Trade for Dame?
- Thread starter kazuneko
- Start date
There's a human/ego element here too: everyone has been saying what a joke Miami's offer would be for a player of Lillard's caliber, and I highly doubt that the Portland front office wants to be a laughingstock.
“ Miami currently owes a 2025 first-round pick to Oklahoma City that simultaneously encumbers all of their first-round picks between 2024-2027 due to a combination of protections and the Stepien Rule. That means, for the time being, the Heat are limited to just two tradable first-round picks.”
And the fact that if you trade for assets that far out, you’re basically setting up the next GM. Cronin knows he needs something to show for this trade in the near-term. The team is not likely to be good for a while. If you combine that with a sub-optimal return, that’s an easy decision for ownership.
The pick swap is the way around the Stepien, right? They will still have a first round pick so long as the swap is with a team that will definitely have a pick in those years
I believe because the pick they traded OKC is a protected pick, the protection limits their ability to swap
They should definitely be able to swap 2024. And if the pick they owe OKC in 2025 (top 14 protected) does not convey, they owe their 2026 unprotected to them. Feel like they can offer a swap in 2024 and a swap in 2026 (which the 2026 swap becomes a swap in 2025 if it fall outside the lottery)
"if the other trade conveys, you get a swap the next year, if it doesn't convey, you get a swap this year" still would fly, no?
I believe they can swap 2024 but it's basically worthless if they get Dame.
They can't swap 2026 because that pick might be owed to OKC (if 2025 doesn't convey).
https://www.thescore.com/nba/news/2663773
I've never seen any trade formulation like this but I can't find anything that would prevent it. However, swapping a top-14 protected pick would seem to have little real value as well.
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Yea that's where I am at with this.
2024 swap. 2025 or 2026 swap depending on which year conveys
Portland also owes Chicago a top 14 protected 1st in '24 which makes a pick swap even a little bit less valuable than it would be otherwise.
Yeah, I agree. I think I mentioned the same swaps in my initial post on what I thought the Heat could offer.
I hadn't seen much on that Blazers pick to Chicago, though, & I think to some extent it could impact their strategy regarding this upcoming season.
It's also probably a part of the reason they have limited avenues to try to build up their team around Dame.
What an absolute mess of a deal. You want lottery protection, fine. But rolling it over for FIVE YEARS?! At some point, just convert it to equivalent value and stop hamstringing yourself. And make that point, like, 2 years. Odds are, you won't still be the GM then anyways.
With the new CBA, I’m coming around on a Brown for Dame trade. Windows to win titles with specific groups are going to be shorter now. I think for a 2-3 year window JT/DL/KP gives the Celtics a better chance to win a title. A starting 5 of White/Lillard/Tatum/Horford/KP is arguably the best in the league.
Couple additional thoughts:
-After looking at the stats and some of the posts above I don't think you can just handwave Lillard's defense away by saying he was on a bad team and he'd get better here. Probably he'd be somewhat better, but Brad had better be damn sure. I'd want to know more about what he is particularly bad at as well and how that would be hidden be the scheme or better supporting cast or coaching. But in the abstract I'd much rather have a +3.5 guy who's average on defense and is 26 years old (Jaylen) than a +4 guy who's well below average on defense and is 33 considering we already have two stars who are pluses on both sides of the ball.
-An aside, I loathe the Stepien rule. If a GM wants to be stupid they should be allowed as the remedy is firing them. We don't need extra rules which make it harder for good GMs to make deals (and that can be gotten around anyway). If a trade is too lopsided the commissioner can always veto it.
-After looking at the stats and some of the posts above I don't think you can just handwave Lillard's defense away by saying he was on a bad team and he'd get better here. Probably he'd be somewhat better, but Brad had better be damn sure. I'd want to know more about what he is particularly bad at as well and how that would be hidden be the scheme or better supporting cast or coaching. But in the abstract I'd much rather have a +3.5 guy who's average on defense and is 26 years old (Jaylen) than a +4 guy who's well below average on defense and is 33 considering we already have two stars who are pluses on both sides of the ball.
-An aside, I loathe the Stepien rule. If a GM wants to be stupid they should be allowed as the remedy is firing them. We don't need extra rules which make it harder for good GMs to make deals (and that can be gotten around anyway). If a trade is too lopsided the commissioner can always veto it.
100% yes. Ideally there would be no rule at all (the NFL seems to do OK without it), but if you insist on not letting teams dig themselves into too deep a hole, just keep it simple with "you can't trade any pick more than (say) six years out".
Can’t help but feel that all this talk about Lillard is a little bit grass is always greener.. if you switch Brown and Lillard in your lineup.. how much worse are they? And how is it not a longer window?
Has Lillard won anything in the playoffs? And if it’s because he’s been on awful teams.. then won’t his numbers go down to what we already have in brown anyway on a better team?
I guess I don’t quite get the cap implications.. but trading a player in his prime for one on the wrong side of 30 seems like a mistake straight up .. but wouldn’t Portland be asking for more than just Brown?
This is part of the reason for it, but to say Lillard's Blazers put up no resistance would be an understatement. No great shame in going 0-3 against the dynasty Warriors in the playoffs, but the Blazers were barely a speed bump for them, winning just 1 game total in those 3 series. And this wasn't the Durant Warriors - KD played in just 2 of those 13 games. OKC/HOU/LAC can say they ran into the buzzsaw that was the Warriors for much of the last decade, but Portland really can't use that as an excuse. Toronto put up more resistance against Lebron's Cavs during the same period.
This all reminds me how much i hate the warriors and will enjoy steph trying to carry old ass klay and dray to no success.
It's not going to happen likely because contracts make no sense, but you're either wildly over estimating Jaylen or underestimating Lillard. Sure Jaylen is in his prime, bu he's a much worse player than Dame. Dame would have to fall off a cliff while Jaylen improved for it to get close. Given the length of windows (and Tatum's contract) you generally have 2-3 years. Dame is a very good bet to increase your title odds each of those years.
The Warriors were a lot better than the LeBron Cavs most years.
Dame doesn't have much playoff success, but being the best player on a team going against the best team ever constructed with no teammates who would make the other team's top 6 is tough, and not really indicative of future success as the #2 on the most talented roster in the league
The starting lineup included Mo Harkless, Al-Farouq Aminu and Enes Kanter. A year later these guys weren’t even in NBA rotations. The fact that he drug that team to the Western Conference Finals was a miracle in and of itself.
These are both true, he's mostly had pretty mediocre teammates. My only point is to throw some cold water on the idea of him as a playoff killer, because he's only ever really done it in the 1st round. He's never won a game beyond the 2nd round, and his one trip to the WCF was after beating the baby Nuggets in their first playoff run (Jokic was 23, Murray was 21). There has only been a handful of series ending shots ever and he has two of them, but they were both in the first round against unremarkable opponents.
I picked the "no" option in the poll, because it's too much of a step back defensively to swap for Jaylen and the other trades just kill our depth for an older injury prone small guard (a week ago I might have thought differently, but it's a different story now with most of the FAs gone) when we already have an injury prone acquisition in KP. The best argument I can see for acquiring him is to keep him away from Miami (Dame/Butler/Bam is a terrifying, well-rounded trio), but when you're already a title contender, you don't make franchise altering moves just to hurt one of your competitors.
Did we really need an Evan Sidery tweet to come to this obvious conclusion?
What value does a 2024 swap have for the Blazers though? This is a non-factor and I'd guess 2026 isn't much better but at least carries "some" chance of conveying.
Definitely agree his playoff rep is overstated based on a few shots.
I'm not particularly concerned about depth after a non-jaylen trade though. You need 7 or 8 guys you trust.
Post trade you'd be looking at Porzingis, Tatum, Dame, White, Jaylen, Horford, Grant Hauser.
Yeah you'd like 1 more ball handler but you're not in bad shape, As to injuries.. If one of your top 2 gets hurt you lose, same as every NBA team.
A ‘24 pick swap with a title contender when you’re a lottery team has zero value. Who gives a shit if you have the ability to swap your lottery pick for a selection in the 25-30 range?
Holy shit folks. I already said like 5 times, I wasn't arguing the value, I was replying to someone who said that their 2024 and 2026 picks were not eligible to be swapped
Portland has repeatedly failed to surround Lillard with any real NBA talent and especially the sort that accentuates his strengths while covering his defense. Its not their fault they never drafted a Draymond Green but they consistently cheaped out around Dame and now we get all these takes that he isn't that good.
Dame Lillard is a significantly better basketball player than Jaylen Brown. People can disagree but most people who follow the league and, more importantly, just about any stats back this up.
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It's absolutely inarguable that Lillard has been better thus far (and is a better style fit with Tatum), but it's more than a remote possibility that Jaylen Brown (6 years younger, more durable and a borderline top 20 player) will better than Lillard as soon as this coming season, and for sure will be better at some point in the next 2-4 years.
Pretty remote this year, 4 years sure could be, but by then most of this roster will be gone, potentially including Tatum if they don't win a ring.
The Stepien rule isn't there to prevent GMs from doing stupid things, it's there for the owners. Ted Stepien was a Cavs owner who made a series of comedically awful trades and nearly killed basketball in Cleveland.
It would not be a good thing for the commissioner to wave his finger in the air and veto trades consistently on a whim. Having a hard and fast rule is considerably a better idea and it prevents owners like Dolan etc. from acting on their worst impulses. It's a good rule.
Yeah maybe. Defenses are not close to respecting JB the way they do Tatum and Lillard. It’s not clear to me JB is a superstar without playing off Tatum. I hope he is but that game 7 was really depressing and not just because he missed shots.
I would expect Dame to age exceptionally well, but injuries are definitely a concern.
He was INSANE last season, I wouldn’t expect him to drop off for awhile.
He was INSANE last season, I wouldn’t expect him to drop off for awhile.
Nothing is for sure but its entirely possible that Jaylen Brown is better than Dame in a year or two.
I would argue that that may not matter - NBA windows are really only about two years-ish and then everything seems to shift. Jayson Tatum may not be in Boston in two years.
How about if we rephrase slightly, from "better" to "provides more value?" Brown played the same number of games (including playoffs) this year as Lillard did in the last two seasons combined. That's skewed somewhat because obviously Lillard didn't make the playoffs and the Blazers sat him down with a couple weeks left, but Lillard played just 58 games this year - are we taking the over on that next year?
I'm not seeing the fit here for either team - giving up Brown straight up (essentially) for Dame is really risky for both teams, and I think any package involving mid-career role players and future 1sts with questionable value isn't nearly enough. Maybe it beats an offer from Miami centered around Herro, but if Portland is looking beyond Miami, there has to better options than Boston. If there aren't, Portland should hold him for a few months and look to move him before the trade deadline to see whose situation changes.
One thing we should all remember when discussing Jaylen is that DARKO is an outlier among advanced metrics on him. Every other metric thinks there is a big gulf between Jaylen and Lillard whereas DARKO thinks Lillard is clearly better but not massively so. As a result, I think DARKO comparisons for Jaylen should be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism as to whether it is overvaluing him. I also recognize reasonable minds could disagree because DARKO is the only advanced metric that values Jaylen consistent with his reputation in the league.
Are these metrics even worth looking at if they think that Derrick White is a slam dunk better player than Jaylen Brown?
The Heat have nothing to give. The question is who does? The Pelicans, if in fact they are willing to make this deal. I bet Memphis wishes they hadn’t dealt for Smart.
They’re considered two of the three best impact stats, along with DARKO, FWIW.
Also, advanced stats aren’t an outright player ranking, more how the players play their role.
https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/