Your 2015 Boston Red Sox

Status
Not open for further replies.

pdub

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 2, 2007
517
I really hope the team gives JBJ some time to work on at least becoming a mediocre hitter. His defense alone is just outstanding. 
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
Sprowl said:
Your 2015 Boston Red Sox are playing today in Kansas City.
 
 
Betts, Rf
Pedroia, 2b
Ortiz, DH
Cespedes, LF
Napoli, 1b
X, 3b
Castillo, Cf
Jaso, C
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
 

ScubaSteveAvery

Master of the Senate
SoSH Member
Jul 29, 2007
8,329
Everywhere
Betts' arm is a horrible fit for RF.  I think you have to get Cespedes comfortable out there and move Betts to LF.  I'm not sure what Cabrera brings to the table?  He has some pop but he doesn't walk and struggles to post an OPS above .700. 
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
12,408
A placeholder really. I expect they'll look for a proven veteran starter willing to take a 1 year contract at SS or 3B, and play X at the other spot. I'd prefer a 3b, actually, but I don't see any out there. I like the way Cecchini finished 2014 more than the way Marrero did. So letting Cecchini consolidate at AAA in '15 and take over in '16 would be cool.
 

ScubaSteveAvery

Master of the Senate
SoSH Member
Jul 29, 2007
8,329
Everywhere
I think they let Bogaerts play another season at SS.  The footwork is a bit of a mess, which I think exacerbates his arm accuracy; however, both are fixable problems.  He's a young guy without a lot of total experience at the position so I think they give him enough rope for another season.  Hopefully in one of the trades they make this season, they grab a backup SS for depth in case Bogaerts turns out to be a total disaster. 
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Tyrone Biggums said:
Uehara will be back unless something crazy occurs. They'll offer him a QO just to cover their asses. However if he does leave I have been impressed with Mujica since the middle of May and think he could be a big part of the pen next year. Miller is always out there as well but I'm guessing that a non contender will give him a shot to close.
 
Mujica has not been impressive for any significant stretch this season.
 
FIP by month: 4.57, 6.21, 2.79, 3.41, 2.33, 3.25
xFIP by month: 4.93, 3.97, 2.04, 3.85, 4.20, 4.39
 
He was very good in June. Outside of that, he's been mediocre or worse and his xFIP for the last two months has been pretty poor for a reliever. I wouldn't count on Mujica for too much in 2015. He could be a decent middle reliever, but he probably shouldn't be getting a ton of high leverage opportunities.
 

TomRicardo

rusty cohlebone
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 6, 2006
20,721
Row 14
So 2015 Red Sox without any pick ups would be:
 
Betts 3B (?)
Pedroia 2B 
Ortiz DH
Napoli 1B
Cespedes LF
Bogaerts SS
Victorino RF
Castillo CF
Vasquez C
 
Bench:
Lavarnway/Butler C
Holt IF
Craig 1B/OF
Nava OF
 
Rotation:
Buccholz
Kelly
De La Rosa
Webster
Ranuado
 
Bullpen:
Workman
Tazawa
Mujica
Layne
Badenhop
Breslow
Wilson
 
Pawtucket:
 
Swihart C
Shaw 1B
Coyle 2B
Marrero SS
Cecchini 3B
Hassan RF
Bradley CF
Brentz LF
Middlebrooks DH
 
Rotation:
Barnes
Owens
Johnson
Escobar
Rodriquez
Wright
 
Bullpen:
Hembree
Britton
 
Top Ten Prospects:
 
Swihart C PAW
Owens  LHP PAW
Rodriguez LHP PAW
Devers 3B GRE
Johnson LHP PAW
Margot OF SAL
Barnes RHP PAW
Ranuado RHP BOS
Ball LHP SAL
Coyle 2B PAW
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Plympton91 said:
Betts, Rf
Pedroia, 2b
Ortiz, DH
Cespedes, LF
Napoli, 1b
X, 3b
Castillo, Cf
Jaso, C
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
 
Let's not give up too quickly on Vazquez' offense. Vazquez has had a consistent pattern in his development: when he's been jumped to the next level after less than a full year at the previous level, he has struggled, and then made big strides when given a second year at the new level. I've marked the stints that came after <1 year at the previous level in red, and the rebound years in green:
 
17 -- GC -- .473
18 -- GC -- .783
18 -- Lowell -- .496
19 -- Greenville -- .665
20 -- Greenville -- .863
21 -- Salem -- .756
21 -- Portland -- .541
22 -- Portland -- .771
23 -- Pawtucket -- .721 (he played one game/4 PA for Pawtucket at the end of the previous year; I'm not going to count that)
23 -- MLB -- .530
 
 
Of course this pattern isn't bankable, and MLB is harder than anything before it, so it's quite possible he'll continue to struggle next year, and perhaps indefinitely. But his track record suggests a strong possibility that he'll make significant offensive progress next year, and he only has to get his OPS within sniffing range of .700 to be an above-average starting catcher with his defense.
 
Don't get me wrong, I think Jaso could be a solid acquisition as a C/DH/1B type a la Scott Hatteberg. But I think Vazquez has the potential to be the more valuable catcher of the two, perhaps starting as soon as next year.
 

KillerBs

New Member
Nov 16, 2006
945
Absolutely you dont give up on Vazquez based on his hitting woes this year. But you dont pretend he might not be a 60/65 OPS+ guy next year either. While he doesnt need to hit much to be a valuable player (sounds familiar), we do need another C next year, and Jaso splitting the job with Vaz 50/50 would seem ideal. I wonder if Bradley straight up for Jaso is in the ball park, tho I agree any JBJ deal now makes little sense at this stage. 
 
Couple other points: 
 
1. Is Cespedes a RF or not? If not, our RF options next year (Vic, Craig, Nava OR Betts or Castillo (with the other in CF)) still make me nervous. Quantity but (other than Mookie) dubious quality.
 
2. Re 3B -- If Betts is not a 3B, which is a big if I have a tough time accepting, dealing with 3B is job number 1 in the off season after SP. 
 
The FA 3b options are plentiful:
 
Sandoval is the real prize of course, and I will be disappointed if the Sox dont make a major push for him.  28 year old FA switch hitters who can play 1b and 3b credibly with a career OPS+ at 125 are rare breeds. I get the concern about his weight but he has been a great player at that weight for a few years now. Hard to see how Cecchini or even less so WMB would justify being gun shy about locking up Sandoval long term. But does anyone anticipate the Sox laying out the $ for both Lester and Sandoval this off season?
 
Headley is a signficant step down AFAIC esp as he is 2 years older than Sandoval. I wouldnt mind betting on Headley for 2015 or even 2016 too, but surely it will take at least a 3 year deal to sign him, probably 4, and I wouldnt want the Sox to commit to a 33-34 year old Chase Headley.
 
Asdrubal Cabrera is also an interesting (perhaps cheaper?) option, but I would have a tough time moving X off SS for him. He's not much of a defensive SS either is he? Presumably Cabrera could play 3b, tho he never has in the bigs.
 
Appears to be anyone's guess on whether Aramis Ramirez will be available given his mutual option. If he is available, you would think he could be had for 2/30 or so which seems an attractive price point for the Sox. Not too exciting, but a good bet to be a major upgrade from what we have seen this year at 3B this year.
 
Casey McGehee has had a pretty good year he will be trying to cash in on and Jed Lowrie is available too. These 2 would also underwhelm as pick ups but have the advantage of potential shorter years and money for comparable production as Headley and Cabrera.  Is Lowrie a legit SS option with this team?
 
Here's a report how Hanley Ramirez (which would be a popular signing for a team which, let's say, just lost a franchise legend SP) might be available for as little as 2/40 or 3/60, with the significant caveat that he wants to play SS not 3B:
 
http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-baseball-shaikin-20140817-story.html
 
I think this has been touched on above, but the other obvious option is obtaining Pedro Alvarez from the Pirates. The shoddy defense and down year at the plate are a concern, but if he doesnt turn it around, you could let him walk after 2016 so the $$ investment would be considerably less than Panda, Headley or Asdrubal. No idea what it would take to get him off the Bucs, but I doubt they would give him away. 
 
Come to think of it this plethora of options likely has somehting to do with why we aren't seeing Mookie at 3b. 
 

LostinNJ

New Member
Jul 19, 2005
479
Would the Rangers trade Beltre? He's due $18m in 2015, with a $16m voidable (under 600 PA) option for 2016. 
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,499
I'm liking the Sandoval option more and more... giving X another season at SS to see if he shows improvement and if he does then you're shopping for another 1st baseman after 2015, or if he doesn't and Merrero looks like he's made some adjustments to pitching in AAA and can take over and X's natural position is 3rd, then you can move Sandoval over to 1st.
 
Nice lineup!
 
LF Betts
2 Pedroia
DH Ortiz
1 Napoli
RF Cespedes
3 Sandoval
SS X
CF Castillo
C Vazquez
 

pockmeister

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2006
372
London, England
Trotsky said:
I'm liking the Sandoval option more and more... giving X another season at SS to see if he shows improvement and if he does then you're shopping for another 1st baseman after 2015, or if he doesn't and Merrero looks like he's made some adjustments to pitching in AAA and can take over and X's natural position is 3rd, then you can move Sandoval over to 1st.
 
Nice lineup!
 
LF Betts
2 Pedroia
DH Ortiz
1 Napoli
RF Cespedes
3 Sandoval
SS X
CF Castillo
C Vazquez
 
It's difficult to think that Sandoval's physique is going to work at 3B for much more than another couple of seasons, unless he suddenly goes through an enlightening discovery of healthy diet, lean muscle development and weight loss.  It's rather tragic that a professional athlete with undoubted talent can't keep in good shape, which would deter me from signing him to a long deal - his body will break down down quickly once he hits 30 unless he does something proactive about it.
 
But as a short-term 3B / future 1B/DH, there's some appeal in what he offers.  Maybe he could talk to Ortiz about how to sustain a less-than-perfect physique whilst DH-ing for most of his 30s.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
ScubaSteveAvery said:
Betts' arm is a horrible fit for RF.  I think you have to get Cespedes comfortable out there and move Betts to LF.  I'm not sure what Cabrera brings to the table?  He has some pop but he doesn't walk and struggles to post an OPS above .700. 
Can you expand on this? His arm is borderline for short stop. I imagine it's a little above average for right field. Cespedes certainly has the better arm, but Betts would more than make up for it in range, reads, and jumps.

Plus, if Castillo has a stronger arm you could play him there and use Betts in CF. Cespedes in right should be the third option at best, IMO.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
59,414
San Andreas Fault
pockmeister said:
 
It's difficult to think that Sandoval's physique is going to work at 3B for much more than another couple of seasons, unless he suddenly goes through an enlightening discovery of healthy diet, lean muscle development and weight loss.  It's rather tragic that a professional athlete with undoubted talent can't keep in good shape, which would deter me from signing him to a long deal - his body will break down down quickly once he hits 30 unless he does something proactive about it.
 
But as a short-term 3B / future 1B/DH, there's some appeal in what he offers.  Maybe he could talk to Ortiz about how to sustain a less-than-perfect physique whilst DH-ing for most of his 30s.
And he's looking fatter again lately. He came out this season in good shape, for him, but looks to have eaten himself into, I don't know, 20 - 30 more pounds than he carried in the early season. He was having  maybe the best defensive season of his career, although BREF and Fangraphs say his 2011 was better. Not surprisingly, he has sore puppies right now, the extra pounds not helping, and Bochy subs for him late in games with Arias. Two months ago, I would have voted to go hard after Pablo, but I'd be on the fence again. Quite an enigma, Pablo.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
pockmeister said:
 
It's difficult to think that Sandoval's physique is going to work at 3B for much more than another couple of seasons, unless he suddenly goes through an enlightening discovery of healthy diet, lean muscle development and weight loss.  It's rather tragic that a professional athlete with undoubted talent can't keep in good shape, which would deter me from signing him to a long deal - his body will break down down quickly once he hits 30 unless he does something proactive about it.
 
But as a short-term 3B / future 1B/DH, there's some appeal in what he offers.  Maybe he could talk to Ortiz about how to sustain a less-than-perfect physique whilst DH-ing for most of his 30s.
 
Well, not for nothing, but Ortiz isn't going to last forever.  And so maybe if they sign Panda to a 5 year deal, the first year or two are at 3b, and then he becomes a DH (who occasionally plays 1b).  Which would give them a couple of years to find a more permanent 3b solution.
 

pockmeister

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2006
372
London, England
ivanvamp said:
 
Well, not for nothing, but Ortiz isn't going to last forever.  And so maybe if they sign Panda to a 5 year deal, the first year or two are at 3b, and then he becomes a DH (who occasionally plays 1b).  Which would give them a couple of years to find a more permanent 3b solution.
 
No objections to that model at all.  He's a natural DH shape, so life in the AL may well be more to his taste as his career progresses.  Perhaps his agent will advise him likewise.  The question is whether his bat would be sufficient to sustain him at 1B or DH, and to provide value over the duration of a deal.  Plenty of people on this board more qualified than myself will be able to make those projections, but if the bat is good enough he could be a neat solution to the lack of a 3B today, a need for a 1B in the nearish future, and a vacancy at DH when time catches up with Papi.  
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,449
I wish the Pedroia at positions other than 2b would stop. He didn't sign a hometown discount to agree to change positions. Stop just please stop.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
I maintain that available money should be used to sign front-line pitchers and that position players can/should be filled by existing personnel at little or no increase in the position payroll. I also think they should do whatever they can to see if Victorino's $13M can be shed, again with that money going to pitching.
 
The only obvious offensive holes the Red Sox have for 2015 are at 3B and C. I for one am not willing to totally give up on WMB (particularly at his price) - there still might be something fixable there. If not, there's the lefties Holt or Cecchini - both of which are essentially free. Any team can live with great defensive catcher (or SS) that can't hit.
 
Why waste available pitching money on incremental upgrades to position players? Particularly when 9 of the 13 slots are already filled.
 

Doctor G

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 24, 2007
2,331
HomeRunBaker said:
I wish the Pedroia at positions other than 2b would stop. He didn't sign a hometown discount to agree to change positions. Stop just please stop.
This is exactly right.  Pedroia is the glue that holds the infield together defensively. You can't replace his knowlegeof opposition hitters  and ability to hang in on the DP with a rookie and expect the same results.  
 

jacklamabe65

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Gammons today is his column: 
Since the last week of July, Cherington has added Cespedes, Allen Craig and Castillo. Their best players in September have been Betts and Xander Bogaerts. Now that owner Tom Werner has declared his team a big spender—which some of the other owners might want toned down before they get Scott Boras’s prodigious books on his free agent clients—they may well gauge the market on a veteran starting pitcher, a proven reliever like Andrew Miller (who would like to come back) and put their toes into the water on Pablo Sandoval, whom they have been watching, to play third and bring a bigtime bat at third base and in the middle of the order with David Ortiz, Cespedes and Craig.
 
 
 

ScubaSteveAvery

Master of the Senate
SoSH Member
Jul 29, 2007
8,329
Everywhere
Snodgrass'Muff said:
Can you expand on this? His arm is borderline for short stop. I imagine it's a little above average for right field. Cespedes certainly has the better arm, but Betts would more than make up for it in range, reads, and jumps.

Plus, if Castillo has a stronger arm you could play him there and use Betts in CF. Cespedes in right should be the third option at best, IMO.
 
Betts' throws from CF are often erratic and not on target.  His throws also have a bit too much loft in them and lack the line drive trajectory of Cespedes' or Bradley's throws.  At this point I can't trust him to hit a target on a fly from RF to prevent a runner advancing from 2nd to 3rd on a fly ball, or throw from the bowl and an infield cutoff man to nab a runner tagging up from third.  
 

LostinNJ

New Member
Jul 19, 2005
479
pockmeister said:
 
No objections to that model at all.  He's a natural DH shape, so life in the AL may well be more to his taste as his career progresses.  Perhaps his agent will advise him likewise.  The question is whether his bat would be sufficient to sustain him at 1B or DH, and to provide value over the duration of a deal.  Plenty of people on this board more qualified than myself will be able to make those projections, but if the bat is good enough he could be a neat solution to the lack of a 3B today, a need for a 1B in the nearish future, and a vacancy at DH when time catches up with Papi.  
I suspect they will not replace Ortiz with a full-time DH, but spread those at bats around the roster to give guys a little rest.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
ivanvamp said:
 
Well, not for nothing, but Ortiz isn't going to last forever.  And so maybe if they sign Panda to a 5 year deal, the first year or two are at 3b, and then he becomes a DH (who occasionally plays 1b).  Which would give them a couple of years to find a more permanent 3b solution.
I think he's a terrific fit for the Sox.  I expect(hope) he'll be a serious target.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
59,414
San Andreas Fault
Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
I think he's a terrific fit for the Sox.  I expect(hope) he'll be a serious target.
If they do get him, be prepared for Vlad Guerrero type plate discipline with nowhere near the success, and lard.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,449
Al Zarilla said:
If they do get him, be prepared for Vlad Guerrero type plate discipline with nowhere near the success, and lard.
Why does this seem to be the trend we are heading toward? First the never ending love for WMB, then the signing of AJ, the trade for Cespedes and possibly adding Sandoval. Our greatest successes came in '04 and '07 with an emphasis of attacking our opponents middle relief in the 6th and 7th. Why are we veering away from this under Ben's leadership?
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
34,677
Haiku
HomeRunBaker said:
Why does this seem to be the trend we are heading toward? First the never ending love for WMB, then the signing of AJ, the trade for Cespedes and possibly adding Sandoval. Our greatest successes came in '04 and '07 with an emphasis of attacking our opponents middle relief in the 6th and 7th. Why are we veering away from this under Ben's leadership?
 
I suspect it derives from the expanded strike zone and declining faith in the importance of OBP relative to SLG under the new regime. Cherington may be targeting low-ball sluggers. I don't know Sandoval -- is that his description?
 
I cannot see major league baseball putting up with a low run-scoring environment for long. More strikes and quicker games may be good things, but 1968-style anemia will cost baseball a lot of audience. This should be a very active winter on the rule-making committees.
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
HomeRunBaker said:
Why does this seem to be the trend we are heading toward? First the never ending love for WMB, then the signing of AJ, the trade for Cespedes and possibly adding Sandoval. Our greatest successes came in '04 and '07 with an emphasis of attacking our opponents middle relief in the 6th and 7th. Why are we veering away from this under Ben's leadership?
Simply put the game changed. If you look back to even 2007 there were a good 30 + players who were hitting 35-45-50 homers a season. Now it's less than half of those. Power is the rarest of the commodities in Baseball and it's one of those things that if you find someone that can break a game open for you then you move heaven and earth to get that player. Everyone is following the OBP model now so the edge is gone, I believe the Sox are trying to find the next market inefficiency which could very well be the international free agent market.

So many of the free agents now are either on the downside of their careers or have some type of wart or stigma attached to them. Ironically unlike years past the pitchers in this years class are probably some of the safest bets around depending on the length of contract.

Guys like Lester and Shields have no real injury track record and came through organizations that handled them carefully during their development. This is extremely important when comparing them to someone like Sabathia where the Indians rode him season after season for 200+ innings. He would have complete games throwing 115+ pitches early in his development. So when people say the track record for pitchers over 30 sucks it's all relative to how these pitchers were used. Take a guy like Cliff Lee, aside from this year is there anyone who would really argue the guy wasn't worth the money? Hell even this year when healthy he was hardly a sunk cost.

My point is simple. In 2015 like it or not the Sox are going to sign one of those three starting pitchers. They'll end up with Scherzer, Lester, or Shields. Hell maybe they trade Buchholz and end up with 2 of the 3 on big money 5 year deals. Would anyone honestly complain about that? If you told me by January the Sox got Lester Scherzer and Tomas while keeping a top 5 system that is crazy. When the Sox tanked out in September of 2011, a lot of it was due to being devoid of AAA pitching depth. Today I would argue that the Red Sox have the most depth in baseball. All they really need is an ace and then you can fit in Anthony, Webster, RDLR, Workman, Wright, Johnson, Barnes, Kelly, Owens anywhere in those 3,4, or 5 spots. I have no issues overpaying and missing on top of the rotation pitchers it's when you're dealing with the middling guys who get paid like aces that bothers me.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sprowl said:
 
I suspect it derives from the expanded strike zone and declining faith in the importance of OBP relative to SLG under the new regime. Cherington may be targeting low-ball sluggers. I don't know Sandoval -- is that his description?
 
I cannot see major league baseball putting up with a low run-scoring environment for long. More strikes and quicker games may be good things, but 1968-style anemia will cost baseball a lot of audience. This should be a very active winter on the rule-making committees.
 
This should be a new thread
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Al Zarilla said:
If they do get him, be prepared for Vlad Guerrero type plate discipline with nowhere near the success, and lard.
 
I'm ok with him producing what he usually produces:  a line of .283/.340/.430/.770 (118 ops+), 3.0 bWAR - lard or not.  
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
pockmeister said:
 
No objections to that model at all.  He's a natural DH shape, so life in the AL may well be more to his taste as his career progresses.  Perhaps his agent will advise him likewise.  The question is whether his bat would be sufficient to sustain him at 1B or DH, and to provide value over the duration of a deal.  Plenty of people on this board more qualified than myself will be able to make those projections, but if the bat is good enough he could be a neat solution to the lack of a 3B today, a need for a 1B in the nearish future, and a vacancy at DH when time catches up with Papi.  
 
It's certainly sufficient. MLB league average for 1B this year is 256/332/426 and for DH it's 245/316/420. David Ortiz is at 263/357/508 (132 wRC+) this year. So Sandoval's 285/332/431 (118 wRC+) comes up a little short of what we are used to, but if we are expecting the Red Sox to replace David Ortiz with another David Ortiz, we should prepare ourselves for disappointment. That said, if Sandoval transitions to DH and can still spell 1st and 3rd base once or twice a week with passable defense, he could make up for the bulk of that gap.
 
I'm not a huge fan of Sandoval because I think his body will break down, even as a DH, and he'll spend too much time on the DL during his next contract, but if he can manage to stay healthy he would be a good short term answer at third and long term answer for the departure of Papi. Of course, you could say the same of Craig as a corner outfielder, first baseman and eventual replacement for Papi. I guess they could hedge their bets and hope one of the two pans out.
 
ScubaSteveAvery said:
 
Betts' throws from CF are often erratic and not on target.  His throws also have a bit too much loft in them and lack the line drive trajectory of Cespedes' or Bradley's throws.  At this point I can't trust him to hit a target on a fly from RF to prevent a runner advancing from 2nd to 3rd on a fly ball, or throw from the bowl and an infield cutoff man to nab a runner tagging up from third.  
 
This is fair, though I think there's a pretty good chance that this is at least partially related to him being new to the outfield. It's a valid concern, but I wouldn't be willing to write his arm off in right field just yet. And again, if Betts shows that his arm really doesn't fly there, Castillo supposedly has a strong enough arm to play the position and probably doesn't have much more, if any more range than Mookie in center, so they can just swap them.
 
Edit: Added the link.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
59,414
San Andreas Fault
ivanvamp said:
 
I'm ok with him producing what he usually produces:  a line of .283/.340/.430/.770 (118 ops+), 3.0 bWAR - lard or not.  
Well, there's lard and there's lard. If/when he ever gets back his weight zenith of 280 lbs or so like in 2010 when the Giants mostly benched him for the post season, he can't get down for grounders and falls down on the bases. 
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX6LeDW8Zwc
 
To Sprowl's question, yes, he loves the low balls. He's strong enough to drive balls that might have bounced off the plate, or a foot outside, a long way. 
 
When he's in shape (for him), he's really fun to watch hitting and fielding. I just fear that once he gets a long term contract, his eating discipline may go out the window and we end up with chocolate cake Panda. 
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,729
Rogers Park
More Panda tidbits:
 
He plays in a home park that has deeply repressed HR power, and yet he hits for more average, OBP, SLG, and even more isolated power in San Francisco than elsewhere. The most striking source of this split is that he strikes out *much* more on the road. 270 away to 190 home, in his career, in about the same number of PA. I have no idea why this might be: familiarity with the batter's eye? Sleeping in his own bed? Good Nueva Latina on Valencia Street?
 
If we sign him, Boston's going to need to up its ceviche game. We need him on lean protein!
 
Most of his power is as a lefty. I'm not sure if he would gain more from Fenway's LF than he loses from its RF, but it should be noted that it's also pretty hard to hit the ball out to right in SF. He puts a lot of deep fly balls into AT&T's center-right "Triples Alley," some of which might sneak into the bullpen; he also uses the whole field from both sides of the plate. That playoff game against STL when he had a double down the right field line incorrectly called foul only to double to left expresses his game pretty well. 
 
He's been hurt a fair amount, but a lot of that has been hamate fractures in both hands. He has no more hamate bones. 
 

Just a bit outside

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 6, 2011
8,027
Monument, CO
Al Zarilla said:
Well, there's lard and there's lard. If/when he ever gets back his weight zenith of 280 lbs or so like in 2010 when the Giants mostly benched him for the post season, he can't get down for grounders and falls down on the bases. 
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eX6LeDW8Zwc
 
To Sprowl's question, yes, he loves the low balls. He's strong enough to drive balls that might have bounced off the plate, or a foot outside, a long way. 
 
When he's in shape (for him), he's really fun to watch hitting and fielding. I just fear that once he gets a long term contract, his eating discipline may go out the window and we end up with chocolate cake Panda. 
The Sox could try and include a weight clause like the Phillies did with Delmon Young.  Obviously, Panda will have many more teams to choose from but it might be worth an extra couple million a year to keep his weight reasonable.  Listed at 245 on Fangraphs, maybe put the limit at 260.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
Looking around in this thread, I don't see any speculation of what it would cost to sign fatso...money that can't be spent elsewhere.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
59,414
San Andreas Fault
geoduck no quahog said:
Looking around in this thread, I don't see any speculation of what it would cost to sign fatso...money that can't be spent elsewhere.
FWIW, early in the year he, and or his agent, were talking 5 years/100 million. 
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,499
Perhaps this is a question for a poll-thread, but I'm curious what other posters see as the future for the Sox young pitchers in '15 and going forward....
Mine:
 
RDLR: starter from here on out.  Turns out to be a very good no. 2 type pitcher by '16 through '20
Ranaudo: back in Pawtucket to start '15, called up after injury to Clay....  Traded and ends up in some other teams pen for a few seasons.
Webster:  traded this offseason.
Workman:  pen.  turns into a long term high quality set-up guy with a few saves tossed in.  Sox get good value.
Barnes:  back in Pawtucket.  Called up in '15 expanded roster contributes in the bullpen.  Starts in '16 after Clay walks.... we get another no. 3 quality pitcher for several seasons out of him.
 
I know there's a few others we picked up from the deadline deals that should probably be tossed in here but I don't have the time this morning or the history with them so I'm not commenting.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Trotsky said:
Perhaps this is a question for a poll-thread, but I'm curious what other posters see as the future for the Sox young pitchers in '15 and going forward....
Mine:
 
RDLR: starter from here on out.  Turns out to be a very good no. 2 type pitcher by '16 through '20
Ranaudo: back in Pawtucket to start '15, called up after injury to Clay....  Traded and ends up in some other teams pen for a few seasons.
Webster:  traded this offseason.
Workman:  pen.  turns into a long term high quality set-up guy with a few saves tossed in.  Sox get good value.
Barnes:  back in Pawtucket.  Called up in '15 expanded roster contributes in the bullpen.  Starts in '16 after Clay walks.... we get another no. 3 quality pitcher for several seasons out of him.
 
I know there's a few others we picked up from the deadline deals that should probably be tossed in here but I don't have the time this morning or the history with them so I'm not commenting.
 
I think this is pretty reasonable guesswork.  RDLR is exactly the kind of guy that if the Red Sox were to face him, would endure an incredibly frustrating day at the plate as he goes 7, giving up 3 hits and maybe a run, despite 4 walks.  I think Barnes ends up being pretty darned good.  I'm fine moving Webster and/or Ranaudo for the right return.
 
I think Owens, Brian Johnson, RDLR, and Barnes end up being the young guns that help this rotation in the long run.
 

Mighty Joe Young

The North remembers
SoSH Member
Sep 14, 2002
8,465
Halifax, Nova Scotia , Canada
ivanvamp said:
 
I think this is pretty reasonable guesswork.  RDLR is exactly the kind of guy that if the Red Sox were to face him, would endure an incredibly frustrating day at the plate as he goes 7, giving up 3 hits and maybe a run, despite 4 walks.  I think Barnes ends up being pretty darned good.  I'm fine moving Webster and/or Ranaudo for the right return.
 
I think Owens, Brian Johnson, RDLR, and Barnes end up being the young guns that help this rotation in the long run.
 
I would concur .. but would add Eduardo Rodriguez to that list. .. maybe at the top of it.
 

tbrown_01923

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2006
784
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
 
I would concur .. but would add Eduardo Rodriguez to that list. .. maybe at the top of it.
 
It depends on what you mean by helping in the long run but that would be starting three lefties, which doesn't feel likely to me. But hey if they are all dealing - I don't care.
 

KillerBs

New Member
Nov 16, 2006
945
We are a long way from worrying about what to do with Owens, Johnson and ERodriguez all in the rotation. They are all clearly slated for AAA next spring and we will wait and see.
 
As to the class ahead of them, it is been a major disappointment clearly. Of the 4 young pitchers out of PAW we have given a shot to down the stretch, the only one who looks to justify any serious consideration as part of the rotation next year is Rubby.
 
Webster (outside his last start, OK), Ranaudo and Workman have just been bad, with a combination of mediocre fringy stuff and poor control/command. I could support Webster and Workman being slotted into the back of the bullpen next year, as real older school long men, on the premise that the relief role might lead to a spike in velocity. But I don't see how you can go into 2015 planning on any of them being other than the 6, 7 or 8 on the SP depth chart at best. I would guess that all 3 have also made themselves virtually worthless on the trade market too.
 
I would rather see Wright or Barnes be given the 5th starter role next year than any of this trio. Lester, Buchholz, Kelly, Delarosa, Wright could give you a chance.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.