It's not truly December until someone comes up with the suggestion that the Red Sox trade for Matt Kemp.
Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation
- Thread starter Snodgrass'Muff
- Start date
From TradeRumors:
- A report Monday morning indicated that the Red Sox had put Bradley on the block, but that’s not the case, according to Dombrowski. “Not accurate,” he said (Twitter link via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe).
I don't think the Red Sox care about the actual payroll nearly as much as they care about where they are in relation to the competitive balance tax threshold. And since they use the average annual value of a contract for competitive balance tax purposes, back loading contracts doesn't help.
Ozuna available: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/6-to-8-teams-interested-in-marcell-ozuna.html
I really don't think the Sox can do any trades with the Marlins that wouldn't involve Benin10D or Devers on this... I'm just hoping that some of the other potential JDM suitors decide that 7/$150M is too much so they turn to Ozuna. I'd love to have Ozuna but I think other teams pair up better
I really don't think the Sox can do any trades with the Marlins that wouldn't involve Benin10D or Devers on this... I'm just hoping that some of the other potential JDM suitors decide that 7/$150M is too much so they turn to Ozuna. I'd love to have Ozuna but I think other teams pair up better
If they were trying to convince Stanton to be more accepting of trades, why not do this first?
If the Marlins are actually looking to move Ozuna our only real possible trump card would probably have to start with a willingness to take Prado's $28.5m off their books. Otherwise he'd be ticketed somewhere else for a better prospect haul then we can offer.
The first bolded statement still isn't true, though you keep saying it. If you're discussing 3 years of WAR, 2017 would look like the outlier, since he posted 2.5 fWAR in less than half a season in 2015. That WAR/PA number you used would be 2015 - .00980, 2016 - .00786, 2017 - .00425. For a guy with less than 2000 career PAs, I think it's pretty hard to call 636 of them an outlier.
The second bolded statement is true. Especially in the case of Bradley, who has been all over the map in his MLB performance since 2013.
While true, I'm guessing most people consider the first 530 PA to be an outlier or at least dismiss the stats all together because he was clearly rushed.
First 530 PA: .196/.268/.280
Next 891 PA: .262/.345/.489
Last 541 PA: .245/.323/.402.
The only real difference in the last 2 samples is the huge drop off in power in 2017. His ISO in the minors was .168, so the .157 he put up this year seems more in line with expectations than the .227 he posted in the previous 891 PA. If you split the difference between the 2, it would put his ISO up to about .182, so you'd be looking at a .250/.340/.430 type of player.
How much of that 2015 WAR value there came outside his insanely hot 3 week period, and which amounted to roughly less then 1/3 of his total PAs?
First 71 PA: .121/.254/.172. Next 90 PA: .446/.489/.952. Last 94 PA: .138/.247/.263. That's kinda scary when you factor in his 2013 and 2014 performance.
His last 228 PA in 2016, he hit .216/.303/.387. Up until that point, he was slashing .295/.375/.540 in 408 PA. Dude is streakier than Brian Daubach.
What difference does it make whether a player accrues WAR during a hot streak or more evenly across a whole season? A win is a win.
For the reason we seek to know if the performance is SSS or if his predicted future performance better than the average numbers suggest.
For the record, I am no JBJ fan. His behavior in the Eckersley affair provides insight into his character, his 1962 PA tell me he is a below average MLB hitter and my eyes that he is the best fielding CF I ever saw. To me he is excess MLB talent that can be replaced by others on the current roster.
I would be glad to move on from him if we can fill our need for power and replace him in CF with AB.
Please no on Schwarber. Have people forgotten that he's missed a ton of time in his career with a knee injury?
I'd prefer the previously derided suggestion of Wil Myers, although if Bradley is the cost, the Sox would need more coming back.
I'd prefer the previously derided suggestion of Wil Myers, although if Bradley is the cost, the Sox would need more coming back.
Schwarber would never see the field defensively. That knee issue would clear right up as a full time DH.
It's highly likely that Schwarber would be given a first baseman's mitt.
I'm a Schwarber fan, and I don't worry at all about this past season. He's a hitter.
I'm a Schwarber fan, and I don't worry at all about this past season. He's a hitter.
I'm sure they'd try, but there's a fair chance he's no better than Hanley out there. He's got the frame for it, though. I just worry about him having a reverse of the issue Hanley had when he moved to left. Being completely unfamiliar with reacting to the ball coming off the bat from the infield could make him a nightmare there. But we don't know until he's given a shot at it, so maybe he adjusts just fine. He's much younger than Hanley was when he made that move.
Right, he'll only be 25 this season and I'd guess he has the hands for it from his years catching. I don't expect him to be Moreland out there, but I'm hopeful he'd be passable.
While this is not a hot streak, per se, the Red Sox won 15 games last season in which they scored 10+ runs. Bradley played in 14 of them and batted .321 (vs. his season's mark of .245) and slugged .453 (vs. his season's mark of .402), and that included three 0-4 games. In those three games the Sox won 12-10 on a walk-off; 11-6; and 10-7. giving up two runs in the top of the 9th. The opponents averaged 4.8 rpg in those games.
The point being that while Bradley's stats were fattened in those games, the Red Sox may well have won them regardless and it may very well matter when WAR is accrued by a player.
Aren’t all hitters likely to have better stats in games where the team scores a lot of runs? That’s why the team scored a lot of runs in the first place.
Sure, but I think there is some value in contextualizing when runs are scored by streaky hitters too. For the most part, production over the course of the year is production over the course of the year and there are pros and cons to both steady and streaky performers. But in extreme cases, I think streaky hitters could be less valuable than steady ones who put up the same composite value over a season. I'm not sure if JBJ is an example of that or not, but that he could be leaves me a bit wary going into 2018.
For someone who presumably just witnessed the tail end of of Nunez's season, you strike me as being surprisingly cavalier about knee injuries.
Nunez played the field. Running and fielding can aggravate knee issues. Schwarber would most likely be a strict DH. His "issues" are tied to being thrown in the outfield when he's not really able to be an outfielder. They stick him out there for his bat. His defense is awful and he can barely get to balls.
The outlier comment was referring to the uncharacteristically steady season he had. His trademark streaky hitting wasn't really on display. He only played in 74 games in 2015 because he was so awful at the plate early on they had to demote him (twice). He had a .154 OPS on May 19th, went down and came back up and had a .641 from June 25th through July 2nd before being sent down again. That 119 OPS+ hinges on a 28 game sample of insanely hot hitting.
Here's a breakdown of his last three season by peaks and valleys in his OPS.
In 2015 he opened the season with 21 games of a .384 OPS then followed it with 28 games of 1.381. He then finished the season with 25 games of a .510 OPS.
That's a great hitter for 37.8% of the season and awful the rest.
In 2016 he started the year off cold with a .586 OPS in his first 16 games, then when 140 games with an .861 OPS. It was up and down in that stretch, but not like 2015 or 2017. Normal peaks and alleys. Once he got up over 1.000 on May 13th he didn't get back down under .900 again until August 5th and didn't drop below .840 until October 1st.
That's 89.7% of the season where he was a very good hitter.
In 2017 he opened the season with 22 games of a .537 OPS, followed it with 49 games of a .986 OPS, then finished the year with 62 games of a .579 OPS.
Which is only 36.8% of the season where he was a great hitter.
He's Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. And how long he's Hyde each season will determine whether he looks like 2016 or 2017. I'm not willing to bet on the one year where he was consistent when the team is looking at such a specific and short window to win their next title. Get me someone more stable, and yes I think Schwarber will be a much more stable hitter going forward.
That might not actually be true and is mostly an anecdotal argument. The sample is about a third of the size it would need to be to be stable, but UZR doesn't indicate that he's a bad defender out there yet. With 1138.1 innings in the outfield so far in his career, he comes out at 3.2 UZR. And additional 2300 innings might change that number substantially, but aside from the memorable gaffes (like the game three drop) there's not much evidence to suggest he's a bad defender yet.
I'd still move him to DH in Boston if they were to trade for him, but I think he'd be a fine playing LF here and there (and hopefully some 1B as well).
Because blowing out your knee in a collision is typically not something one is prone to?
I agree he's an absurdly frustrating player at times.
Don't forget that JBJ had two injuries last year that almost definitely altered his at bats. His Strikeout% will always frustrate me, but those two injuries (knee early in yr, thumb late) ruined his chances at a better year at the plate. And, yet, he was still a 2.3 WAR guy. I cannot envision a scenario in which we trade JBJ, look back, and smile at the transaction.
JBJ for Schwarber is poor value added, especially when home runs are only a John Henry check away.
JBJ for Abreu is not happening, nor should it for much of the same reasons.
Keep JBJ. He's a World Series winning caliber CF. And he's 27. And we have him for 3 more years at a significant discount.
If a good defense replacement can be found might it make sense to try to include Bogaerts in any potential deal? The bat wasn't stellar last season but he should still be an attractive trade chip, Not advocating, just spitballing as I look for someone besides Bradley not named Betts, Devers or Beninteni who other teams would show interest in.
What would a satisfactory return from the Royals be in exchange for JBJ?
Scanning his market, the teams who could possibly be in the market for a CF include SF, KC, LAD, OAK, CHC, CLE, NYM, TEX, DET, and CWS, and most of those don’t make sense for other reasons. SF, KC, and TEX make the most sense.
Curious what we’d think fair, realistic value would be.
Scanning his market, the teams who could possibly be in the market for a CF include SF, KC, LAD, OAK, CHC, CLE, NYM, TEX, DET, and CWS, and most of those don’t make sense for other reasons. SF, KC, and TEX make the most sense.
Curious what we’d think fair, realistic value would be.
Projected payroll of ~ 50 mil next year and no long term commitments other than Myers, so they have the $$ to spend.
From the News Thread:
Thought I would add my speculation here:
If this quote is to be believed, then DD is looking strictly at a FA that can play 1B or a trade for a 1Bman that involves only Sox mL players..... Otherwise, if he were to trade (JBJ or Benny) then they would still be in need of a second bat, even after allowing for a Hanley rebound.
Thought I would add my speculation here:
If this quote is to be believed, then DD is looking strictly at a FA that can play 1B or a trade for a 1Bman that involves only Sox mL players..... Otherwise, if he were to trade (JBJ or Benny) then they would still be in need of a second bat, even after allowing for a Hanley rebound.
But that was not the point. You can go 0-for in games when your team scores lots of runs and they probably will win anyway.
so Yanks successfully dump Headley entirely while we're stuck with Hanley. trying to be patient...
Headley's AAV is $13M with one more year to go and no vesting option, he was a league-average hitter in 2017, and he's averaged about 2 WAR over the past three years. All of that compares favorably to Hanley. Headley's not a star anymore (if he ever was), but there's nothing especially toxic about his contract.
EDIT: Or, what moondog80 said.
I'd say it's hugging the line pretty tight, but they definitely did well to find an early taker in full.
Cashman is on fire atm. It's their time to have everything lining up though I guess.
Throwing Mitchell in probably didn't hurt either. He's not an earth-shattering acquisition, but he's a young, cheap pitcher who has value to a team playing its home games in a pitcher's haven like PetCo.
MassLive has a piece up suggesting the Red Sox should be in on Marcell Ozuna. It's an interesting idea, though I don't know if they have the chips to pull it off. He won't be a salary dump like Stanton, I don't think. Of course, I didn't think Stanton would be a pure salary dump either, so...
Here is his 2017 spray chart overlayed with Fenway:
He just had what could be a breakout season at age 26. 312/376/548 with 37 HR. And his pull approach looks like it would play well at Fenway.
Here is his 2017 spray chart overlayed with Fenway:
He just had what could be a breakout season at age 26. 312/376/548 with 37 HR. And his pull approach looks like it would play well at Fenway.
MLBTR, citing a Rosenthal report, says that O's have asked for offers on Machado;
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/orioles-trade-rumor-manny-machado.html
Rosenthal says that Angelos has said he will not trade him to NYY, but no mention of the Sox. He also says that the O's are looking for two young, cost-controlled SPs in return.
Machado would obviously fill the need for a big RH bat, albeit only for one year before he hits FA. Should DD be looking into this? Any way we match up? Would Eduardo and Brian Johnson be too much? Not enough? It would also mean that we'd then be trading XB for a young SP to replace ERod, and we might end up ahead on that.
Personally, I "like" X a lot more than Manny, but Machado is a hell of a player, and probably a better SS as well as a better hitter than X. Worth considering?
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/orioles-trade-rumor-manny-machado.html
Rosenthal says that Angelos has said he will not trade him to NYY, but no mention of the Sox. He also says that the O's are looking for two young, cost-controlled SPs in return.
Machado would obviously fill the need for a big RH bat, albeit only for one year before he hits FA. Should DD be looking into this? Any way we match up? Would Eduardo and Brian Johnson be too much? Not enough? It would also mean that we'd then be trading XB for a young SP to replace ERod, and we might end up ahead on that.
Personally, I "like" X a lot more than Manny, but Machado is a hell of a player, and probably a better SS as well as a better hitter than X. Worth considering?
Considering Cain, Hosmer, and Moustakas are free agents and Perez is probably untouchable, I don't see major league talent match with KC unless it's on the pitching side.
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We have nowhere near the chips for that. Your offer is maybe a third of what it would take
For one season? Doubtful. He's going to make a lot of money in arbitration too.
Teams don't empty their farm system to acquire position players for their last season before free agency.
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