Yet another Pats draft poll--Your preference, 5 weeks out
- Thread starter DJnVa
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Maye or Daniels with #3. Then an OT or top WR with their second round pick. Then the OT or WR with their third round pick.
So I've built it up in my head that Maye is the guy and Daniels isn't, in which case I would trade back if Maye goes 2. But really, I have to trust in whatever their judgment is on the QBs. If they don't love the guy at 3, I'm fine trading back. They just can't get that wrong though.
I dont really know Orlovsky's track record, but he has Daniels as the #1 QB in the draft, so we'll be able to talk ourselves into whatever QB we're left with.
Im now thinking Pats should ask for the moon and the stars, and you move the pick if you can get that in a deal. Load up on assets and take a QB or two later. If you cant get the moon and stars, you take QB at 3 and go from there.
Draft Maye/Daniels. But if you want to dangle the pick to gauge the market, fine. They just better get a massive haul if they actually trade it.
Define the moon and stars. Say it's Minnesota. Is 11, 23, and their 1st rounder next year enough?
His track record is like everyone else's, a mixed bag. Was super high on Stroud last year, but was also pretty high on guys like Zach Wilson, Fields and Ridder. He also liked Mac Jones, and has been very, very vocal in his opinion that the Pats ruined him.
And two months ago, he had Maye as his #1 over Caleb, and never mentioned Daniels during an interview with EEI.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O68ZsiPVRHM
This is where I am as well. And I think you and I are the 2 votes that went that way.
I'm not sold on Daniels, but I won't shit on the pick if they like him and take him.
Interesting. Heres his take from a week or two ago:
View: https://youtu.be/hf14aPGiBx8?si=_zGl6zmCCCiyl7-z
View: https://youtu.be/hf14aPGiBx8?si=_zGl6zmCCCiyl7-z
I'd take that deal in a heartbeat.
Drafting a top 5 QB into a dumpster fire never helps to put the dumpster fire out, it just adds more fuel. The Pats are a dumpster fire right now. Trade back, get lots of assets, then take a QB toward the bottom of the first round or top of the second, sit him for two years and build up the team around him.
I'm super high on Maye, so if somehow he falls to #3, I could see drafting him, but I'm worried they'd start him right away which would be a mistake.
I think they should still take the best QB available and draft a QB flier in the 4-7 rounds.
If MJH is available, it's going to be very hard not to want the team to draft him. He'll become expensive very quickly though, so might be easier to let that one go and build from the QB first
I'd ask for more than this. Either a useful starting player or a R3 pick in addition to those picks.
We literally have evidence of this not being the case this season with Houston.
Maye/Daniels at 3, then Joe Milton much later - all the mocks have him going like 6th round or so. He's got enough talent to be intriguing as a late round flyer.
I was thinking 11,23, a 3rd and Jordan Addison for #3 and a 4th.
But regardless, I just don't see when the next opportunity would be to get a QB that would be as promising and efficient a multi-year solution as Maye/Daniels. Even if you thought JJ McCarthy was acceptable (and I don't), you can't count on landing him with anything less than the 5th pick... and I have even less interest in the Penix/Nix lottery tickets in round 2.
bz
I like Maye a bit more than Daniels at this point, especially for a rebuild, but I think both are very good prospects and if you pass on them you have no real path to a top prospect, and QB is too important to pass. If the guy busts.. oh well, it happens, the upside of a top QB is just so much higher than any other position.
This 100%. Although I'd go a step further and steer away from drafting an earlier round QB period for now, and would instead stack Brissett with another younger FA vet flyer like Dobbs. As I personally like the overall probability odds of hitting on something that ends up being a good thing for you guys better going down that route.
Don't be the pre-Darnold/Zach Jets chasing after the sell of a magic wand fix. Fleece Minny who I think are there for the fleecing. Pile up some more talent, don't get too terrible team caught up in some pressured need to see a 5 move ahead Grand Slam outcome, and worry more about the "franchise QB" outlook after a first year evaluation on whether you even came out ahead on this whole not-wiped clean transition away from the Bill B era.
We also literally have evidence that QBs can play at a highest level well into their 40s. Not only is that reading too much into an all time great season outlier imo, but it also (for opposing narrative purposes) totally understates just how much else Houston (who gets to play out of the cupcake division) appears to have gotten really right last winter within the effort of creating that outcome. Slowik bringing over some of that Shanahan magic might of helped in that too
Josh Dobbs is 29. And there's ample evidence he's not the QB answer to any question the Pats are asking. He's thrown about 500 passes in his career, about a full season's worth. He has 15 TD and 13 INT, averages only 5.8 YPA, and he's 3-11.
Nothing of the last few weeks has really changed my position. Top-10ish QBs very rarely ever hit free agency and if they do there's usually a huge price tag and massive caveats. Trading for one will likely cost you a draft or two of top picks or even more if it's one without huge warts. If they think Daniels or Maye has a semi-reasonable chance at that, it's the choice.
I think there are fringe arguments for taking a Godfather package, but entertaining "good" offers without a QB solution in place feels a bit fool hardy. Like 11/23/1st was mentioned here and that's short of what I'd want unless they're entirely out on Daniels and Maye.
The Bears got #9, #61, 2024 R1 (turned out to be #1), 2025 R2, and DJ Moore for the first pick and rights to Bryce Young (1st overall) (2023)
The Titans got #15, #43, #45, #76, 2017 R1and 2017 R3 for the pick to take Jared Goff.
The Cardinals got #12, #33, 2024 R1and 2024 R3 for the #3 pick (with both QBs off the board) and #105 (2023)
The Dolphins got #12, R1 22, R3 22, and R1 23 for the #3 pick (used to take Trey Lance)
These teams also had what they considered QB solutions at the time
In non-draft world
The Browns gave up R1 2022, R1 2023, R1 2024, as well as three R3/R4 picks for the rights to Deshaun Watson as a free agent.
The Seahawks got R1 2022, R1 2023, R2 2022, R2 2023, and R5 2022 and three players for the rights to Russell Wilson and R4 222.
Like, 11/23/1st is probably roughly in line with what the Dolphins got (move down 8-9 picks, the R1 two years down the line and the R3 the following year is probably roughly equivalent value wise to the #23 this year - the trade isn't unfair, but I struggle to think Miami doesn't make that trade if they weren't in on Tua. For a team like New England, I think the pot needs to be sweetened more than that to pass on a QB as the Watson and Wilson trades show how truly expensive it is to acquire them after the fact.
I think there are fringe arguments for taking a Godfather package, but entertaining "good" offers without a QB solution in place feels a bit fool hardy. Like 11/23/1st was mentioned here and that's short of what I'd want unless they're entirely out on Daniels and Maye.
The Bears got #9, #61, 2024 R1 (turned out to be #1), 2025 R2, and DJ Moore for the first pick and rights to Bryce Young (1st overall) (2023)
The Titans got #15, #43, #45, #76, 2017 R1and 2017 R3 for the pick to take Jared Goff.
The Cardinals got #12, #33, 2024 R1and 2024 R3 for the #3 pick (with both QBs off the board) and #105 (2023)
The Dolphins got #12, R1 22, R3 22, and R1 23 for the #3 pick (used to take Trey Lance)
These teams also had what they considered QB solutions at the time
In non-draft world
The Browns gave up R1 2022, R1 2023, R1 2024, as well as three R3/R4 picks for the rights to Deshaun Watson as a free agent.
The Seahawks got R1 2022, R1 2023, R2 2022, R2 2023, and R5 2022 and three players for the rights to Russell Wilson and R4 222.
Like, 11/23/1st is probably roughly in line with what the Dolphins got (move down 8-9 picks, the R1 two years down the line and the R3 the following year is probably roughly equivalent value wise to the #23 this year - the trade isn't unfair, but I struggle to think Miami doesn't make that trade if they weren't in on Tua. For a team like New England, I think the pot needs to be sweetened more than that to pass on a QB as the Watson and Wilson trades show how truly expensive it is to acquire them after the fact.
I'd ask for next year's second as well.
The thing that's bothering me is the TERRIBLE track record of early-drafted QBs. The article below is mind-blowing -- the chances that all 3 QBs drafted 1-3 will be above-average is close to zero. I'd much prefer to get more swings at the ball than roll the dice that pick #3 will be the franchise's savior.
https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-ranking-every-quarterback-class-since-2000
I'm with this mostly. Any trade offer for #3 needs to be one that is such a catastrophic overpay that the other GM might never get a job again. Like folks would be talking about this overpay for a decade at least before I'm even thinking about not taking one of the big 3 QBs with pick 3.
The Pats have a desperate need for a franchise QB. There are three guys that virtually every scout has as potential franchise QBs. If the Pats trade out of that and the guy that gets taken #3 becomes that guy, the entire Pats front office would rightly receive ungodly amounts of criticism and should never hold important jobs in the NFL again.
All day. But my guess is they could get slightly more than that from Minn.
Minn is not going to suddenly be a top team. They are in a division with the up and coming Lions, Packers and Bears and are going to start either Sam Darnold or a rookie QB, with Hockenson coming back from an ACL injury. It wouldn't be surprising to have this 2025 draft pick be in the 8-14 range next year. With the Pats likely having a top 10 pick, and a ton of cap room that they can proactively create more space for, that's a lot of firepower over two years to turn things around.
I thought this at first, but there are a few mitigating factors:
- Lots of times these guys are known as overdrafts at the time and they go top 5 because someone needs a QB badly. There are also a lot of picks that are just made by franchises who had no direction and bad leadership at the time, like every Jets pick, Bortles, Harrington/ Carr. If that's the case with this Patriots team we will find out in other ways and this conversation doesn't matter much.
- I would expect that QB evaluation, particularly mental side, has improved since the early 2000s. JaMarcus Russell would probably not go #1 today (I would hope) so a lot of the history is irrelevant.
- There is no rule that there has to be an equal number of good prospects every year or that 3 can't be successful in the same year. If you need a QB and it's a bad year you might reach too (see bullet 1), so guys get a first round pick label when really they are not first round prospects (Pickett comes to mind). Sometimes there aren't good prospects but this year there are 3.
- I pay little attention to college, but it feels like some of the guys who didn't do as great in the pros were those who rocketed up draft lists based on their performance in their final year while the players who had been considered strong prospects their whole careers did better. Like, Luck, Mannings, Stafford, Lawrence, were all huge HS prospects and never really lost their status as "potential franchise guys" from their first college game. Daniels has risen up lists this year based on his play but the other two have been pretty much consensus all year (which makes me feel a little better about Maye)
Are there, though? Two, sure. And if there was any reason to believe that Daniels or Williams would be available with the third pick, I'd say QB no question. Same if we had landed Ridley. But I'm not sure Maye is in the same class as those two, and the question then becomes do you want the third-best QB or the clear #1 WR? I don't think it's as obvious to go with the QB as everyone else seems to.
QB at 3 and anything else I'm going to be disappointed. Maye, Daniels, doesn't matter. I'm no QB expert, so I don't really care who it is. And yes, I know that's not the best way to approach drafting a potential franchise QB, but that's where my heart is at.
If the Pats trade out, I'll assume they didn't like the guy and will talk myself into the move, but what a massive set of balls you've got to have to trade out. Get it wrong and a lot of people are going to lose their jobs.
My biggest issue with trading out is I don't see a clear plan to address QB other than "kick the can down the road" and hope and pray that a franchise QB falls in your lap. You're passing on the top 4 QB's in this draft, so at best you're getting a project or a guy with a lower ceiling (Nix/Penix/Rattler/Pratt) if you take one in R2 or R3. Next year's class looks to be uninspiring at this point. Are the Pats going to use all this cap space for a top free agent next year (Love, T-Law, Tua, Dak), hoping that one of those guys walks away from their current team?
If the Pats trade out, I'll assume they didn't like the guy and will talk myself into the move, but what a massive set of balls you've got to have to trade out. Get it wrong and a lot of people are going to lose their jobs.
My biggest issue with trading out is I don't see a clear plan to address QB other than "kick the can down the road" and hope and pray that a franchise QB falls in your lap. You're passing on the top 4 QB's in this draft, so at best you're getting a project or a guy with a lower ceiling (Nix/Penix/Rattler/Pratt) if you take one in R2 or R3. Next year's class looks to be uninspiring at this point. Are the Pats going to use all this cap space for a top free agent next year (Love, T-Law, Tua, Dak), hoping that one of those guys walks away from their current team?
Here are all the QBs drafted with the second or third pick in the draft in the past 10 years or so. Quite a trend to buck (aside from Stroud): CJ Stroud (drafted 2d, 2023), Trey Lance (drafted 3d, 2021), Sam Darnold (drafted 3d, 2018), Blake Bortles (drafted 3d, 2014), Zach Wilson (drafted 2d, 2021), Mitch Trubisky (drafted 2d, 2017), Carson Wentz (drafted 2d, 2016), Marcus Mariota (drafted 2d, 2015)
They didn't only change the QB. They also changed the head coach. It looks like Ryans is turning the franchise around. We can only hope that Mayo looks like as good of a hire this time next year, but the odds are against it.
These guys really have nothing to do with whether or not Daniels or Maye is gonna be good.
WIlliams and Maye have been consensus top of the board picks since last year. Daniels has now joined them. There really aren't too many that think they're being overdrafted at top 3 (and of course you can always find someone that says so, but generally speaking...). You heard plenty of that regarding Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, etc.
This is pretty much where I’m at. I am not sold on Maye, not a fan of his “do I throw or scramble” decision making. But I’m fine if they take him, knowing full we he may not end up to be much better than Zach Wilson.
Draft whichever Qb is available at 3. They’ve already structured things with the JB signing so that guy can largely sit and learn in 2024. I’d tend to lean towards Maye, but would be fine with taking Daniels as well. Use the rest of their capital to address OL, receiver, TE, and defensive depth. There is risk and a track record of some these guys flaming out, but if you have a need, and a QB with a consensus evaluation as a franchise guy is available, you have to take the swing, IMO. The one wildcard to me is Pennix. If there was high confidence he would be around in the second, taking MHJ at 3 would be very tempting to me. Seems like Pennix will be off the board before then though.
I'm with you on this. I would love for the Pats to try to trade up to take Williams. However, now that Fields is gone it seems very unlikely that Chicago will trade the 1st. There was speculation a while ago that Williams did not want to go to Chicago and was considering opting out of this years draft if they had the first pick. That has been shot down since. Even if it were true, they most likely would only trade with Washington, to make sure they get their next best choice QB. Trading with NE still leaves them open to not getting a QB that they really want.
Maybe I'd take that deal but only...only if they can definitely get JJ McCarthy with 11. But I voted take whatever QB... Daniels or Maye at 3.
Daniels and the MHJ for me, why, cause that's what I would like to see. Do I think it's the best business, or what would happen no. But it would be fun as heck to cheer for Daniels/Williams or MHJ. Maye is probably fun, but MHJ would be really fun. And after the past few years, fun is missing.
This is 100% correct. The reason we have 3 QB's at the top of the draft this year is because they are as good as prospects as any draft class in memory. Drake Maye coming out of HS was the #1 in NC, #4 QB in his class and #21 ranked player overall. Caleb Williams was the #2 QB (Quinn Ewers who is still at TX and may be the top QB next year was #1 in the class per 247sports). Daniels is really the only guy to shoot up the boards do to his final season work in college.
Just because Tua went 5th, Herbert went 6th, Josh Allen went 7th, Hurts went 53rd, Mahomes went 10th doesn't mean those spots are better to draft a QB than #2 or #3. Shit, McCaffrey went 8th in the same draft that Fournette went 4th. It doesn't mean that 8th is where you find the next McCaffrey. Mike Evans went 7th overall in the 2014 draft. John Ross went 7th in the 2015 draft. Neither have anything to do with the other when it comes to projecting out.
I think you go QB especially since this draft in particular is a good draft for tackles and receivers. Just because you don't draft a stud like Alt doesn't mean you are out on getting an impact player. Receiver, the same.
Preference is for Maye because of his upside, his physicality, and his scheme fit with AVP; I see Daniels as less of a scheme fit with a high potential for injury but he could be so much fun. I'd be happy with either.
There are still some draft guys who are really high on McCarthy so I don't think you can rule him out completely but it would be a surprise at 3.
Preference is for Maye because of his upside, his physicality, and his scheme fit with AVP; I see Daniels as less of a scheme fit with a high potential for injury but he could be so much fun. I'd be happy with either.
There are still some draft guys who are really high on McCarthy so I don't think you can rule him out completely but it would be a surprise at 3.
You should see the track record of non-early-drafted QBs!
That's the problem with this discussion in a nutshell. It simultaneously can be the case that the QB we might draft at #3 has only a ~25% chance of being the type of QB we're all hoping for AND the case that this is by far our most likely pathway to getting that kind of QB within the next 3-4 years. More swings at the ball sounds good unless each swing (ie, a QB drafted out of the first round) only connects like 3-4% of the time and also takes at least a year to evaluate so doing that repetitively can mean blowing five years in QB purgatory buying lottery tickets.
Not having a top 10ish QB sucks, especially in today's NFL, and there's no easy way to find one.
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I don't think many people thought that. It was considered very good, but only Lawrence was a multi-year top prospect. I think you could make the case that 2021 had a deeper tier 2, ie a top 5 vs a top 3 but the top 3 this year is better than 2021. I think there is a good case that this is the best top 3 QBs since 2012. 2015 had a big top 2 but no 3rd, 2017 had a good top 3, but the NFL kind of underrated 2 of them, 2020 is probably the closest top 3 more recently.
No way, not IMO. At least not the top 3. I think Lawrence and Caleb Williams are probably comparable in terms of hype and how long they've been talked about as their class' #1. But Drake Maye is a next level prospect compared to Zach Wilson or Trey Lance (who went #2 and #3). Zach Wilson coming out of high school was the 13th ranked player in Utah. Drake Maye was the 21st ranked player in the country. He turned down offers from schools like Idaho and Fresno State to go to BYU, while Maye was turning down offers from Bama and Georgia and Clemson (because he has a family legacy at UNC). Trey Lance was recruited by nobody coming out of high school, ended up at North Dakota State where he barely threw the ball for one season, then got hurt the following season, then declared for the draft. Daniels just won the Heisman playing in the SEC.
The only thing these 3 guys have in common is the position they play, and the position they'll be drafted.
My understanding is that #11, #23 and next year's 1st rounder would NOT be enough to get to #3, especially when #3 is one of three elite QB prospects in this draft. #11, #23 an a future 1st rounder is the START of that comp. Add another 2nd or a pro bowl level player...and maybe. And even then I say, No thanks.
Maye/Daniels. Don't overthink.
Maye/Daniels. Don't overthink.
QB at 3 unless they REALLY don’t feel good about him which seems hard to believe.
Mays and Daniels both seem like solid blue-chip candidates that you may not have a shot at once you think the team is finally “ready”.
O/W I’m trading down (MHJ seems like a luxury) to try and get my LT and WR and/or best developmental QB they can get their hands on.
I feel like they have come out of the draft with somebody who could at least theoretically be a franchise QB and start taking shots at that.
With Brisset they don’t have to rush anybody (either at 3 or maybe a McCarthy or Penix further down?) so I’m less worried about them wrecking a young QB.
Mays and Daniels both seem like solid blue-chip candidates that you may not have a shot at once you think the team is finally “ready”.
O/W I’m trading down (MHJ seems like a luxury) to try and get my LT and WR and/or best developmental QB they can get their hands on.
I feel like they have come out of the draft with somebody who could at least theoretically be a franchise QB and start taking shots at that.
With Brisset they don’t have to rush anybody (either at 3 or maybe a McCarthy or Penix further down?) so I’m less worried about them wrecking a young QB.
This is a QB league. You don't win anything of consequence without very good QB play. The best chance of getting very good QB play is to draft a QB in the first round.
So unless this is a Danny Ainge/Markelle Fultz situation, take a QB at #3.
If you don't trust the front office and Mayo to put a decent enough OL in front of a rookie QB as to not get him killed, then why would you trust the front office and Mayo to nail a series of non-QB picks that will dramatically upgrade the team?
So unless this is a Danny Ainge/Markelle Fultz situation, take a QB at #3.
If you don't trust the front office and Mayo to put a decent enough OL in front of a rookie QB as to not get him killed, then why would you trust the front office and Mayo to nail a series of non-QB picks that will dramatically upgrade the team?