2021-2022 Bruins Season Thread

MiracleOfO2704 · Feb 10, 2022

Why bother with Studnicka at this stage if you’re gonna put him between two offensive anchors? And yes, I know I’m preaching to the choir, but their actions clearly state they don’t value the kid.

The Napkin · Feb 16, 2022

Fluto Shinzawa
@FlutoShinzawa
Patrice Bergeron is good to go. Did not have a concussion.

Lupe Whalewatch · Feb 17, 2022

Marchand supposedly had his hearing yesterday, right?

Salem's Lot · Feb 17, 2022

Lupe Whalewatch said:
Marchand supposedly had his hearing yesterday, right?

I bet they issue the denial on Monday at 4pm.

ColdSoxPack · Feb 18, 2022

Nope. Denied just now.

per Bettman:
The National Hockey League on Friday night upheld Brad Marchand’s six-game suspension for extracurriculars with Pittsburgh goalie Tristan Jarry, citing the Bruins forward’s “behavior and lack of judgment” and declaring “he created a distraction which reflected poorly on himself, on his team and on the League as a whole.”
“I encourage Mr. Marchand to reflect on this experience and to use it positively in furtherance of his efforts to refine and improve his on-ice image and game for everyone’s benefit,” commissioner Gary Bettman wrote in the conclusion of a lengthy ruling denying Marchand’s appeal.

The Napkin · Feb 18, 2022

Marchand should have just told him it was an emotional moment then it would have been okay.

Myt1 · Feb 18, 2022

Yeah, the best all around left wing definitely needs to improve his game.

Good to see Bettman turn into the pitch that this—and by implication, the previous suspension—were all about image and have nothing to do with player safety, though.

Ferm Sheller · Feb 18, 2022

He should have attended the appeal meeting in a Tom Wilson jersey.

Greg29fan · Feb 18, 2022

cshea said:
I'd really like to know what the magic words were that Jarry said to Marchand. Marchand is basically universally acknowledged as the biggest trash talker in the NHL. I don't get the impression that he's particularly thin skinned when guys chirp back. Must've invoked Marchand's kids or something that significantly crosses the line. Not that it matters in terms of the forthcoming suspension.

Survey says - wrong

View: https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1494838256890007555

durandal1707 · Feb 18, 2022

If I was Neely or Sweeney I'd set aside the fine money ahead of time and show the video of Tuukka getting elbowed to the back of the head by a Columbus player (which earned no suspension IIRC) where Tuukka was out with a concussion for several games following. And then maybe follow that up with a video of Tom Wilson smearing Brandon Carlo's brains against the glass.

This league is run by a cohort of the most intellectually lazy and morally bankrupt people imaginable. DOPS is clearly a fucking farce that only exists to mitigate the threat of a lawsuit. They react only when a controversy emerges and they're all but forced to do something.

So make a fucking controversy. The players on this team might as well paint fucking targets on their helmets for all the headhunting shitbags this league enables to take runs at them. And if there's a bad outcome from a routine play involving a Bruin all of a sudden it deserves the highest level of scrutiny. Jesus fucking christ, this team's roster is overall mediocre, but it's a sign of their professionalism that they are competitive at all given this ridiculous double standard they're forced to play under every game.

Put this trashfire league on fucking blast already. Either that or find out if any league executives have a kid you can employ. That seemed to alleviate the problem a bit last time.

Salem's Lot · Feb 18, 2022

ColdSoxPack said:
Nope. Denied just now.

per Bettman:
The National Hockey League on Friday night upheld Brad Marchand’s six-game suspension for extracurriculars with Pittsburgh goalie Tristan Jarry, citing the Bruins forward’s “behavior and lack of judgment” and declaring “he created a distraction which reflected poorly on himself, on his team and on the League as a whole.”
“I encourage Mr. Marchand to reflect on this experience and to use it positively in furtherance of his efforts to refine and improve his on-ice image and game for everyone’s benefit,” commissioner Gary Bettman wrote in the conclusion of a lengthy ruling denying Marchand’s appeal.

Translation “We are still pissed that you licked a guy on the most high profile team in the league in the playoffs, and we will punish you every chance we get.”

Myt1 · Feb 19, 2022

I’m pretty much done with this front office and coach at this point. Zdeno Chara’s corpse would give more than Tinordi and Forbort over the past two years, more cheaply, but they suggested he move on . . . so they could play all the talented LD kids. And, last playoffs, Cassidy, et al. basically sent Pedro back out there for the 8th inning, only Pedro was both exhausted and suffering from a career-ending injury that rendered him unable to move.

tmracht · Feb 19, 2022

Salem's Lot said:
Translation “We are still pissed that you licked a guy on the most high profile team in the league in the playoffs, and we will punish you every chance we get.”

And you complained about the Olympics in public.

Gammon_Clark · Feb 23, 2022

Wow, cannot wait to see it!

IdiotKicker · Feb 23, 2022

A legit 2C makes that lineup look really, really deep.

biff_hardbody · Feb 23, 2022

Is it too much to ask for a legit 2C and a RW that can play with the top line? Maybe they can get a RH winger in exchange for Debrusk? Someone of similar caliber to Smith would make that group of forwards really, really good.

In a weird way, I think they are set on D. Upgrading Clifton would be nice but imo is less of a priority that a 2C and RH winger.

Maximus · Feb 23, 2022

2C is the glaring need. Big LHD would be helpful.

BostonFanInCanesLand · Feb 24, 2022

Cassidy with a decently coherent explanation of why Studnicka got sent down before the road trip. (With Marchand back on the ice).

Bottom line, 4 centers ahead of him right now, need him to keep getting reps at center, likes his 200 foot game development.

Unfortunately it still seems like Cassidy isn’t sold on his offensive game (but is coming around on Studnicka’s defensive game). That may explain why he didn’t get reps with the top 6 when Bergeron was out. Hard to show your stuff when you’re anchored with Foligno.

We’ll see what Sweeney thinks when we get to the trade deadline.

"Right now [Froden's] an extra player," said Cassidy. "Jack [Studnicka] played decent hockey for us. With Haula moving back into the middle, Jack would have been out of the middle of the ice. We brough a winger instead…if a center were to get injured, we'd look at Jack. But a little bit was who might be a fit up in the lineup. That was a bit of the reasoning. Froden's played well. If Jack's gonna be out here not playing, that's not gonna make him better. So let's get him playing again if he's not gonna be in the lineup."

Cassidy added that while Studnicka played well at times during his most recent call up, a five-game stint in which he notched an assist, there is still plenty of room for the 23-year-old to grow. "What I saw was a guy that is conscientious, he's trying to play the 200-foot game," said Cassidy. "I think he's competing harder, stronger on pucks. He's always a competitive guy. Just able to compete harder because he's stronger and more mature. He made some plays. Some games, the puck didn't follow him around as much. He had some good looks in the slot, put himself in good spots…for him it's a matter of finding his identity. If he's gonna be an offensive guy, then you have to be expected to make those plays. We trusted him. We put him out for D-zone draws. I like that part of his game. He's a guy that will work to keep the puck out of his net. Right now, the simplest answer is we have four other guys ahead of him in the middle."

https://www.nhl.com/bruins/news/debrusk-to-shift-up-to-bs-top-line-as-marchand-returns/c-331115548.

Ferm Sheller · Feb 25, 2022

Lazar out tomorrow night against the Sharks. Blidh or Froden expected to be in.

https://bostonhockeynow.com/2022/02/25/boston-bruins-lazar-upper-body-out-vs-san-jose-sharks/

TSC · Feb 27, 2022

So, fun fact.

First 33 career games.

Jeremy Swayman

Save% - .931 (1st all time)
GAA - 1.87 (1st all time)

Silverdude2167 · Feb 27, 2022

TSC said:
So, fun fact.

First 33 career games.

Jeremy Swayman

Save% - .931 (1st all time)
GAA - 1.87 (1st all time)

That is a very fun fact.

TSC · Mar 1, 2022

He was non-committal the other day when asked (which leads me to believe he still wants it) but man, if Jake has found his groove and wants to stay in Boston, I certainly would love to keep him.

View: https://twitter.com/ConorRyan_93/status/1498660518738989058?s=20&t=UxdeVlTqcLDMyvkBEhKuyA

joe dokes · Mar 1, 2022

TSC said:
He was non-committal the other day when asked (which leads me to believe he still wants it) but man, if Jake has found his groove and wants to stay in Boston, I certainly would love to keep him.

As Cassidy has said a million times (and again in today's Glob), DeBrusk is a streaky offensive player. Nothing wrong with that. The problem is that when he isn't scoring, the rest of his game disappears. He doesn't have to be Selke (or Bergeron)-level, but when the shots stop falling (as they say) he has to keep doing the same things he does when they *do* go in.

joe dokes · Mar 1, 2022

cshea said:
I don't think he's really playing better or worse than before, he just has the hockey gods smiling on him. 37% shooting percentage over the 5 game heater.

I think he even acknowledged that after the game.

TSC · Mar 1, 2022

joe dokes said:
As Cassidy has said a million times (and again in today's Glob), DeBrusk is a streaky offensive player. Nothing wrong with that. The problem is that when he isn't scoring, the rest of his game disappears. He doesn't have to be Selke (or Bergeron)-level, but when the shots stop falling (as they say) he has to keep doing the same things he does when they *do* go in.

Being streaky offensively isn't what I mean though, I mean more his "compete level" or whatever you want to call it. What gets him in trouble is when he stops skating, not when he stops scoring.

joe dokes · Mar 1, 2022

TSC said:
Being streaky offensively isn't what I mean though, I mean more his "compete level" or whatever you want to call it. What gets him in trouble is when he stops skating, not when he stops scoring.

I think I get it. To Cassidy, at least, one is related to the other. When he stops scoring (whether the scoring is luck-related or not), the other parts of his game -- including skating -- seem to stop as well.

“I think streaky can work both ways,” he said. “It just depends. As long as you get on enough of them, right, and get your numbers at the end of the year. Some guys just get like that.
“I don’t think it’s a negative thing if you eventually get your goals and points and you’re still working through your tough stretches. When people don’t work through their tough stretches, then they’re labeled inconsistent as well.
“So that’s something he’ll have to sort through if he does get into one of those valleys again. But let’s enjoy the peak right now.”

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2022/03/01/sports/jake-debrusk-who-has-asked-be-traded-scores-three-more-goals-bruins-rout-kings/

RedOctober3829 · Mar 1, 2022

This would be huge if that top line w/DeBrusk works alongside the 2nd line that has been so hot. So much was on the top line w/Pasta in the past and if they didn't dominate they would be out quickly in the playoffs. If they can get the top 2 lines playing well and carry that into the playoffs along with a hot Swayman, they have as good of a shot as any to come out of the East.

burstnbloom · Mar 1, 2022

RedOctober3829 said:
This would be huge if that top line w/DeBrusk works alongside the 2nd line that has been so hot. So much was on the top line w/Pasta in the past and if they didn't dominate they would be out quickly in the playoffs. If they can get the top 2 lines playing well and carry that into the playoffs along with a hot Swayman, they have as good of a shot as any to come out of the East.

I agree that having two lines carrying play is the recipe for success and Hall and Pasta's chemistry is a huge positive outcome for this team, but I'm extremely concerned about the second line's performance. They've had some really good results (61.90 GF%) but there has been some really good fortune there. their PDO is 1.031 and likely due for a regression. Their xG% is only 51.65% Right now we are getting 61% GF from the Bergeron line and the Haula line and it shows in the teams 115+ point pace since Jan 1, but while Bergeron's performance is supported by the underlying numbers, the Haula line's numbers are not. I think we need to address that position sooner rather than later to try to create a more sustainable version of what they have seen the last two months. I'm worried that they will regress.

Myt1 · Mar 2, 2022

cshea said:
I don't think he's really playing better or worse than before, he just has the hockey gods smiling on him. 37% shooting percentage over the 5 game heater.

He’s been forechecking like that guy at the Y who can’t throw a baseball three feet or hit a wide open layup, but plays defense in your fucking shorts for two hours. I’ve been less impressed with some of his goals (Quick was a fucking sieve the other night) than his overall change in effort. Way more aggressive on the forecheck, and loves taking space right now, including on the opposite wing.

He’s a bit of a front-runner, so it’s not shocking that the increased effort seems to have coincided with the elevation and hot shooting streak. But still, it’s hard to see how you get value for that guy at this point, unless he’s a part of a swing for the fences. Which of the other “talented guy who needs a change of scenery maybe” trade targets people were thinking about previously are out there playing as well and hard as he is?

Over Guapo Grande · Mar 2, 2022

Myt1 said:
He’s been forechecking like that guy at the Y who can’t throw a baseball three feet or hit a wide open layup, but plays defense in your fucking shorts for two hours. I’ve been less impressed with some of his goals (Quick was a fucking sieve the other night) than his overall change in effort. Way more aggressive on the forecheck, and loves taking space right now, including on the opposite wing.

This is a nice lead-in to a question that I have been kicking around in my head for a few weeks, and not really quite sure how to phrase it. Does playing with Marchand and Bergeron have a sort of osmosis/trickle-down effect? The RW knows he needs to put in the 200 foot effort playing with those guys... I still don't know if I am phrasing it well, which is why I have held off on asking.

joe dokes · Mar 2, 2022

Over Guapo Grande said:
This is a nice lead-in to a question that I have been kicking around in my head for a few weeks, and not really quite sure how to phrase it. Does playing with Marchand and Bergeron have a sort of osmosis/trickle-down effect? The RW knows he needs to put in the 200 foot effort playing with those guys... I still don't know if I am phrasing it well, which is why I have held off on asking.

I think its a fair question. Hockey rooms are weird. My from-the-couch sense of the Bruins is that they'd rather have the coach be mad at them than have Bergeron be mad at them.

Myt1 · Mar 2, 2022

Over Guapo Grande said:
This is a nice lead-in to a question that I have been kicking around in my head for a few weeks, and not really quite sure how to phrase it. Does playing with Marchand and Bergeron have a sort of osmosis/trickle-down effect? The RW knows he needs to put in the 200 foot effort playing with those guys... I still don't know if I am phrasing it well, which is why I have held off on asking.

My guess is probably yes, but it’s noisy and immeasurable.

The benefit probably exists in two ways:

1. Nobody wants to be seen as the one guy fake carrying the couch. Hardworking leaders can inspire others to do the same. Extreme example alert: it’s tough for me to see Marchand growing into the best all around left wing and the game and legitimate top 10 Selke candidate and just maybe outside shot HoFer without having been Bergeron’s line partner. He’s a guy who had to claw and scratch for every inch in his career, though, and the divergence of how he reacted to that vs. how a Seguin did might owe some fair amount to their different paths to the league.

2. Opportunities for effort plays probably increase when playing with those guys, and the likelihood of tangible success in terms of goals scored in response may be higher. When all three forwards are buzzing, there’s no easy play to make. Marchand does his contact/get under people thing to steal the puck in the corner, Bergeron does Bergeron stuff, and DeBrusk does that thing where he can move almost as fast as the puck over a short distance, playing the first puck carrier and then following the puck with no interruption in momentum to the receiver of the pass. There’s more low-hanging fruit to pluck when you’re all playing like that, because hockey players are smart and reasonably good at finding the weak link, the easy play. Throw McAvoy in with them, and there’s an almost silly multiplier effect. And that pressure and those turnovers lead to easier goals and also contribute to keeping the other team off the board by hindering their breakouts.

Over Guapo Grande · Mar 2, 2022

Thanks for the responses. I had originally started kicking it around in my head thinking about Pasta-- he's certainly no Selke candidate, but he also isn't "Ovie controller unplugged" either. I've noticed a ton of backcheck/effort plays from him... and started to get the same sense from JDB (granted, just from highlights). I am glad you all could understand/translate OGGese

burstnbloom · Mar 2, 2022

Over Guapo Grande said:
This is a nice lead-in to a question that I have been kicking around in my head for a few weeks, and not really quite sure how to phrase it. Does playing with Marchand and Bergeron have a sort of osmosis/trickle-down effect? The RW knows he needs to put in the 200 foot effort playing with those guys... I still don't know if I am phrasing it well, which is why I have held off on asking.

Cassidy spoke to that when they made the move. It sounds like Bergeron and Marchand demand as much from their RW. They won't tolerate a lazy linemate. Jake is certainly doing those things with them. His good play has been more than just this week though. I'm with @Myt1 its not really the goals, its the consistency. That said, I do think people's opinions of jakes effort level have been largely colored by the narrative around him the last 12 months. He's always kinda been the guy that has moments of explosion rather than consistent impact. How many times have we bitched about him and Krejci being inconsistent. the numbers say Jake has been a slightly above average player this year, regardless of line mates. I think with more favorable deployment he would be having a really good year. Right now I'd call it solid, which I'll take after the 3% shooting season and subsequent benchings we got last year

Regarding the opportunity to score with his current linemates, Bergeron and Marchand are simply the greatest puck possession duo in hockey. When your line always has the puck, you're going to get a lot of opportunity. It's how guys like Brett Connolly found success playing with them. If you skate with them , you'll get more opportunities than you ever have before.

joe dokes · Mar 2, 2022

Over Guapo Grande said:
Thanks for the responses. I had originally started kicking it around in my head thinking about Pasta-- he's certainly no Selke candidate, but he also isn't "Ovie controller unplugged" either. I've noticed a ton of backcheck/effort plays from him... and started to get the same sense from JDB (granted, just from highlights). I am glad you all could understand/translate OGGese

Pasta made those efforts regularly (not as much as now) when he first came up. But he looked like he weighed under 175 pounds. I never hd much doubt that the same effort in a bigger Pasta would yield great results.

veritas · Mar 2, 2022

cshea said:
I think when Jake (or anyone) plays with Marchand and Bergeron he also doesn't have to worry as much about playing both ends. Regardless of RW, that line will always be deployed in offensive situations. They're so good they spend two thirds of their time on ice with the puck (in Jake's case, they have it over 70% of the time in a small sample). He basically doesn't have to worry about defending because they never have to do it. He's free'd up to be more aggressive on the forecheck because he's got two Selke calibur players (and typically McAvoy too) to cover him if he over commits or takes himself out of position. When he's out on a lesser line they're more likely to be deployed defensively and thus he has to do more defending which inevitably leads him to making a mistake and getting into the doghouse.

This is a really good point. "Defense" isn't a singular skill, forechecking is very different than playing defense in the other two zones, and while there's obviously going to be some correlation, some players are much better at one than the other. I would say Pasta is an extreme example of this, arguably great defensively in the offensive zone, but really struggles in his own end at times. Which is probably a big reason Cassidy kept him with Bergeron so steadfastly. And it's not just being put in forechecking situations more, it's being in those situations when the other team is under incredible pressure from two of the best defensive players in the league. Not anyone can play that role, but players with solid anticipation and quickness are going to have a lot of opportunities to make plays on the forecheck. DeBrusk seems to similarly benefit from that type of role, as did players like Danton Heinen and Reilly Smith.

But like we saw with those players, I don't think having success in that role is going to fool any teams into overvaluing DeBrusk.

burstnbloom · Mar 2, 2022

veritas said:
This is a really good point. "Defense" isn't a singular skill, forechecking is very different than playing defense in the other two zones, and while there's obviously going to be some correlation, some players are much better at one than the other. I would say Pasta is an extreme example of this, arguably great defensively in the offensive zone, but really struggles in his own end at times. Which is probably a big reason Cassidy kept him with Bergeron so steadfastly. And it's not just being put in forechecking situations more, it's being in those situations when the other team is under incredible pressure from two of the best defensive players in the league. Not anyone can play that role, but players with solid anticipation and quickness are going to have a lot of opportunities to make plays on the forecheck. DeBrusk seems to similarly benefit from that type of role, as did players like Danton Heinen and Reilly Smith.

But like we saw with those players, I don't think having success in that role is going to fool any teams into overvaluing DeBrusk.

To the bolded, I think the problem is that the Bruins have done a piss poor job at managing the asset that is Jake Debrusk by letting a narrative develop and not pushing back on it.

Jake Debrusk is 37th in the NHL among LW in ES G/60 for players who have 500 or more minutes. More than Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, Brady Tkachuk etc. He's 42nd in P/60. He's a way better player than the world thinks he is and that makes it really unfortunate that he wants out. Most of his lack of production last year was due to deployment and s% (which has corrected this year). They will get pennies for him and he will likely be "the old jake" on that team. He's kinda the old Jake right now.

Myt1 · Mar 2, 2022

He didn’t do himself any favors, though. And though his teammates have been good about him publicly, it’s very easy to read between the lines that they think he’s a very different player when engaged. And that’s probably about what they perceive as his effort and fitness, which are components of the results you’re describing, not contradicted by them, rather than some narrative.

The league has the same/better access to the stats and tape that we do.

So, either he’s suffered the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune and narrative at the hands of some shadowy cabal and mismanagement, or everyone has a pretty good idea what he is—an extremely inconsistent player whose effort and engagement visibly lack at times—and a smart team should be incentivized to pick him up for at least three quarters on the dollar.

kenneycb · Mar 2, 2022

burstnbloom said:
To the bolded, I think the problem is that the Bruins have done a piss poor job at managing the asset that is Jake Debrusk by letting a narrative develop and not pushing back on it.

Jake Debrusk is 37th in the NHL among LW in ES G/60 for players who have 500 or more minutes. More than Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, Brady Tkachuk etc. He's 42nd in P/60. He's a way better player than the world thinks he is and that makes it really unfortunate that he wants out. Most of his lack of production last year was due to deployment and s% (which has corrected this year). They will get pennies for him and he will likely be "the old jake" on that team. He's kinda the old Jake right now.

The narrative is he's streaky and sucks when he's on the down part of the streak. Below are his 5 game splits which either bears that out or points to an average player who's on a heater once he got paired with one of the best twosomes in the league. Pointing to rate stats for a streaky player isn't a great way to measure his production IMO. Sure he's the old Jake now but he was the "new" Jake for the 5 games prior. Which Jake is he going to be next week?

Last 5 games - 7g, 2a
Previous 5 games - 0g, 0a
Previous 5 games - 1g, 1a
Previous 5 games - 1g, 2a
Previous 5 games - 0g, 2a
Previous 5 games - 2g, 0a
Previous 5 games - 0g, 2a

Total: 35 games -11g (64% in the last 5 games), 9a (22% in last 5 games)

Over Guapo Grande · Mar 2, 2022

I am glad that I could add some extra discussion to this forum. Usually my questions are more of:

What is CORSI? Wasn't that a member with an odd scarf fixation?

burstnbloom · Mar 2, 2022

kenneycb said:
The narrative is he's streaky and sucks when he's on the down part of the streak.

I appreciate the context but it doesn't really mean all that much without contextualizing similar players, no? In general middle 6 20 goal wingers are streaky. Jake certainly doesn't stand out in that regard. Ask Craig Smith. It's the second part of your first line that is what I'm talking about. That doesn't bear out in the numbers. If you look at Jake's career on NST, there's obviously a bit of good fortune his first couple ears that have turned the entire way around the last two years. Has he played a role in that? Sure, but his end results haven't matched his underlying numbers by any stretch. 46% GF on 53% xGF is a player ripe for positive regression and we've seen some of that in the last couple of weeks. His deployment has also seen a pretty big shift. But other than looking at his "body language" there isn't much evidence that he's hurting the team when he's not scoring other than the narrative, which is fueled by Cassidy's comments, shifting of his deployment and the public using anecdotes to back up the narrative. That's what I'm talking about.

Rate stats have their limits, but they are what they are. All of the models have Jake as a pretty good player, and that is not how he's perceived. It's unfortunate that they have let the narrative fester because he's a pretty valuable asset that they will sell for peanuts.

EH:

Jfresh- top down

Dom

durandal1707 · Mar 2, 2022

Over Guapo Grande said:
I am glad that I could add some extra discussion to this forum. Usually my questions are more of:

What is CORSI? Wasn't that a member with an odd scarf fixation?

Corsi = attempted shots, basically. Includes missed and blocked shots. Fenwick is similar but excludes blocked shots. As for where the name comes from, this is what's on Wikipedia:

The Corsi number was named by Tim Barnes, a financial analyst from Chicago working under the pseudonym Vic Ferrari. He had heard former Buffalo Sabres general manager Darcy Regier talking about shot differential on the radio, and then proceeded to develop a formula to accurately display shot differential. Ferrari originally wanted to name it the Regier number, but he didn't think it sounded right. He then considered calling it the Ruff number after former Buffalo Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff but he didn't think that was appropriate either. Ferrari ended up searching Buffalo Sabres staff, found a picture of Jim Corsi, and chose his name because he liked Corsi's mustache.[1]

kenneycb · Mar 3, 2022

burstnbloom said:
I appreciate the context but it doesn't really mean all that much without contextualizing similar players, no? In general middle 6 20 goal wingers are streaky. Jake certainly doesn't stand out in that regard. Ask Craig Smith. It's the second part of your first line that is what I'm talking about. That doesn't bear out in the numbers. If you look at Jake's career on NST, there's obviously a bit of good fortune his first couple ears that have turned the entire way around the last two years. Has he played a role in that? Sure, but his end results haven't matched his underlying numbers by any stretch. 46% GF on 53% xGF is a player ripe for positive regression and we've seen some of that in the last couple of weeks. His deployment has also seen a pretty big shift. But other than looking at his "body language" there isn't much evidence that he's hurting the team when he's not scoring other than the narrative, which is fueled by Cassidy's comments, shifting of his deployment and the public using anecdotes to back up the narrative. That's what I'm talking about.

View attachment 49846

Rate stats have their limits, but they are what they are. All of the models have Jake as a pretty good player, and that is not how he's perceived. It's unfortunate that they have let the narrative fester because he's a pretty valuable asset that they will sell for peanuts.

EH:
View attachment 49847

Jfresh- top down
View attachment 49848

Dom

View attachment 49849

The issue again is these are all in one numbers and don't address the narrative that he is a high variance, streaky player game-to-game.

For a quick and dirty analysis, I looked at the average Corsi and Fenwick of a bunch of different B's players for the current season and the standard variance game to game. Plenty of holes in teh analysis but, again, quick and dirty and gets us in the ballpark. The Corsi and Fenwick numbers were basically both the same outside of tenths of a percentage point so I'm just showing Corsi. It shows he's a fine, middle 6 player whose game to game performance varies a good deal more than the people he plays with. I don't love to see the same variance from Smith but he has a much higher baseline to work with than Debrusk so his suck is much less.

Player | Avg. Game Corsi | Stdev
Bergeron | 65% | 11%
Pastrnak | 64% | 8%
Hall | 60% | 13%
Smith | 58% | 15%
Debrusk | 53% | 16%
Coyle | 51% | 12%
Haula | 48% | 14%
Nosek | 43% | 14%
Lazar | 42% | 17%

burstnbloom · Mar 3, 2022

kenneycb said:
The issue again is these are all in one numbers and don't address the narrative that he is a high variance, streaky player game-to-game.

For a quick and dirty analysis, I looked at the average Corsi and Fenwick of a bunch of different B's players for the current season and the standard variance game to game. Plenty of holes in teh analysis but, again, quick and dirty and gets us in the ballpark. The Corsi and Fenwick numbers were basically both the same outside of tenths of a percentage point so I'm just showing Corsi. It shows he's a fine, middle 6 player whose game to game performance varies a good deal more than the people he plays with. I don't love to see the same variance from Smith but he has a much higher baseline to work with than Debrusk so his suck is much less.

Player | Avg. Game Corsi | Stdev
Bergeron | 65% | 11%
Pastrnak | 64% | 8%
Hall | 60% | 13%
Smith | 58% | 15%
Debrusk | 53% | 16%
Coyle | 51% | 12%
Haula | 48% | 14%
Nosek | 43% | 14%
Lazar | 42% | 17%

Again, his streakiness isn't what I took issue with and I think I've been clear about that. I'm not arguing with you about that. I actually think you just proved my point. Middle six wingers are streaky, not just Jake. It's the narrative that he is disproportionate likely to hurt the team when he's not scoring, which you had said in your post first addressing me . That's what doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

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