2023-24 Celtics
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I wouldn't say the looks were great, but I really only saw 4-5 terrible shooting decisions that didn't involve a shot clock situation. The process wasn't great. They didn't really do much to take advantage of Embiid in drop and challenged him a few time they probably would have been better off kicking out.
Horford is looking a bit toasty on offense. Hopefully he can get his stroke back. He has been leaving a lot of his threes short. Embiid wasn't even really guarding him and was able to clog the paint by being that weakside roamer. Celtics were +20 with Horford on the bench, single game plus-minus proviso, but my eye test says he wasn't helping much at spacing the floor. (Part of the fix here might be not sticking Horford in the corner. He's not the kind of 3 point shooter than can't shoot AB3s -- if he's toast he is toast everywhere and not just above the break. It would have been harder for Embiid to roam and rim protect if Horford were in actions/above the break.)
I've never been high on Brown. His flaws drive me nuts. I can't even imagine how hard it is to convince guys who have been successful their entire lives that they should stop trying to do things they are bad at and focus on doing the things they are good at. Jaylen is going to have to figure it out, but I'm not hopeful. The mindset required to even make it to the NBA is probably not a mindset that lends itself to realistic self evaluation.
Horford is looking a bit toasty on offense. Hopefully he can get his stroke back. He has been leaving a lot of his threes short. Embiid wasn't even really guarding him and was able to clog the paint by being that weakside roamer. Celtics were +20 with Horford on the bench, single game plus-minus proviso, but my eye test says he wasn't helping much at spacing the floor. (Part of the fix here might be not sticking Horford in the corner. He's not the kind of 3 point shooter than can't shoot AB3s -- if he's toast he is toast everywhere and not just above the break. It would have been harder for Embiid to roam and rim protect if Horford were in actions/above the break.)
I've never been high on Brown. His flaws drive me nuts. I can't even imagine how hard it is to convince guys who have been successful their entire lives that they should stop trying to do things they are bad at and focus on doing the things they are good at. Jaylen is going to have to figure it out, but I'm not hopeful. The mindset required to even make it to the NBA is probably not a mindset that lends itself to realistic self evaluation.
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This made me break out in hives.
And it's really just on Jaylen - KP and PP are both making themselves available and are open for an easy pass. There's no reason to try to go 1-3 up the floor. Just ... why?
At this point, it really feels like Jaylen is listening to his critics and try to prove them wrong. That's less than ideal.
I think this is a fair critique and I am interested in the type of player you would want to trade Brown for.
My biggest concern is something that @PedroKsBambino touched on in the game thread last night and that's that this team just doesn't seem to have championship discipline. I don't know if it's more Jaylen or Jayson but it seems like it's both of them. I don't think anyone has ever said "they don't beat themselves" when talking about this core.
Who really knows, tbh. He did play one of the all-time terrible games and then got the mega contract so I feel like he's definitely pressing and, IMO, the guy's shot gets wonky under pressure e.g. missing important late-game free throws. Hopefully, it's just a rut. The block on Maxey was great to see, at least. It was interesting that he didn't get the inbound pass when he flashed open on the last play. Lack of trust from Jrue, Embiid's presence, or maybe that wasn't the play call? Maybe a mixture of all those.
I’ve wondered about this in the context of what happens when Al or KP is unavailable. Rather than forcing Kornet to play 20-25 minutes, I think they try to play small ball with Stevens/Brissett and Tatum as the other big. Should work just fine against second unit bigs and maybe even against starting bigs to save a bit of wear and tear on Jrue.
Embiid OB with 4 seconds left. An unfortunate miss by a ref staring right at the play.
https://official.nba.com/l2m/L2MReport.html?gameId=0022300159
https://official.nba.com/l2m/L2MReport.html?gameId=0022300159
It was pretty obvious live. All one can really say is that missed call fit with the overall referee performance last night, and much of the Celtics in the second and third quarters as well
The violation would occur at :16 and it looks like the officials call this like those in the NFL call delay of game penalties at :00 one one-thousand.
Yup if you are within one stride of halfcourt you are typically clear. Unless you get a "look at me" ref which can happen often...
We've been over this a ton: they don't show decimals, so the clock starts at 24.0, and when it shows 16, that's actually 16.0-16.9. The violation happens as soon as it shows 15, because that means 15.9.
You can verify this by watching the inbounds: the clock starts at 24, but changes to 23 as soon as someone touches the ball, because it's going from 24.0 to 23.9.
Nothing to do with officials giving a buffer: if they called a violation when it showed 16, they would be only giving 7.1 seconds to cross half-court.
Yeah I knew it had to do with the decimal. When I saw 17 I thought the number was 16 but you're correct.
Yup, this used to throw me a lot as a kid, couldn't figure out why refs were ALWAYS missing the call lol.
I haven't checked NFL clocks, but it might be a similar thing, where they give you the one one thousand because they're not showing the decimal.
I was going to respond but was busy and I haven't put a whole lot of thought into it bc we are so top-heavy loaded and you don't want to move Jaylen for 2nd unit role players...which I really what we need by the deadline. Like if you had asked me over the past two years when I proposed moving Jaylen I would have said packages involving guys like Kristaps or Jrue!
I've looked at it fairly closely and I just don't see a ton of options that make sense.
The 3 names that I've come up with are Mikal Bridges, Brandon Ingram and OG Anunoby. I think the Ingram idea would work but I believe New Orleans wants to cut payroll, not add to it...
Good because Ingram is too soft/injured. OG or Bridges (+filler for a BIG) would be great fits here.
Jaylen, an Alpha Wing, signed for multiple years, would make sense for the Nets/Raptors.
Problem with OG is that he is an FA this summer, so would have to be a S&T, which probably isn't workable.
Yeah there just aren't many matches out there for what we need. Maybe to a lottery team for an OG-type, who can seemlessly play a role in our rotation plus a Top-3 pick to plug into the rotation while on his rookie deal? Options are slim.
Right. You can also verify it by watching the shot clock when it starts showing tenths of a second: it goes 7 (pause), 6 (pause), 5 (pause), 4.9-4.8-4.7-....
Jalen Williams and some Thunder 1sts? Obviously the Thunder would have to add salary but that's one option. Josh Giddey can't shoot so I don't think he's as good of a target. Same issue with Scottie Barnes.
Maybe Orlando wants to get more established star power and would give up Franz and another piece?
Pains me to even type this but Desmond Bane?
San Antonio has Vassell and Keldon Johnson but I can't imagine they want to give away picks and speed up their timeline that much.
It's seriously really fucking hard to find players that make sense before even getting into what the team is looking for. Because of the roster the Celtics currently have, the player pretty much has to be a forward. It can't be someone too ball dominant because the Celtics have Tatum/White/Holiday....has to be someone who can shoot to keep the spacing. Basically has to be a top 75 player.
Remove OG because of the S&T implications (that also removes Siakam)...
So I believe there are 5 players that fit? Mikal Bridges, Brandon Ingram, Jalen Williams and Franz Wagner. If anyone comes up with anymore, feel free to add it here
Barnes looks to be taking a major leap with his shooting recently. He's hit 4 and 5 threes in two of his last 4 games and made 21-27 FT's during that time. Softer shot, tighter rotation. It's clear he's out the time in working with coaching on this.
I was thinking a tougher defensive minded guy like a prime-Draymond, this years version of Dillon Brooks w/o the desire to score 20ppg, OG.....that's what this team is missing in its core rotation in the frontcourt. It's where Grant is missed the most in being that physical versatile defender who doesn't need shots. We have too many guys who require the ball to be fully engaged with Jaylen being the primary one.
The guy I'd be looking at in a possible future Jaylen trade is Bam.
Would probably need Butler to hit the wall, and Bam to ask out of a great market to go play with Tatum.
But that's the dream target for me.
Jaren Jackson Jr? I agree with the thinking around Bam, but I can't even visualize him outside of a Heat uniform. JJJ is like the next most similar player, so that's where my head has gone in the past. If Morant totally flames out, I could see the makings of a deal there— Memphis is really short on shot creation at the moment— although there'd have to be a ton of salary coming along with him. Would set us up for a post-Al future, in any case.
Edit: this all sounds very fanboy-ish. I was just trying to address the OP question— who would even make sense on this team, putting aside the viability of acquiring that player.
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It was pretty visible too. Was basically the same guys around both Brown and Tatum (PP, Kornet, Hauser), and it all worked way better with Tatum.
I thought PP had a really good game on both ends. The Nets don't have anyone who can shoot over you in the post, and he's very good at staying up into guys on the perimeter.
Kornet is also playing with more and more force now.
Joe doesn't seem particularly afraid to give the PP/Hauser/Kornet group extended minutes this year, regardless of immediate results, which is encouraging.
So much of the attention on this team will be focused on Tatum and Brown and Porzingis, while the White/Holiday backcourt is quietly awesome.
Jrue has twice come one play away from a triple double. This year, his usage and scoring are way down from his established levels, but so far he seems to be channeling the effort into defense (so far career high defensive BPM through the early games) and rebounding (career high offensive and defensive rebound rates).
White is, as the thread says, criminally underrated. His efficiency has been off the charts in the early going, in a way that I don't think is sustainable (46% from three among other things), but I don't think the team's success depends on him sustaining that.
I think they are additive. With Jaylen I think you can say that, as talented as he is, there's some inefficiency and redundancy there that isn't helpful. White and Jrue might sacrifice some shots and points but they make the team and each other better.
It was good to see PP shake off his slump. Better shooting and 4 offensive rebounds, a few of which became quality looks for Hauser. After shooting 5-10 from three, Hauser is up to 43% and is third on the team in made threes.
One thing the Celtics are doing differently this year is having their guards crash the offensive glass from the corners, PP seems to be thriving on that. He is 4th on the team in offensive rebounds with 11 through 8 games. His career offensive rebound rate is 3.6% but he is at 7.3% this year. Holiday's career rate is 3.1%, his rate in his 3 years with the Bucks was 3.8%, this year he is at 6.3%. WHite's career rate was 2.1%, his Boston rate is 2.4%, this year he is at 3.5%.
Jrue has twice come one play away from a triple double. This year, his usage and scoring are way down from his established levels, but so far he seems to be channeling the effort into defense (so far career high defensive BPM through the early games) and rebounding (career high offensive and defensive rebound rates).
White is, as the thread says, criminally underrated. His efficiency has been off the charts in the early going, in a way that I don't think is sustainable (46% from three among other things), but I don't think the team's success depends on him sustaining that.
I think they are additive. With Jaylen I think you can say that, as talented as he is, there's some inefficiency and redundancy there that isn't helpful. White and Jrue might sacrifice some shots and points but they make the team and each other better.
It was good to see PP shake off his slump. Better shooting and 4 offensive rebounds, a few of which became quality looks for Hauser. After shooting 5-10 from three, Hauser is up to 43% and is third on the team in made threes.
One thing the Celtics are doing differently this year is having their guards crash the offensive glass from the corners, PP seems to be thriving on that. He is 4th on the team in offensive rebounds with 11 through 8 games. His career offensive rebound rate is 3.6% but he is at 7.3% this year. Holiday's career rate is 3.1%, his rate in his 3 years with the Bucks was 3.8%, this year he is at 6.3%. WHite's career rate was 2.1%, his Boston rate is 2.4%, this year he is at 3.5%.
I wonder if the pistons would move Ausar Thompson and Jaden Ivey for Jaylen in the offseason. Helps with our depth issues.
Not picking on any poster specifically but wouldn’t it make sense to have a “What would you trade Jaylen Brown for next July“ thread that stood on its own and allowed the people interested in reading about the 23-24 Celtics, of which Jaylen Brown is a part of, to engage in this thread?
Barnes is untouchable untouchable.
CTG tells the same story
View: https://twitter.com/SeanGrandePBP/status/1723203782526238755
CTG tells the same story
It's really bizarre, because there should be a non-Tatum combination of KP, Jrue, White and Brown that doesn't hemorrhage points, but they just can't find it yet.
I do chalk some of this up to chemistry, and I'd expect them to be able to find some workable groups and play styles as the year goes on.
Am I reading that tweet correctly that the Celtics are much better with Brown OFF the court?
Not only that, he would be the worst player on the Celtics (which is of course not true). I think there's probably some weird SSS going on, especially given how the C's have blown out some teams and had a few horrible quarters.
It’s usually the case, but when he’s out, Tatum is almost always in. So his on/off numbers will always be extreme, especially as he’s not a guy who will raise the play of other guys.
I think we need to stagger Tatum and Holiday, as they are clearly the two best creators on the team.
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Sure, that's one way to look at these numbers.
Of course, they're even worse with Horford and Hauser on the floor (you need to click the link to get the top of the list).
And according to that, Tatum should just play alone, because they're technically worse with everyone on the floor, except Tatum.
So far, only four guys have had positive on/off’s , so you’ll definitely see it correct somewhat.
I’m not sure CJM has done Jaylen many favors with some of his substitution patterns.
I think the idea is to get Jaylen more reps as a ball handler top of the key creator, which makes a lot of sense and I appreciate that it could definitely help in the playoffs.
However, the trade off of that is that these on/off numbers (specifically for this year) are going to paint Jaylen in a pretty bad light.
I appreciate that it’s a data point and everyone is putting out the caveat that it’s a small sample size but I can’t get too worked up about anything that says that Jaylen is literally the 3rd worst player on the team
I think the idea is to get Jaylen more reps as a ball handler top of the key creator, which makes a lot of sense and I appreciate that it could definitely help in the playoffs.
However, the trade off of that is that these on/off numbers (specifically for this year) are going to paint Jaylen in a pretty bad light.
I appreciate that it’s a data point and everyone is putting out the caveat that it’s a small sample size but I can’t get too worked up about anything that says that Jaylen is literally the 3rd worst player on the team
And one of those 4 guys is Payton Pritchard who has had some abominable outings. Yeah, I really don’t think this matters at this point in the seasonSo far, only four guys have had positive on/off’s , so you’ll definitely see it correct somewhat.
Filtering out low leverage situations, Jrue has a positive on-off of about +10. Pts per 100 and Opponent Pts per 100
That’s just because he’s stapled to Tatum, their net with him and Tatum in is +23.3. Pritchard has been mostly horrible lol. Which leads to the next point.
People can’t use on/off as a ranking system. It’s just a part of the equation when analyzing a player.
They’ve had Jaylen doing this for years, and it just doesn’t pay off come playoff time. We have primary creators, use them to do so, and use Jaylen as an attacker. But he is on the record about wanting more on ball reps, which is understandable, and part of team management is keeping your players happy. It’s definitely a factor in why his on/off is so poor for his career though, both regular season and playoffs.
This is what really needs to be sorted out. If the starters are going to play the first and last 6 minutes of each half, how best to split up the Top 6 For the remaining 24 minutes.
Maybe JB, Jrue & Porzingis and JT, White & Horford as cores for use with the bench players during the last half of Q1, first half of Q2 and then last half of Q3 and first half of Q4. Sorting out the 3 man unit mixes that work together best seems to be job 1 with job 2 being figuring out which bench players mesh best with each 3 man core.
Using my 3 man cores, JB, Jrue, Porzingis, PP and Brissett could form one unit and JT, White, Horford, Hauser & Kornet/Stevens could form the second unit.
I’m sure Brad’s data guys are working on this as the dataset grows but the sub patterns and which groups play best together is the most interesting question to me during this early season.
Truly a good problem to have when with just a little finagling 3 of the top guys can pretty much be on the floor at almost all times.