.00631 per PA
Bradley = 0.00677 per PA
Schwarber = 0.00432 per PA
JBJ's WAR figure is propped up by a 2016 season that looks like an outlier against the rest of his career. And Schwarber's WAR per PA is dragged down by his April-June numbers where he was still getting his footing after missing a year following his knee injury.
That's a long way of saying that head to head WAR comparisons are a terrible way to assess a likelihood to contribute going forward and that's before we look at roster composition.
The Red Sox have three players capable of playing CF and precious few hitters capable of anchoring a lineup (maybe Devers eventually, Hanley when he isn't hurt and gets hot which is rare, maybe Mooke... maybe). Converting JBJ into a hitter who can anchor a lineup (like Schwarber) may not move the needle forward for WAR, but I guarantee you it will make this team a more dangerous one in the playoffs. Outfield defense was not an issue last year. It wouldn't be an issue with Beni in center, Mookie in right and a free agent acquisition in left, even if it's JD Martinez who has pretty shitty range.
Again, there's risk. But considering how similar his post demotion self looked to his 2015 self, I'm willing to bet he's a 30% better than league average hitter who can hit 30 bombs a year. I'll take that over JBJ going forward (if a 1 for 1 swap is actually on the table) considering what's around either player in the lineup.
This is hyperbolic. Tons of players who aren't Justin Morneau get concussions each year ― Mookie had one in 2015 before being one of the best players in MLB the next year. The vast majority aren't career-ending.
Brandon Belt was cleared by MLB as concussion symptom-free on October 3. The long-term effects are an open question I can't answer, and you're right that they're a concern. Perhaps they're significant. But I think you're pointing to the concussion when you actually don't like the player.
That doesn't seem hyperbolic to me. Repeated concussions often have progressively worse effects, and he hasn't played since his latest one. Yes he was cleared, but so was Brock Holt this year. Bottom line is it's not something you spend valuable assets on.
3 yrs 36 as the initial offer for Santana is good news. He'll obviously get more, but even if it's an extra 4 per year, then that's 3/48 or maybe a 4th year with a lower AAV which seems like the worst case scenario for the team signing him.
It just reiterates to me how silly it would be to trade for Schwarber and lose major and/or minor league talent rather than signing a superior player and losing draft picks while still having a little room to make other smaller signings. It's a short window. Get the better player.
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Confirmation that DD is actually willing to ship Bradley off might be good news on a potential Hosmer front too, in that DD is less likely to make a non-JD desperation reach there in the event he's looking to upgrade two spots in the lineup as opposed to one.
There has been like what, 7 teams linked to having interest in Santana now? I doubt the worst case scenario there includes a "maybe" 4th year, that demands a lower AAV to boot.
I'm liking Jay Bruce more as a potential Sox target with rumors swirling about an interest in trading Bradley atm. It'll be a lot easier for DD to then turn around and find a solid value/upside play at 1B.
3 years at 17 or 18 or 4 at 16 or 17 is what I was getting at.
I sincerely doubt he gets close to double the initial offer, regardless of interest.
Honest question here. No snark intended, so please don't take it that way. But why would anyone prefer a tempered or efficient solution like a "solid value/upside play at 1B?"
As far as I can see, Dombrowski has emptied the majority of the tank with the farm system, leaving only two back of the top 100 prospects as trade assets. He's nearly maxed out payroll and is well past the point where he can get back under the threshold for 2018. So why would anyone want him holding back now?
This is like sitting there with 3/4 of your chip pile in the pot facing a moderate raise that doesn't put you all in to see the river and folding because you are worried that last card isn't going to end up being exactly what you need. You're pot committed. Call the raise and see what it gets you.
There are plenty of valid arguments about which moves Dombrowski should make, but at this point JD Martinez should be plan A, to hell with the money. They're rebuilding in 2 or 3 years no matter what. Try to win a title now, deal with the harsh rebuild later. There's no stopping it now anyway. Jay Bruce and Carlos Santana is a half measure (I know... I was arguing for it a few weeks ago... my position has changed). I just don't get wanting to see measured and careful moves at this stage of the game.
As far as I can see, Dombrowski has emptied the majority of the tank with the farm system, leaving only two back of the top 100 prospects as trade assets. He's nearly maxed out payroll and is well past the point where he can get back under the threshold for 2018. So why would anyone want him holding back now?
This is like sitting there with 3/4 of your chip pile in the pot facing a moderate raise that doesn't put you all in to see the river and folding because you are worried that last card isn't going to end up being exactly what you need. You're pot committed. Call the raise and see what it gets you.
There are plenty of valid arguments about which moves Dombrowski should make, but at this point JD Martinez should be plan A, to hell with the money. They're rebuilding in 2 or 3 years no matter what. Try to win a title now, deal with the harsh rebuild later. There's no stopping it now anyway. Jay Bruce and Carlos Santana is a half measure (I know... I was arguing for it a few weeks ago... my position has changed). I just don't get wanting to see measured and careful moves at this stage of the game.
while it's very possible we're rebuilding in the early 2020s, I don't think the team should be locked into that path. Devers develops, Mookie and two of X/JBJ/AB are extended for good value, keep Sale, Price is still good or opts out, and that's a strong core.
it would be really nice if we could develop some homegrown pitching for the first time in over a decade.
it would be really nice if we could develop some homegrown pitching for the first time in over a decade.
People already pointed out the flaw in judging a player solely by batting average, but Bradley hit .245 last season and .249 in 2015. If you have an issue with .240, JBJ isn't much better. Of course, Schwarber actually hit .211. I'm also not sure what Pablo has to do with anything. Schwarber isn't fat.
When Schwarber has been healthy, he has hit. .246/.355/.487 in 273 PA in 2015. Missed pretty much all of 2016. He struggled early on in 2017, which should shock no one, since he missed a full year. In the first 2 months, he hit .165/.286/.341 on a .194 BAbip over 206 PA. 27bb/60k. From June until the end of the season, he hit .244/.336/.557 on a .284 BAbip in 280 PA. 30bb/90k.
That isn't really a player I would trade JBJ for, consider he's essentially a DH but he does have some breakout potential offensively. Schwarber hit over .330 in the minors in 600+ PA, and he is still somewhat young. If he's closer to a .280 hitter than a .240 one, it does change things considerably. He was a beast prior to injury.
I'd also prefer Javier Baez to either Schwarber or Happ. He's a possible Pedroia or X replacement and has huge power potential on top of being a plus defender. Same age as Schwarber and under control for just as long.
I am not sure the rebuild has to be harsh. Depending on which prospects take steps forward in 2018, it is possible that the Sox can replenish the team with the farm system. Sure the rebuild might be harsh, but I can also see scenarios where it is non existent or very short. Hit on a few prospects, make a couple trades and some cagey free agent signings and 2020 isn't so harsh. Further I don't think signing Martinez puts the Sox drastically over the luxury tax.
I'm cool with JD Martinez being plan A. I just don't believe the outbidding everybody on him process is a given to play out in our favor.
Beyond that, handing out a premium 4 year contract on a league average 1B bat is a piss poor play for us however you slice it atm/imo. At least with Bruce you can potentially justify that by the lack of other viable offensive upgrades available to us in the OF, and we could still keep the iffy-for-latter contracts added this winter count at one. As I've stated many times now, the difference between having Santana here over those other value/upside guys just isn't worth the extra baggage/risk that comes with it.
Threshold is 197 million. Sox are at $200,826,429.00 according to cot's. Even if Martinez's price comes down to 25 million, they are drastically over, and that's before signing a reliever and maybe re-signing Nunez or another middle infield bat. The question isn't whether they will be drastically over the CBT threshold, it's whether they'll be over the secondary threshold (237 million) which impacts their first draft pick.
I should have clarified my bad. I was referring to the secondary threshold, which unless I am mistaken, is where the penalties become harsh.
5 more days til the Sox ticket Saturday.
One move if not two are absolutely guaranteed by DD before then.
One move if not two are absolutely guaranteed by DD before then.
It might? If they decide Darvish or whomever is a better bet than Pomeranz, Porcello, or EdRod and then try to deal one of those from strength in a pitching-starved market, that could be interesting. It would probably get us a better prospect/player than the #24 or so draft pick Pom would net us next year.
That would count as a zig. [emoji41]
“@bradfo: Dombrowski said called Marlins last week about Stanton but they were already locked in with Yankees”
“@EvanDrellich: Dave Dombrowski says adding hitting is indeed the priority, to be clear. Notes that he sees people suggesting the Sox need more than one bat. He sees room only for one big bat with current roster. Didn’t handicap whether addition more likely by trade or free agency.”
“@alexspeier: Dombrowski: ‘We’re not prioritizing pitching. … middle-of the order bat. That hasn’t changed. First base (or) DH.’”
“@alexspeier: Dombrowski: Stanton deal doesn’t change what Sox trying to do. Sox already were trying to build the best team. ‘Already trying to get better and do the best we can.’”
“@alexspeier: Dombrowski says Sox want to keep OF together. ‘I don’t know where those rumors have started but they’re not accurate.’ Doesn’t rule out a move involving an OF, but suggests Sox aren’t looking to do that.”
“@alexspeier: Dombrowski: ‘Getting a RH reliever is not our driving force.’ Says Sox have Carson Smith as one of most effective right-on-right pitchers in baseball.”
“@EvanDrellich: Dave Dombrowski says he talked to Mike Hill about Giancarlo Stanton last week. At that point Marlins were already engaged with Yankees and Red Sox were not on the four team list.”
“@SmittyOnMLB: Dombrowski: “We’re not prioritizing pitching.” Said Red Sox are looking for a middle of the order hitter.”
“@EvanDrellich: Dave Dombrowski says adding hitting is indeed the priority, to be clear. Notes that he sees people suggesting the Sox need more than one bat. He sees room only for one big bat with current roster. Didn’t handicap whether addition more likely by trade or free agency.”
“@alexspeier: Dombrowski: ‘We’re not prioritizing pitching. … middle-of the order bat. That hasn’t changed. First base (or) DH.’”
“@alexspeier: Dombrowski: Stanton deal doesn’t change what Sox trying to do. Sox already were trying to build the best team. ‘Already trying to get better and do the best we can.’”
“@alexspeier: Dombrowski says Sox want to keep OF together. ‘I don’t know where those rumors have started but they’re not accurate.’ Doesn’t rule out a move involving an OF, but suggests Sox aren’t looking to do that.”
“@alexspeier: Dombrowski: ‘Getting a RH reliever is not our driving force.’ Says Sox have Carson Smith as one of most effective right-on-right pitchers in baseball.”
“@EvanDrellich: Dave Dombrowski says he talked to Mike Hill about Giancarlo Stanton last week. At that point Marlins were already engaged with Yankees and Red Sox were not on the four team list.”
“@SmittyOnMLB: Dombrowski: “We’re not prioritizing pitching.” Said Red Sox are looking for a middle of the order hitter.”
That would be an interesting addition. Assuming they had a potential David Price for a hitter deal to manage the payroll.
In order to trade for a middle of the order impact bat you need to have something to give in return. DD is not looking to trade any outfielders, hopefully not Devers because that would be really dumb and maybe not Xander. So who in the hell can he trade for a middle of the order impact bat???!!
Pretty sure you could easily acquire Miggy Cabrera for Hanley Ramirez. I'd really rather not but yeah.
Neither does Tyler Thornburgh or Carson Smith. Cobb is very intriguing here.
DD denied anything about Sale until it happened last Winter Meeting Tuesday. So excuse me for doubting any direct comments from him on this Winter Meeting Monday.
I just saw a tweet on the crawl of MLB Network stating that the Sox are willing to trade JBJ for a middle of the order impact bat. Whether he alone could garner a "middle of the order impact bat" is another question.
I will look for the tweet.
Bob NightengaleVerified account @BNightengale
The Boston #RedSox have let several teams know that CF Jackie Bradley is available in their pursuit of a power bat. #Cubs
However, this does not address the seemingly contradictory idea of having no room in the outfield for a middle of the order impact power bat in Stanton.
EDIT: Superfluous code
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Which realistically narrows down the current potential possibilities there (minus contracts that pay aging vets into their 40s) to what, asking the Pirates if they'd be interested in a Bradley-for-McCutchen based swap?
Or it means they are willing to move Benintendi to CF, Trade JBJ for a 1B or DH bat and sign JD Martinez or another masher for LF. (Or some combination thereof)
I don't think McCutchen is capable of playing CF anymore. Last year Marte played CF for Pirates.
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Doesn't his salary spike from 5 million to 20 million per after a year? If they do decide to move on from him, ever, they will get something of value now. Otherwise he could be a salary dump.
I don't see it happening because there are other options, but I could imagine Padres trading Myers now, before the salary bump lessens his value. This assumes they don't expect to compete, and don't think he is worth the contract they gave him.
What would this board think of taking back Kemp if it helps get us Freeman?
Can’t figure out exactly how much the Braves owe Kemp, but it’s 2/$36M or something minus the LAD/SD money. I wouldn’t know what to do with him — maybe just cut him — but fwiw he’s been pretty much the exact same hitter as Hanley the last three years.
Can’t figure out exactly how much the Braves owe Kemp, but it’s 2/$36M or something minus the LAD/SD money. I wouldn’t know what to do with him — maybe just cut him — but fwiw he’s been pretty much the exact same hitter as Hanley the last three years.
I was speculating there under the idea that DD would be making that trade specifically because he doesn't want to wait around for JD Martinez, or probably any of the other harder and/or projecting to be drawn out FA signs for that matter.
B-Ref has McCutchen starting 139 games at CF for Pitt in 2017 btw. He obviously wouldn't be playing CF here in the aftermath either, of course.
He's alive. I missed your simple statements of the obvious. Glad to hear from you.
With the Sox at $200 million already adding huge ticketed FAs without heavily back loading the contracts is going to kill the Sox. Heavily back loading contracts will kill their ability to sign current players to extensions. I would recommend adding Santana for 3/$45-48, resigning Nunez and adding an arm to the pen. That should keep them safely under the $237 threshold with a few bucks for a late season pick up.