2024 Core

[BaseballJones]

I'm not excited to start this thread because there's still a month of THIS season to go. But after getting it handed to them by the Astros, this season seems...out of reach, yes?

So when I look at the rest of this season, I think it's all about making sure the core of the team for 2024 is in place, and then the team can figure out the rest for the offseason.

With that being said, here's what I think they have solidly in place for 2024.

C - Wong - he's been superb defensively. Subpar bat, but not egregiously so. Definitely a legit MLB starting catcher.
1b - Casas - he's been awesome this year, especially after a slow start. 128 ops+, 21 homers in just 380 ab. Future stud power lefty bat at 1b or DH.
2b - Urias - he's been so-so since coming over. He doesn't cost tons, and is under team control in 2024 and 2025. Probably worth keeping around.
3b - Devers - obviously locked into a long-term deal.
SS - Story - under team control for 5 more years (that 5th year is an option). Still a good baseball player, but I could see them dealing him IF the right situation came along. But he has struggled with injury and even performance this season.
LF - Yoshida - not going anywhere. Solid bat (115 ops+). Meh fielding. Useful MLB player who I hope improves the next couple of years, but that might be hard given his age. He probably is what he is, which is a not great, but pretty good, MLB player overall.
CF - Duran - now injured but should be fine for next year. Breakout kind of year this year (120 ops+, improved D). Really nice player to have.
RF - Verdugo - one more year left of control. I could see Boston dealing him this offseason if they think they can improve.
DH - Turner - interesting. He's old (38) and has one more year left on his deal, but it's an option year. He might opt out. Will the Sox want him back (probably yes) but for how much $$? He's been terrific for them all season long and I think he's well worth another year here.
OF - Refsnyder - has one more year left on his deal; he's been meh this year.
OF/IF - Rafaela - is he a sure thing to start next year in Boston? Or could he spend time in Worcester?
IF - Reyes - under team control; he's done a good job for them when healthy (which isn't often)
OF Abreu - is he here for good? Kid can swing the bat!

SP - Bello - right now their best starter by far. Young, electric. Should only improve.
SP - Sale - one more year left at $27m. Not going anywhere, but I don't think they can count on him anymore. Anything they get from him is a bonus at this point.
SP - Houck/Whitlock/Crawford - all under team control for a while. All three have upside, but none of the three are AWESOME. Good, useful pitchers and the Sox need to figure out whether they're starters or relievers moving forward.
RP - Jansen - one more year left under team control. He's been really good for them overall.
RP - Winckowski - solid bullpen arm, under team control for a while.
RP - Martin - one more year left under team control. He's been their best reliever this year.
RP - Pivetta - actually under control for 2024 (arbitration). Probably will be here because of his versatility and willingness to do whatever they ask of him.

They've got some prospects who are projected to arrive in Boston sometime in 2024: Yorke, Mayer, Drohan, Walter (I know he's already been here a little), Mata.

Clearly there's a lot of pieces there in place. A lot of YOUNG pieces in place too. There's a glut of OF - Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Refsnyder, Rafaela, Abreu. Likely can't keep them all, unless they decide to use Rafaela as a utility guy next year. But among the OF, that's a lot of lefty bats (Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Abreu). They likely need more RH power in there, especially because Devers and Casas are also lefties. So might there be a deal in the works? Makes sense to move Verdugo if they can get a better RH bat that plays OF.

Story will be key next year. They really need him to be normal Trevor Story - which would provide a solid RH bat and outstanding IF defense. I'm curious to see when Mayer is ready to go, but he's another lefty. Maybe Mayer to SS, Story to 2b, Urias to backup IF, and Rafaela as the utility guy that plays most nights SOMEWHERE?

It's kind of weird - the Sox aren't very good, but yet at the same time it feels like they already have a team basically in place for next year that has lots of potential to be good. At least offensively. Pitching is another matter entirely - they need massive improvements with the rotation. The bullpen can be helped by simply putting Houck and Whitlock in the pen full time but who knows if that's what they want to do.

In any case, this last month should be spent figuring out guys like Rafaela and Abreu, to see if they are legit MLB players right now and for 2024.

 

[moondog80]

Small point of order -- Turner can either exercise a $13.4m player option or accept a $6.7m buyout and hit FA. Which means he's a mortal lock to opt out, barring some sort of injury that takes him out for 2024. His bat has been fantastic, but there's a world where Yoshida/Devers/Casas all see 30-40 games at DH, which keeps them fresh and improves the D, and that world has Justin Turner on another team. So I don't know.

 

[8slim]

It's kind of weird - the Sox aren't very good, but yet at the same time it feels like they already have a team basically in place for next year that has lots of potential to be good. At least offensively. Pitching is another matter entirely - they need massive improvements with the rotation. The bullpen can be helped by simply putting Houck and Whitlock in the pen full time but who knows if that's what they want to do.

The more I think about 2024 the more discouraged I get. The lineup is likely to return largely intact, and I’m not sure it’s consistent enough to be a title contender. The overall stats mask the crazy mint to month variance in performance.

The rotation…. Ugh. Just ugh.

 

[BaseballJones]

The more I think about 2024 the more discouraged I get. The lineup is likely to return largely intact, and I’m not sure it’s consistent enough to be a title contender. The overall stats mask the crazy mint to month variance in performance.

The rotation…. Ugh. Just ugh.

The lineup has tons of potential.

- Yoshida improving with more MLB experience
- Casas vaulting into 30+ hr territory
- Story rebounding and returning to form
- Full year of Duran
- Devers bouncing back
- More Abreu and Rafaela

Defense and of course pitching concern me but the offense could/should be really good.

 

[lexrageorge]

It's interesting to note that the Sox are 5th in MLB in OPS, 7th in runs scored, and 10th in OPS+ at 105. But yet the lineup never feels like it's "fine" to me. I do feel they need to upgrade at least one of the Verdugo/Refsnyder/Urias spots.

Starting rotation needs a near total overhaul, aside from Bello. Team resided with the bottom feeders in terms of quality starts and innings pitched per starter. I think it's fine to go through one of Houck/Whitlock/Crawford every 5 starts, but having all 3 of them regularly start really taxes the bullpen. I'm not sure Sale is going to ever be Sale!! again, so best not to count on him very much.

Defense - unclear how that improves without weakening the lineup.

 

[bosockboy]

I could see the Dodgers offering an escape hatch on Story. They need a SS and can easily absorb the money. I’m concerned about his bat.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Good... but yeah, kinda sad post. Season is over and this discussion is being talked about in several threads

Responses underlined

C - Wong - he's been superb defensively. Subpar bat, but not egregiously so. Definitely a legit MLB starting catcher. Total Keeper. Probably one more year to pair with McGuire and hope that Keel advances quickly.

1b - Casas - he's been awesome this year, especially after a slow start. 128 ops+, 21 homers in just 380 ab. Future stud power lefty bat at 1b or DH. Defense has been slowly improving. Having a Turner (man Dalbec would be nice here) around that can rest him and Devers but keep their bat in the lineup is great.

2b - Urias - he's been so-so since coming over. He doesn't cost tons, and is under team control in 2024 and 2025. Probably worth keeping around. Good place-holder until Mayer is ready (and that kid needs to improve... I'm starting to worry about him)

3b - Devers - obviously locked into a long-term deal. He's stuck at 3rd for another 2 seasons at least. I actually suspect that Casas will end up being the more productive hitter so just moving Devers to 1st isn't a long-term solution and I really want the DH to be the rotating spot. Just have to hope he can improve....

SS - Story - under team control for 5 more years (that 5th year is an option). Still a good baseball player, but I could see them dealing him IF the right situation came along. But he has struggled with injury and even performance this season. His defense can more than make up for any offensive shortcomings assuming he isn't expected to be a major offensive producer. I'd love to see him as a Bill Mueller bottom of the lineup turnover type.. but having weaker bats in front wouldn't help. He should be finally ready for '24 and without any excuses (which are legit this season). I don't see a realistic market for him until he can stay healthy and better offensively... AND Mayer can prove he belongs at the ML level.

LF - Yoshida - not going anywhere. Solid bat (115 ops+). Meh fielding. Useful MLB player who I hope improves the next couple of years, but that might be hard given his age. He probably is what he is, which is a not great, but pretty good, MLB player overall. His fielding is better than the metrics and I suspect he's hitting an exhaustion wall. Keeping him in LF at home games is fine. Rotate him through DH with Casas/Devers/Turner type (if not Turner)

CF - Duran - now injured but should be fine for next year. Breakout kind of year this year (120 ops+, improved D). Really nice player to have. They need to keep him for at least another season. Trade value probably plummeted with his injury plus his slump. Would rotate him in CF and away games LF

RF - Verdugo - one more year left of control. I could see Boston dealing him this offseason if they think they can improve. Why trade him if they think he can improve? He's a good, solid borderline All Star player? One more year? It sort of works out perfectly with Abreu. If Abreu falters, they can consider a new contract.... honestly I'd offer him a 5 year $15 per and if he says no, you just go through the final season on his existing and possibly deal him at the deadline if Abreu is good or if they're "out" of it.

DH - Turner - interesting. He's old (38) and has one more year left on his deal, but it's an option year. He might opt out. Will the Sox want him back (probably yes) but for how much $$? He's been terrific for them all season long and I think he's well worth another year here. Can Dalbec be Turner? It'd be great if he could but I'm skeptical. He's a guy that would HAVE to accept a QO. I doubt any other team would offer him anything more than a two year deal.

OF - Refsnyder - has one more year left on his deal; he's been meh this year. He is good if he's only used against LHP. A good late inning pinch hitter and defensive sub. No problem with him in '24

OF/IF - Rafaela - is he a sure thing to start next year in Boston? Or could he spend time in Worcester? I think he should start in Boston. He has a wart and it's a big one but he's at that level that more AAA likely won't help him. He's likely to struggle for the entire season on offense. I'd start him in CF on away games and rotate him through SS and 2B at Fenway. Hopefully by '25 he's the full time CF with Duran the full time LF and Mayer is SS and Story is back at 2B.

IF - Reyes - under team control; he's done a good job for them when healthy (which isn't often)

OF Abreu - is he here for good? Kid can swing the bat! Needed for likely injury depth. Start the season in AAA, obviously. If Verdugo signs a reasonable contract then after '24 there should be other decent OF'er in the mL mix that could supplant him and he could be traded. If Verdugo doesn't, he can hopefully replace him for '25.

SP - Bello - right now their best starter by far. Young, electric. Should only improve. Should be considered a no. 3 type going forward.

SP - Sale - one more year left at $27m. Not going anywhere, but I don't think they can count on him anymore. Anything they get from him is a bonus at this point. I have a combo of Pivetta/Sale as the no. 5 starter for next season. Obviously it's Sale if he can make it through ST healthy.

SP - Houck/Whitlock/Crawford - all under team control for a while. All three have upside, but none of the three are AWESOME. Good, useful pitchers and the Sox need to figure out whether they're starters or relievers moving forward. I think the Whitlock experiment is over. He should be a bullpen arm and I'm willing to overlook his crappy numbers this season in the pen as he's been injured and all over the place.

RP - Jansen - one more year left under team control. He's been really good for them overall.

RP - Winckowski - solid bullpen arm, under team control for a while.

RP - Martin - one more year left under team control. He's been their best reliever this year.

RP - Pivetta - actually under control for 2024 (arbitration). Probably will be here because of his versatility and willingness to do whatever they ask of him. He has a Derek Lowe type of arm I suspect. That needs to eat innings and he needs to be stretched out as a starter again. Pencil him in as the "no. 5.5" with Sale. Likely one of the projected opening day starters will be injured.

They've got some prospects who are projected to arrive in Boston sometime in 2024: Yorke, Mayer, Drohan, Walter (I know he's already been here a little), Mata. I hope Walter can break the team as another 2 inning reliever. The others I don't see arriving unless there's injury and they're killing it in AAA..... people were calling for Cedanne to be up in mid June and Bloom resisted the call. I might also add that Winckleman could be in the potential mix.

Clearly there's a lot of pieces there in place. A lot of YOUNG pieces in place too. There's a glut of OF - Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Refsnyder, Rafaela, Abreu. Likely can't keep them all, unless they decide to use Rafaela as a utility guy next year. But among the OF, that's a lot of lefty bats (Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Abreu). They likely need more RH power in there, especially because Devers and Casas are also lefties. So might there be a deal in the works? Makes sense to move Verdugo if they can get a better RH bat that plays OF.

Story will be key next year. They really need him to be normal Trevor Story - which would provide a solid RH bat and outstanding IF defense. I'm curious to see when Mayer is ready to go, but he's another lefty. Maybe Mayer to SS, Story to 2b, Urias to backup IF, and Rafaela as the utility guy that plays most nights SOMEWHERE?

It's kind of weird - the Sox aren't very good, but yet at the same time it feels like they already have a team basically in place for next year that has lots of potential to be good. At least offensively. Pitching is another matter entirely - they need massive improvements with the rotation. The bullpen can be helped by simply putting Houck and Whitlock in the pen full time but who knows if that's what they want to do.

In any case, this last month should be spent figuring out guys like Rafaela and Abreu, to see if they are legit MLB players right now and for 2024.

 

[TFisNEXT]

The offense would "feel" better if they had a couple of stud starting pitchers. They've lost plenty of games where they score 4 or 5 runs because we couldn't hold the other team down enough. That's mostly because they have a couple #3 starters (Paxton/Bello) and a bunch of 4/5s.

The shitty pitching has made a top 8-ish offense feel inadequate because it is when your opponent is tossing up snowmen every few games. Maybe a top 2 offense could cover it up enough to make the playoffs. But it's not super easy to go from top 8 to top 2. You're likely to get much better return on money spent upgrading the run prevention which has way more room to improve.

 

[simplicio]

I'd like to see what more they can get out of Yoshida with a full offseason to tackle the conditioning issue. Doesn't seem wild that that could be an area with realistic room for improvement.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

I am a little less worried about the offense because we finally are getting some level of production from 2B and SS, and I do expect Story to improve over the next month. There were two lengthy chunks of the season when the Red Sox seemed to be playing with only 6 MLB quality hitters in the line-up; the first six weeks before Casas got on track, and June/July when McGuire was out, and Wong was overused due to negative value at backup catcher. That being said, if we lose both Duvall and Turner, we will need some right-handed power besides Story. Trading Verdugo for pitching and replacing him with a RH hitter in right could be a path to improving two facets.

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

Absent major team altering trades, most of the position players are already set for 2024. The one change that I see mentioned a lot is to acquire RHH OF to add to the middle of the order, either replacing Verdugo in RF or Yoshida in LF (with Yoshida replacing Turner at DH). Below is the list of RHH OF sorted by 2023 wOBA with better numbers than Verdugo, with Verdugo, Yoshida, and Justin Turner’s numbers included for comparison.

• Mookie Betts – 0.427
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – 0.418
• Aaron Judge – 0.416
• Adam Duvall – 0.387
• Chas McCormick – 0.375
• Luis Robert Jr. – 0.370
• Mike Trout – 0.368
• Justin Turner – 0.363
• Jorge Soler – 0.356
• Randy Arozarena – 0.355
• Julio Rodriguez – 0.355
• Adolis Garcia – 0.350
• Masataka Yoshida – 0.348
• Stone Garrett – 0.344
• Christopher Morel – 0.341
• Lane Thomas - 0.340
• Ezequiel Duran – 0.340
• Alex Verdugo – 0.337

I think we can all agree that Betts, Acuna Jr, Judge, and JRod are absolutely not available. Chas McCormick, Adolis Garcia, and Ezequiel Duran are cost controlled players for teams with championship aspirations, so also almost certainly not available. Arozarena is in a similar boat with the caveat that everyone in Tampa is available for a price, but I don’t see a major inter-division trade happening. Stone Garrett and Christopher Morel are not FA until 2029, so exactly the kind of players rebuilding teams would not be trading away.
Which leaves 5 names:

• Adam Duvall – everyone should be familiar with him, the 0.387 is probably higher than his true value but still a solid bat and certainly available.
• Luis Robert Jr. – Two years left on his extension @ $12.5M and $15M, with two $20M team options after that. Certainly a very good option, but may or may not be available depending on how hard of a reboot the White Sox are doing.
• Mike Trout – 7 years left @ $37M per. Obviously a great player when healthy but games played the last 3 years are 36, 119, and 82 and on the IL with a significant wrist injury. He may not really be available but there is a chance Ohtani walks and the Angels decide to tank. The hard part is that I am not sure he is worth much more than a salary dump and I can’t see the Angels taking the PR hit of losing 2 generational players for essentially nothing in the same offseason.
• Jorge Soler – $9M player option so potentially a free agent. Good bat, bad glove so not really an option to replace Verdugo and a lateral move at best to the Yoshida/Turner combo.
• Lane Thomas – 2 arb years left, so could probably be had from a rebuilding Nats team. Basically a wash with Verdugo offensively and worse on defense so I am not seeing much of an upgrade here.

Unless you can convince the CWS to trade Robert (at a significant cost), it would seem that the best options are to either re-sign Duvall and move Yoshida to DH or go with a Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo/Rafaela/Ref outfield and acquire a RHH DH. Either way it is basically the same OF as this year and I don’t think that is necessarily a bad thing. Maybe people have other names in mind, but I am not seeing a great way to improve on it.

 

[simplicio]

Robert Jr. has a pretty significant injury history too, though I don't know if it's predictive.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I'm not excited to start this thread because there's still a month of THIS season to go. But after getting it handed to them by the Astros, this season seems...out of reach, yes?

So when I look at the rest of this season, I think it's all about making sure the core of the team for 2024 is in place, and then the team can figure out the rest for the offseason.

With that being said, here's what I think they have solidly in place for 2024.

C - Wong - he's been superb defensively. Subpar bat, but not egregiously so. Definitely a legit MLB starting catcher.
1b - Casas - he's been awesome this year, especially after a slow start. 128 ops+, 21 homers in just 380 ab. Future stud power lefty bat at 1b or DH.
2b - Urias - he's been so-so since coming over. He doesn't cost tons, and is under team control in 2024 and 2025. Probably worth keeping around.
3b - Devers - obviously locked into a long-term deal.
SS - Story - under team control for 5 more years (that 5th year is an option). Still a good baseball player, but I could see them dealing him IF the right situation came along. But he has struggled with injury and even performance this season.
LF - Yoshida - not going anywhere. Solid bat (115 ops+). Meh fielding. Useful MLB player who I hope improves the next couple of years, but that might be hard given his age. He probably is what he is, which is a not great, but pretty good, MLB player overall.
CF - Duran - now injured but should be fine for next year. Breakout kind of year this year (120 ops+, improved D). Really nice player to have.
RF - Verdugo - one more year left of control. I could see Boston dealing him this offseason if they think they can improve.
DH - Turner - interesting. He's old (38) and has one more year left on his deal, but it's an option year. He might opt out. Will the Sox want him back (probably yes) but for how much $$? He's been terrific for them all season long and I think he's well worth another year here.
OF - Refsnyder - has one more year left on his deal; he's been meh this year.
OF/IF - Rafaela - is he a sure thing to start next year in Boston? Or could he spend time in Worcester?
IF - Reyes - under team control; he's done a good job for them when healthy (which isn't often)
OF Abreu - is he here for good? Kid can swing the bat!

SP - Bello - right now their best starter by far. Young, electric. Should only improve.
SP - Sale - one more year left at $27m. Not going anywhere, but I don't think they can count on him anymore. Anything they get from him is a bonus at this point.
SP - Houck/Whitlock/Crawford - all under team control for a while. All three have upside, but none of the three are AWESOME. Good, useful pitchers and the Sox need to figure out whether they're starters or relievers moving forward.
RP - Jansen - one more year left under team control. He's been really good for them overall.
RP - Winckowski - solid bullpen arm, under team control for a while.
RP - Martin - one more year left under team control. He's been their best reliever this year.
RP - Pivetta - actually under control for 2024 (arbitration). Probably will be here because of his versatility and willingness to do whatever they ask of him.

They've got some prospects who are projected to arrive in Boston sometime in 2024: Yorke, Mayer, Drohan, Walter (I know he's already been here a little), Mata.

Clearly there's a lot of pieces there in place. A lot of YOUNG pieces in place too. There's a glut of OF - Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Refsnyder, Rafaela, Abreu. Likely can't keep them all, unless they decide to use Rafaela as a utility guy next year. But among the OF, that's a lot of lefty bats (Yoshida, Verdugo, Duran, Abreu). They likely need more RH power in there, especially because Devers and Casas are also lefties. So might there be a deal in the works? Makes sense to move Verdugo if they can get a better RH bat that plays OF.

Story will be key next year. They really need him to be normal Trevor Story - which would provide a solid RH bat and outstanding IF defense. I'm curious to see when Mayer is ready to go, but he's another lefty. Maybe Mayer to SS, Story to 2b, Urias to backup IF, and Rafaela as the utility guy that plays most nights SOMEWHERE?

It's kind of weird - the Sox aren't very good, but yet at the same time it feels like they already have a team basically in place for next year that has lots of potential to be good. At least offensively. Pitching is another matter entirely - they need massive improvements with the rotation. The bullpen can be helped by simply putting Houck and Whitlock in the pen full time but who knows if that's what they want to do.

In any case, this last month should be spent figuring out guys like Rafaela and Abreu, to see if they are legit MLB players right now and for 2024.

I think we're largely going to see the same starting players we have under control.

As you say, Story will be key in solidifying the MI. I think they may take a flier on Mondesi if his rehab shows anything this year. But Arroyo? I think he's done if Rafaela shows himself to be even marginally ready.

I don't think Duval comes back, again, partially depending on the showing from Abreu and Rafaela.

Turner. . .I just don't know. Clearly you take the 2023 Turner in a heartbeat. Does Casas need a platoon partner for 2024?

**

I'm less sanguine on the farm's ability to impact 2024. Rafaela, Abreu, (maybe Walter). Meyer is the real wild-card here. At the moment he's injured, and he hasn't be lighting up AAA. Perhaps Yorke later in the year.

But the way I read that is they'll be getting a 3rd/4th OF (behind Duran, Yoshida, Verdugo, Refsnyder.) It's great to have the depth there in case of injury or underperformance, but they're not out-of-the-gate impact players, I don't think.

Likewise, Walter is a long-arm, and Yorke is (even best case) a dedicated 2B. Which means we'd likely only use him only if our other 2B options have failed for the first half of the year.

If Meyer comes up, it will be for SS/2B. . .but what do you do with him in the meantime? Get him reps at 2B, or trust Story to move without glitching on short notice?

We could always get lucky with a pitcher (Drohan, Mata, etc.) but there's nobody who really looks poised at the moment.

**

IMO, the big upgrade area (potentially) will be a FA starter or two. Perhaps a less-speculative 2B solution.

***
Money/Players coming off the books includes Hernandez, Kluber, Duvall, Paxton, Mondesi, Brasier, Bleier, Barnes, and Tapia. Per Cot's, they have $137M in commitments, and Verdugo, Pivetta, Urias, McGuire, Mondesi, Schreiber and Arroyo are Arb players. So at a rough guess they might be somewhere around $140-55M in commitments?

The magic number is probably the $ going to the tax threshold, which is always higher than the Cot's commitment number. E.g., this year was $180, but with $221 toward the tax. The 2024 tax threshold is $233, so they have some money to play with.

 

[moondog80]

• Mike Trout – 7 years left @ $37M per. Obviously a great player when healthy but games played the last 3 years are 36, 119, and 82 and on the IL with a significant wrist injury. He may not really be available but there is a chance Ohtani walks and the Angels decide to tank. The hard part is that I am not sure he is worth much more than a salary dump and I can’t see the Angels taking the PR hit of losing 2 generational players for essentially nothing in the same offseason.

I think the Angels trade Trout and pay a good chunk of his $$ in return for a prospect haul. And I don't want to be the highest bidder in that auction.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

The offense would "feel" better if they had a couple of stud starting pitchers. They've lost plenty of games where they score 4 or 5 runs because we couldn't hold the other team down enough. That's mostly because they have a couple #3 starters (Paxton/Bello) and a bunch of 4/5s.

The shitty pitching has made a top 8-ish offense feel inadequate because it is when your opponent is tossing up snowmen every few games. Maybe a top 2 offense could cover it up enough to make the playoffs. But it's not super easy to go from top 8 to top 2. You're likely to get much better return on money spent upgrading the run prevention which has way more room to improve.

But is the pitching really "shitty"? They're 6th in the AL in xFIP, xFIP-, and SIERA and 7th in bb/9 but 14th in BABIP allowed and 13th in batting average allowed. That points to atrocious defense rather than bad pitching.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I think the Angels trade Trout and pay a good chunk of his $$ in return for a prospect haul. And I don't want to be the highest bidder in that auction.

Funny you mention that because I think Trout to Phillies for a rehabbing Painter, Abel, Crawford, etc. makes some sense and it feels like a perfect DD move, especially if you can get $10-15M / year subsidized. Trout’s window aligns with the remaining primes of Harper, Turner, etc.

 

[Fishy1]

I think we're largely going to see the same starting players we have under control.

As you say, Story will be key in solidifying the MI. I think they may take a flier on Mondesi if his rehab shows anything this year. But Arroyo? I think he's done if Rafaela shows himself to be even marginally ready.

I don't think Duval comes back, again, partially depending on the showing from Abreu and Rafaela.

Turner. . .I just don't know. Clearly you take the 2023 Turner in a heartbeat. Does Casas need a platoon partner for 2024?

**

I'm less sanguine on the farm's ability to impact 2024. Rafaela, Abreu, (maybe Walter). Meyer is the real wild-card here. At the moment he's injured, and he hasn't be lighting up AAA. Perhaps Yorke later in the year.

But the way I read that is they'll be getting a 3rd/4th OF (behind Duran, Yoshida, Verdugo, Refsnyder.) It's great to have the depth there in case of injury or underperformance, but they're not out-of-the-gate impact players, I don't think.

Likewise, Walter is a long-arm, and Yorke is (even best case) a dedicated 2B. Which means we'd likely only use him only if our other 2B options have failed for the first half of the year.

If Meyer comes up, it will be for SS/2B. . .but what do you do with him in the meantime? Get him reps at 2B, or trust Story to move without glitching on short notice?

We could always get lucky with a pitcher (Drohan, Mata, etc.) but there's nobody who really looks poised at the moment.

**

IMO, the big upgrade area (potentially) will be a FA starter or two. Perhaps a less-speculative 2B solution.

***
Money/Players coming off the books includes Hernandez, Kluber, Duvall, Paxton, Mondesi, Brasier, Bleier, Barnes, and Tapia. Per Cot's, they have $137M in commitments, and Verdugo, Pivetta, Urias, McGuire, Mondesi, Schreiber and Arroyo are Arb players. So at a rough guess they might be somewhere around $140-55M in commitments?

The magic number is probably the $ going to the tax threshold, which is always higher than the Cot's commitment number. E.g., this year was $180, but with $221 toward the tax. The 2024 tax threshold is $233, so they have some money to play with.

Mayer was in double-A, not triple AAA, but yes, he was scuffling there.

I think you can add Stephen Scott and Ronaldo Hernandez to the mix of guys who could impact the team. Hernandez, who is only 25, has made a leap as a hitter that's disguised by an abnormally low BABIP, (his K rate has gone way down while his BB rate has doubled) and his fielding numbers indicate he can play catcher right now. Scott can play a little catcher, a little first base, and can definitely DH, and has a very similar batting profile to Wilyer Abreu and Triston Casas.

Hernandez/Scott can't hit much worse than McGuire/Wong, although I expect Wong will be playing catcher for the Sox for a long time given his ability to control the running game.

If the team does move on from Verdugo and/or McGuire and Turner, then you're asking Wilyer, Rafaela, Scott and Hernandez to all make a leap. I don't think the team wants to rely on all of those guys making a leap. I think probably they either bring Turner back as insurance or sign a Duvallish character who can compete with the other guys for the DH spot, assuming some other opportunity doesn't arise.

Nonetheless, it's a risk the Sox might take, especially since the offense should otherwise be improved by slotting in Story at SS and Urias at 2B over Kike/Arroyo.

I think Hernandez would probably be roughly equivalent to McGuire at controlling the running game, fwiw.

 

[chawson]

The 2024 tax threshold is $233, so they have some money to play with.

I believe it’s $237 in 2024.

Funny you mention that because I think Trout to Phillies for a rehabbing Painter, Abel, Crawford, etc. makes some sense and it feels like a perfect DD move, especially if you can get $10-15M / year subsidized. Trout’s window aligns with the remaining primes of Harper, Turner, etc.

The chances are remote given the circumstances, but I could actually see this happening!

But is the pitching really "shitty"? They're 6th in the AL in xFIP, xFIP-, and SIERA and 7th in bb/9 but 14th in BABIP allowed and 13th in batting average allowed. That points to atrocious defense rather than bad pitching.

Good points here.

Relatedly, Houck has an elite ground ball rate and Whitlock generally a good one, yet neither has ever played in front of a plus defensive shortstop.

 

[moondog80]

FWIW, basebattradevalues (which spits out some wacky stuff sometimes) has Trout as 95.6 million underwater. That's worse than GIancarlo Stanton, Trea Turner, and Javy Baez.

The only deals worse than Trout are Franco (though I think the Rays can get out of that if he's convicted?), Bryant, deGrom, Machado, Rendon, and Strasburg.

 

[Rovin Romine]

If the team does move on from Verdugo and/or McGuire and Turner, then you're asking Wilyer, Rafaela, Scott and Hernandez to all make a leap. I don't think the team wants to rely on all of those guys making a leap. I think probably they either bring Turner back as insurance or sign a Duvallish character who can compete with the other guys for the DH spot, assuming some other opportunity doesn't arise.

Thanks for the Mayer catch. I doubt they move on from Verdugo, unless there's drama I'm unaware of. He's a great defensive RF, and would only really be displaced by a newly-acquried player or Abreu. I think counting on Duran to recover from surgery, and Abreu to stick as a ML RF is a bit too risky when you've got control of Verdugo in his (presumably motivated) contract year.

 

[BigSoxFan]

FWIW, basebattradevalues (which spits out some wacky stuff sometimes) has Trout as 95.6 million underwater. That's worse than GIancarlo Stanton, Trea Turner, and Javy Baez.

The only deals worse than Trout are Franco (though I think the Rays can get out of that if he's convicted?), Bryant, deGrom, Machado, Rendon, and Strasburg.

That would imply Trout getting 7/170 or so on the FA market this year, no? Feels pretty light to me for a guy who still could have 2-3 elite or semi-elite years remaining. Of course, he’s struck out nearly 30% clip last 3 years so a steep decline could be coming.

 

[jon abbey]

That would imply Trout getting 7/170 or so on the FA market this year, no? Feels pretty light to me for a guy who still could have 2-3 elite or semi-elite years remaining. Of course, he’s struck out nearly 30% clip last 3 years so a steep decline could be coming.

He is coming off a hamate injury, sometimes power takes a couple of years to come back after that, sometimes it never does. I don't think he would get 7/170 this winter, maybe more like 3/90 or 4/100 but even that would be risky IMO.

 

[jbupstate]

Robert Jr. has a pretty significant injury history too, though I don't know if it's predictive.

Not related to Robert, Jr. but at the predictive comment.

I think we all understand injury luck factors in to how a season unfolds. In the past two, the Sox have absolutely been hit hard but it’s the clustering/timing of the injuries.

How can Bloom (or any GM) put together a healthy stable of starting pitching? Elfin would have worked great this season. Pitchers with the ability to consistently post are valuable. Would a rotation of SP3&4s that made 25 starts each allow for a killer bullpen? Can a slightly better offense support adequate starting rotation without a stopper? Can you field a deeper lineup (more DH types) that is flawed defensively and not kill the SP3/4 pitcher ?

 

[BravesField]

3b - Devers - obviously locked into a long-term deal. He's stuck at 3rd for another 2 seasons at least. I actually suspect that Casas will end up being the more productive hitter so just moving Devers to 1st isn't a long-term solution and I really want the DH to be the rotating spot. Just have to hope he can improve....

I hope your wrong about your 2 more years of Devers at third assessment. If Turner leaves after the season, as we suspect he will, I'd put Devers at DH immediately. He is what he is - a poor fielding third baseman.

 

[Fishy1]

Thanks for the Mayer catch. I doubt they move on from Verdugo, unless there's drama I'm unaware of. He's a great defensive RF, and would only really be displaced by a newly-acquried player or Abreu. I think counting on Duran to recover from surgery, and Abreu to stick as a ML RF is a bit too risky when you've got control of Verdugo in his (presumably motivated) contract year.

Yeah, I think that's fair. I think the Sox are in a bit of a bind with him. The safe move, obviously, is keeping him, as he was one of the most valuable and sturdy position players on this team, and one of the better defenders.

My problem with Verdugo is basically I think he's a platoon player (a very good one against right-handed pitching, admittedly!), who is asked and expects to play full-time, and that his value, which is mostly tied to his defense (which I would say is very good, not great, and has fluctuated) and hitting against RHP, could be approximated or even eclipsed with a platoon of Abreu/Rafaela. It's also true that he might be motivated to show out in a contract year.

I am also, admittedly, someone who is not as concerned about Abreu/Rafaela's transition to the big-leagues as others.

I think Wilyer has plate discipline that may even eclipse Triston's and his AAA numbers look eerily similar to Triston's (in a year in which the International League has turned into a launching pad). I like Verdugo, but what he gives you is an wrc+ of around 105 and decent defense. Wilyer's upside is greater than that, I think, and his numbers at AAA adjusted to league are better than anything Verdugo ever did in the minors (for what that's worth).

And while I get the concerns about Rafaela's plate discipline, and I love prospects with good plate discipline, Rafaela has done nothing but tear the cover off the ball the last couple of years, and his defense will more than make up for whatever struggles he might have at the big-league level against pitchers with better stuff and control.

I also think trading Verdugo before he gets expensive is probably the smart move, if you can find a good deal, rather than just letting him walk. Even if it's just another Vasquez type-deal at the trade deadline, that might be the right move.

But I don't think there's really a wrong choice. Keeping him and resigning Turner and seeing how things shake-out might be the safe and correct move.

 

[TFisNEXT]

But is the pitching really "shitty"? They're 6th in the AL in xFIP, xFIP-, and SIERA and 7th in bb/9 but 14th in BABIP allowed and 13th in batting average allowed. That points to atrocious defense rather than bad pitching.

Yeah it's really "run prevention" and I probably shouldn't have used pitching as a synonym for it....I do think the defense will be better than this year mostly due to Story being healthy. Some of the issues can definitely be fixed though with a stud pitcher or two who can strike guys out and take defense out of play more often. I don't think the Red Sox are going to have a good defense next year because of the way the roster is constructed. But they can perhaps be more mediocre rather than near the bottom of the league.

Assuming no better than average defense, a higher end pitcher who can strike guys out will go further improving the team.

 

[Fishy1]

Yeah it's really "run prevention" and I probably shouldn't have used pitching as a synonym for it....I do think the defense will be better than this year mostly due to Story being healthy. Some of the issues can definitely be fixed though with a stud pitcher or two who can strike guys out and take defense out of play more often. I don't think the Red Sox are going to have a good defense next year because of the way the roster is constructed. But they can perhaps be more mediocre rather than near the bottom of the league.

Assuming no better than average defense, a higher end pitcher who can strike guys out will go further improving the team.

I see two major potential weak-spots: Triston at first, Devers at 3rd base, and Yoshida in left field. If they choose to park Duran or Wilyer in left, Rafaela in Center, and move Yoshida to DH, that solves part of your problem, right?

My feeling is a lot of the Sox suffering this year has been due to having Duvall and Duran out in center, Yoshida in left, and a series of shipwrecks at SS and 2B. Otherwise, a lot of the weaknesses should be addressed by having Rafael roaming right or center field, Story at SS, and Urias at 2b (his bad defensive numbers are mostly due to being miscast at 3b, he's perfectly cromulent at 2b).

 

[grimshaw]

Small point of order -- Turner can either exercise a $13.4m player option or accept a $6.7m buyout and hit FA. Which means he's a mortal lock to opt out, barring some sort of injury that takes him out for 2024. His bat has been fantastic, but there's a world where Yoshida/Devers/Casas all see 30-40 games at DH, which keeps them fresh and improves the D, and that world has Justin Turner on another team. So I don't know.

I don't think it's a lock he opts out. Teams aren't lining up to pay land locked DH's 15+ million dollars.
The Jays paid Brandon Belt 9 mill. Soler is basically a DH and is making 12. JDM is making 12. McCutchen is making 5.
Sure he can probably play a little 1b/3b, but his positional value doesn't move the needle much since teams aren't going to pencil him at either position at his age.
It's not a market that needs to be reset IMO, especially for today's game.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I don't think it's a lock he opts out. Teams aren't lining up to pay land locked DH's 15+ million dollars.
The Jays paid Brandon Belt 9 mill. Soler is basically a DH and is making 12. JDM is making 12. McCutchen is making 5.
Sure he can probably play a little 1b/3b, but his positional value doesn't move the needle much since teams aren't going to pencil him at either position at his age.

He doesn’t need a team to pay him $15M, though. He gets $6.7M to opt out, so can he get a team to pay him $10-$11M to get up to $17-$18M? I think so.

The Sox, of course, could either consider the buyout a sunk cost and work to resign him anyways, or work out a new deal (which probably involves an additional year which doesn’t seem incredibly appealing).

A QO to Turner seems like a lock to be accepted. Can’t imagine they’d offer one, but stranger things have happened.

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

Robert Jr. has a pretty significant injury history too, though I don't know if it's predictive.

Great point, with games played the last 3 years of 68, 98, and 127 and counting. Unless you can get a pretty good deal on Robert, that makes me think even more the Duvall is likely the best bat we could add to the OF currently under control.

 

[grimshaw]

He doesn’t need a team to pay him $15M, though. He gets $6.7M to opt out, so can he get a team to pay him $10-$11M to get up to $17-$18M? I think so.

The Sox, of course, could either consider the buyout a sunk cost and work to resign him anyways, or work out a new deal (which probably involves an additional year which doesn’t seem incredibly appealing).

A QO to Turner seems like a lock to be accepted. Can’t imagine they’d offer one, but stranger things have happened.

Ah, I see. Missed that part of it. Maybe at his age it has to be the perfect situation.
The Giants probably want a do-over since Joc Pederson got one, and he hasn't been worth it, though he plays some ineffective outfield.

FWIW, Nelson Cruz - maybe a top 5 DH of all time, never got more than 14 mill AAV. Depends on what teams now value that position at.
Very likely he does opt out, though I think there is a small chance the Sox step up a little to keep him since he's short term and they'll have a ton of space.

 

[deythur]

I hope your wrong about your 2 more years of Devers at third assessment. If Turner leaves after the season, as we suspect he will, I'd put Devers at DH immediately. He is what he is - a poor fielding third baseman.

If that's the play then could we look at a Matt Chapman as the new 3B? The lineup would be a bit better and have some solid left side defense. I don't think he would cost a ton, he was at 12.5m this year and his numbers were a little down from his career averages.

 

[grimshaw]

Split this into two posts since they are different takes.

What I would do is reluctantly part ways with Turner, move Yoshida into a JDM position where he is occasionally outfield (Fenway with a ground ball pitcher) and move on with focusing on defensive efficiency. They could do Duran in left, Rafaela in center and Verdugo in right. Or re-sign Duvall to hedge against Rafaela sticking in the majors.

Yoshida clearly has stamina issues and the quicker he moves into only hitting, the better I think the team will be.

 

[chawson]

A QO to Turner seems like a lock to be accepted. Can’t imagine they’d offer one, but stranger things have happened.

They can't QO Turner, the Dodgers did in 2016.

 

[plucy]

Something to keep in mind with Yoshida is his splits hitting as LF and DH.
LF: 131 wRC+ in 304 PAs
DH: 93 wRC+ in 185 PAs
He’s been worth 0.8 fWAR as a LF, -.1 as a DH.
This is a small sample size, but he needs to adjust his approach as a DH. I doubt his defense would improve that much, maybe with familiarity at Fenway he’d get better, but he still has a poor arm, and the big ballparks on the road give him trouble.

 

[Brohamer of the Gods]

Absent major team altering trades, most of the position players are already set for 2024. The one change that I see mentioned a lot is to acquire RHH OF to add to the middle of the order, either replacing Verdugo in RF or Yoshida in LF (with Yoshida replacing Turner at DH). Below is the list of RHH OF sorted by 2023 wOBA with better numbers than Verdugo, with Verdugo, Yoshida, and Justin Turner’s numbers included for comparison.

• Mookie Betts – 0.427
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – 0.418
• Aaron Judge – 0.416
• Adam Duvall – 0.387
• Chas McCormick – 0.375
• Luis Robert Jr. – 0.370
• Mike Trout – 0.368
• Justin Turner – 0.363
• Jorge Soler – 0.356
• Randy Arozarena – 0.355
• Julio Rodriguez – 0.355
• Adolis Garcia – 0.350
• Masataka Yoshida – 0.348
• Stone Garrett – 0.344
• Christopher Morel – 0.341
• Lane Thomas - 0.340
• Ezequiel Duran – 0.340
• Alex Verdugo – 0.337

I think we can all agree that Betts, Acuna Jr, Judge, and JRod are absolutely not available. Chas McCormick, Adolis Garcia, and Ezequiel Duran are cost controlled players for teams with championship aspirations, so also almost certainly not available. Arozarena is in a similar boat with the caveat that everyone in Tampa is available for a price, but I don’t see a major inter-division trade happening. Stone Garrett and Christopher Morel are not FA until 2029, so exactly the kind of players rebuilding teams would not be trading away.
Which leaves 5 names:

• Adam Duvall – everyone should be familiar with him, the 0.387 is probably higher than his true value but still a solid bat and certainly available.
• Luis Robert Jr. – Two years left on his extension @ $12.5M and $15M, with two $20M team options after that. Certainly a very good option, but may or may not be available depending on how hard of a reboot the White Sox are doing.
• Mike Trout – 7 years left @ $37M per. Obviously a great player when healthy but games played the last 3 years are 36, 119, and 82 and on the IL with a significant wrist injury. He may not really be available but there is a chance Ohtani walks and the Angels decide to tank. The hard part is that I am not sure he is worth much more than a salary dump and I can’t see the Angels taking the PR hit of losing 2 generational players for essentially nothing in the same offseason.
• Jorge Soler – $9M player option so potentially a free agent. Good bat, bad glove so not really an option to replace Verdugo and a lateral move at best to the Yoshida/Turner combo.
• Lane Thomas – 2 arb years left, so could probably be had from a rebuilding Nats team. Basically a wash with Verdugo offensively and worse on defense so I am not seeing much of an upgrade here.

Unless you can convince the CWS to trade Robert (at a significant cost), it would seem that the best options are to either re-sign Duvall and move Yoshida to DH or go with a Yoshida/Duran/Verdugo/Rafaela/Ref outfield and acquire a RHH DH. Either way it is basically the same OF as this year and I don’t think that is necessarily a bad thing. Maybe people have other names in mind, but I am not seeing a great way to improve on it.

Looking at the list of free agents RH right fielders next year, besides Duvall the other one I could be interested in is Teoscar Hernandez who has always hit well at Fenway. But with him I would be more interested in which starting pitcher Verdugo (or a Verdugo based package) was bringing back.

 

[grimshaw]

Looking at the list of free agents RH right fielders next year, besides Duvall the other one I could be interested in is Teoscar Hernandez who has always hit well at Fenway. But with him I would be more interested in which starting pitcher Verdugo (or a Verdugo based package) was bringing back.

View attachment 70131

I can't see a better fit for this team next season than Verdugo, unfortunately, and I can't imagine a team acquiring Verdugo would part with a major league starter since they would likely be a contending team with a big right field hole. If the Sox were rebuilding on the fly for another season, then Verdugo is worth trading, but if that was the plan all along, then I think he would have already been moved for some near major league ready arms.

Something to keep in mind with Yoshida is his splits hitting as LF and DH.
LF: 131 wRC+ in 304 PAs
DH: 93 wRC+ in 185 PAs
He’s been worth 0.8 fWAR as a LF, -.1 as a DH.
This is a small sample size, but he needs to adjust his approach as a DH. I doubt his defense would improve that much, maybe with familiarity at Fenway he’d get better, but he still has a poor arm, and the big ballparks on the road give him trouble.

I don't think there is enough data where this could be predictive moving forward, but I could see push back from Yoshida if his understanding upon signing was to play the field.

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

Looking at the list of free agents RH right fielders next year, besides Duvall the other one I could be interested in is Teoscar Hernandez who has always hit well at Fenway. But with him I would be more interested in which starting pitcher Verdugo (or a Verdugo based package) was bringing back.

View attachment 70131

Eh, maybe interesting but I think you would need good reason to expect Fenway to increase his offense significantly. He is a negative defensively so I do not think he should be replacing Verdugo in RF. That would leave LF, essentially replacing Turner in the lineup. For the bat, his 20-22 stretch was certainly good enough but it also aligns perfectly with the typical peak of a hitter and his numbers (OPS+, wRC+, wOBA) have decreased every year since 2020 including being much worse than Turner this year. Perhaps 2023 is just a down year and combined with a Fenway boost his bat gets back to his 20-22 numbers. Coupled with improving the LF defense, maybe that makes sense but I don't know how much I really want to bet on his age 30+ years.

 

[chawson]

Looking at the list of free agents RH right fielders next year, besides Duvall the other one I could be interested in is Teoscar Hernandez who has always hit well at Fenway. But with him I would be more interested in which starting pitcher Verdugo (or a Verdugo based package) was bringing back.

View attachment 70131

Teoscar Hernandez is a good fit.

Another, though not an outfielder, is Josh Bell. He's mercurial and was terrible in Cleveland, but mashing again in Miami and will probably opt out of his 1/$14M. Could be a fine replacement for Turner, DH-ing for a year or two and serving as a backup to Casas at 1B.

I'm assuming Urias and Reyes are on the team next year, giving us support at 3B that Turner did.

An ideal trading partner for Verdugo is a mid-market fringe contender, preferably in the National League. The Marlins still seem flush with arms and have some questions in the outfield. I'd see if they'd take Verdugo for Trevor Rogers if he looks healthy this month.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

What exactly is going on here?

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/chaim-bloom-alex-verdugo-40-minute-chat-after-red-sox-swept-astros-outfield-future-mlb-rumors/?fbclid=IwAR1J18IrsfjwyLJepB_baUKRIchp4c3D-vXAQ5bNE3R1nSvN4apz-1m0kyY_aem_ASpMeQePQ5jSUGb0r3kWi8IHkrC-pNlwzQLxlNyZ2slFNw2ZHOc9LMwzc9y5h0jrxXo&mibextid=Zxz2cZ#llzto9vzojfelnk4ws

 

[jon abbey]

Something to keep in mind with Yoshida is his splits hitting as LF and DH.
LF: 131 wRC+ in 304 PAs
DH: 93 wRC+ in 185 PAs
He’s been worth 0.8 fWAR as a LF, -.1 as a DH.
This is a small sample size, but he needs to adjust his approach as a DH. I doubt his defense would improve that much, maybe with familiarity at Fenway he’d get better, but he still has a poor arm, and the big ballparks on the road give him trouble.

This was discussed here a few weeks ago, and I believe it was concluded that a lot of this is that he plays LF more in Fenway and DH more on the road, so the split is mostly just hitting better in Fenway, like all Boston players seem to.

 

[dhappy42]

As for Verdugo being part of the 2024 “core”… maybe not.


Chaim Bloom, Alex Verdugo seen having lengthy chat after Red Sox swept by Astros

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/chaim-bloom-alex-verdugo-40-minute-chat-after-red-sox-swept-astros-outfield-future-mlb-rumors/?fbclid=IwAR1J18IrsfjwyLJepB_baUKRIchp4c3D-vXAQ5bNE3R1nSvN4apz-1m0kyY_aem_ASpMeQePQ5jSUGb0r3kWi8IHkrC-pNlwzQLxlNyZ2slFNw2ZHOc9LMwzc9y5h0jrxXo&mibextid=Zxz2cZ#llzto9vzojfelnk4ws

I like Dougie, but with Abreu and Rafaela both knocking on the door, I expect he’ll be traded this off-season.

 

[bosockboy]

As for Verdugo being part of the 2024 “core”… maybe not.


Chaim Bloom, Alex Verdugo seen having lengthy chat after Red Sox swept by Astros

https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/chaim-bloom-alex-verdugo-40-minute-chat-after-red-sox-swept-astros-outfield-future-mlb-rumors/?fbclid=IwAR1J18IrsfjwyLJepB_baUKRIchp4c3D-vXAQ5bNE3R1nSvN4apz-1m0kyY_aem_ASpMeQePQ5jSUGb0r3kWi8IHkrC-pNlwzQLxlNyZ2slFNw2ZHOc9LMwzc9y5h0jrxXo&mibextid=Zxz2cZ#llzto9vzojfelnk4ws

I like Dougie, but with Abreu and Rafaela both knocking on the door, I expect he’ll be traded this off-season.

Or it’s about an extension offer.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

I would highly consider selling high on Duran this winter - I'm not quite fully convinced yet, and there is a logjam out in the OF if you think little Raffy will stick. I'd like one of Bellinger or Soto to be a big FA acquisition one of the next two offseasons, that would make Duran even more expendable. Maybe you can find an actual borderline good 2B to bridge to Nick Yorke with Duran as a trade chip?

I would also trade one of Martin/Jansen while their value is still high on a full year instead of at the deadline, but I think the front office won't fully punt on 2024 out of the gate, so that's moot.

 

[JM3]

This was discussed here a few weeks ago, and I believe it was concluded that a lot of this is that he plays LF more in Fenway and DH more on the road, so the split is mostly just hitting better in Fenway, like all Boston players seem to.

That was a hypothesis, but to some extent, it was disproven:

Home: LF 135 PA, 147wRC+ DH 79 PA, 121 wRC+
Away: LF 123 PA, 133 wRC+ DH 91 PA, 92 wRC+

These sample sizes are all small, though, so it's hard to say how much is that Yoshida just really loves playing in the field, & how much is noise.

 

[BaseballJones]

It's hard for me to see how the offense is going to improve in 2024, apart from guys just hitting better. Let's say their main lineup is back for next year.

C Wong - .708 ops, 88 ops+ - definitely room for improvement from him, but this may be what he is offensively
1b Casas - .870 ops, 131 ops+ - clearly trending in the right direction to be an absolute monster at the plate; 2024 could/should be even better
2b Urias - .667 ops, 81 ops+ - no idea what he ought to be or if he will even be the 2b next year
3b - Devers - .848 ops, 124 ops+ - his ops+ is exactly what his career ops+ is; I think he can do better, but this is basically normal Devers
SS - Story - .507 ops, 35 ops+ - this is THE key position. RH bat, doing absolutely nothing at the plate, if he gets it going, that's huge
LF - Yoshida - .821 ops, 118 ops+ - really solid bat all year long; he's not GREAT, but he's just solid
CF - Duran - .828 ops, 120 ops+ - room for improvement, but it's also possible this is max Duran
RF - Verdugo - .790 ops, 111 ops+ - having a year that's slightly better than his career numbers
DH - Turner - .835 ops, 122 ops+ - solid, professional hitter; not GREAT, but solid

So of this group, I see two guys who have the potential to be monsters offensively: Casas and Devers. They are LH heavy, with Casas, Devers, Yoshida, Duran, and Verdugo. Their worst hitters this year are all RH bats - Wong, Urias, and Story. We may see Teel arrive by the end of 2024 to be a much better offensive player than Wong, and we also might see Rafaela and/or Abreu a lot more next year (hopefully!). But that's a lot of guys who bat lefty.

They'll need Story to be much better, which of course he's capable of. It would be foolish to expect him to hit like he did in Coors (.972 career ops), but it's not unreasonable to think that he can be at least a high .700s ops guy (like, .780-.790).

What this team doesn't have is a RH masher. Is that guy out there to be had?

The Sox have some really good pieces if they want to move them, but move them for...what?

What would, say, Verdugo + a prospect get you? Or...what would it take to get Luis Robert of the White Sox? Obviously a LOT more than Verdugo + prospect.

I just ran Verdugo + Rafaela + Duran for Roberts through the MLB trade value machine, and it wasn't accepted. No idea how accurate that is, but that would feel like giving up a TON, but I think it wasn't accepted because Roberts is worth more than all three combined. So maybe a guy like that simply is unattainable for Boston.

Which is fine. But there aren't a ton of RH bats that are between, say, Justin Turner and a guy like Roberts. They could make a move for Pete Alonso maybe, but they'd have to pay an arm and a leg and he'd have to share 1b/DH with Casas (which could work I guess). Maybe a guy like Jorge Soler of the Marlins? 35 homers this year. $9m salary for 2024. Currently 31 years of age. He might be a guy that could improve the offense. But he's not good defensively, and the Sox don't really need more bad defensive players.

So this is going to be tricky for them. As is, they've got tons of solid bats, and a couple of LH guys who could mash, but very little real RH power.

 

[bosockboy]

It's hard for me to see how the offense is going to improve in 2024, apart from guys just hitting better. Let's say their main lineup is back for next year.

C Wong - .708 ops, 88 ops+ - definitely room for improvement from him, but this may be what he is offensively
1b Casas - .870 ops, 131 ops+ - clearly trending in the right direction to be an absolute monster at the plate; 2024 could/should be even better
2b Urias - .667 ops, 81 ops+ - no idea what he ought to be or if he will even be the 2b next year
3b - Devers - .848 ops, 124 ops+ - his ops+ is exactly what his career ops+ is; I think he can do better, but this is basically normal Devers
SS - Story - .507 ops, 35 ops+ - this is THE key position. RH bat, doing absolutely nothing at the plate, if he gets it going, that's huge
LF - Yoshida - .821 ops, 118 ops+ - really solid bat all year long; he's not GREAT, but he's just solid
CF - Duran - .828 ops, 120 ops+ - room for improvement, but it's also possible this is max Duran
RF - Verdugo - .790 ops, 111 ops+ - having a year that's slightly better than his career numbers
DH - Turner - .835 ops, 122 ops+ - solid, professional hitter; not GREAT, but solid

So of this group, I see two guys who have the potential to be monsters offensively: Casas and Devers. They are LH heavy, with Casas, Devers, Yoshida, Duran, and Verdugo. Their worst hitters this year are all RH bats - Wong, Urias, and Story. We may see Teel arrive by the end of 2024 to be a much better offensive player than Wong, and we also might see Rafaela and/or Abreu a lot more next year (hopefully!). But that's a lot of guys who bat lefty.

They'll need Story to be much better, which of course he's capable of. It would be foolish to expect him to hit like he did in Coors (.972 career ops), but it's not unreasonable to think that he can be at least a high .700s ops guy (like, .780-.790).

What this team doesn't have is a RH masher. Is that guy out there to be had?

The Sox have some really good pieces if they want to move them, but move them for...what?

What would, say, Verdugo + a prospect get you? Or...what would it take to get Luis Robert of the White Sox? Obviously a LOT more than Verdugo + prospect.

I just ran Verdugo + Rafaela + Duran for Roberts through the MLB trade value machine, and it wasn't accepted. No idea how accurate that is, but that would feel like giving up a TON, but I think it wasn't accepted because Roberts is worth more than all three combined. So maybe a guy like that simply is unattainable for Boston.

Which is fine. But there aren't a ton of RH bats that are between, say, Justin Turner and a guy like Roberts. They could make a move for Pete Alonso maybe, but they'd have to pay an arm and a leg and he'd have to share 1b/DH with Casas (which could work I guess). Maybe a guy like Jorge Soler of the Marlins? 35 homers this year. $9m salary for 2024. Currently 31 years of age. He might be a guy that could improve the offense. But he's not good defensively, and the Sox don't really need more bad defensive players.

So this is going to be tricky for them. As is, they've got tons of solid bats, and a couple of LH guys who could mash, but very little real RH power.

And you’re even counting Turner, who is 99% likely to opt out.

 

[BaseballJones]

And you’re even counting Turner, who is 99% likely to opt out.

Right. I think they'd like him back though - he's been great for them. But let's say he's gone too. Now you need even MORE right handed pop.

 

[Fishy1]

It's hard for me to see how the offense is going to improve in 2024, apart from guys just hitting better. Let's say their main lineup is back for next year.

C Wong - .708 ops, 88 ops+ - definitely room for improvement from him, but this may be what he is offensively
1b Casas - .870 ops, 131 ops+ - clearly trending in the right direction to be an absolute monster at the plate; 2024 could/should be even better
2b Urias - .667 ops, 81 ops+ - no idea what he ought to be or if he will even be the 2b next year
3b - Devers - .848 ops, 124 ops+ - his ops+ is exactly what his career ops+ is; I think he can do better, but this is basically normal Devers
SS - Story - .507 ops, 35 ops+ - this is THE key position. RH bat, doing absolutely nothing at the plate, if he gets it going, that's huge
LF - Yoshida - .821 ops, 118 ops+ - really solid bat all year long; he's not GREAT, but he's just solid
CF - Duran - .828 ops, 120 ops+ - room for improvement, but it's also possible this is max Duran
RF - Verdugo - .790 ops, 111 ops+ - having a year that's slightly better than his career numbers
DH - Turner - .835 ops, 122 ops+ - solid, professional hitter; not GREAT, but solid

So of this group, I see two guys who have the potential to be monsters offensively: Casas and Devers. They are LH heavy, with Casas, Devers, Yoshida, Duran, and Verdugo. Their worst hitters this year are all RH bats - Wong, Urias, and Story. We may see Teel arrive by the end of 2024 to be a much better offensive player than Wong, and we also might see Rafaela and/or Abreu a lot more next year (hopefully!). But that's a lot of guys who bat lefty.

They'll need Story to be much better, which of course he's capable of. It would be foolish to expect him to hit like he did in Coors (.972 career ops), but it's not unreasonable to think that he can be at least a high .700s ops guy (like, .780-.790).

What this team doesn't have is a RH masher. Is that guy out there to be had?

The Sox have some really good pieces if they want to move them, but move them for...what?

What would, say, Verdugo + a prospect get you? Or...what would it take to get Luis Robert of the White Sox? Obviously a LOT more than Verdugo + prospect.

I just ran Verdugo + Rafaela + Duran for Roberts through the MLB trade value machine, and it wasn't accepted. No idea how accurate that is, but that would feel like giving up a TON, but I think it wasn't accepted because Roberts is worth more than all three combined. So maybe a guy like that simply is unattainable for Boston.

Which is fine. But there aren't a ton of RH bats that are between, say, Justin Turner and a guy like Roberts. They could make a move for Pete Alonso maybe, but they'd have to pay an arm and a leg and he'd have to share 1b/DH with Casas (which could work I guess). Maybe a guy like Jorge Soler of the Marlins? 35 homers this year. $9m salary for 2024. Currently 31 years of age. He might be a guy that could improve the offense. But he's not good defensively, and the Sox don't really need more bad defensive players.

So this is going to be tricky for them. As is, they've got tons of solid bats, and a couple of LH guys who could mash, but very little real RH power.

Duran, IMO, much as I love him, has played over his head most of the year. I think he probably reverts to being a player with a wrc+ around 100. His BABIP ended up around .380, which is absolutely the upper limit for what we can expect from him over the course of a long season, and even with that he only was hitting .295. If he were to cut his K rate further, there might be room for improvement, but I wouldn't bet on that. Rafaela joining him in CF would make for an interesting platoon pair, although Duran was hitting lefties pretty well this year.

Story and Urias I expect to be better next year -- and even the rest of this year. Story is striking out even more than Wong, but hopefully making some adjustments in what he's swinging at. Nonetheless the metrics say he's hitting the ball awfully hard.

Urias is not hitting the ball hard (a putrid HH% of 28% with a LD% of just 10%), but he is putting it in play and taking plenty of walks, and I expect him to hit better as he finds his sea legs after the hamstring injury. Urias might have Yorke/Mayer coming after his position in a year or two, but both of those guys have concerns with their K rates that might make an adjustment to the big leagues difficult.

Verdugo and Wong seem like the obvious place where they could look for some offensive improvement. Verdugo will remain an interesting trade chip all winter and into the summer, I think, and Wilyer has looked great all year but is probably (emphasis on probably) a platoon player, either with Rafaela or with someone else. I wouldn't bet on it, but Wilyer might hit better than Verdugo over the course of his career - he strikes out more but he walks more too, and has way more pop in his bat.

Wong/McGuire have Teel and Ronaldo/Scott nipping at their heels, and is also an obvious place for improvement. The question is what we'd sacrifice defensively from promoting either of those two, and it might be too substantial to justify the move.

 

[moondog80]

It's hard for me to see how the offense is going to improve in 2024, apart from guys just hitting better.

The Red Sox are 7th in MLB in runs scored. Ahead of Baltimore and Seattle, only 13 runs behind Houston. If they hold serve with that and make enough of an improvement in runs allowed (20th), the offense doesn't have to improve.

That said, I'd expect them to have much better offense from SS and 2B next year, which will hopefully be enough to offset regression elsewhere.