So I have had the misfortune of having to do more of a deep dive on the XFL than I really cared to do, but in the interest of preparing myself for the future arguments with moronic wrestling fans who believe that the XFL is totally going to work, I had to do some research, and my original conclusion of "This is a really fucking stupid idea" has not changed.
The TV deals suck for the XFL. The one way to make money on this thing, the one way I thought Vince might actually be able to pull this off, is if some TV network or streaming service would be willing to throw money at the XFL with the idea of recruiting a niche (VERY niche) product under its umbrella. If ESPN or DAZN gave Vince $50 million a year or whatever for his crappy football league, it could have worked.
Instead, the XFL couldn't get anyone to actually pay for the stupid thing, so the gameplan now is that for the first three seasons the XFL will air virtually for free (the XFL will save an estimated $17.2 million per season by the networks agreeing to handle the production costs) with the idea that after the three seasons, the XFL will have garnered enough of a following and enough viewership to justify a network to actually offer a paying contract.
I really doubt that the XFL will be able to do that, especially because they are in major markets with competing NFL teams. There is almost no surer way in this country to lose money than to attempt to start a new professional sports league, and fans in New York and Chicago are not going to be clamoring for minor league football; freezing their asses off in February and March to watch a bad product. We just saw this experiment with the AAF, who like the XFL, had great television exposure on major networks, totally fall flat on its face.
However, nobody really knows what rights fees for live sports are going to be in 2024, when the three year window is up. Right now the belief in the television industry is that live sports is going to be the key to television because it generates a ton of content, is simple enough to produce, and is somewhat DVR proof. That is why the NFL, NBA, UFC, WWE, etc. have gotten big, huge TV deals despite in some cases, viewership being on the decline for those products. If in 2024 networks are still desperate for live sports, maybe someone takes the plunge on paying for the XFL, they didn't in 2019, but nobody really knows what the landscape is going to be. Complicating matters for Vince and the XFL could be that I have reason to believe that the WWE's new deal on FOX is going to bomb and that isn't going to be great negotiating leverage for the XFL.
The difference between the AAF and the XFL right now is that Vince is reportedly willing to lose more money for a longer period of time than anyone in the AAF was. Vince has $350 million of his own fortune ready to blow over the first three seasons, and since the AAF was losing $10 million a week, that seems like a fair estimate to assume what it's going to cost over those first three seasons with no TV money. Vince's attitude is that he is going to be willing to spend more and last longer than any other minor league organization, and that eventually he will be successful. I doubt it.