2018 NBA Draft Lottery
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Last year it started at 8 and we knew top 3 around 8:45.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/draft-lottery-game-thread.19325/
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/draft-lottery-game-thread.19325/
I'm 100% convinced we are getting pick 3 because we've been there the last couple years. Also convinced the Cavs will get pick 1, because they win the lottery every time they are in it.
Is there any creative scenario where Danny could use our first round pick, next year's Philly and Memphis pick to trade up into this year's top eight? Would we want to do this anyway?
I think if the Magic land outside the top 3 that you may be able to entice them with a Rozier+Kings pick package. I can't really see it with any other team in the top 8.
If pick 10 comes and the Lakers pick still hasnt, that is going to be an extremely angsty few minutes.
If pick 10 comes and the Lakers pick still hasnt, that is going to be an extremely angsty few minutes.
If pick 10 comes and the Lakers pick remains in play, how do the odds for each spot recalculate?
If we know that LAL pick has moved into the top 3, I belive it breaks down to this
1st 27.5%
2nd 32.5%
3rd 40%
File this under ironic/creative/not happening:
Philly may want to delay getting a lottery pick, to maintain cap flexibility going into free agency this summer. So If they had a
Doubt Colangelo deals with Ainge on draft picks anytime soon
Philly seems like the only organization in this lottery, in an excellent draft class, that would have any motivation in moving their pick for a future pick.
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The only way Philly gets a top 8 pick is if it's #1 overall.
I don't see why Danny would send a package including the Sac pick to get #10 when he was the one that put top 5 protection on the Philly pick.
I don't see why Danny would send a package including the Sac pick to get #10 when he was the one that put top 5 protection on the Philly pick.
Yeah, Weltman and Hammond have a history of prioritizing athleticism, defense and positional length, so they may not be particularly keen on Trae Young, but they desperately need a point guard. Exhibit A:
Apparently the Mavs will be open to deals. Not sure what it would take to jump up depending on where they land.
That's wild. And I'm sure you're calculating it from the Pick Odds, but just to be clear and to re-state this:
- There is a ~9.1% chance the Lakers pick is #11, #12 or #13.
- There is an 87% chance the Lakers pick is #10. This will likely end the drama early.
- IF IT IS NOT #10+, in that 4.0% chance, then it's #1, 2 or 3. Those odds respectively overall are 1.1%, 1.3%, and 1.6%.
- Dividing those through by their totals gives you moops' odds: 27.5% of #1, 32.5% of #2 and 40.0% of #3.
This means that if the Lakers pick isn't #10+, our chances of it conveying and us getting Ayton or Doncic or the juicy prospects this year go up immediately to 72.5%. But the remaining 27.5% of the time, Philly gets another #1 pick. That will be some serious sweating bullets around here.
The same calculations apply to Cleveland's brooklyn pick:
- There is a 17.6% chance it's #9, 10 or 11.
- There is a 72.5% chance it's #8.
- In the 9.9% chance that it's not 8-11, it is #1, #2 or #3. Those picks break down as:
- 28% chance of #1, 33% chance of #2, 39% chance of #3.
- If only we'd lost that last game against Brooklyn, and then the Nets lost that coin flip, those odds would have dropped to the Nets' current 6.1% chance instead of 9.9% chance. Alas, Australia was ascendant.
My sportsbook has over 200 draft lottery wagers available in the form of "[Team X] will/won't get the [N]th pick" They got the odds wrong on exactly two of them, meaning that they accidentally gave a small edge to the bettor. One of those two was "Brooklyn Nets get 2nd pick". I'm taking that as a sign.
I suppose someone should point out that tonight, approaching the 10th anniversary of the epic Game 7 battle with LeBron, and in the year his number, this number, was retired here...the odds of the Celtics stealing the Lakers top-3 draft pick tonight?
Yep.
34-1
I would love JJJ on this team. He fits in better than any other draft prospect IMO. Potentially an elite rim protector and the best three point shooter among the bigs.
Jackson vs. Wendell Carter would be an interesting discussion. I know we've talked about it but Carter is the next Big Al IMO
I'd take Bamba or Doncic. Bambi has remade himself this spring and developed a better jump shot.
Better block rates than Bamba, much better perimeter defense, and a much better bet to be a good shooter (40% 3pt, 80%ft vs 28% & 68%). Plus he’s over a year younger. I’d love to see him develop under Stevens. A long shot, I know.
Think I asked this last year (hilarious that we're here again), but if you could only have one, would you take #2-3 or bouncing the Cavs (with no guarantees in the Finals)?
2-3. I'd take nothing and bounce the Warriors though. Let's do that one.
Now the top 3 picks last year would have gone to the the same teams no matter what order C's, Lakers, Sixers were in, right?
Aw man...it would be a horrible look for Lebron to lose to the Hospital Celtics but I'm taking the pick. My smug satisfaction would last longer with the pick.
Eh, in the 98 percent chance we don't hit 2 or 3 this year, we're likely to get a lottery pick next year anyways.
Baaaaaad juju with #2. #3 has yielded:
McHale
Tatum
Brown
Billups
I’m sticking with #3!
That's what I thought. Someone said if the Sixers are shown at 10-13 that the Lakers pick was in the top 3 but thought that was wrong.
Something about the draft process makes me uneasy in a people as property kind of way. Unfortunately I can't think of a better alternative.