Good lord, don't lay 7.5 points on the road in Pittsburgh.
Sounds crazy, right?
Except that....
(1) Pittsburgh is allowing 20.5 points a game,
(2) The Patriots, with Brady, are averaging 34.0 points a game,
(3) Pittsburgh has Landry at QB,
(4) The Patriots are allowing only 15 points a game,
(5) Tom Brady's career stats against Pittsburgh (not including the playoffs) are: 69.3% completion, 22 td, 3 int, 113.4 rating,
(6) Brady's career game log in Pittsburgh is (not counting the 2002 playoff game where he left early in the game):
2004: 25-43 (58.1%), 271 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 34-20 loss
2005: 31-41 (75.6%), 372 yds, 0 td, 1 int, 23-20 win
2005: 14-21 (66.7%), 207 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 41-27 win (playoffs)
2010: 30-43 (69.8%), 350 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 39-26 win
2011: 24-35 (68.6%), 198 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 25-17 loss
At one of the hardest places to play in the NFL, Brady is 3-2, with a QB rating of 99.9, and his teams have averaged 28.0 points a game.
Long story short, this looks like it has the makings of a 27-17 kind of Patriots win.
But yeah, 7.5 points on the road in Pittsburgh usually isn't a bet one would be eager to take. But this time, you might make a lot of money going that route.