Xander Bogaerts Offense : Warmer than Orlando in January
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When I suggested in a game thread that X could benefit from a chat with Tewksbury, I was told that he was no longer with the Sox, so that would probably not happen. According to the ESPN Boston story it hss happened. Hey, it couldn't hurt
Isn't there an old saw that players need a 1000+ ABs in the minors before they really learn to hit? It's so rare that a prospect blows through the minors and then contributes at the major league level without hitting any speed bumps, it's strange to think that the Red Sox had two of them. I think the struggles of X and JBJ are normal but if the Sox hadn't rushed them, they would be dealing with this stuff in the minors, not the majors.
It's too bad that X didn't get a chance to learn how to play SS in the minors but at this point it is what it is and the fact that he hasn't completely failed and not really making the same mistakes the field over and over is a testament to his upside. I have no doubt that X will be the starting SS in 2015.
Except I never claimed he has proven himself. I pointed out he has had success both defensively and offensively at various points this season.P'tucket said:
it's not that X or JBJ was "rushed." they hit, if not absolutely raked, at every minor league level, excepting JBJ for a bit at AAA. pitchers at the major league level were the first ones to really find exploitable weaknesses and consistently exploit them. what's Xander gonna learn at AAA, that he can really hit pitchers with a fastball a tick slower and breaking balls a tick less nasty? players don't really learn how to correct or mitigate their weakness unless they're being shown what their weaknesses are. the tough part is trying to balance that need for development with a focus on winning baseball games.
And Eddie Gaedel's OBP was 1.000. So what? The FO is supposed to sit down in October and decide they're set for SS next year because he's shown flashes of pretty-goodness in the context of 600 PAs that indicate otherwise?OptimusPapi said:
Or perhaps they realize prospects struggle at first and sometimes having them in the majors is the best way to improve? Look all I am saying is there is good reason X will be in the majors next year.P'tucket said:
Again, this sums it up. They are on a team in last place right now. Everything to be gained by continuing to see ML pitching and fielding opportunities. When Spring Training rolls around next year, they will have a chance to make the 25 man roster. No guarantees now or then. So work hard on it and at it over he next 6 months. I do hope for the best for these guys. They seem to be good character guys. It will work itself out, it always does one way or the other. But play them NOW.P'tucket said:
joyofsox said:
[media]http://youtu.be/jE494P5gQaY[/media]
(BTW, in my last post I wasn't really suggesting that I think they should send Xander down. I agree that in the context of a lost season the kids should be getting as much MLB experience as possible. I was just objecting to the notion that if you send anyone down it's JBJ.)
Xander is 21 years old. Lots of great players were still in the minors at that age or struggled a lot in the majors. He's an entirely different level of prospect than JBJ. I am absolutely certain he's going to have an impact bat and be at least an average defender at some position. I doubt it will be shortstop though.
It seems very likely, given his age, MiLB performance, and the first few months of his MLB career, that Bogaerts will be better than the 13th-worst hitter in the majors. But it's far from clear that he will be the superstar we were all hoping for.
I think there was always a distinct possibility that he was merely an average starter, rather than boom or bust. We thought his makeup would let him make any necessary adjustments but sometimes that doesn't quite happen; hitting is very difficult. See someone like Colby Rasmus, who was a consensus top 5 prospect for multiple years, and has just one above-average season to his name.
I think we tend to very often forget this possibility when projecting guys. That said, it is still far too early as others have pointed out.
I think there was always a distinct possibility that he was merely an average starter, rather than boom or bust. We thought his makeup would let him make any necessary adjustments but sometimes that doesn't quite happen; hitting is very difficult. See someone like Colby Rasmus, who was a consensus top 5 prospect for multiple years, and has just one above-average season to his name.
I think we tend to very often forget this possibility when projecting guys. That said, it is still far too early as others have pointed out.
As much as anything, the pattern stands out. Xander's season started with an extended period of him "hanging in there", followed by about a month of elite hitting, followed by a huge and shocking collapse. Add in his strong performance in the playoffs last year, and that the Sox have kept him in the majors and in the lineup throughout, and it paints a very weird picture.
-pasting my post from the game thread cuz it seems to be appropriate here-
I've been dead set against sending X down but this weekend may have changed my mind. The never ending mental lapses in the field, the lack of adjustment at the plate. He certainly talks a good game - refer to that ESPNJoeyMac tweet upthread - but doesn't back it up. Maybe some time in AAA will get things pointed in the right direction.
X heading into the offseason with a little bit anger and frustration at being sent down might not be a bad thing
I've been dead set against sending X down but this weekend may have changed my mind. The never ending mental lapses in the field, the lack of adjustment at the plate. He certainly talks a good game - refer to that ESPNJoeyMac tweet upthread - but doesn't back it up. Maybe some time in AAA will get things pointed in the right direction.
X heading into the offseason with a little bit anger and frustration at being sent down might not be a bad thing
jimv said:
He'll be down for two weeks then back up at the start of September when the AAA season ends and rosters expand. How mad will he really be through the off-season? The time to "send a message" or "light a fire" by demoting him has passed for this season.
If the team was in contention and they had a superior alternative to play in his place for which they needed the roster spot, I could see a demotion. But there is no alternative and the team is well out of it. There's absolutely zero harm that can come from him continuing to get regular playing time and "figuring things out" right where he is.
An alternative I'd consider would be Brock Holt getting 2-3 starts at SS a week. If Xander was hurt for an extended period next season, could Brock hold down SS full time? I'd like to find that out now.Red(s)HawksFan said:
I also wonder if Xander isn't quite 'there' physically yet. He started off great this year but completely melted away as the season trudged on. I'd like to see him get 2-3 days off a week to see if it may be a 'physically mature/conditioning' issue. Then get him into API, alongside DP, in the off-season.
benhogan said:
I doubt they're going to learn anything about Brock Holt as a SS in the last 6 weeks of the season that they haven't already learned from him playing nearly two seasons worth of games at SS in the minors. Particularly if he's only playing SS part-time.
Also, they've got Marrero down at Pawtucket who is probably going to get the first call should something happen to Bogaerts next year.
If it wasn't a microcosm of what we've seen from him over the entire season this wouldn't be highlighted nearly as much as it is. Bogaerts needs to figure the bat out before we even have to worry about finding a permanent position for him but it has seemed evident at least to me that SS certainly isn't that position. Frankly I'm surprised the Sox moved him back there this year but at this point it really doesn't matter as if he can't make adjustments at the plate it's irrelevant.Night of the Keyboard said:
Humbling experiences such as this can prove invaluable. As would the old Chipper Jones "supplement" program to build his body. The kid has too much offensive potential to be out there with the body of a 1970's middle infielder.jimv said:
benhogan said:
HomeRunBaker said:
I'm sure getting a little stronger would help Bogaerts at the plate, but strength or lack thereof can't explain his poor approach at the plate, especially with men in scoring position, and the way he's being eaten alive by sliders.
Besides, you can be skinny and still be a great hitter.
Even Foxx looks average there compared with today's power guys. Williams said when Foxx was taking batting practice, the sound was like nobody else's hits (like rifle shots) and he would always go out to watch him even if he was back in the clubhouse.
A stronger player will produce a more confident player (this is one of the benefits of the steroid era) so I wouldn't say a stronger more confident X won't help his approach.curly2 said:
HomeRunBaker said:
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for X getting stronger and think it will help (it couldn't hurt unless he got TOO big), but he's already shown last year at the Toilet he's strong enough to hit the ball 430 feet. The problem is more pitch recognition, trying to pull outside pitches, etc.
geoduck no quahog said:
Ill-timed bump, I guess, but I'm surprised that this hasn't been getting more play. Would a trip to the minors or a session with Colbrunn/Rodriguez even fix this?
Per Farrell postgame, "Still showing some symptoms of a mild concussion.
Sox will purchase contract of infielder Carlos Rivero, which fills out their 40-man roster.
Sox will purchase contract of infielder Carlos Rivero, which fills out their 40-man roster.
Gordon Edes @GordonEdes 5m
Bogaerts pops out w/bases loaded. He is 7 for 69 (.101) in Aug, tied with Glenn Hoffman for second lowest average ever in August for Sox
Scott Lauber @ScottLauber 6m
Bogaerts hoped he'd return from concussion with clear head, literally and figuratively. 1-for-last-29
Bogaerts pops out w/bases loaded. He is 7 for 69 (.101) in Aug, tied with Glenn Hoffman for second lowest average ever in August for Sox
Scott Lauber @ScottLauber 6m
Bogaerts hoped he'd return from concussion with clear head, literally and figuratively. 1-for-last-29
Through the first six games of September, his BABIP is .368 - very similar to his March/Apriloumbi said:
The more pertinent item so far in September has been his reduced K rate. Just 5 so far in 29 PAs. Of course, he also hasn't walked a single time, but it would be nice to see him finish September with a K rate at or below 20%. He's just not going to succeed at this juncture of his career with a ~25% K rate.
He's just made for the cold weather... or something. Ignoring that it hasn't been that cold recently.
Those splits make perfect sense if one notes that X was hit on the wrist IIRC in consecutive games on June 3 and 4. I'm hoping like hell that those HBPs are the cause of his long 60 game slump and he's hitting better now because the wrist is finally feeling better and he's able to swing with more authority.
Let's also note that his OPS+ last year in limited action was 88 and this year it's 84. If he remains hot through the end of the season he'll likely be right around the same numbers that he had in the regular season last year. So perhaps this year was an extended breaking-in period for him.
He'll be 22 on October 1. This isn't some guy like Middlebrooks or Workman, who are both 26 and essentially done as prospects now due to age and horrific big league performance. This kid has a lot more potential to reach.
Let's also note that his OPS+ last year in limited action was 88 and this year it's 84. If he remains hot through the end of the season he'll likely be right around the same numbers that he had in the regular season last year. So perhaps this year was an extended breaking-in period for him.
He'll be 22 on October 1. This isn't some guy like Middlebrooks or Workman, who are both 26 and essentially done as prospects now due to age and horrific big league performance. This kid has a lot more potential to reach.
Eric would only post that chart if he could include a mystery player B, which would be Nomar's worst 60 games in his rookie year once we clicked on the spoiler tag.Trotsky said:
FWIW Xander did say that this season he wasn't able to generate the bat speed he usually does (forgive me, I can't find the source on that). A minor wrist injury would jive with that.
Don't blame Workman for the Red Sox putting him in the wrong role. Put him in Mujica's role and you've got a solid pitcher for 1/8 the price, but I guess that's not relevant because getting 0 production out of a $4 million investment in a relief pitcher is somehow better than getting $18 million of production out of a $22 million investment in a starting pitcher.Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
O Captain! My Captain! said:
On top of that, he's played a ton of baseball over the past 16 months. I hold out hope it's mostly as simple as that.
If you look carefully at the story arc of Xander's year, it starts to look like a pretty ordinary story of a very young player who gets thrown off his game for a while when he hits a bump, then recovers his momentum after a short break.
Through April and May, he went through some ups and downs, but mostly was continuing to get better, and gaining momentum through late May. By early June he was OPSing in the mid-.800s.
On June 2 he was moved to 3B for Drew. Two days later, he had an 0-for-5 that began a six-week, 129-PA stretch of .304 OPS offense.
Then came the All-Star break. He had four days off and come back hot, OPSing .870 for the rest of July.
Then Drew was traded, and his role changed again. Yes, it changed to the role he presumably wanted, but it was still another bump. And sure enough, he cratered again: .323 OPS over three weeks and 76 PA.
Then, once again, he got a few days off--this time the concussion DL stint.
And once again, he came back hot: .967 OPS since then (and that's not counting today's game).
He's a very young player who's gone through a lot of transitions in the past year, and I think what we're seeing is that he is capable of losing his equilibrium a bit under the stress of those transitions--but then, given a little time off to catch his breath, he comes back strong again. I think it's reasonable to hope that next year, with this experience under his belt, he will bounce back more quickly from the twists and turns and we'll see a lot more of the >.800 guy.
Through April and May, he went through some ups and downs, but mostly was continuing to get better, and gaining momentum through late May. By early June he was OPSing in the mid-.800s.
On June 2 he was moved to 3B for Drew. Two days later, he had an 0-for-5 that began a six-week, 129-PA stretch of .304 OPS offense.
Then came the All-Star break. He had four days off and come back hot, OPSing .870 for the rest of July.
Then Drew was traded, and his role changed again. Yes, it changed to the role he presumably wanted, but it was still another bump. And sure enough, he cratered again: .323 OPS over three weeks and 76 PA.
Then, once again, he got a few days off--this time the concussion DL stint.
And once again, he came back hot: .967 OPS since then (and that's not counting today's game).
He's a very young player who's gone through a lot of transitions in the past year, and I think what we're seeing is that he is capable of losing his equilibrium a bit under the stress of those transitions--but then, given a little time off to catch his breath, he comes back strong again. I think it's reasonable to hope that next year, with this experience under his belt, he will bounce back more quickly from the twists and turns and we'll see a lot more of the >.800 guy.
I don't want to re-start the Drew conversation again, but it really does point out the difficulty of trying to break in young players while also trying to be strong contenders. I tend to disagree a bit with assessments of Xander's defense - his worst thing is the pivot and it's clear he is not comfortable. But, obviously excepting prodigal defensive players, the pivot is something you learn as you get the rhythm of your double play partner. I don't think Xander is prodigal defensively, but he seems to have basic tools to be an average-ish defender over there, his routes to the balls are not bad and his initial reaction to the ball seems to be right more often than not. Unfortunately, right now he plays almost every ball as if he is repeating in his head "just make a decent throw just make a decent throw." I suppose he could be Steve Saxed already but I would give him time to work it out. I'm not going to get into whether that affected his offense and development.
Point being, a season where you are going to finish 20 games out is the perfect opportunity to give a player like Xander plenty of reps, but they scuttled this opportunity with the idea that they could contend, and signed Drew. I don't blame them, but it's a stark reminder of how difficult it is going to be to execute their plans.
Point being, a season where you are going to finish 20 games out is the perfect opportunity to give a player like Xander plenty of reps, but they scuttled this opportunity with the idea that they could contend, and signed Drew. I don't blame them, but it's a stark reminder of how difficult it is going to be to execute their plans.
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