Thank god for Tweetdeck. I got a screen capture but for Buddha's sake that is the fakest Schefter handle I've ever seen.
2017 Patriots Only Trade Deadline Game Thread
- Thread starter Stitch01
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Belichick acquired him for a 4th rounder, then traded him back to the Cardinals for a 3rd. #genius
It's very plausible that the Pats planted a Fitz look alike at Logan to fuel Fitz-to-the-Pats rumors for leverage in their negotiations with the Dolphins for Landry.
We did nothing to improve ourselves for 2017 except trade away our backup QB. :|
And the team fighting for the division with us just acquired Kelvin Benjamin
And the team fighting for the division with us just acquired Kelvin Benjamin
If the deals are not there to be made on reasonable terms, one shouldn’t force them.
JG was a separate transaction for 2018 and beyond.
Envious non-Schefter reporters insisted. On tying the two together last night in various tweet storms.
JG was a separate transaction for 2018 and beyond.
Envious non-Schefter reporters insisted. On tying the two together last night in various tweet storms.
La Canfora (and even Bedard) not looking so good right now with their prognostications that the Patriots were poised to make some big acquisition.
Not that we should be surprised. Has this team *ever* picked up a major player at the deadline?
Not that we should be surprised. Has this team *ever* picked up a major player at the deadline?
Was he? My sense is that he was sort of a bust who had off the field problems. I could be misremembering.
He was inconsistent and did have off-field. But it was still a pretty big deal; he was a former first with talent. I would say comparable to the Benjamin trade, or the Collins trade last year.
Papelbon's Poutine in post #329 of the Jimmy G to 49ers thread.
Despite what it stands for, GFIN doesn't have to mean go for it THIS year. I think GFIN reflects the Tom Brady Window (TM). This second rounder could be enormous for the last few years of the Tom Brady Window. Either acquiring a great young player or moving the pick (or their own 2nd rounder or whatever) to pick up a player they like.
I thought it was sort of funny to read bold Pats related tweets from the same group of reporters who just spent six months telling us the Pats turned down #12 from Cleveland and weren't even listening to trade offers for JG
Pats don't leak very much.
Agreed. BB doesn't empty his roster of all QBs under 40 without a plan. Thinking he has found the "QB of The Future (TM)" and will draft or trade for him in the Spring.
Yep, and as others have noted, that doesn't necessarily mean cash in everything for this season. But I think it's obvious that BB isn't planning on being around much longer. His entire tenure has been about acquiring longer term assets, pushing value to the future when the difference is negligible and stockpiling assets while paying reasonable rates.
Yet this season, he's traded both backup QBs, signed a huge FA contract for a CB and moved his 1st round pick for a WR (something he's never spent a 1st on before, draft or trade). That he didn't make a trade today to acquire someone doesn't mean that wasn't his intent or he didn't try. It could very well be that with the parity this year, teams were asking too much for guys or it could mean that no one wanted to do business on players he saw as a fit.
As it is, I'm not sure its even debatable that this season has been out of character for him. And to me at least, that tells me something.
Not disputing any of that, but surely BB is not planning to leave the Pats gutted after his departure, not to mention the Krafts have a keen interest in this. I imagine Belichick the teacher would love to see his successor have success also, so to speak. And I've said before, the Krafts seem to be smart and no doubt are trying to learn from stable franchises that have seen success over several coaching regimes and at least two generations of family ownership. Steelers and Giants come to mind.
Exactly. I'll concede that this year has been a bit out of the ordinary, but I'm not sure that's because he's in GFIN mode, or because BB is never a slave to any one particular "approach" and is always looking for the best way to build a team. Whatever deal that Kraft and BB have in terms of Kraft letting BB run the show without interference, I am sure they have had discussions about what it looks like when Bill wants to be done with coaching, and what the transition is like to the next guy, whoever that is. And I can't believe Kraft would be on board with a GFIN approach that leaves the next guy with a somewhat bare cupboard. The next guy is going to have a hard enough time living up to BB's standards even if he isn't left with a less than ideal roster caused by BB trying to win one more on his way out the door.
This year is Bradys window. He's 40. We literally watched Manning play great football for a few weeks, then fall directly off a cliff. There's no guarantee that Tom is Tom at the end of the year, let alone next year.
Edit: By literally, I mean I wish we literally watch him fall directly off a cliff...
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BB may believe that the Tom Brady window is beyond this year. He sees him up close more than any of us do.
Surely Manning's massive health (or lack of) played directly into that drop off. Brady doesn't have any major lingering issues. So barring something traumatic, his decline should be much less steep.
I'm not sure if that's the only comp. I'm mobile, but I'm sure there's other great QB''s who went from standard level of performance to below-replacement level very quickly.
I'm not sure there's going to be many modern era QB's who've lasted this long for there to be a really good comp. Earlier QB's played in a league which was much less QB friendly - so the contact they took would have been much more significant.
We're really getting into uncharted territory here.
I don't know about "out of character," because part of Belichick's MO is to not have an MO, but you are right they are unprecedented? Are they GFIN, though? I don't see it. Trading a first-rounder seems GFIN, but Cooks was 23 at the time of the trade, so that makes that unit younger. Gilmore was 26. They got younger at TE (Bennett for Allen). They got younger at RB (Blount for Gillislee and Burkhead). They got younger at OL (drafting two OT). They got younger at edge (Sheard and Long gone, drafting Rivers and Wise, and Ealy is young, too). And of course, looking at a longer timeline than just one year, they dealt Jones and Collins, let Ryan walk, etc.
Really, the GFIN-iest move was probably re-signing Dont'a Hightower.
Looking at the moves as a whole, I'm kind of reminded of Ben Cherington's moves a few years ago. The team had lost a bunch of young talent because of trades (Rizzo), flops (Lars Anderson), and tragedy (Ryan Westmoreland), with the consequence that they had some really young guys (Bogaerts / Betts etc. at 21/22) and guys over 29/30 and basically no prime 26/27 talent. He went out and got guys like Joe Kelly and Porcello and Sandoval and Rusney Castillo to fill in that gap (mostly with disastrous results). I think we see something similar here - the Pats have a talent gap because Easley busted and they lost the Deflategate pick, so Belichick tried to fill that gap by getting some guys in that age range (Rowe and Van Noy in this category, too). There's some overlap with that approach and GFIN, but it's not likely they've been throwing resources after old guys or compromising the future cap
Its been discussed before on here and the conclusion was its a cliff more often than its a gradual decline. Brady’s a wizard so maybe his cliff comes in 2030 or something, but I think you have the right view on the “Brady window”.
This is the list of NFL quarterbacks that played into their 40s:
Mark Brunell
He played at age 40 and 41. Brunell's last good season was when he was 35, in 2005. 3050 yds, 23 td, 10 int, 85.9 rating. After that he played a lot of part-time seasons as a backup. So he hung on in the league but he was not a good player in his 40s.
Earl Morrall
He played through age 42, but his last season as a starter was at age 34, in 1968. From age 35-42, he was just a backup. At times, a pretty effective one (see 1972), but still, just a backup.
Doug Flutie
Played through age 43. His last season as a starter was at 39, in 2001. 56.4%, 3464 yds, 15 td, 18 int, 72.0 rating. So....not so good at age 39. As a 40, 41, 42, and 43 year old, nothing but a backup playing sparingly.
Vinny Testaverde
Played through age 44. His last good year was at 35 years of age, in 1998: 3256 yds, 29 td, 7 int, 101.6 rating. He started several seasons after that (2000, 2001, 2004), but never better than a 76.4 rating as a starter. His QB rating his last 9 seasons: 74.0, 58.4%, 71 td, 77 int. In other words, good enough to hang around the league but not really very good as he got into his 40s.
Warren Moon
Played through age 44. Moon was a pro-bowl level QB in his late 30s, putting up a fantastic season at age 39 (4228 yds, 33 td, 13 int, 96.8 rating). Had another good season at age 41 (3678 yds, 25 td, 16 int, 83.7 rating). But then after that, pretty much fell off a cliff the last three years.
Steve DeBerg
Played as a 44 year old, but his career arc was weird. Started at age 37 and was so-so. Excellent at age 36. But after his age 39 season, he took a bunch of years and was not in the NFL. He returned to Atlanta at age 44 as a backup, and was surprisingly decent in limited playing time. 30-59, 50.8%, 3 td, 1 int, 80.4 rating.
George Blanda
His career was obviously unique. Last year as a good starting QB was at age 34: 3330 yds, 36 td, 22 int, 91.3 rating. He started a few more years at QB but was pretty mediocre. A bunch of TDs but my god a gazillion interceptions. His numbers his last 5 years as a starting QB: 48.1%, 105 td, 145 int, 57.0 rating. He then became a full time kicker at age 40 and played that position through age 48, incredibly.
Brett Favre
He is the gold standard for NFL QB in their 40s. At age 40, Favre put up this season with Minnesota: 68.4%, 4202 yds, 33 td, 7 int, 107.2 rating. Phenomenal. Then at age 41 he suffered a very steep decline (11 td, 19 int, 69.9 rating), and then was done after that.
The two best 40+ seasons an NFL QB has ever had are:
Moon (age 41): 59.3%, 3678 yds, 25 td, 16 int, 83.7 rating
Favre (age 40): 68.4%, 4202 yds, 33 td, 7 int, 107.2 rating
Tom Brady may fall off a cliff. But here's his age 40 season so far in comparison:
Brady (age 40): 66.7%, 2541 yds, 16 td, 2 int, 106.5 rating
Brady (projected): 66.7%, 5082 yds, 32 td, 4 int, 106.5 rating
Favre, though, was already showing serious signs of inconsistency. Here are his TD/INT and passer rating numbers from ages 35-41:
Age 35: 30 td, 17 int, 92.4 rating
Age 36: 20 td, 29 int, 70.9 rating
Age 37: 18 td, 18 int, 72.7 rating
Age 38: 28 td, 15 int, 95.7 rating
Age 39: 22 td, 22 int, 81.0 rating
Age 40: 33 td, 7 int, 107.2 rating
Age 41: 11 td, 19 int, 69.9 rating
So that one great year at age 40 seems like a bit of an outlier. In fact, Favre's passer rating at age 40 was by far the best of his career (previous high: 99.5). Compare those numbers to Brady's:
Age 35: 34 td, 8 int, 98.7 rating
Age 36: 25 td, 11 int, 87.3 rating
Age 37: 33 td, 9 int, 97.4 rating
Age 38: 36 td, 7 int, 102.2 rating
Age 39: 28 td, 2 int, 112.2 rating
Age 40: 16 td, 2 int, 106.5 rating
Brady's age 40 season is right in between his age 38 and age 39 seasons. Not a statistical outlier at all. His 106.5 is only the 4th best rating of his career. Not a freakish thing at all. He's just....this good.
Father Time is undefeated. But every now and then someone puts up a little fight. Moon did. Favre did. But Father Time has NEVER seen an opponent like Tom Brady. Brady might be done in an instant - one crushing blow could end his career. But that's true, of course, for every player in the NFL regardless of age. The NFL simply has never seen anything like Brady.
If I was an actuary, I'd have no idea how to fit Brady into my statistical model. He just doesn't fit any previously known pattern in the history of the NFL.
Mark Brunell
He played at age 40 and 41. Brunell's last good season was when he was 35, in 2005. 3050 yds, 23 td, 10 int, 85.9 rating. After that he played a lot of part-time seasons as a backup. So he hung on in the league but he was not a good player in his 40s.
Earl Morrall
He played through age 42, but his last season as a starter was at age 34, in 1968. From age 35-42, he was just a backup. At times, a pretty effective one (see 1972), but still, just a backup.
Doug Flutie
Played through age 43. His last season as a starter was at 39, in 2001. 56.4%, 3464 yds, 15 td, 18 int, 72.0 rating. So....not so good at age 39. As a 40, 41, 42, and 43 year old, nothing but a backup playing sparingly.
Vinny Testaverde
Played through age 44. His last good year was at 35 years of age, in 1998: 3256 yds, 29 td, 7 int, 101.6 rating. He started several seasons after that (2000, 2001, 2004), but never better than a 76.4 rating as a starter. His QB rating his last 9 seasons: 74.0, 58.4%, 71 td, 77 int. In other words, good enough to hang around the league but not really very good as he got into his 40s.
Warren Moon
Played through age 44. Moon was a pro-bowl level QB in his late 30s, putting up a fantastic season at age 39 (4228 yds, 33 td, 13 int, 96.8 rating). Had another good season at age 41 (3678 yds, 25 td, 16 int, 83.7 rating). But then after that, pretty much fell off a cliff the last three years.
Steve DeBerg
Played as a 44 year old, but his career arc was weird. Started at age 37 and was so-so. Excellent at age 36. But after his age 39 season, he took a bunch of years and was not in the NFL. He returned to Atlanta at age 44 as a backup, and was surprisingly decent in limited playing time. 30-59, 50.8%, 3 td, 1 int, 80.4 rating.
George Blanda
His career was obviously unique. Last year as a good starting QB was at age 34: 3330 yds, 36 td, 22 int, 91.3 rating. He started a few more years at QB but was pretty mediocre. A bunch of TDs but my god a gazillion interceptions. His numbers his last 5 years as a starting QB: 48.1%, 105 td, 145 int, 57.0 rating. He then became a full time kicker at age 40 and played that position through age 48, incredibly.
Brett Favre
He is the gold standard for NFL QB in their 40s. At age 40, Favre put up this season with Minnesota: 68.4%, 4202 yds, 33 td, 7 int, 107.2 rating. Phenomenal. Then at age 41 he suffered a very steep decline (11 td, 19 int, 69.9 rating), and then was done after that.
The two best 40+ seasons an NFL QB has ever had are:
Moon (age 41): 59.3%, 3678 yds, 25 td, 16 int, 83.7 rating
Favre (age 40): 68.4%, 4202 yds, 33 td, 7 int, 107.2 rating
Tom Brady may fall off a cliff. But here's his age 40 season so far in comparison:
Brady (age 40): 66.7%, 2541 yds, 16 td, 2 int, 106.5 rating
Brady (projected): 66.7%, 5082 yds, 32 td, 4 int, 106.5 rating
Favre, though, was already showing serious signs of inconsistency. Here are his TD/INT and passer rating numbers from ages 35-41:
Age 35: 30 td, 17 int, 92.4 rating
Age 36: 20 td, 29 int, 70.9 rating
Age 37: 18 td, 18 int, 72.7 rating
Age 38: 28 td, 15 int, 95.7 rating
Age 39: 22 td, 22 int, 81.0 rating
Age 40: 33 td, 7 int, 107.2 rating
Age 41: 11 td, 19 int, 69.9 rating
So that one great year at age 40 seems like a bit of an outlier. In fact, Favre's passer rating at age 40 was by far the best of his career (previous high: 99.5). Compare those numbers to Brady's:
Age 35: 34 td, 8 int, 98.7 rating
Age 36: 25 td, 11 int, 87.3 rating
Age 37: 33 td, 9 int, 97.4 rating
Age 38: 36 td, 7 int, 102.2 rating
Age 39: 28 td, 2 int, 112.2 rating
Age 40: 16 td, 2 int, 106.5 rating
Brady's age 40 season is right in between his age 38 and age 39 seasons. Not a statistical outlier at all. His 106.5 is only the 4th best rating of his career. Not a freakish thing at all. He's just....this good.
Father Time is undefeated. But every now and then someone puts up a little fight. Moon did. Favre did. But Father Time has NEVER seen an opponent like Tom Brady. Brady might be done in an instant - one crushing blow could end his career. But that's true, of course, for every player in the NFL regardless of age. The NFL simply has never seen anything like Brady.
If I was an actuary, I'd have no idea how to fit Brady into my statistical model. He just doesn't fit any previously known pattern in the history of the NFL.
I appreciate the work, but 40 is an arbitrary cutoff.
The point is, when QB's are done, they are done fast. Whether that's at 40, 35, 30...whenever. As Stitch mentioned, there has already been analysis done with this conclusion. When Brady goes, we're going to suffer a bad half/full season. It will probably not be a gradual decline that culminates with a SB win and seamless transition to a new QB.
Brady is also with a generationally stable team. So none of his aging-related concerns are complicated by learning new schemes, like Favre or Moon.
At this point, the only truthful answer that BB can give is "I'll know it when I see it."
One of the interesting things to me is that, as unique as Brady is in terms of the age curve, I wonder if he will be unique in recognizing his own decline and getting out on his own.
I know 40 is an arbitrary cutoff. So is any number. The point is that Brady is doing things unprecedented in NFL history. He simply doesn't fit the normal statistical model.
I agree with you that he's likely to decline sharply and when he does, it will probably be pretty sad and ugly. But again, keep in mind that his situation is very different from Favre and even Peyton.
Peyton had for a long time dealt with a serious neck injury. Brady doesn't have anything like that.
Favre was already inconsistent and his great age 40 season was a total statistical outlier in his career. Brady has been consistently great for a long time.
So Brady doesn't have the physical issue that Peyton did. And his career arc is not remotely like Favre's. Again, there's no precedent for what Brady is doing at his age.
We simply have NO idea how long this will last.
All this being said, I really think they clearly need to invest another draft pick in a QB in the 2018 draft.
If it happens to everybody, then there is very little a team can do short of having an NFL-ready backup on hand. It seems that the Patriots had that, but the structure of the league made it difficult to keep him on hand AND keep the team at the top.
Another alternative is to do what the 49ers did with Montana or GB with Favre, just cut him loose because you know the end is near and will be swift. But where Brady is playing at such an insanely high level, that's a tough call.
I'm not sure what the argument you're making is. We both acknowledge we have no idea how long this will last for Brady, and we also both acknowledge when the decline comes, it probably hits hard. The difference in our thought is that, because of those two variables, I believe the GFIN window needs to be readjusted to a much shorter timeframe. You're of the opinion that it should be a multiple year timeframe (this year and next, at minimum). Both opinions are valid, and I'm not sure debating the side issues will really change the core discussion.
Yeah, we are both just offering conjecture I suppose. You characterize my view correctly - that GFIN is 2017 and 2018 and anything beyond that is total gravy. Because, look, unless Brady gets injured, he's going to finish this season as one of the NFL's top quarterbacks, and then he's absolutely, positively the starting QB in 2018. And he will have a LONG leash in 2018. So he's the man in 2018. If he has a so-so season for him (say, 25 td, 15 int, 90 rating), he'll almost certainly be the man in 2019 as well, albeit with a much shorter leash at that point. If, however, he has a horrible 2018 season (18 td, 19 int, 70 rating) and appears to be toast, then I bet they move on after that.
So the window is absolutely 2017 and almost certainly 2018. It's exceedingly difficult to believe, given that he's exceeded every expectation ever put on him throughout his career, and he's outperformed the traditional NFL age curve exponentially, that he'll truly fall off a cliff in 2018. I'd expect a so-so (for him) 2018 followed by the cliff in 2019, if in fact he's approaching his decline (which, to be honest, we've really not seen any evidence of, given that his past three seasons have been three of his best ever seasons).
And that would mean that the Pats would STILL have a chance at the Super Bowl in 2018 with Brady having a so-so season, assuming they built the rest of the roster accordingly. Hence, the window is a 2-year window, barring catastrophic injury to Brady.
I'm not sure where the window is myself. But we've got trusted medical guys (DaveRobertsShoes) saying that in general drastic/inevitable physical decline is more of a 50s number than a 40s number. So then we are looking at things like injuries (and recovery from them) as being an accelerator for decline. We don't have that in this case that we know of. So what's left?
Complacency in training and of doing the work in the film room to keep himself prepared? I've heard no reports of this in any form or any weakening of his personal drive.
Taming care of his body/mind to prevent acceleration of the aging? By all accounts Mr Avacado lives as perfect a personal nutrition life as possible, with state of the art research (and possible deals with the devil) guiding him. He is involved with top secret mental acuity exercise to keep his mental reactions at their best. He works on flexibility like a 12 year old gymnast. I'm not sure what rocks haven't been turned over that don't involve 'eye of newt' as an ingredient.
All that to say that I think barring injury that could affect a QB of any age, I see nothing to indicate a decline in HIS case would be swift, rather than a slow one. I think a Pats fan's biggest fear has to be his super model of a wife putting her foot down and saying no more. I think she says 'no mas' before he does.
Trying to compare previous QB lifespans (even edge cases) feels like a fools errand given the details of those players situations. Injuries, partying, antiquated training methods/approaches.
Contract wise, do the Patriots have any unused carry over cap money hanging around? This coming one might be the year to apply it to Brady's salary (14M + 7M bonus?) and prevent any long term cap issues.
I think BB has to be prepared for a catastrophic injury (like any coach/GM) and finding the next QB for a 2/3+ year window. He needs to find the next Jimmy G for then (and then laugh if Brady decides to outlast that one too!).
Sorry for the wall of text.
Complacency in training and of doing the work in the film room to keep himself prepared? I've heard no reports of this in any form or any weakening of his personal drive.
Taming care of his body/mind to prevent acceleration of the aging? By all accounts Mr Avacado lives as perfect a personal nutrition life as possible, with state of the art research (and possible deals with the devil) guiding him. He is involved with top secret mental acuity exercise to keep his mental reactions at their best. He works on flexibility like a 12 year old gymnast. I'm not sure what rocks haven't been turned over that don't involve 'eye of newt' as an ingredient.
All that to say that I think barring injury that could affect a QB of any age, I see nothing to indicate a decline in HIS case would be swift, rather than a slow one. I think a Pats fan's biggest fear has to be his super model of a wife putting her foot down and saying no more. I think she says 'no mas' before he does.
Trying to compare previous QB lifespans (even edge cases) feels like a fools errand given the details of those players situations. Injuries, partying, antiquated training methods/approaches.
Contract wise, do the Patriots have any unused carry over cap money hanging around? This coming one might be the year to apply it to Brady's salary (14M + 7M bonus?) and prevent any long term cap issues.
I think BB has to be prepared for a catastrophic injury (like any coach/GM) and finding the next QB for a 2/3+ year window. He needs to find the next Jimmy G for then (and then laugh if Brady decides to outlast that one too!).
Sorry for the wall of text.