MakMan44 said:
Agree to disagree at this point. I think it's pretty clear that Ian Kennedy's 2014 would be the best SP on the Red Sox right now.
That's not remotely clear. It's actually pretty clear that's completely wrong.
Clay Buchholz' ERA+ by season going backwards 72, 237, 92, 124, 187, 111, 69, 303. Unless you think Buchholz is permanently disabled by whatever the hell the problem was, he's very likely to put up better than Ian Kennedy's 92 ERA+.
Joe Kelly, had a 94 with the Red Sox, 91 overall for 2014, and 140 and 108 in previous years.
Webster doesn't have to take a huge step forward. All he needs is for his last three or four starts to be more representative than his prior however many starts. If that happens, then he has already made the adjustment and we just can't tell for sure because we don't have the data.
The point is that Ian Kennedy is pretty meh as far as pitchers go and we've got lots of guys who can be pretty meh. What we need is guys who can be counted on to be better than pretty meh. We need a guy who actually is very likely to outpitch Joe Kelly, and who may not outpitch a good Clay Buchholz, but who will likely pitch more innings than even the best Clay Buchholz.