They won pretty comfortably when it counted. “Letdown” is doing a fucktonne of work in this thread.
2023-24 Celtics
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Yeah, the idea that any NBA team is going to be locked in for the full 48 minutes 82 times a season is a pipe dream.
At this point in the season I'm more interested in inputs to success than I am in outputs. Not that I'm uninterested in the wins (this is sports, it's supposed to be fun), but looking ahead to playoffs and team cohesion, we should be looking at factors that can be sustained and ones that can't.
And what I'm wondering is, what the hell happened to our 3 point defense last night? We've had teams shoot the lights out on us, but at least we were contesting those shots. Last night Brooklyn had an absolutely obscene number of wide open 3s, as our perimeter players either failed to rotate or were positioned well inside the line and never closed. It was downright fodder for Exasperated Guy at times. That's what led Brooklyn to shoot themselves back into the game in the late 1st and then the 3rd. 70-58 at half became 72-69 in a hurry after 3 largely undefended 3s to start the 3rd.
You can say "hey we weren't giving full effort last night" and if so, fine. But part of it looked like a tactical choice, not just laziness. And if so, that's concerning, because I'm much more worried about open 3s than I am about interior help D, especially after the Miami series last spring.
Outside of the beginning of the third, I thought that the Nets hit a ton of tough contested off the dribble threes last night, and Cam Thomas hit a bunch of contested middies.
The Celtics defensive effort wasn’t great through the first three quarters, but they brought it when they needed to.
The Celtics defensive effort wasn’t great through the first three quarters, but they brought it when they needed to.
White was out. We played a different starting lineup with two bigs against a team that used basically no bigs and wanted to shoot. Open looks were inevitable.
The only thing tactical about last night was the Whites having a baby in November instead of early June.
If anything maybe that would have been a good situation to try out the zone wrinkle.
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Ah gotcha my bad. Over 82 games there are over a dozen of these type spots even for the best teams. I felt we handled this one extremely well but we will lose others for sure. 82-0 not in the cards I'm afraid.
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I went to the game last night, and it seemed clear that Mazz was going to use the game to experiment with lineups. The starters were destroying everything, so the deeper bench got what felt like some extra run. At no point did it feel like the game was in doubt, even when the Nets got close. The Nets are a solid team, and they had absolutely no chance against this offense.
Jrue in person is a revelation. He’s always where he needs to be and finds his shot when they need a bucket. Him and KP are perfect fits around the Js.
Jrue in person is a revelation. He’s always where he needs to be and finds his shot when they need a bucket. Him and KP are perfect fits around the Js.
For the talk of letdown, the Nets still only shot 32.7% on 3s and the Cs led for the final 32 minutes of the game. Defense definitely seemed to intentionally go under screens with the Nets going 5 out and drawing the bigs to the perimeter. A few too many loose handle turnovers but that’s the cost of doing business with the Jays. And unlike years past, instead of trying to bomb away from 3 to stop the bleeding and ending up in a close variance game, Holiday/Tatum/KP just destroyed the Nets in the post any time the score got close until Tatum channeled IT4 late. It’s going to take time for this team to reach it’s peak and they’re already learning lessons IMO.
Yeah, I don't understand a lot of the defense posts. Cs went two bigs against a 5 out defense. They held BRK to 43% shooting and 32.7% on 3Ps. In addition, most of the dribble penetration occurred when Al was off the floor (which is why he was +29) so when Hauser, PP, Kornet and/or KP are on the floor trying to guard Thomas, Bridges, or Dinwiddie, yes some dribble penetration (and open 3P looks) are to be expected.
The interesting thing to me is that JMazz never went small to counter BRK going small.
Here is where adv stats may be misleading.
The vast majority of TT & Theis GP/minutes have been against opposing starting/2nd string Centers. TT wasn't great here so not surprised his DARKO DPM was negative.
Over 7 seasons, Luke has vacillated between G-League player and bench Center. When the Knicks tried to use him in the rotation it wasn't great.
Luke's uptick in DARKO has mostly been during meaningless garbage time/games.
It doesn't mean he can't do it. Bench Centers take a while to develop. BUT we need to see consistent minutes of him with the TOP6 to see if he can add value or hold his own against rotational players.
I think the bigs did fine contesting 3s at the end of the game. It's not that easy to find the right depth to play drop, given even half a step is going to make a difference in your ability to contest/get blown by.
I'm a little concerned about the Celtics being out FGA'd by 3.5 per 100 (same FTAs) in spite of having an Oreb%+Dreb% of 106.3. Some of that is mitigated by their block differential (~+2 per 100). The major cause here is their failure to generate turnovers.
Now obviously some teams play defense differently and prioritize generating turnovers because their half court offense stinks. And just as obviously generating turnovers doesn't mean your defense is good. But the Celtics are dead last in the league and quite far from the median (4 turnovers per 100!). I'm not sure what to make of it.
I'm a little concerned about the Celtics being out FGA'd by 3.5 per 100 (same FTAs) in spite of having an Oreb%+Dreb% of 106.3. Some of that is mitigated by their block differential (~+2 per 100). The major cause here is their failure to generate turnovers.
Now obviously some teams play defense differently and prioritize generating turnovers because their half court offense stinks. And just as obviously generating turnovers doesn't mean your defense is good. But the Celtics are dead last in the league and quite far from the median (4 turnovers per 100!). I'm not sure what to make of it.
Doesn’t this tend to be the case for most NBA role / bench players? And anecdotally it feels like it is more pronounced in the playoffs.
Accurate. Career 3p% at home:
Hauser - .440 (209 attempts)
Pritchard - .413 (305 attempts)
Career 3p% on the road:
Hauser - .394 (193 attempts)
Pritchard - .379 (359 attempts)
The Celtics have been pretty successful in road playoff games over the last couple of years, but if these two are the 7th and 8th men, this may be a good year to get better at home.
You make a good point that TT and DT were mostly facing better opposition due to their starter roles. I don't watch much of the NBA outside of Celtics games but it feels like even at their peak TT and DT were replacement level bigs at best. It's unclear to me how far Kornet is from replacement level. In any case, he is not going to be a starter on this team unless there are injuries to KP and Horford. Kornet seems fine to me as a third big but if a better option becomes available it may make sense to consider upgrading.
If a 10 point win down a starter on the road against a playoff team is a letdown then let me down I guess.
As a fellow Celtics skeptic last year, I thought last night's win looked a lot different from last season's losses. The starters came out, showed they could get a double digit lead within 4 or 5 minutes, and then the team cruised for the next three quarters. It felt pretty clear that if they were within a few baskets by the time the starters came out to close in the 4th they'd be fine. That's very different from, say, getting blown out from the start against the Thunder; or playing hard all game only to lose on the Smart-Tatum two man game.
Is this really any different than the large majority of role players on the road? Seems fairly standard to me.
No different, but considering these two derive a significant portion of their value from their ability to hit 3p shots (as opposed to Brogdon or Grant, who have more well rounded games), Hauser/Pritchard might have a greater overall variance for home and road playoff games than we're used to.
Just because, here's the home/road 3P% for the big 6:
Tatum: .373/.379
Brown: .356/.375
Holiday: .388/.344
Porzingis: .379/.340
White: .367/.342
Horford: .397/.349
Obviously, Kornet can’t create for himself and thus is heavily reliant on others to make plays for him, as Jrue and to a lesser extent Jaylen did for him last night. He also seemed to be rebounding with greater force, not just boxing out but aggressively corralling the basketball.
I don't expect any of the TOP6 to actively "create" for Luke Kornet
Maybe my bar is too low but if he can
1. set screens (without fouling)
2. play drop coverage/defend the rim at an average rate
3. rebound with force
He has the job...or until Brad finds someone better.
plus minus based statistics do attempt to correct for teammates and opponents. my personal opinion is the teammate correction is weak, since the correlation between minutes can be very strong. the opponent correction is easier I think because there are sufficient bench guy versus starter guy minutes to make the bench vs starter bias sufficiently mitigated.
I wonder if Mazz is going to abandon most two big sets, barring injury/load management to any of JT, JB, JH or DW, which means that KP and AH will cover all the minutes needed at the 5, short of garbage time.
This would mean that the only times we will see much of Kornet is when one of the top6 is out.
This would mean that the only times we will see much of Kornet is when one of the top6 is out.
I think that's the eventual plan, if only because Pritchard/Hauser are better than Kornet therefore they should get more playing time. Horford/KP have spent more time on the court together so far (53 minutes) than Kornet has played overall (40 minutes). I do think the team is comfortable with KP playing 30-35 mpg and Horford playing 20-25, which means plenty of time together each night, with no time for Kornet absent a blowout or foul trouble (assuming both are active).
I’m just saying that he seems much more suited to the job when he has someone like Jrue Holiday actively looking to make his job easier.
Double bigs and an undersized PG seems like a poor way to matchup with this Celtics team.
They beat Denver by 21 at home. Jaden Mcdaniels is an elite defensive player. As is Gobert. Obviously Edwards and Towns are elite offensive players. Mike Conley gets everyone in the right place. And they have Naz Reid and Kyle Anderson coming off the bench. They are legit.
They match up well with Denver. KAT can play Jokic and Goebert can roam off Gordon. Who is KAT or Rudy covering on the Celtics.
Kat and Rudy average a combined 64 mpg. I’m sure they will try their best to match their double big lineups with ours. They’ll need to win the Pritchard/Hauser minutes big. I’m not picking them but I’m not overlooking them either.
Yeah, I think the Celtics would be heavy favorites in a playoff series with Philly, but I can see the Sixers really really getting up for this one. They seem to have found some good stuff with Maxey's breakout.
And as said above, can't overlook Minnesota either. They're a very good team, and it might come down to whether the Celtics can make enough 3s to take advantage of the perimeter space you get against 2 bigs.
Legit 3-2 I guess.
MIN matches really well with DEN because they are big enough to give Jokic trouble. It will be interesting where they are going to try to play Gorbert. Assuming KAT plays KP, I wonder if they basically allow Gorbert to play a one-man zone and let him guard whoever is in the weakside corner? Will be an interesting chess game.
If anyone could get Cam Thomas to play defense correctly, Thomas would probably be all-NBA.
I agree, and Denver beat writers have commented that the best defensive schemes against Jokic have pretty consistently been when you have a 4 big enough/strong enough to offer resistance while also having a 5/other player who can still rim protect and offer help. Grant/TL or Al/TL for Boston last year; MN with Gobert as the off-ball being examples I've heard mentioned.
Minnesota's problem is that other than maybe Philly, most teams will do better vs two bigs than vs one, so while they are advantaged vs Embiid or Jokic they are similarly disadvantaged vs most other teams. Hence their record last year and to start this year, to some degree...
Well, there's the letdown loss. It was actually impressive that they hung on for as long as they did in a game where nothing was going right for them and the officiating was crap.
This still looks more like a collection of elite talent moreso than a team. They need to figure some stuff out over the course of the season.
This still looks more like a collection of elite talent moreso than a team. They need to figure some stuff out over the course of the season.
Letdown? They lost in OT missing a starter against the team with the best D in the league (also... MIN beat DEN at home). That is not a letdown loss unless you expected them to go 83-0, that's one of the toughest games on the schedule.
lol what?
man, Minnesota has some fantastic defenders. McDaniels, Robert, Conley is still really solid. and Edwards is really tough defensively when he wants to be. they gotta get Kat out of there and bring in a wing.
One positive from tonight - I've been under the impression that one of the very few (only?) things Smart does better than Holiday is guard players much bigger than them, if only because he's physically bigger. I knew Holiday was no slouch in that area, but watching him completely erase Towns was incredible. I'm no fan of KAT, but regular season scoring against a guy he's got 7 inches and 45 pounds on should be right in his wheelhouse. Really fun to see.
I just watched Ant Edwards put on a show while taking it to the 2023-24 Boston Celtics. There was no letdown anything tonight unless you want to disrespect Edwards. That guy is legit, right now and the TWolves are too with their limbs for days.
Sometimes you get beat and you weren't the better team. That's what this game in Minnesota was to me.
Sometimes you get beat and you weren't the better team. That's what this game in Minnesota was to me.
My only gripe was the shot selection towards the end. Some stupid three point shots instead of trying to move the ball around and get a better quality shot. Minnesota did the same thing, but Edwards made most of them (that heat check three? Just dumb in that situation)
KAT beat him maybe twice, I think at the start of the 2H. And Jrue fouled him once or twice. Every other possession was a miss or turnover or a shot by someone else. Legit performance. Maybe there’s our Giannis stopper lol.
Just wanted to echo this sentiment - the T-Wolves looked even more elite defensively once KAT was off the court. Given the extension they gave to Naz Reid this summer, it has felt - at least to me - like a Towns trade was a foregone conclusion this season.
No shame in losing to this team, in my mind, and I'm deeply curious what the Minny roster looks like after the deadline.
Btw, other than not calling a timeout and letting the team just chuck up a 3 when the game was tied, Coach Joe looked like a genius tonight pushing all the right buttons.
They should absolutely be talking to Toronto when the time comes about Anunoby and Siakam.
As good as they look now, they are gonna run into the same problem that every Gobert team does in the playoffs - he has to cover for too many guys, smart teams run him around and Minnesota will get hammered. I've never really thought this was Gobert's fault, the Jazz (and perhaps the Wolves now) just rely on him to cover up too many defensive issues. What works in the regular season just doesn't in the playoffs. Swapping Towns out for a solid defender (preferably a big wing that can play 4) would go a long way towards solving that problem.
No one. The timing and/or fit just don't work. KP/Horford are too valuable (we can't afford to lose another playoff rotation center), and I don't think either is a better fit for the current roster than Holiday/White. The only guy that it would be worth exploring moving for either would be Jaylen if things go badly this year. He can't be moved until next summer, when both Siakam and OG will be free agents. I don't know if it's still possible for the Celtics (considering the cap and the new rules) to execute a sign and trade for Brown and one of them, but that's the only scenario in which it works.
Assuming health, I don't see any major moves in this team's immediate future. The offensive and defensive potential for this team is off the charts once they gel, I can't see anyone new breaking the top 5-6. Maybe a White level deal is available to shore up the bench, but that's it.