Trade for Dame?
- Thread starter kazuneko
- Start date
Not only is Dame a better scorer than Brown, but the threat of him shooting from 3 will only open up more opportunities for others as opposed to Brown. Tatum/Dame/KP are good shooters. Dame would be a better scorer plus make others better.
I think White was in an optimal role last season playing off the ball with Smart and Brogdon handling those responsibilities and all the attention on Tatum and Jaylen. Surely, he wouldn't perform as well if asked to be our starting PG going H2H against elite PG's many nights nor would he in another setting. Is there a world where we can land Harden on his one-year deal which would obv include not touching Jaylen? He'd be an ideal fit in giving The Jays their first true distributor. Probably not as the Sixers wouldn't want to strengthen their primary competitor in the division but if the Harden market comes up dry you never know. Brogdon, one of the bigs (TL or Al), Grant if it's to a place he gets paid for him to agree?
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Based on stats and where they are in their careers.. isn't Jaylen very close to where Lillard was at Brown's age? Dame has attempted 14,299 shots in his career.. making 6,281. Jaylen has attempted 6,616... if he were on the same path as Dame he would have made 200 less shots (if my math is correct).. he's made 3,153. If he were shooting the same percentage as Lillard he'd have made 2,906 I believe.. Lillard may be the better player right now.. and he has been an all star more often etc.. but to my mind Jaylen will be the better player over the next 5 years. Lillard's career 3 point percentage is 0.7% higher... Brown's career FG% is 3.8% higher.
Role schmole
Derrick was easily the 3rd best player on the Celtics last season.
I expect he'll be just as good with more responsibility as the main PG.
He's been consistently good analytically for years, it's really nothing new for DW. He doesn't jump off the screen unless you watch him closely for 82 games. Great help defender from the weak side, good hands. Always gets back in transition on D & pushes the ball on offense. Rarely takes poor, forced shots. Soft touch, a great FT shooter. 3pt stroke really took a step after a Summer of work last year.
He's one of the reasons why Brad didn't hesitate in trading Smart. Derrick needed more minutes and now he'll get them (once JB signs the Super Max)
Ugh James Harden dribble fest & all his baggage. He won't age well, no thanks. I'm looking forward to the pick-up in pace and ball movement that Pop instilled in White.
Happy 4th of July to all....
Right, you can't redirect the pick swap, but what about this hypothetical 3 team trade...
Heat get:
Lillard
Nurkic
Blazers get:
Herro
Lowry
Martin
Jovic
Jacquez
Heat '28 1st
Heat '30 1st
Nuggets '25 2nd
Nuggets '26 2nd
Nuggets get:
'24 pick swap with Heat
'26 pick swap with Heat
Not sure if the pick swaps are worth the equivalent of a 2nd to the Nuggets, but I just used that as a stand in to explain the concept.
I'm not sure, I just don't think Dame and Ja would work as a backcourt, and then you would have to more Bane to SF. I just wouldn't see a fit in Memphis Smart or no Smart.
Brooklyn could certainly make a deal happen if they wanted. Those Philly, Phoenix, and Dallas #1's are all very, very interesting, but discounted a bit because they are far away. Plus they have a few young guys like Cam Thoma, and the 2 picks from this year who could potentially go
No, there is no such world, even according to many world theories of physics.
Harden is on a one-year deal so aging poorly, which i don't think he will at all with his game anyway, isn't relevant for next season. White plays 30 mpg so i don't know how much more you'd want out of him but he was also not a guy who finished all of our games due to matchup specifics. He's been used really well in optimizing his skillset imo. I don't feel Smart was traded for White to be the full-time PG on a Championship level team at all....I'd be surprised and disappointed if this was our backcourt heading into camp with White, Jaylen, Brogdan and Prichard.Role schmole
Derrick was easily the 3rd best player on the Celtics last season.
I expect he'll be just as good with more responsibility as the main PG.
He's been consistently good analytically for years, it's really nothing new for DW. He doesn't jump off the screen unless you watch him closely for 82 games. Great help defender from the weak side, good hands. Always gets back in transition on D & pushes the ball on offense. Rarely takes poor, forced shots. Soft touch, a great FT shooter. 3pt stroke really took a step after a Summer of work last year.
He's one of the reasons why Brad didn't hesitate in trading Smart. Derrick needed more minutes and now he'll get them (once JB signs the Super Max)
Ugh James Harden dribble fest & all his baggage. He won't age well, no thanks. I'm looking forward to the pick-up in pace and ball movement that Pop instilled in White.
Happy 4th of July to all....
You think Harden's value is that high among contenders? I kinda think the opposite in that Philly is not going to get much in return for him.
No not even a little bit. You have to consider the league averages. Here are their performance through 7 seasons:
Similar 3pt and shooting efficiency (despite Lillard's first 7 years being in a less shooter friendly era), similar rebounding, similar turnover rates...... But Lillard kept up that efficiency on far more attempts, played far more minutes, assisted at a MUCH higher rate, and had just far more impact on his team. Lilard was a clearly much better player than Jaylen, particularly compared to the league.
Jaylen Brown is a good player, top 30ish in the league (maybe 35?) when everyone is healthy. Dame Lillard is a top 5-10 player in the NBA when everyone is fully healthy, he's a top 3 or so offensive player (basically his only competition is Curry and Jokic now, used to be Curry and LeBron.
How many owners do that now? And why are first round picks singled out? And why is it that you just can't trade them in consecutive years, but can still do pick swaps in the other years?
It's dumb and plenty of stupid deals still occur with it in place. If you must have something, make it so that you can't trade picks more than 5 years out or trade more than 4 or something like that as was suggested upthread.
Lillard has been a top 10 player most of his career, arguably top five in his best seasons, whereas Brown is what? Top 25? Top 30? That’s not to say Brown isn’t a special player, but there’s a huge gulf between good players and superstars. There’s almost no chance that a guy who is already 26 makes that kind of ascension; we would have seen that upside already.
Lillard would instantly be the guy I'd want with the ball at the end of games. He's got a superior handle, and how many times did we see Tatum or Smart or Brown commit a terrible turnover? A LOT. He's an excellent distributor too. He'd make this offense hum.
Sorry if this was posted before but while reading something else, I ran into what I thought was a super interesting long-form article on Harden from last October: https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nba/james-harden-on-his-legacy-and-how-the-joel-embiid-partnership-is-key
Harden on a one-year contract to try to win a championship would be interesting. Probably would still rather have Brogdon just for fit but Harden is still really good.
One snippet:
Almost a week had passed since James Harden's 2021-22 season had come to an end. He still wasn't returning any calls – friends, family, even his manager and longtime friend Troy Payne.
Payne has known Harden for years, so he understood that Harden reacts to year-ending losses by holing up in his Houston home and withdrawing from the world. But this … well, this was different.
"He was broken," one friend of Harden's said. "It was bad. He was really hurting."
This loss marked the fourth straight season that Harden's team had failed to advance past the second round of the playoffs. This time it was with the Philadelphia 76ers, who, just three months after trading for Harden – a deal for which Harden had lobbied, after pushing to be traded to the Brooklyn Nets from the Houston Rockets one year earlier – had fallen in six games to the Miami Heat, dropping Harden's record in his last nine elimination games to 1-8. In the second half of that season-ending loss, Harden took just two shots.
Another day went by. Then another. Payne reached out to some mutual friends to see if they'd heard from Harden. None had. Payne tried Harden's personal chef.
"Yeah, he's here," the chef said. "He's just saying he needs more time to himself."
Finally, around Day 10, Payne's phone buzzed. Harden's name flashed across the screen. He told Payne that he was hurting, physically but also emotionally, that the previous two years – multiple trades, multiple injuries, multiple playoff failures – had left him drained and deflated, that he was eager to put it all behind him.
"The whole two years was a low point. I've never really had to deal with something like that," Harden told me recently. "My body, mentally, physically … It was a lot going on. I mean, basketball is everything to me."
He never said it out loud, but throughout last offseason, friends could see that Harden recognized the window for him to secure his legacy was closing. He turned 33 in August. He was entering his 14th NBA season. He was no longer the star around which everything on his team orbited. He told people he was cool with that.
But also, he told himself over the offseason, "It was time to get back to being James Harden."
This is sort of the entire point of advanced stats, right?
If they always just confirm the commonly held national media PPG/RPG/APG talking points there there isn’t much use for them.
Not to say we should always take them as gospel, but when they are at odds with common beliefs, the correct response should be “interesting, I wonder what this stat is capturing/could we be wrong?”, not “this doesn’t fit the common perception so it must be useless”.
Minutes last season:
White 28.3mpg
Smart 32.1mpg
I'd expect DW to surpass Smart's minutes. Not sure why the pushback on White, it's an odd stance. He's exactly the type of player you want on the floor with the JAYs/KP.
Harden isn't happening, so not really worth it. Just don't like the fit
Lillard is a top5 player now? If this goes on long enough, he'll be in the MVP conversation. God I hope that he's traded somewhere soon.
He did make 1st team all NBA that one time in 2018, when both Curry and Paul were hurt.
The Ringer has him 14th, the Athletic has him in their 2B tier (10-12), ESPN has him 14th, SI has him 13th, CBS sports has him 9th, Sporting news has him 13th. I could find more, but that's an average of 12.3, which sounds about right. FWIW, in those same rankings Jaylen has an average of 19.9 (which also sounds just about right).
The only way Lillard is legit in the 5-10 range is if you choose to de-emphasize defense and durability (which many do).
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Setting aside where Lillard ranks in terms of NBA talent, the guy would instantly be a superstar in Boston. It sucks that its unlikely to happen but he fits perfectly with the Celtics culture.
I think the top 5 came from me writing too fast and combining 2 different thoughts... top 5 offensive player, and top 10-15 overall.
Either way, it's moot, but yeah, he's somwhere in the 9-15 range, so around Tatum's level, miles ahead of Brown (I think all of those rankings are too high on Jaylen who is a good player, but not at the level of other top 20 guys, most of whom also have to face being the best player (often by far) on their team. I think Jaylen is in the 25-35 range where it gets messy.
What are those rankings based on? I’m not going to squabble between 5-10 and 10-15. Not much different either way. He is clearly a better basketball player than Jaylen Brown, which is all that matters in this discussion. I think it’s fair to wonder who will be better over the next 3 years or so. I would bet on Lillard but his age is a real issue.
Don't worry, he'll be consider in the bottom half of the Top 25 once he's traded elsewhere
No disputing most of this (and I agree on Lillard's offensive potential, though he's got more risk than other guys because of his age), but I think Jaylen is correct where he is. I don't want to go back through the all the rankings again, but let's just look at who the Ringer has around Jaylen:
19: James Harden
20: Domantis Sabonis
21: Bam Adebayo
22: Jaylen Brown
23: Trae Young
24: Anthony Edwards
25: Paul George
Other than Young and maybe Ant, which of these guys is the undisputed best player on their own team? At this range you've got guys always in contention for all-NBA, but all with pretty real weakness in one part of their game or another. This feels like the right spot for JB.
It's definitely a pretty fine line between 5-10 and 11-15, but it's worth quibbling over because it's also a pretty fine line between 11-15 and 16-20, the latter being about where Brown sits. And to state the obvious, it's less a question of where they rank now and more a question of exactly when will Brown be the better player. Unless Lillard really does age like Curry (and Brown is done improving), it's probably 2 years max. Maybe it's worth the increased chance at a title if the team is slightly better for the next two years (and Lillard certainly is a better fit with Tatum offensively), even it means Boston spends the rest of Tatum's prime looking for another all-star level player.
A two man game with Dame and Tatum would be unstoppable, FWIW. With Tatum and Jaylen, you can’t really do it, as forcing switches is about creating mismatches. You don’t want Tatum’s defender on Jaylen, and while Jaylen’s defender on Tatum is a mismatch in theory, the defense would just collapse on him. That’s why late in all these games, you saw a two man game between Smart and Tatum, with some Smart and Jaylen mixed in.
With Dame or Tatum screening for the others, defenses would be helpless for the most part, especially with Porzingis here. This is from two seasons ago now, but obviously defenses haven’t really changed how they defend Tatum and Lillard. They were two of the five players who got blitzed on the highest percentage of plays, which as everyone here knows, just warps the hell out of defenses.
With Dame or Tatum screening for the others, defenses would be helpless for the most part, especially with Porzingis here. This is from two seasons ago now, but obviously defenses haven’t really changed how they defend Tatum and Lillard. They were two of the five players who got blitzed on the highest percentage of plays, which as everyone here knows, just warps the hell out of defenses.
He also might be labeled washed before he plays his next game.
We're collectively the best at premature underestimation.
Yeah, for me it’s less about some quasi-subjective ranking and more about fit. I think Lillard would open up so much for Tatum and vice versa. Jaylen is a very gifted scorer but he doesn’t really do that. Adding someone with Lillard’s closing ability and a 90% FT shooter would go a long way at the end of games. Tatum has gotten so much better at passing and Lillard is a one man wrecking crew. Just talking about the 2 of them together makes you forget that this team would also have Porzingis to kick the ball to and he’d have more space than he’s probably ever had.A two man game with Dame and Tatum would be unstoppable, FWIW. With Tatum and Jaylen, you can’t really do it, as forcing is about creating mismatches. Getting Jaylen’s defender on Tatum is a mismatch in theory, but the defense would just collapse like usual.
That’s why late in all these games, you saw a two man game between Smart and Tatum, with some Smart and Jaylen mixed in. With Dame or Tatum screening for the others, defenses would be helpless for the most part, especially with Porzingis here.
This is from two seasons ago now, but obviously defenses haven’t really changed how they defend Tatum and Lillard. They were two of the five players who got blitzed on the highest percentage of plays, which as everyone here knows, just warps the hell out of defenses.
I think this could be its own thread, but I think it probably falls into tiers:
tier 1:
1.Jokic
2. Giannis
Tier2:
3. Curry
4. Luka
Tier 3:
5. Ebmiid
6. Tatum
7. KD
8. James
Tier 4:
9: Booker
10.Dame
11.SGA
12. Davis
13. Butler
14. Morant
I think tier 1 is self-explanatory. Both have been consistently awesome for a long time. Tier 2 could be ranked higher, but there are some questions (Curry - age, Luka -how much of his statistical dominance is related to being on a bad team).
Tier 3 is a bunch of guys who are undoubtedly top-ten players.
Tier 4 is a cluster of guys who should be in the conversation for top ten. Lillard is definitely on that list. Any of those guys could have a season in which 9-14 seems comically low
I think after tier 4, you have a cluster of guys who are fantastic but have spotty injury histories (Leonard, Zion), have had awesome careers but are in decline (Harden) emerging as stars (Garland, Halliburton), and excellent players who aren't quite at the level (Donvan Mitchell, Trea Young, Bam, Paul George etc.) Players who will make All-Star teams and 2nd and the occasional all 2nd or 3rd team all NBA squad but aren't seriously going to be considered top ten without a couple years of dominance.
I think people should be excited about Lillard, he's arguably one of the ten best basketball players alive right now.
All that said, he doesn't fit with the Celtics' current plans. They already have 3 high-usage players (Tatum, Brown, Porzingis). Swapping Brown out for Lillard doesn't really add that much offense: Lillard is a much better offensive player than Brown (and almost everyone else on the planet) but this is a team with 3 ball dominant offensive threats. The hit on defense of swapping Dame for Brown would be felt much more (and I think Brown had a so-so year defensively).
His contract is also terrible.
Love the guy, think he's an All-Time Great, but yeah, that's a pass for me.
Not sure I see the logic in saying that swapping Brown out for Lillard doesn’t add that much offense while also acknowledging that Lillard is a much better offensive player. Lillard has a skill set that nobody on the Celtics has. He has the ability to draw defenses’ attention that Jaylen Brown can only dream of. He would make life for Tatum much, much easier. He’s also a better passer than Brown and can score off the dribble much better than anyone we currently have. I think there is plenty of room for Lillard, Tatum, and KP to co-exist. With Tatum and Lillard, KP would have it so much easier than he’s ever had.
Those ranking averages seem right to me too. Lillard is a better offensive player than Jaylen and I think he’s a better fit with JT. He’s a better player next year no doubt about it.
He’s also 6+ years older, a worse defender and apparently doesn’t want to play in Boston.
As @Jimbodandy said, I really hope he gets traded somewhere soon. The Lillard trade stuff is getting exhausting
And to be clear, the offensive potential of playing three guys together (Dame/Tatum/KP) who play completely different positions and can score efficiently and at volume at all three levels (and combined for nearly 25 FTAs/game) is unmatched by any team outside of maybe Denver (only when Jokic is on the floor). It's just so much riskier when you get a lot older and a lot smaller, and I don't think it's worth it when you're a top 5 title contender (at worst) without taking that chance.
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I’ve gone from hard no on a Jaylen for Dame to a hard yes after thinking about this for a few days. Dame completely unlocks the offense and I think he can improve his defense to be good enough. He will likely still be the worst defender on the floor when he plays, but he’s got enough wingspan and standing reach (4.5in more than Kemba) that you don’t need to tailor your entire defense to hiding him. The C’s also likely will play a lot of double bigs (plus Tatum) which will give them enough rim protection that it will help offset the worse perimeter defense.
Al and White seem like perfect complements to a perfectly complementary big 3. Hauser would fit really nicely as well with the amount of open 3s he’s about to get, and hopefully Grant and Brogdon as well.
We likely wouldn’t see the clamps put on teams like we saw 2 years ago, but the offense would regularly put up 125+ a game.
Biggest downside to me is that the most of the team’s biggest contributors are injury prone and/or older.
Al and White seem like perfect complements to a perfectly complementary big 3. Hauser would fit really nicely as well with the amount of open 3s he’s about to get, and hopefully Grant and Brogdon as well.
We likely wouldn’t see the clamps put on teams like we saw 2 years ago, but the offense would regularly put up 125+ a game.
Biggest downside to me is that the most of the team’s biggest contributors are injury prone and/or older.
No pushback at all he's a good player but not a 35 mpg lead guard. If he has to be that guy. is then you're have bigger backcourt issues.
I've been trying to talk myself into the deal as I have a sinking feeling that it's coming. And this is what I've come around to. Having a shot creating offensive gravity center like Dame frees up Tatum to expend more effort on D (by making his life so much easier on the offensive end). So I'm tentatively optimistic that Boston could make it work.
His "statistical dominance" is due to his having the ball in his hands all the time. He's like Iverson without the defense. No thanks. Dallas deserves Luka.
We've had this discussion before, but the black box stats aren't terribly useful. In this day of Synergy generated microstats the magic numbers aren't terribly descriptive.
This list is fine.
If we are suggesting trading Jaylen for Dame, shouldn't we list which 14 players will produce the most over the next 4 seasons? Taking a snapshot of players NOW (& past production) can be intoxicating. Tread on the tire, injury history, and age play a much bigger role than is being given credit. Dame is exciting but I like the path the Celtics are on. Get the Brown Super Max done. See how JAYs + KP works for a season. Then re-access next summer. Brad has the draft stock to build around this group for numerous years.
100% Trust in Brad's crystal ball on this one
I'm certainly biased against the new CBA because it seems bent on penalizing a team like Boston that has gone about team-building the "right" way. But is there anything to like about the new CBA? It seems to reinforce every bad recent trend in the league: constant carousel of player movement, rosters formulated by accountants, an emphasis on top-end star acquisition over team construction. (To the last point, what I mean is, if teams can't afford to build around a couple very good players, and every team only gets 1 max guy, then it becomes all about making sure that your #1 guy is truly one of the top 5 in the league, as opposed to a 6-10 guy, which seems like an annoying direction for the league to trend.) Is there anything to like here? Maybe fewer max contracts handed out because they come with more penalties? More parity as teams struggle to hold their core together? Anything else?
I think it's good for parity, especially for teams that have one star like Jokic, and then another emerge like Murray did in this year's playoffs (he has never made All-NBA or an All-Star team).
I think it really emphasizes finding complementary stars who are right for your main star, as opposed to just hoarding talent. In the Cs case, for example, they will need to make some tough choices re Jaylen next year if KP pops next to Tatum.
The radio silence on Jaylen’s Supermax seems obvious that Brad won’t commit until the Dame trade is completed; either to us or until he’s off the market. And Jaylen of course realizes this, and is the second straight summer they’ve dangled him for a bigger star.
I still doubt they move JB because he's an expiring without signing the max - especially to a market like Portland that probably is a long-shot to keep him if the money is basically equal as a FA next year. However, am I missing a third team that would likely feel confident about resigning him that could flip the assets given up for JB to PDX while we get Dame? ATL is the first thought, but I don't think they have a ton of picks available after the Murray deal.
Does a trade render Brown ineliegible for the supermax or can his new team offer it?
Ineligible and he can't extend even at the non-supermax for six months following the trade, IIRC.
It's also to discourage teams from spending a half of billion dollars for a championship. For teams who want to blow through the 2nd apron and spend spend spend, it also means that teams won't be able to churn through role players to try to fill out their rosters (as the ability to add players are quite limited) but teams that draft well should have an advantage. That's why Brad stockpiled a bunch of 2nd round picks.
I've seen this in a few different places so I presume it's correct.
I doubt this is correct. Dame could be on the market for a while (MIA can't move Jacquez for 30 days and PDX has no reason not to wait for him to be available). I mean there could be negotiating going on - whether JB gets everything (5 year guaranteed supermax with player option) or whether BOS wants to tie a small portion of the money to incentives or not offer the 5th year player option (JB's current contrat has a bunch of incentives).
Or, it could be that Brad wants to see how GW's RFA plays out.
I'm pretty sure that JB will sign his supermax before Dame is traded.
No owners do that now because there's a rule in place. Owners would do that now if they could - look at the Gobert trade. Owners, especially new owners, are impulsive and they typically don't actually know anything about basketball.
Yes, of course stupid deals still occur. Stupid deals will happen in any rules framework. The rule prevents them from being stupider. Your rule idea around not trading picks more than 4-5 years out is actually much more limiting and less flexible for teams than the Stepien rule.
I know we're competing for a title, but Brown is 26 years old, coming off a 2nd team all-NBA season, and about to sign long term for 5 years.
Dame Lillard is 33 years old. Full stop.
The list of PGs alltime who's careers after 33 would be worth trading Browns next 5 years for has to be really, really small, right?
Nash? Paul? Kidd? Stockton? Any of them? And they all obviously have a very different style than Lillard.
I really love Dame, but if Brown is part of a trade for him, it's a bad trade. It's an upgrade with a lot of risk in the near term, and an obvious loss long term. Brogdon? Whatever. Rob Will? I love him, but...yep.
Anyone on the roster not named Brown and Tatum.
Dame Lillard is 33 years old. Full stop.
The list of PGs alltime who's careers after 33 would be worth trading Browns next 5 years for has to be really, really small, right?
Nash? Paul? Kidd? Stockton? Any of them? And they all obviously have a very different style than Lillard.
I really love Dame, but if Brown is part of a trade for him, it's a bad trade. It's an upgrade with a lot of risk in the near term, and an obvious loss long term. Brogdon? Whatever. Rob Will? I love him, but...yep.
Anyone on the roster not named Brown and Tatum.
Agreed. And to acquire Dame, C's would have to relinquish assets. With Jaylen, there are no assets needed to retain him and he'll, in theory, still hold his value throughout the duration of his contract, so C's would be able to receive significant assets for him. That's a pretty big difference.
There's also a small chance that the KP acquisition helps to unlock a better version of Jaylen.