Blacken said:Jerebko is not "a better player", though I would agree that the package of Jerebko and a first-round pick is superior. Green's a better wing defender and an adequate post defender against guys his own size, but he's a worse shooter. I can compensate for shooting more easily than I can defense.
It is tough to really compare a guy who is not only not playing major minutes, but isn't playing a good chunk of games with an every game starter. I'm a big Jerebko fan, but if he played 30 minutes a night every night against starters as a primary option his numbers would tank. He fits this team better in a lot of ways if they can re-sign him cheap, but to most teams in the league Green has much more value.radsoxfan said:
I'm not even sure Green is "better". He looks better, and certainly has the ability go off for the random 30+ point game unlike Jerebko. But just looking at some basic "advanced" stats, Jerebko over the past 3 years has a higher TS%, Reb%, PER, WS/48, etc….
They certainly do not have identical skill sets, and Green has the ability to guard a different group of athletes than Jerebko. But generally speaking, aside from the random "wow, Jef Green could be really good!!" type plays, I'm not sure he is particularly better at NBA basketball.
To look at the whole package, in a vacuum I'd certainly prefer the 27 year old 6'10" role player with a 58% True Shooting% at (likely) reasonable money to the 28 year old 6'9" non rebounding 52% True Shooting% athlete that might get 10M per season.
I'm also not sure defense is automatically harder to find than shooting, plus Green doesn't give consistent defensive effort anyway.
No doubt Jerebko would be miscast as a primary option... I probably wasn't clear, but I wasn't talking about being a primary option. It seems pretty clear to me Green has failed in that role anyway, so I think if teams are giving him extra value based on his chances of being a primary option, that won't end well.Cellar-Door said:It is tough to really compare a guy who is not only not playing major minutes, but isn't playing a good chunk of games with an every game starter. I'm a big Jerebko fan, but if he played 30 minutes a night every night against starters as a primary option his numbers would tank. He fits this team better in a lot of ways if they can re-sign him cheap, but to most teams in the league Green has much more value.
This is a great point. No doubt Jerebko is smart enough to realize what this trade can do for him - revive his stagnating career right before free agency - and he is playing accordingly. His success is also partly a gimmick - he's essentially plying a stretch 5 who can take advantage of being guarded by bigger, slower centers. But if he is overexposed as a starter, there are starting centers who would just chew him up and spit him out in the post. Also, it's not clear what the long term fit is for Jerebko in Boston. His skill set seems to overlap with Olynyk.Koufax said:The effort part is hard to measure right now. Jerebko seems super-motivated to show his stuff. Will he be like that 20 games from now? I have no idea. I don't know what his energy level was like earlier in his career, but it is very high right now, providing a stark contrast to the usual Jeff Green (not the super-Jeff who would show up twice a month).
Jeff probably has more talent. Is he a better player in real life? I don't think so.
Eddie Jurak said:His skill set seems to overlap with Olynyk.
jimv said:
I think that's the more important question - Who does Danny opt for going forward? Is the decision entirely contract driven?
That all seems reasonable. In a podcast with Simmons, Zach Lowe said that from what he has heard, C's brass is very high on Olynyk - they think he has real upside. I don't see it - to me he's got the potential to be a good reserve at best. It may affect their interest in Jerebko.radsoxfan said:
Well Olynyk should have the "value" edge going forward. After this year he is on a 2 year, 5M contract with a 4M qualifying offer the season after that. No idea what Jerebko will get (I'd probably be OK with a 3 year deal at his current salary, which would be 3 years, 13.5M). Of course, Olynyk's contract edge could also be used as added value to another team in a trade.
They certainly overlap somewhat, though I wouldn't say they are identical. Olynyk is a 7 footer with significantly less athleticism. They are both stretch bigs, but Jerebko is more of a PF than Olynyk. Defensively, Olynyk is worse, and definitely shouldn't be guarding on the perimeter.
I don't think signing Jerebko automatically means trading Olynyk, since they can both be part of a successful rotation, but they probably shouldn't be playing together very much. If Olynyk can be included in a trade for a more athletic big (or to move up in the draft to select one), it should definitely be considered even more strongly if Jerebko is coming back.
Eddie Jurak said:That all seems reasonable. In a podcast with Simmons, Zach Lowe said that from what he has heard, C's brass is very high on Olynyk - they think he has real upside. I don't see it - to me he's got the potential to be a good reserve at best. It may affect their interest in Jerebko.
The problem with Olynyk is he needs to touch the ball often on offense. If he's not assertive on that end of the floor, he can only hurt the team. Because other than chipping in on the boards he's not giving you anything else of note.luckiestman said:Olynyk has to have the highest variance of any player on the Celtics when watching. Some games, you're shocked the dude is in the NBA. Then he will have a stretch where he is dominant. He needs to get stronger but that is probably the easiest thing for an athlete to do.