That hasn't been proven out at all as nobody has disintermediated his stats to say how much his hot streaks prop up his numbers vs. his cold streaks bring down his numbers
2021-2022 Bruins Season Thread
- Thread starter cshea
- Start date
I see a lot of game logs in your future.
Edit - I took last season and this season up to the beginning of February. I'm not breaking down individual games to prove my point, but you'd have a lot of work, and likely a lot of dubious parsing of samples, to prove this guy is "bad" when not scoring 7 goals in two weeks.
xG% 51.32
SCF% 53.86
HDCF% 54.17
PDO .955
Last edited:
We all agree DeBrusk’s offense is streaky but the problem Cassidy sees is that when DeBrusk cools off he leaves the rest of his game in the dressing room.
Cassidy in March 2021 after scratching DeBrusk: “I still feel he’s been given ice time to perform to the best of his ability. We just feel that we’re not getting the effort required. It’s not always about the scoresheet, it’s about being one of 20 guys helping you win.”
Cassidy in November 2021 after scratching DeBrusk: “Any 20-goal scorer still only scores once every four games if they’re playing every game, more or less, so you still need the other things. A little bit more of an ask there on second effort away from the puck, working to keep it out of your net, etc. We understand certain guys can be physical when they’re not scoring or bringing something, and for him, it’s foot speed, and I’d like to see that every night.”
Right, the common refrain is that when he’s not scoring he needs to impact the game in other ways. Cassidy has said it over and over. Jake’s contention is that he is unfairly singled out. Why does Cassidy air this out in public about Jake, and stay mum about, say, Craig Smith who is also streaky and done next to nothing offensively this year?
Forbort did have the 2nd highest xGF% on the team last night! 83.76% behind only Bergeron who is a God.
Right. Because Cassidy is known for never ever publicly airing displeasure with anyone on the team other than Jake DeBrusk. He’s downright reticent about that. Certainly didn’t say anything about Swayman before the current hot streak.
Speaking of DeBrusk and shooting percentage, when a player tips a shot from the point and it goes in, I assume that’s a shot for the tipper and a goal for him. But what if the player tips it and it is blocked or saved? Do they even count those as shots for the tipper?
Studnicka is up. Not sure if someone got hurt last night. Bergy did take the day off on Monday but played the whole game last night. I wouldn't be against some load management with 22 games remaining. Also, I suppose we can't rule out a showcase at this time of year.
View: https://twitter.com/NHLBruins/status/1504155548337463297?s=20&t=fRHxBTnQX7VNT9BFekKI5w
View: https://twitter.com/NHLBruins/status/1504155548337463297?s=20&t=fRHxBTnQX7VNT9BFekKI5w
We also can’t rule out the imminent trade of a forward that’s currently on the roster.
Bergeron out at least 2 games with an infection in his arm
View: https://twitter.com/FlutoShinzawa/status/1504219287644356610
View: https://twitter.com/FlutoShinzawa/status/1504219287644356610
Oh, whoa. As someone who almost died from MRSA, that's scary. Hope they recognized it and got it under control in time to keep it from being a real pain.
Now that his season is over, what are the chances that David Krejci ends up back in Boston? 10%? 20%?
I’d say about 1%. He has given no indication that he wants to move back to the US for 2-4 months. Even if he did, someone would probably claim him to keep him away from Boston.
I saw something like that on Twitter, where the B's would have to make a deal with a team that was going to claim him and that's what got me thinking. One percent is really low though, I was hoping that he'd find his way back here.
I think the chances he returns for next year are greater than 50% but this year it's unlikely. He'd have to get through waives and even if he does the "I won't show up if someone claims me" there's incentive for other teams to claim him just to keep him from Boston.
Any chance that a Krejci contract could include a poison pill clause? Something like a $5M movement bonus paid immediately by the team he is "moved" to.
No team in LTIR could claim him so all they'd need to do is make a day 1 signing bonus so it lands on the cap. The Rangers could claim him for sure or one of the 14 teams not in LTIR that aren't in the playoff hunt. It would be very challenging to navigate but might be worth a shot.
They closed that loophole, he'd have to go through waivers again to trade him.
Yeah, they'd have to have their own cap space free to fit him in which would impact what they do at the deadline.
I think it's a longshot.
I think it's a longshot.
I have seen nothing to indicate that Krejci is interested in coming back to the Bruins. In fact, I seem to remember a quote from him back when Pasta and Hall first got paired with Haula that seemed to indicate that he was pretty annoyed that he never got that chance last season ( I will see if I can find it tonight), and it made me wonder about his relationship with the coach/management.
I am not getting my hopes up for him rejoining them.
I am not getting my hopes up for him rejoining them.
“Coach Cassidy rarely let the two of us play together,” Krejci told Horák (via Google Translate). “It had to be so that he split the first line and put Pasta to me. It was a maximum of two (games). Years later, I leave Boston and suddenly it is possible. That struck me. (Cassidy) always told me that there was no reason to take Pasta off the first line and that it would be as short as possible to distribute the forces. I had to take it. But now Pasta has five or so many (games) on the line with Taylor Hall and Erik Haula. Strange.”
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2022/01/09/david-krejci-has-some-candid-thoughts-on-bostons-top-6-reshuffle-bruins-shouldnt-waste-time-with-kane-klingberg
https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2022/01/09/david-krejci-has-some-candid-thoughts-on-bostons-top-6-reshuffle-bruins-shouldnt-waste-time-with-kane-klingberg
I’m only guessing, but I bet Cassidy viewed Krejci as someone who could elevate the play of the players on his wings, that in that scenario he would add more value to those two players than moving Pasta to his line and putting someone else on the top line. Haula obviously isn’t nearly the player, so moving Pasta “down” adds more value to that line that taking him off the first
Here's where we are with 19 games left.
Marchand - Bergeron - DeBrusk
Hall - Haula - Pastrnak
Frederic - Coyle - Smith
Foligno - Nosek - Lazar
Lindholm - McAvoy
Grzelyck - Carlo
Forbort - Reilly
Clifton - Brown
Swayman
Ullmark
The aim for the rest of the season:
- Figure out where Lindholm fits best. I think the assumption is he'll go with McAvoy, but it's worth moving him around a bit. Close and late they could go with Grz/McAvoy when down a goal and Lindholm/Carlo when protecting a lead.
- Figure out the playoff 3rd pair. Someone from the Forbort/Reilly/Clifton trio will need to sit. I'd sit Forbort. They'll probably sit Clifton.
- I would tinker with the middle six. Hall - Haula - Pastrnak has been OK, but it could probably be better. The 3rd line is living on borrowed time. Frederic - Coyle - Smith are outscoring teams 12-2 when they are on the ice but that's against a 46% xGF%. They have like a 118 PDO so the roof will fall in at some point. I would try a few things over the remaining 19 games. Maybe bump Coyle up to the 2nd line for a look, maybe try Studnicka up there and Haula in Frederic's spot. Things like that.
- Work in the depth guys to keep them ready in case they are needed. Josh Brown, Jack Ahcan, Anton Blidh, maybe Oskar Steen.
Marchand - Bergeron - DeBrusk
Hall - Haula - Pastrnak
Frederic - Coyle - Smith
Foligno - Nosek - Lazar
Lindholm - McAvoy
Grzelyck - Carlo
Forbort - Reilly
Clifton - Brown
Swayman
Ullmark
The aim for the rest of the season:
- Figure out where Lindholm fits best. I think the assumption is he'll go with McAvoy, but it's worth moving him around a bit. Close and late they could go with Grz/McAvoy when down a goal and Lindholm/Carlo when protecting a lead.
- Figure out the playoff 3rd pair. Someone from the Forbort/Reilly/Clifton trio will need to sit. I'd sit Forbort. They'll probably sit Clifton.
- I would tinker with the middle six. Hall - Haula - Pastrnak has been OK, but it could probably be better. The 3rd line is living on borrowed time. Frederic - Coyle - Smith are outscoring teams 12-2 when they are on the ice but that's against a 46% xGF%. They have like a 118 PDO so the roof will fall in at some point. I would try a few things over the remaining 19 games. Maybe bump Coyle up to the 2nd line for a look, maybe try Studnicka up there and Haula in Frederic's spot. Things like that.
- Work in the depth guys to keep them ready in case they are needed. Josh Brown, Jack Ahcan, Anton Blidh, maybe Oskar Steen.
Anyone else terrified they play Forbort and Brown as a pair? because I am.
I would go:
Gryz-Mac
Lindholm-Carlo
Reilly-Clifton
and try to get the second pair in the toughest assignments. If you free up the first pair to attack, they will eat everyone's lunch. Charlie dominates an insanely hard QOC, I'd love to see them use him in a different way.
I think what they will do is:
Hammer (making it stick) - Chuck
Gryz - Carlo
Forbort- Reilly
Which is admittedly still good, except forbort.
I would go:
Gryz-Mac
Lindholm-Carlo
Reilly-Clifton
and try to get the second pair in the toughest assignments. If you free up the first pair to attack, they will eat everyone's lunch. Charlie dominates an insanely hard QOC, I'd love to see them use him in a different way.
I think what they will do is:
Hammer (making it stick) - Chuck
Gryz - Carlo
Forbort- Reilly
Which is admittedly still good, except forbort.
What concerns me most going into the playoffs is the B’s physical play/toughness or lack thereof.
They’ve had issues the past few playoffs with this and can expect opponents to exploit that area.
As they move forward Cassidy needs to balance this within the lineups. Outside of Foligno/Frederic/Forbort they don’t have much else.
They’ve had issues the past few playoffs with this and can expect opponents to exploit that area.
As they move forward Cassidy needs to balance this within the lineups. Outside of Foligno/Frederic/Forbort they don’t have much else.
When has toughness cost them a series? They dominated the big bad Capitals last year. They skated circles around the gritty, Clutterbucking Islanders and were done in by poor finishing.
It can be argued they lost to STL because they got worn down leading up to the SCF - and then STL bullied them into submission.
Boston was 11-8-0 on Nov 30. Since then, they've gone 28-11-5. Pretty good. Their last 15 games they've gone 12-2-1.
And got to Game 7 of a SCF, to boot.
And last year, they probably lost because their goalie was playing on one leg, to rapidly diminishing returns.
I’m in the camp of high skill/hockey IQ trumps the modern day equivalent of Lunch Pail AC hockey any day of the week, but that’s me.
And last year, they probably lost because their goalie was playing on one leg, to rapidly diminishing returns.
I’m in the camp of high skill/hockey IQ trumps the modern day equivalent of Lunch Pail AC hockey any day of the week, but that’s me.
DeBrusk was concussed by Kadri in the first round and hasn't looked the same as a player since. Noel Acciari had his sternum broken by Columbus (that series was incredibly physical).
Don't mistake this as me saying I want the Bruins to sacrifice skill for toughness, I was just answering the question on when the Bruins lost a series due to it.
They lost against St. Louis because they couldn’t finish the 3/4 great chances that they had in a first period of game 7. And the only reason they were even in game 7 was because the refs/league office let Craig Berube get in their collective heads. In a properly officiated series, the Bruins win it in 5 games. It had nothing to do with toughness.
In a vacuum, do I like having tough guys on the team? Sure. But the only problem is, when you add toughness, that usually comes at the expense of actual hockey skill.
We need more guys that can finish around the net, not more guys that handle the puck like a grenade and can’t get the puck on net, but are good at making the glass rattle as the pucks being moved out of the zone.
In a vacuum, do I like having tough guys on the team? Sure. But the only problem is, when you add toughness, that usually comes at the expense of actual hockey skill.
We need more guys that can finish around the net, not more guys that handle the puck like a grenade and can’t get the puck on net, but are good at making the glass rattle as the pucks being moved out of the zone.
No I hear you, I was honestly trying to think it through. The Columbus series was pretty physical but they acquitted themselves well, and cheap shots from Kadri in the playoffs aren't really preventable no matter what team you have on the ice.
I'll still never understand how they lost that Blues series.
The big and tough guys usually stink at actually playing hockey. The Bruins added one of these yesterday, Josh Brown.
The Bruins still value size but size doesn't necessarily come with toughness.
The Bruins still value size but size doesn't necessarily come with toughness.
It's not an either/or. Tampa is an example of a team that has had success with a mix of heavy / skilled bottom six.
At least Brown replaces a forward who was basically unplayable regular season or playoffs. And having such a player as your 9th defenseman makes some sense.
The toughness narrative is kind of a myth. Yes Tampa is big and physical but there is no correlation between physicality and success in the recent nhl. You could make an argument that St. Louis won bc of physicality but they won mostly because of the serendipity of good fortune. Go back and look at all the fortuitous breaks they got on the way to the finals. Against the bruins they won because of a mixture of puck luck, an injury to gryz at an in opportune time and a serious lack of finish by the bruins. Sometimes shit happens. Outside of them, every other cup winner in recent memory absolutely dominated possession. The bolts had three lines with more than 55% xG the last two playoffs. That’s how they win and that’s how teams win.
Unfortunately, the bruins don’t have that either. If they lose this will be the reason (or goaltending) but the ability to be tough doesn’t really correlate to success. Some of the toughest teams in this league absolutely suck.
Unfortunately, the bruins don’t have that either. If they lose this will be the reason (or goaltending) but the ability to be tough doesn’t really correlate to success. Some of the toughest teams in this league absolutely suck.
Something can be a weakness even if it’s not the primary attribute of recent cup winning teams.
In baseball, infield defense can be a weakness, even if teams with the best infield defense are some of the worst in the league.
The narrative of defining every criticism as a narrative in an effort to undermine the position by implying that it reflects a popular misconception that doesn’t reflect reality merely because it doesn’t show up in the statistics not intended to assess it is pretty silly.
It’s not a “narrative” and it’s not a myth. Absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence.
In baseball, infield defense can be a weakness, even if teams with the best infield defense are some of the worst in the league.
The narrative of defining every criticism as a narrative in an effort to undermine the position by implying that it reflects a popular misconception that doesn’t reflect reality merely because it doesn’t show up in the statistics not intended to assess it is pretty silly.
It’s not a “narrative” and it’s not a myth. Absence of evidence isn’t evidence of absence.
Bruins are 3rd in the league in 5v5 xG...sitting at 56%. I realize the first line is the reason for that but they're realistically got two other groups of players who are above average. They may lose as early as the first round but they're not going to lose because they don't create more chances.
An illegal check to the head. Which happens around the league no matter tough guys you have on the roster.
By the NHL's supremely flawed and dumb stat, the Bruins are 3rd in hits per 60 and 4th in total hits.
I don't know how you quantify this. Yes, they have some smaller players like Grzelyck that they feel can get exposed by bigger forwards on the forecheck. They've tried to address this by augmenting the defense with bigger dudes like Forbort and Lindholm. The forward group is a pretty good blend of skill, size and toughness in my opinion.
I don't know how you quantify this. Yes, they have some smaller players like Grzelyck that they feel can get exposed by bigger forwards on the forecheck. They've tried to address this by augmenting the defense with bigger dudes like Forbort and Lindholm. The forward group is a pretty good blend of skill, size and toughness in my opinion.
Nothing and I'm not advocating that they should have done anything. But citing a player getting hurt on a physical play by a player who was on the Blues for his physical presence while saying the Blues physical play had little to do with them winning is not a good argument.
First practice post-deadline. Bergy is back in his normal spot. Lindholm is with McAvoy. Reilly/Clifton splitting time with Forbort on the 3rd pair.
Marchand - Bergeron - DeBrusk
Hall - Haula - Pastrnak
Frederic - Coyle - Smith
Foligno - Nosek - Lazar
Blidh - Studnicka - McLaughlin
Lindholm - McAvoy
Grzelyck - Carlo
Forbort - Reilly/Clifton
Swayman
Ullmark
This is probably close to the game 1 lineup, assuming health. I'd like to see more tinkering to see if they can find better combos. The 3rd line worries me, the actual results have been excellent but the underlyings not so good. I'd be hesitent to keep them together and just hope the hockey gods keep smiling on them.
It's a beaten bush but any scenario where Reilly is the odd man out over Forbort and Clifton is a bad one for the Bruins.
Marchand - Bergeron - DeBrusk
Hall - Haula - Pastrnak
Frederic - Coyle - Smith
Foligno - Nosek - Lazar
Blidh - Studnicka - McLaughlin
Lindholm - McAvoy
Grzelyck - Carlo
Forbort - Reilly/Clifton
Swayman
Ullmark
This is probably close to the game 1 lineup, assuming health. I'd like to see more tinkering to see if they can find better combos. The 3rd line worries me, the actual results have been excellent but the underlyings not so good. I'd be hesitent to keep them together and just hope the hockey gods keep smiling on them.
It's a beaten bush but any scenario where Reilly is the odd man out over Forbort and Clifton is a bad one for the Bruins.