2023-24 Celtics
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"Calling fouls on contested drives to the basket - accurately and consistently - is incredibly hard. And it's a necessary, structural part of the game, so we will struggle with it for the rest of time."
Literally the argument you used for why fouls can't be called accurately. It's too hard so let's just say that it will always be too hard.
But while those refs are having such a hard time interpreting and calling contact.. let's also assume they can read people's emotions and gestures at the same time.. Refs already misinterpret gestures all of the time.. so I'm not sure why we can say they'd improve.
Re: 'cut some slack on the edge cases'.. that's exactly what's wrong with the idea. It makes every ref the arbiter of what is over the line and what isn't. Inevitably certain stars would get a lot more leeway vs other players etc etc. So we'd have more stoppages for technicals and more inconsistent calls because refs were empowered to give technicals for what they perceive to be whining. Sounds awful....especially if you allowed that policy to continue into the playoffs.
I don't have the same problem as you do with the whining.. I want more consistent calls for the same contact across the NBA. I don't really care about the whining (unless you're telling me that LeBron got thrown out of every game he was in for the past twenty years... and that it won't be a news story every time he's called in the future...because I think he'd be called once to try and scare everyone else straight..and then never again.) I don't trust NBA refs to make consistent calls and given their collective history, I think they don't deserve even more power to decide games.
You're asking these 20 year old athletes to be automatons while playing a physical, fast-paced game that is quite often stressful.
Many times it isn't about the ref making the "right or wrong" call since most are subjective....it is about what happened on the other end or try to buy equity in future calls. It isn't always "you made the wrong call" as much as they are stating their case for future calls. I spoke of this the other day....the refs are conversing with them too so it isn't always arguing the call as some think it is. It's all a part of the game, has been for many decades, as part of gaining an edge just as trash talking is.
This assumes the calls change while player behavior is unchanged. That's not what would happen. Players would adjust quickly.
Less complaining means the refs can focus on doing their job instead of managing players and coaches who are unhappy. There's a reason they yell at the refs - it effects outcomes.
I also believe you will have more people who are willing to be refs if they aren't getting screamed at nightly. More refs means you can raise the bar and hire better refs. It means refs won't be so afraid to make the right call on a star player at key moments.
No. I want them to respect the officials instead of trying to play them or influence them.
Don't tell me they can't control their emotions during the game. What percentage of players who get 1 tech go on to get a second later in the game? It's small. They can, for the most part, control their reactions when properly motivated to do so.
And when they really truly cannot, that's why it takes 2 to throw someone out.
Wow what a hot take! You don't think the difference in this game was 3-pt shooting? I didn't see anyone on the floor in that playoff atmosphere nailing anything in.
When you shoot sub 30 percent from 3 and the other shoots over 40 you lose every single time.
Sounds familiar enough I think this post was made about a million times at the end of May.
So frustrating.
Sounds familiar enough I think this post was made about a million times at the end of May.
So frustrating.
Turnovers being 15 to 4 when they showed it late in the 3rd didn't help either. Some of that you could probably say was effort-related. Or focus-related. Or something. Turnovers finished 18 to 6. Yeah, we got a lot of offensive rebounds, but still.
They also shot 8-12 from the line, which is doubly bad. Indy hit 17 of 21. Basically the whole difference in the game.
There was a 21 point difference in 3s that we keep ignoring. Felt more like we got beat than didn’t have effort or your usual favorite “mental toughness”. Celts basically held Indy to 9 points through 6-7 min in the 4th before Halliburton threw up two prayers.
that's how it looked to me. Cs defense (with Brown looking great--at least one steal, another close one) really clamped down for most of the 4th quarter. Halliburton hit at least one 3 (was it 2?) with shot clock expiring and another that he was fouled on that seemed like a hail mary. Hield hit a tough driving layup that seemed unusual for him and Nesmith hit multiple tough shots in the 4th quarter. A lot went right for the Pacers, including but not limited to in the last few minutes after the Celtics had pulled even.
I guess the bigger question is are the Celtics a good enough three point shooting team to be a top 3 team in 3PA? No team that averaged > 40 3PA during the regular season has ever won a championship. The Warriors won in 2022 averaging 39 3PA in the regular season but they're the Warriors. I know the league is evolving to more and more threes, but is 36% on 43 3PA a game good enough? I don't know how much I love the Joe Mazzulla fire up threes at all costs offense. It leaves them so susceptible to shooting variance.
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A disappointing game to be sure, but on the bright side...
That was a single elimination style NCAA tourney game with one team having home court advantage. The Celtics were missing one of their best players and they didn't shoot well.
It would have been a minor miracle for any team to win that game on the road with Indy shooting 48% from 3.
You have to work pretty damn hard to be in a game when you're opponent shoots 48% from 3
When the Celtics shot 58% from 3 they beat the Pacers by 51
The Celtic's effort level was there. Road losses happen in the NBA
If anything I feel like the Celtics will benefit from this game and lean on KP a little more when he is back
If Hauser plays more it can be a great strategy...expect Sam's minutes to continue to climb
I, like others, am irrationally frustrated by the result of this game. I’m going to take a deep breath and try to look at one bright side. The fact that Houser and Kornet played really well in that environment was a positive. I know Kornet got beat a couple times in the second half on D, but he was as effective as you could hope for in his first half minutes. Houser was awesome defensively, making multiple contests on drives, was active on the boards and shot lights out.
Silver lining: as fun as it would've been to cheer on the Celtics to win this damn thing, at least our guys will now be sleeping in their own beds, not flying an extra round trip to Vegas and probably partying all weekend.
probably to a higher payday
it's not like he is just launching wide-open 3s, he probably has the quickest release on the team
Hauser is already getting that payday. We are going to have to pay him well beyond Grant Williams-money to keep him a Celtic. We haven't seen a home grown Celtics player come from where he was to where he is now since......?
Edit: Avery Bradley? I can't think of anyone else in the last 20+ years. Crazy as it sounds the only other player who was a young non-rotation home grown player who worked his way into a starter/rotation guy was the man this forum is named after. Yikes.
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He hit two off balance threes and I thought Hield also hit another three... they basically didn't miss down the stretch.
He played 25-30 mpg right out of the gate as a 25 yr old rookie iirc.
Daniel Theis. He never got the money that Grant or Bradley (adjusted for era) got, and probably won't get what Hauser earns either, but he went from undrafted to playing a real role for 3 teams that went to the conference finals, including the 22 finals trip (and started 64 games for the 2020 team).
Maybe he should change his name to Sami Hauservich, and hop on the NBA Eurorail.
Not the same but IT went from 26mpg/6th man to 3rd in the MVP in 2 seasons. That was probably the quickest/greatest climb we've ever witnessed in Green.
Matt Ryan doing a nice job with the Pelicans this year. Strus, Nesmith....guys blossom when they get out of Boston it seems.
Doubtful. I think Hauser and his agent know that if he makes it to free agency in 2025 he can maybe/probably get a 3 year full MLE from someone - but doubtful that someone spends their cap space on him. Thats like 42 million depending on the cap. Add his 2 million next year and he is looking at 44 million over 4 years . I bet they sign an extension for even less than that to lock him into life changing money.
Grande and Max alluded to the two week homestand at the start of the game and it immediately occurred to me that if the Cs fell behind in this game that they would have some serious incentives to let go of the rope. Not saying they did this but a two week respite from airplanes and hotel rooms has to be a welcome salve.
I thought Tatum was pretty bad for stretches, settling for 3s instead of finding ways to attack, which worked well when he did it.
That said, if the Pacers shoot merely well from 3, and the Celtics hit anything, this is probably a 10-20 point Celtics win. They were really locked in on D, and Indy's ridiculous shooting masked that.
That said, if the Pacers shoot merely well from 3, and the Celtics hit anything, this is probably a 10-20 point Celtics win. They were really locked in on D, and Indy's ridiculous shooting masked that.
Celtics again stink in the third quarter, continuing to be the lowest scoring 3rd quarter team in the league - which is pretty remarkable for a team of their talent. Clearly the adjustments being made at halftime by opposing coaches are working; Mazzulla’s adjustments not so much.
Carlisle's adjustment was roughly the same as Mr. Burns' in the Simpsons baseball episode: "you, Strawberry, hit a home run!"
Mazzulla forgot to tell his players this, and so the Celtics lost.
The basically come out flat after every halftime. It’s not a one game problem..
And they are loose with the ball.
And they give up runs/fail to get stops in key moments. Off the top of my head, 2 runs yesterday: 1) 7-0 in the 2 minutes following Halliburton coming out of the game in the third quarter, 2) 9-0 to break a 105-105 tie.
Jayson Tatum is getting to the line about 25% less than he did last year, and, for the first time in his career, shooting under 80% from behind the arc. Last night the team as a whole did not get to the line much and missed one thrid of their FTA.
Some of the Celtics poor shooting from three is due to poor shot selection from three. Tatum and Brown are not good off the dribble 3 point shooters, but they love to jack up threes off the dribble.
Indy is a great offensive team and a terrible defensive team. But Indy's D had no trouble defending the Celtics when it mattered. Part of those backbreaking Indy runs was the Celtics failing to score. The Celtics scored 112 points - this season Indy has never held a team to fewer than 111 and their median is points allowed is 124.
If Tatum could be above 80% from behind the arc, I think this team would be unstoppable.
Amy thoughts on why Tatum's FT shooting has gotten worse?
I'll reiterate what's said above that turnovers are a big problem this year. I remember when Rondo ran point it'd be atrocious when the team would have 12 turnovers in a game. I know pace of play is different, but it shouldn't be too much to ask to keep turnovers at 6 per half. The team construction was supposed to help with that, too. Get rid of Smart and minimize the ball in Brown's hands.
Also, I think Tatum should iso on the block more. His shot from there is good and he can shoot over nearly anyone. Why can't he pull out a little Dirk or Jordan and end runs?
Expectations are so high. They can't be very good they have to be great. But, it's still only December and Zinger is out.
Just watching other teams around the league it seems like the C's pass the ball so much less than other teams and it often seems like their old bad habits of iso-ing and dribbling to death in crunch time continues to drag them down. It's just so frustrating to see them make magic when they move the ball and get a beautiful look with positive results, yet they'll get brain locked and do dumb shit like have a zero pass offensive possession where they take a much more difficult shot than needed. Jaylen taking a ridiculously dumb side step corner three after they had clawed back into the game jumped out at me. Tatum pounding the ball and taking the obvious three after Halliburton's four point play was another. At this point, it just is who they are and they aren't going to get coached out of it or change on their own. Come playoff time they're going to revert to the same old habits and make winning close games much harder than they need to.
They're 27th in passes made: 263.4 and they're 25th in assists: 25.
They're 27th in passes made: 263.4 and they're 25th in assists: 25.
Are they not great? They have the 2nd best record in the league and the best net rating. Despite some major changes to the top 6 rotation and one of the tougher schedules in the league. They are far from perfect, and I think anyone assuming they'd come out looking like the 15/16 Warriors set their expectations too high IMO.
As far as Tatum's FT shooting, could it just be SSS? Im sure he's gone through a 20 game stretch where he's hovered around 80%? The one thing that continues to concern me is the assist rate, hoping that gets rectified the deeper into the season they get and chemistry develops more?
I know we are analytically minded here but if every post game turns into a recitation of record and shooting percentages then there isn’t going to be a whole lot to discuss. 3 pointers are not coin flips. Sometimes you generate a ton of great shots and miss but plenty of other times the percentages reflect the quality of offense they’re running. As said above, they settle into a lot of dribble 3s with no real movement. It’s great when Tatum gets hot and they all fall for a few minutes but it doesn’t get anyone in rhythm and when they aren’t falling for him we don’t have a lot of answers. We have become like the D’Antoni teams winning a lot of games but pointing at shooting percentages when losses occur. They matter but the Celtics still dont do the little things well and their raw volume offensive approach likely will come back to haunt them again in a final 4 scenario as it has the last few years.
Which is why it all comes back to coaching for me. There’s too much talent on this this team for them to not be coached by a perfectionist trying to help them iron out the final flaws in their collective game so they could finally level up. The turnovers are such a laughable and consistent problem for this core and aside from a few media quotes now and then they’ve essentially done nothing to fix it. Shaky free throw shooting and poor late game execution have consistently cost them wins. They have little sense for game momentum unless momentum is defined by making a series of 3s. Tatum has really flashed on the low post isolation this year and it should be a consistent way for them to end opponents runs but instead when the going gets tough they bring him a screen at the top and he dribbles for 10 seconds and they try to execute something from there. He’s super good but he isn’t consistently able to beat men off the dribble to any of his spots on the court so it becomes a very high degree of difficulty operation for them when it really gets tight.
They really need their coach, whomever it is, to get through to them that all the little things matter. That 10 first half turnovers are going to force them to lose games they shouldn’t lose. That the big players they see themselves as execute consistently on both ends down the stretch and suffocate other teams out. I don’t think it’s an effort thing but it’s more that they don’t seem to understand how a more maniacal attention to detail will result in bigger leads that can survive the other teams big run. That you don’t want to leave things to chance that Caleb Martin goes en fuego for 2 weeks and you have an answer for that with high level execution by great players. With their talent really high level consistent execution is more than enough
Which is why it all comes back to coaching for me. There’s too much talent on this this team for them to not be coached by a perfectionist trying to help them iron out the final flaws in their collective game so they could finally level up. The turnovers are such a laughable and consistent problem for this core and aside from a few media quotes now and then they’ve essentially done nothing to fix it. Shaky free throw shooting and poor late game execution have consistently cost them wins. They have little sense for game momentum unless momentum is defined by making a series of 3s. Tatum has really flashed on the low post isolation this year and it should be a consistent way for them to end opponents runs but instead when the going gets tough they bring him a screen at the top and he dribbles for 10 seconds and they try to execute something from there. He’s super good but he isn’t consistently able to beat men off the dribble to any of his spots on the court so it becomes a very high degree of difficulty operation for them when it really gets tight.
They really need their coach, whomever it is, to get through to them that all the little things matter. That 10 first half turnovers are going to force them to lose games they shouldn’t lose. That the big players they see themselves as execute consistently on both ends down the stretch and suffocate other teams out. I don’t think it’s an effort thing but it’s more that they don’t seem to understand how a more maniacal attention to detail will result in bigger leads that can survive the other teams big run. That you don’t want to leave things to chance that Caleb Martin goes en fuego for 2 weeks and you have an answer for that with high level execution by great players. With their talent really high level consistent execution is more than enough
It was the 3Q turnovers that created the separation. Prior to that it was back and forth.
Haliburton pounded the ball and made a shot, Tatum pounded the ball and missed. Biggest difference is Haliburton is better at making those shots than Tatum.
It's actually their best defensive quarter relative to the league (they give up 2nd fewest points in NBA in 3Q at 26.0...they give up slightly fewer in 1Q at 25.3 but that has them ranked 3rd). Are they making good defensive adjustments but not the right offensive ones? Is it possible that given they have the best halftime margin in the league they are slowing down pace of offense in 2nd half? Grasping at straws a bit obviously, but if they were truly flat I feel like they'd also be giving up more points in the 3rd than they are, so trying to figure it out...
This is also my fear, and it seems like when the Celtics are in a head-to-head battle with another team shooting 3's they get worse looks (since those opponents' 3 point shooters also tend to defend the perimeter well). However, I do think Mazzulla is trying to find that other option to counter this - you can see it with him tinkering with the big man lineups since Al seems to be limited these days and Kornet is up and down. KP obviously helps this but the Celtics just haven't been able to execute in games like last night's. Another option people have mentioned is using Tatum in ISO in the post and that has worked sporadically but not when Tatum is off (like last night). I thought they did a good job of exploiting Myles Turner's perimeter defense but that was just in short stretches.
In short, they need to have a Plan B for when the 3 game isn't working out and it seems like the Celtics know this but haven't been able to put it together yet.
Why doesn’t (insert NFL team) always play like they are behind and the opposing defense is giving them 15 yards in the middle of the field when down 14 points in the 4th?