Celtics in 18-19

[benhogan]

Baynes deserves some credit for his performance on Valanciunas last night. Aron absolutely outplayed him.

Since I've been bitchin about Baynes usage, I want to give Brad some credit for using Aron whenever Jonas was on the court (for ~ 20 minutes). Using Baynes against the other teams' burly BIG weather its starting or from the bench is the right situational play.

Otherwise, the Celtic starting unit is still weak and either Hayward or Brown need to be coming off the bench. Hayward being the 2nd units primary facilitator would be my choice. BUT Jaylen will see more pine time if he continues to consider himself the #1/2 option on offense, instead of being opportunistic on offense and focusing on defensive stops.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I think it was about the defense. The had Smart on Kawhi for a while and I don’t think there’s a good argument that Smart was out there over Jaylen for offense. The Smart on Kawhi experiment went poorly, he scored at will. Brad switched to Morris and it went very well.

I thought you meant in crunch time and OT.

Smart played 18 minutes. Without replaying the game (though I wish I had time to do that), I'm pretty sure that in the lineups in which he played, he was going to play KL because he's the best guy really to do it.

In the OT, here's what Brad had to say about why he went with MM rather than JB: "We have a lot of good players. So, there’s going to be times when guys that are good aren’t playing in the end. And there’s going to be other times where we lean on them for, like we did with Kyrie (Irving), 38 minutes in a night. I just think that’s part of it. And I thought (Brown) did a lot of good things early, like you said, and obviously we made some changes at the start of the fourth and he played in that group that kind of got us back into it. But then at the end, I just felt like Morris on Leonard was the way we wanted to go. And it worked out this time. But who knows. We need Jaylen. We need Jaylen to be a late-game player, for sure."

To me that's coachspeak and the real reason he did it because JB wasn't playing well on the offensive end since he missed every shot he took after the 1Q.

YMMV.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

A bit here on Mook over Jaylen for kovering Kwahi in the krunch last night. Nothing too substantive from Stevens- his basic “We have a lot of talented guys” spiel.

https://nesn.com/2018/11/why-marcus-morris-not-jaylen-brown-guarded-kawhi-leonard-down-the-stretch/

Both guys have touched on it this season, but I’m really encouraged by the mutual faith between Kyrie and Brad. It really sounds like Brad trusts Kyrie to make the right decisions and play with purpose, and Kyrie trusts Brad to prepare the team, come up with schemes and game-specific plans, and generally put them in position to win. I think it bodes very well to have that kind of respect between a coach and the franchise player, especially when that player is the floor general.

Relatedly, Kyrie has been fantastic this season. With his otherworldly scoring ability (honestly, he’s the best ball-handler AND the best finisher I’ve ever seen, which are two killer attributes to combine), his defense and decision-making are always going to determine just how far he can go as a player. His D has been really good this year. Not “good for Kyrie” sliding-scale good, but actually good. For any PG. And I see him developing the mind-meld chemistry he has with Al with Tatum now too, and I think he’s mindful about getting Hayward and Jaylen there too. I think he’s going about bringing the team along offensively in a thoughtful and deliberate way. I have a lot of confidence in him as a team leader.

I echo the concern that others have expressed- Rozier is the guy that doesn’t seem like a fit with a healthy lineup. I think it’s tough for a lot of ball-dominant scoring guards to come off the bench and play sporadically. They can get into the flow of the game, and their assertiveness becomes a liability without that feel and confidence. Some guys thrive in the role (Crawford, Lou Williams) but Rozier has struggled with it. He still holds value as injury insurance, but I don’t know how much he’ll contribute to a healthy squad this talented.

 

[amarshal2]

I thought you meant in crunch time and OT.

Smart played 18 minutes. Without replaying the game (though I wish I had time to do that), I'm pretty sure that in the lineups in which he played, he was going to play KL because he's the best guy really to do it.

Isn’t that a choice though? It’s not like Brad is limited in his options for guys who could try and matchup on KL/the opposing teams best player. There’s 4-5 guys who could do it. That was very likely defensive priority #1, slow down Kawhi. I feel confident he actively chose to put Smart on Kawhi rather than fell backwards into it out of circumstance.

In the OT, here's what Brad had to say about why he went with MM rather than JB: "We have a lot of good players. So, there’s going to be times when guys that are good aren’t playing in the end. And there’s going to be other times where we lean on them for, like we did with Kyrie (Irving), 38 minutes in a night. I just think that’s part of it. And I thought (Brown) did a lot of good things early, like you said, and obviously we made some changes at the start of the fourth and he played in that group that kind of got us back into it. But then at the end, I just felt like Morris on Leonard was the way we wanted to go. And it worked out this time. But who knows. We need Jaylen. We need Jaylen to be a late-game player, for sure."

To me that's coachspeak and the real reason he did it because JB wasn't playing well on the offensive end since he missed every shot he took after the 1Q.

YMMV.

I don’t know man, in the quote you provided he literally says, specifically, that the reason MM was in the game was for defending KL. I think my mind does vary.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Any chance that Marcus Morris resigns here next year? I would think not, but he offers at this time what everyone hopes Jaylen Brown will offer some day. He has got to be one of the most underpaid player in the league right now?

He's supposedly been bitching since he got here to be starting so something would have to give for him to sign for a return. I love what he brings to this team and he's muscled past Jaylen as that reliable all-purpose wing. With them being pretty much redundant I'm confident only one will be here long term. It's similar to Kyrie and Rozier. All these guys are starters and every one of them are going to get paid but only one from each position from the Celtics.

 

[lovegtm]

He's supposedly been bitching since he got here to be starting so something would have to give for him to sign for a return. I love what he brings to this team and he's muscled past Jaylen as that reliable all-purpose wing. With them being pretty much redundant I'm confident only one will be here long term. It's similar to Kyrie and Rozier. All these guys are starters and every one of them are going to get paid but only one from each position from the Celtics.

Yeah, definitely an issue that you have 4 guys for 3 spots on the wing. Brown is also one of the best young trade pieces in the league: most contenders wouldn't be able to give up someone anywhere near his talent and remain competitive, so I'm starting to think that Morris' drastic improvement is making him a lot more likely to get moved.

The Rozier and Morris situations are a bit less comparable than at the start of the year, simply because Morris can fit with any lineup and plays a lot better off the ball, and as a multi-position defender. He definitely wanted to be a starter at the start of the year, but I wonder whether a year of experiencing being the clear 6th man on an elite team will change his mind. He's already changed his mind a lot as to how basketball should be played, so it's not unthinkable.

In contrast, the Rozier situation seems pretty fucked, and I'm not sure what they do at this point.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yeah, definitely an issue that you have 4 guys for 3 spots on the wing. Brown is also one of the best young trade pieces in the league: most contenders wouldn't be able to give up someone anywhere near his talent and remain competitive, so I'm starting to think that Morris' drastic improvement is making him a lot more likely to get moved.

The Rozier and Morris situations are a bit less comparable than at the start of the year, simply because Morris can fit with any lineup and plays a lot better off the ball, and as a multi-position defender. He definitely wanted to be a starter at the start of the year, but I wonder whether a year of experiencing being the clear 6th man on an elite team will change his mind. He's already changed his mind a lot as to how basketball should be played, so it's not unthinkable.

In contrast, the Rozier situation seems pretty fucked, and I'm not sure what they do at this point.

I'd be shocked if Morris accepted any role other than 30-35 mpg starter while being properly compensated for that position. He is going to cost a ton to bring back.and seems like one of Ainge's many value plays that he gets the most out of prior to the player being overpaid by someone else.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think it was about the defense. The had Smart on Kawhi for a while and I don’t think there’s a good argument that Smart was out there over Jaylen for offense. The Smart on Kawhi experiment went poorly, he scored at will. Brad switched to Morris and it went very well.

Yes. But thinking more broadly, the Celtics can run a lot of "big wing" lineups given their personnel. I think it is a team strength that gets underused because of the need to find minutes for Rozier. A big difference between last year's playoff team and the current team is that the playoff team very rarely had 2 little guys on the floor together and had a decent number of minutes where Smart was the only guy shorter than 6'7". This year, that isn't the case, but Brad went to the relatively rare "big wing" look last night and it paid off.

Any chance that Marcus Morris resigns here next year? I would think not, but he offers at this time what everyone hopes Jaylen Brown will offer some day. He has got to be one of the most underpaid player in the league right now?

Virtually zero chance. The only way I could see it is if Al and Kyrie are both gone somehow.

 

[nighthob]

He literally did.

He literally didn’t. Your inability to read or think logically isn’t his fault.

If you had to weigh all the factors in why Kawhi Leonard’s teams have beaten the Celtics, I don’t think continuity of system dating back to David Robinson has even “some” relevance.

The first thing that pops to the mind of most intelligent fans is “Leonard was leading a title contender from 2013-2016 and Boston was a rebuilding squad for most of that time frame”. But, hey, don’t let me stop you from tilting at strawmen.

Bingo. Thanks nighthob, you caught my drift exactly. It's way more a timing thing between the organizations than it being attributed to a single player. The Cs did well against the Duncan era Spurs when they had the Big 3 at their peak, but before and after that the Spurs have dominated them during rebuilds. So the 2 long winning streaks aren't specifically attributable to Duncan or Kawhi individually. The Spurs organization as a whole has destroyed every mediocre Celtics team for the last 20 years.

Since Robinson entered the NBA (1990), the Spurs have had a 42-13 record against Boston. And that’s with Boston going 6-3 during the PGA years. Take out that four year stretch and they have a 39-7 record against the Celtics. It’s been generational dominance. The pendulum is swinging the other way now, thankfully.

 

[mcpickl]

That's funny, I literally just logged on to post something asking about re-signing Morris. His attitude change is for real, as is his improved shot selection. I'd FAR rather have him for 3-4 years at $10-14M than Rozier for really any price. Being able to play big while staying skilled gives so many advantages that I have to imagine they're looking at ways to bring him back.

Put another way: for the next 3-4 years of championship contention, would you rather have Mook or Smart? The money will likely be similar, and Mook adds so much more by being a plus offensive player.

Smart, and not particularly close for me.

Remove Smart and you'd have no one to give opposing point guards hell when Kyrie is resting. Smart is good at everything excepting shooting. While shooting is obviously very important, having a role player that can contribute in every other area, including being special on defense, is extremely valuable.

Morris in on a really hot streak right now. He's shooting 49% from three after being a 36% three point shooter for his career. When that inevitably levels off I don't think this would even be an argument. While Morris is a good defender, he'n not in the class of Smart. He doesn't handle the ball, he doesn't pass, a real good guy to have as a 7th man though.

He's probably going to get paid as someones starter, and they'll end up disappointed.

 

[DJnVa]

Hey guys, maybe the Spurs pissing match could be moved?

Or, you know, ended.

 

[nighthob]

Morris in on a really hot streak right now. He's shooting 49% from three after being a 36% three point shooter for his career. When that inevitably levels off I don't think this would even be an argument. While Morris is a good defender, he'n not in the class of Smart. He doesn't handle the ball, he doesn't pass, a real good guy to have as a 7th man though.

He's probably going to get paid as someones starter, and they'll end up disappointed.

I expect the Thunder to put on a full court press for him. And that’s probably the one team that wouldn’t end up disappointed, since they’d be looking for a third option type to provide wing D and some shooting.

 

[the moops]

OKC is in cap hell - already have 149 million committed for next year. Perhaps Noel and Patterson opt out, but that is only 7.5 million. I can't imagine them moving enough salary to make a substantial offer to Morris

 

[bigq]

While Morris is a good defender, he'n not in the class of Smart.

They are both very good defensive players. Smart provides versatility in that he can effectively defend both guards and forwards. I think a big part of bringing Morris aboard was specifically because he was good defensively against LeBron. Not as much of a concern now that James is in LA and with the amount of switching that occurs now I’m not sure that it matters. I do agree with your broader point regarding preferring Smart to Morris but it’s not an apples to apples comparison.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Baynes deserves some credit for his performance on Valanciunas last night. Aron absolutely outplayed him.

Since I've been bitchin about Baynes usage, I want to give Brad some credit for using Aron whenever Jonas was on the court (for ~ 20 minutes). Using Baynes against the other teams' burly BIG weather its starting or from the bench is the right situational play.

Otherwise, the Celtic starting unit is still weak and either Hayward or Brown need to be coming off the bench. Hayward being the 2nd units primary facilitator would be my choice. BUT Jaylen will see more pine time if he continues to consider himself the #1/2 option on offense, instead of being opportunistic on offense and focusing on defensive stops.

For disclosure purposes this was not your position on the Baynes playing time rotational debate.

I don't know why Brad needs credit for using his second unit big against the oppositions 2nd unit big as I don't know anyone who would prefer otherwise. You have been promoting having Baynes start with Horford and last night the two rotations that Baynes played was when he subbed for Horford as they didn't play a single minute together.

 

[benhogan]

For disclosure purposes this was not your position on the Baynes playing time rotational debate.

I don't know why Brad needs credit for using his second unit big against the oppositions 2nd unit big as I don't know anyone who would prefer otherwise. You have been promoting having Baynes start with Horford and last night the two rotations that Baynes played was when he subbed for Horford as they didn't play a single minute together.

My stance on the starting unit is situational. Start Baynes with Al when the other team starts with a classic, burly, low-post BIG. IE when playing Embiid, Zeller, Thompson, Howard, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Whiteside, Vucevic, Drummond, Turner, Kantor, Nurkic, Adams, Gortat, Gobert, McGee, Jones etc etc etc. So ~80% of the time you end up with Aron Baynes starting alongside Al.

It lowers the wear and tear on Horford and creates a more balanced offensive/defensive lineup IMO

In those instances where a classic BIG isn't starting (ie Ibaka) you can go small with Al as your 5. AND match-up Baynes with Valanciunas (a classic BIG) when Jonas hits the floor.

I know you don't agree with me and love the idea of starting Al at the 5 all the time since it would create mismatches for the other team. I look forward to seeing the offensive juggernaut you forecasted for that unit.

We've had this debate numerous times, my stance hasn't changed.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

My stance on the starting unit is situational. Start Baynes with Al when the other team starts with a classic, burly, low-post BIG. IE when playing Embiid, Zeller, Thompson, Howard, Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, Whiteside, Vucevic, Drummond, Turner, Kantor, Nurkic, Adams, Gortat, Gobert, McGee, Jones etc etc etc. So ~80% of the time you end up with Aron Baynes starting alongside Al.

It lowers the wear and tear on Horford and creates a more balanced offensive/defensive lineup IMO

In those instances where a classic BIG isn't starting (ie Ibaka) you can go small with Al as your 5. AND match-up Baynes with Valanciunas (a classic BIG) when Jonas hits the floor.

I know you don't agree with me and love the idea of starting Al at the 5 since it would create mismatches for the other team. We've had this debate numerous times, my stance hasn't changed.

Brook Lopez hasn't stepped foot inside the 3-point line in 3 years. He has 140 FGA this year......106 have been 3's. I feel that somehow Horford will be able to withstand this "punishment" handed out by Lopez as well as that handed out by other "classic burly low post bugs" JaVale McGee, Cody Zeller, Damian Jones, Whiteside, and Gobert. Cmon now. These are all players who are allergic to physical contact cmon now.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Sporting news article that discusses some scouts' take on the Cs offensive offense and some numbers here: http://www.sportingnews.com/us/nba/news/whats-wrong-with-celtics-offense-nba-coaches-scouts-weigh-in/3t17kt49579o11ipcjzpkdxj3. It also has some interesting number comparisons to this time last year (when they were 14-2 but won a few games they probably shouldn't have):

But consider what the Celtics’ offense looked like on this date last year, when the team had a 14-2 record even as a raft of new players were finding roles. It was averaging 104.5 points per 100 possessions, 19th in the NBA. The mid-November Celtics offense of 2017 looks an awful lot like the mid-November Celtics offense of 2018.

Despite concerns about Boston playing more selfish basketball, the Celtics do have a higher assist percentage (61.9 percent) than at this time last year. They turn the ball over fewer times (13.2 percent now to 14.8 percent then) and have a true shooting percentage of 53.6, a tick better than a year ago, when that number was 53.4 percent.

Maybe the biggest difference isn’t an offensive problem at all. It’s the rebounding. Boston’s rebound percentage was 53.2 in mid-November last year, and sits at 49.4 percent now. It’s worth noting, however, that the Celtics finished 2017-18 with a 50.4 rebounding percentage, which means that after Nov. 16 last season, the team’s rebounding percentage was just 49.7. That’s in line with the current numbers.

In other words, this team, offensively, is not much different than last year’s team a month into the season. The only difference is the record.​

 

[benhogan]

Brook Lopez hasn't stepped foot inside the 3-point line in 3 years. He has 140 FGA this year......106 have been 3's. I feel that somehow Horford will be able to withstand this "punishment" handed out by Lopez as well as that handed out by other "classic burly low post bugs" JaVale McGee, Cody Zeller, Damian Jones, Whiteside, and Gobert. Cmon now. These are all players who are allergic to physical contact cmon now.

Ha. Fair enough you've got me on Brook Lopez, didn't realize he had completely given up the post. Question, what's so awful about playing Horford as a big wing against Milwaukee? Why not have Al play Giannis and Baynes play Lopez? I think there is a small chance we see Baynes starting soon. What odds do you place on that?

PLUS our starting unit right now isn't even the best small ball lineup the team has, which is Irving, Tatum, Horford, MaMo, Hayward. I think benching Jaylen, while probably the best move, would bruise the kids' ego. I'd be inclined to have Hayward start on the bench and rotate Hayward, MaMo, Smart, Rozier, Theis into the game.

This has been my position since pre-season. Heck, I was livid when Ty Lue adjusted in the playoff series last year and started Thompson and Brad didn't immediately answer with Baynes (But was fine with Horford playing the 5 when Love started at the 5 - proof that it's always been situational for me).

 

[ifmanis5]

The rebounding numbers feel real. Their small ball starting five needs another big. Whether it's Morris, Baynes, or Theis, they need to experiment with more than just Al at the five. I wish they could find some more time for RWill, his energy is contagious.

 

[amarshal2]

The small ball lineup was predicated, at least in my mind, on having 5 guys hitting 3’s at a 38%+ rate. It would force teams to stay honest on the perimeter giving the Celtics all sorts of opportunities to make plays for guys to get to the basket.

Here’s current 3pt% (2017):
Kyrie: .419 (.408)
Tatum: .394 (.434)
Horford: .303 (.429)
Hayward: .298 (.398* *2016)
Brown: .273 (.395)

The shot selection is a problem but the 3pt shot selection isn’t. They’re not forcing up bad looks. The entire premise of the small ball lineup has failed based primarily on their inability to hit mostly open 3’s at a rate anywhere near their recent season marks.

With theee guys in the dumps just subbing in Morris won’t do the trick. They need to play different/better. Maybe Brad should just go big while they figure it out?
2pt %
Baynes: .429
Theis: .640
Al: .573

I’m not sold. Baynes is playing poorly too. I think I’d like to see more of..
Irving-Tatum-Morris-Thies-Horford
...just to see where it’s at. That lineup can rebound and defend if Tatum can stick with 2’s. Seems like it would have a chance to score too.

 

[amarshal2]

The small ball lineup was predicated, at least in my mind, on having 5 guys hitting 3’s at a 38%+ rate. It would force teams to stay honest on the perimeter giving the Celtics all sorts of opportunities to make plays for guys to get to the basket.

Here’s current 3pt% (2017):
Kyrie: .419 (.408)
Tatum: .394 (.434)
Horford: .303 (.429)
Hayward: .298 (.398* *2016)
Brown: .273 (.395)

The shot selection is a problem but the 3pt shot selection isn’t. They’re not forcing up bad looks. The entire premise of the small ball lineup has failed based primarily on their inability to hit mostly open 3’s at a rate anywhere near their recent season marks.

With theee guys in the dumps just subbing in Morris won’t do the trick. They need to play different/better. Maybe Brad should just go big while they figure it out?
2pt %
Baynes: .429
Theis: .640
Al: .573

I’m not sold. Baynes is playing poorly too. I think I’d like to see more of..
Irving-Tatum-Morris-Thies-Horford
...just to see where it’s at. That lineup can rebound and defend if Tatum can stick with 2’s. Seems like it would have a chance to score too.

Did a little digging on numbers to be sure I was right about the trade offs of shot selection, vs. 3p shooting %, vs 2p shooting %.

Bolded for tl;dr

At a team level, 3pt% is indeed the biggest factor.
Last year as a team the Celtics shot 30.4 3's a game at a .377 clip.
This year they're shooting 36.4 3's a game at a .349 clip.

If the Celtics maintained their 2017 3pt rate in 2018 they'd score approx. 3.1 more points a game (i'm ignoring offensive boards and the like)

The Celtics are only shooting .003% worse from 2 so even with many more attempts it's worth ~0.3 pts a game.

I looked at % of 2pts shot as a team to understand shot selection. Of their 2's, 40% are 0-3 feet this year vs. 41% last year. If there is a shot selection problem, it's in 3-10s vs. 16-3pt. 3-10's account for 22% of their shots this year vs. 27% last year. 16-3pt accounted for 17% last year vs. 22% this year. FG% on these shots isn't very revealing. They're shooting about the same on 0-3, much better on 3-10 and much worse on 16-3pt. So, too many bad long two's but I'm not sure how consequential these are in the long run.

At the individual player level there's a bit more story. Tatum is taking 29% of his 2pt shots this year from within 3 feet vs. 45% last year. That's bad. He's also shooting about 28% on 10-3pt shots this year vs. 43% last year.

For Jaylen the story is mostly that his FG% has collapsed. 42% from 2 this year vs. 51% last year. He's taking 31% of his shots from 0-3 vs. 36% last year but it's mostly stable.

In summary...
1) guys need to make their 3's above a high school rate
2) Tatum needs to drive to the hoop instead of taking long 2's
3) Jaylen needs to regain his shot from everywhere.

 

[benhogan]

Did a little digging on numbers to be sure I was right about the trade offs of shot selection, vs. 3p shooting %, vs 2p shooting %.

Bolded for tl;dr

At a team level, 3pt% is indeed the biggest factor.
Last year as a team the Celtics shot 30.4 3's a game at a .377 clip.
This year they're shooting 36.4 3's a game at a .349 clip.

If the Celtics maintained their 2017 3pt rate in 2018 they'd score approx. 3.1 more points a game (i'm ignoring offensive boards and the like)

The Celtics are only shooting .003% worse from 2 so even with many more attempts it's worth ~0.3 pts a game.

I looked at % of 2pts shot as a team to understand shot selection. Of their 2's, 40% are 0-3 feet this year vs. 41% last year. If there is a shot selection problem, it's in 3-10s vs. 16-3pt. 3-10's account for 22% of their shots this year vs. 27% last year. 16-3pt accounted for 17% last year vs. 22% this year. FG% on these shots isn't very revealing. They're shooting about the same on 0-3, much better on 3-10 and much worse on 16-3pt. So, too many bad long two's but I'm not sure how consequential these are in the long run.

At the individual player level there's a bit more story. Tatum is taking 29% of his 2pt shots this year from within 3 feet vs. 45% last year. That's bad. He's also shooting about 28% on 10-3pt shots this year vs. 43% last year.

For Jaylen the story is mostly that his FG% has collapsed. 42% from 2 this year vs. 51% last year. He's taking 31% of his shots from 0-3 vs. 36% last year but it's mostly stable.

In summary...
1) guys need to make their 3's above a high school rate
2) Tatum needs to drive to the hoop instead of taking long 2's
3) Jaylen needs to regain his shot from everywhere.

nice work amarshal2
So our eyes aren't lying to us:
1. Kobe infected JT, but that seems fixable with a better shot selection.
2. As Hayward heals he'll gain confidence/comfort on the court, the shooting will improve.
3. Brown has looked lost since pre-season, he seems the most affected by Gordon's return. Jaylen is forcing it on offense when he really should just focus on defense and let the game come to him. Watching some of the Utah highlights and JB loafed back on defense that led to slams.
4. Horford looks like the only man in the lane on defense when other team takes it to the hoop. Probably taxing on a 32yr old Al. He'll start shooting better, like last season, once Brad pairs him with a BIG (Theis/Baynes).

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Horford looks like the only man in the lane on defense when other team takes it to the hoop. Probably taxing on a 32yr old Al. He'll start shooting better, like last season, once Brad pairs him with a BIG (Theis/Baynes).

I know you've been thumping this particular drum, hard, but I'm starting to feel the beat. Hopefully, Brad will dance.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

I know you've been thumping this particular drum, hard, but I'm starting to feel the beat. Hopefully, Brad will dance.

I feel it too. The Baynes/Horford/JT/JB/Kyrie starting lineup won 16 games in a row last season. Maybe it’s time to go to that with Hayward the main playmaking option on the second unit.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

For Jaylen the story is mostly that his FG% has collapsed. 42% from 2 this year vs. 51% last year. He's taking 31% of his shots from 0-3 vs. 36% last year but it's mostly stable.

I found the basic concept on reddit so I won't take credit but in the history of the NBA, there have only been 26 players with multiple seasons of having FT% of .700 or below and 3P% of .350 and above (minimum 200 3PAs).

Spoiler: .700 FT% and .350 3P%

Bruce Bowen = 6
Chuck Person = 4
J.R. Smith = 4
Nick Anderson = 3
Omri Casspi = 3
Mickael Pietrus = 3
Jason Richardson = 3
Clifford Robinson = 3
Chucky Atkins = 2
Shane Battier = 2
Rasual Butler = 2
Jared Dudley = 2
Jordan Farmar = 2
Darrell Griffith = 2
Derek Harper = 2
Lindsey Hunter = 2
Damon Jones = 2
Raef LaFrentz = 2
Mike McGee = 2
Marcus Morris = 2
Smush Parker = 2
Austin Rivers = 2
James Robinson = 2
Brandon Rush = 2
Dion Waiters = 2
Metta World Peace = 2

Obviously, the list narrows down as one gets to JB's last season. But here's the really telling stat. There have been five NBA seasons where a player has a FT% <= .660 and has 3P% >= .375 with a minimum of 175 FT attempts and 100 3PAs.

No one has done this twice.

Here are the five seasons:

1 Jaylen Brown 2018
2 Andre Iguodala 2012
3 Mickael Pietrus 2007
4 Rodney Rogers 2000
5 Chris Webber 1997

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Did a little digging on numbers to be sure I was right about the trade offs of shot selection, vs. 3p shooting %, vs 2p shooting %.

Bolded for tl;dr

At a team level, 3pt% is indeed the biggest factor.
Last year as a team the Celtics shot 30.4 3's a game at a .377 clip.
This year they're shooting 36.4 3's a game at a .349 clip.

If the Celtics maintained their 2017 3pt rate in 2018 they'd score approx. 3.1 more points a game (i'm ignoring offensive boards and the like)

The Celtics are only shooting .003% worse from 2 so even with many more attempts it's worth ~0.3 pts a game.

I looked at % of 2pts shot as a team to understand shot selection. Of their 2's, 40% are 0-3 feet this year vs. 41% last year. If there is a shot selection problem, it's in 3-10s vs. 16-3pt. 3-10's account for 22% of their shots this year vs. 27% last year. 16-3pt accounted for 17% last year vs. 22% this year. FG% on these shots isn't very revealing. They're shooting about the same on 0-3, much better on 3-10 and much worse on 16-3pt. So, too many bad long two's but I'm not sure how consequential these are in the long run.

At the individual player level there's a bit more story. Tatum is taking 29% of his 2pt shots this year from within 3 feet vs. 45% last year. That's bad. He's also shooting about 28% on 10-3pt shots this year vs. 43% last year.

For Jaylen the story is mostly that his FG% has collapsed. 42% from 2 this year vs. 51% last year. He's taking 31% of his shots from 0-3 vs. 36% last year but it's mostly stable.

In summary...
1) guys need to make their 3's above a high school rate
2) Tatum needs to drive to the hoop instead of taking long 2's
3) Jaylen needs to regain his shot from everywhere.

This is great, thank you. Threes made should trend upward but I am concerned about Tatums newfound penchant for midrange twos. Small sample sizes aside, it certainly feels like a Kobe-influenced change to his game.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I feel it too. The Baynes/Horford/JT/JB/Kyrie starting lineup won 16 games in a row last season. Maybe it’s time to go to that with Hayward the main playmaking option on the second unit.

Brad mentioned at the time the 16 games in a row was fools gold and there were several games that they should have lost during that stretch. From the numbers I posted a bit back, it does not appear that the team is not playing markedly differently than during that time, even with a limited GH.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I know you've been thumping this particular drum, hard, but I'm starting to feel the beat. Hopefully, Brad will dance.

Brad is going to make lineup changes soon one would imagine. I don't expect having Horford chasing 2's, 3's and 4's out behind the arc is one of those moves to play arguably our worst rotation player with a starting unit needing to speed up play and not slow it down further. I can't fathom so many of you guys feeling this is a good idea on pretty much any level.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Brad is going to make lineup changes soon one would imagine. I don't expect having Horford chasing 2's, 3's and 4's out behind the arc is one of those moves to play arguably our worst rotation player with a starting unit needing to speed up play and not slow it down further. I can't fathom so many of you guys feeling this is a good idea on pretty much any level.

As LTP notes above, the Baynes/Horford/JT/JB/Kyrie starting lineup won 16 games in a row last season. That's not nothing.

 

[amarshal2]

Why the love for Baynes over Thies in a major role? What does Baynes do markedly better than Thies other than guard other big burly dudes (a role he will obviously maintain)? I’d rather have Thies out there on defensive switches and his athleticism has been a positive around the basket offensively. He had his best game of the season offensively right before he got hurt where they made a long run with him in there mixing it up.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Why the love for Baynes over Thies in a major role? What does Baynes do markedly better than Thies other than guard other big burly dudes (a role he will obviously maintain)? I’d rather have Thies out there on defensive switches and his athleticism has been a positive around the basket offensively. He had his best game of the season offensively right before he got hurt where they made a long run with him in there mixing it up.

Small sample size and all, but this year he has been markedly better than Theis at 3 point shooting in volume and percentage. 10-27 in 13 games for Baynes, 2-6 in 8 games for Theis.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Brad is going to make lineup changes soon one would imagine. I don't expect having Horford chasing 2's, 3's and 4's out behind the arc is one of those moves to play arguably our worst rotation player with a starting unit needing to speed up play and not slow it down further. I can't fathom so many of you guys feeling this is a good idea on pretty much any level.

I'd expect the move to be Morris in, Jaylen out.

Also Terry Rozier 2018-2019 is looking a lot like Terry Rozier 2016-2017. He's a career .376/.354/.769 shooter. I'm not sure we have enough information on him to say he'll improve on his .366/.339/.727 mark this year. It looks pretty much in line with his career. Even last year does, at .395/.381/.772. I think most of us expected his new baseline in 3 point shooting to be closer to the .381 mark than the .318 mark the year before. It may be closer to the middle.

Kinda glad he didn't want to sign a deal.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

As LTP notes above, the Baynes/Horford/JT/JB/Kyrie starting lineup won 16 games in a row last season. That's not nothing.

Correlation does not imply causation. Not to downplay a tremendous run but scheduling and luck, as others pointed out (including Brad) did play a major role in that streak. 9 of the 16 teams we beat were lottery teams and 4 of the wins were one possession games in the final 30 seconds. Aside from that, the game last year was not played at the same Pace as it is this season with transition defense so critical in defending and contesting 3-point shots even moreso than last year which is why I don't expect to see much of Horford/Baynes on the floor together as there are few instances where it doesn't weaken our team.

 

[lovegtm]

Correlation does not imply causation. Not to downplay a tremendous run but scheduling and luck, as others pointed out (including Brad) did play a major role in that streak. 9 of the 16 teams we beat were lottery teams and 4 of the wins were one possession games in the final 30 seconds. Aside from that, the game last year was not played at the same Pace as it is this season with transition defense so critical in defending and contesting 3-point shots even moreso than last year which is why I don't expect to see much of Horford/Baynes on the floor together as there are few instances where it doesn't weaken our team.

Yup, more Morris would be way better than more Baynes. I like the idea, especially in the regular season, of using Brown and Hayward as the leads of the 2nd unit, and playing Morris more with the starters. His new game is quite well suited for a complementary role, and he can bang physically without slowing the offense down.

 

[DJnVa]

This is great, thank you. Threes made should trend upward but I am concerned about Tatums newfound penchant for midrange twos. Small sample sizes aside, it certainly feels like a Kobe-influenced change to his game.

Anecdotally, it seems Tatum has begun to change this penchant for long 2s the last few games.

He's starting to hit his threes as well:
October: 28.6%
November: 46.5%

His TS% is up as well, from .513 to .572.

So, Tatum seems to be trending the way we want/need.

 

[lovegtm]

Anecdotally, it seems Tatum has begun to change this penchant for long 2s the last few games.

He's starting to hit his threes as well:
October: 28.6%
November: 46.5%

His TS% is up as well, from .513 to .572.

So, Tatum seems to be trending the way we want/need.

I saw an article (forget where) saying that the coaching staff is explicitly emphasizing cutting out his long 2s, but that it's a hard tendency for him to cut when he's in a more primary role. I'm not super worried about this in the medium to long term.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I saw an article (forget where) saying that the coaching staff is explicitly emphasizing cutting out his long 2s, but that it's a hard tendency for him to cut when he's in a more primary role. I'm not super worried about this in the medium to long term.

Only reason I'm semi concerned is because of his reputation in college as a mid range jump shooter. He's proven he can hit the 3, but he does take a lot of mid range shots.

 

[DJnVa]

Any place that breaks down shot distance month to month?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Any place that breaks down shot distance month to month?

NBA stats lets you filter by date: https://stats.nba.com/player/1628369/shooting/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&DateFrom=10/01/2018&DateTo=11/01/2018

 

[benhogan]

Why the love for Baynes over Thies in a major role? What does Baynes do markedly better than Thies other than guard other big burly dudes (a role he will obviously maintain)? I’d rather have Thies out there on defensive switches and his athleticism has been a positive around the basket offensively. He had his best game of the season offensively right before he got hurt where they made a long run with him in there mixing it up.

amarshal2, Baynes (who I slightly favor) and Theis are rather interchangeable, so starting Daniel at the 5 would also be a welcome change IMO. But once again it's situational for me, start either Baynes or Theis against a BIG. They're not going to shoot any worse then Jaylen (if he gets pulled), right? Plus Baynes/Theis will set pick/screens for our better offensive players, they will roll to the hoop for easier baskets, help on defense around the hoop, add tip outs and rebounds. It will also free up Horford to shoot over smaller wings from the 3pt line or post them up at the rim.

I do think Lovegtm is probably correct and Brad will go to MaMo in a starting role before he goes w/ Baynes or Theis. MaMo's size/shooting makes him a better choice than Jaylen for a starting role. MaMo/GH/KI/JT/AH is our best small ball lineup.

Let's face it the starting unit is offensively hot garbage, they haven't jelled at all. From Day 1 (preseason) it hasn't passed the eye test and statistically(91.1 offrtg), one of the least productive. Only those with green shaded glasses would continue to defend that unit. The good news is the season is very long and Hayward will improve. WBCD's post from Reddit is damning for Jaylen, I expected his FTs to take a bump up and that hasn't panned out. Taking Jaylen or Gordon out of the starting rotation for either Baynes, Theis or Morris will improve the team IMO. Like the dude at the Indian games, my drum beat continues

https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanced/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Let's face it the starting unit is offensively hot garbage, they haven't jelled at all. From Day 1 (preseason) it hasn't passed the eye test and statistically(91.1 offrtg), one of the least productive. Only those with green shaded glasses would continue to defend that unit. The good news is the season is very long and Hayward will improve. WBCD's post from Reddit is damning for Jaylen, I expected his FTs to take a bump up and that hasn't panned out. Taking Jaylen or Gordon out of the starting rotation for either Baynes, Theis or Morris will improve the team IMO. Like the dude at the Indian games, my drum beat continues

With respect to the bolded, here's a quote from Brad: "I don’t think much about starting. I know that all everybody wants to ask is about the first five minutes of the game and, in Boston, it shouldn’t matter who starts, it shouldn’t matter who plays, it shouldn’t matter who finishes, it matters if you win. That’s it." https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/stevens-not-interested-talk-lineup-change-he-just-wants-win

A couple of interesting stats from that article though about JB and GH not meshing with each other.

"What’s more, the Celtics have struggled whenever Brown and Hayward share the floor this season. Hayward’s offensive rating with Brown on the court is 92.5 and spikes to 109.4 when Brown is on the bench. In both instances, the defensive rating stays firm at 97. Hayward has a net rating of minus-4.6 with Brown, and plus-12.4 when he’s on the bench.


It’s similar results for Brown when Hayward is on the bench. His own offensive rating spikes to 107.3 with a net rating of plus-4.8."​

 

[amarshal2]

On cue, Theis led the team in +/- in 15 mins. I'd really like to see 25 mins on Wednesday. He should be playing a lot with Kyrie, Tatum, and Rozier (...and I guess future Hayward...the guys who can shoot from distance and create off the dribble, Theis' weaknesses).

PS -- In case anyone else needed a quick (3 min) reminder of what should be coming for Hayward...

 

[JCizzle]

On cue, Theis led the team in +/- in 15 mins. I'd really like to see 25 mins on Wednesday. He should be playing a lot with Kyrie, Tatum, and Rozier (...and I guess future Hayward...the guys who can shoot from distance and create off the dribble, Theis' weaknesses).

PS -- In case anyone else needed a quick (3 min) reminder of what should be coming for Hayward...

I'm more shocked by all the ball movement in the beginning of that clip rather than what Hayward looks like. I don't think this team has thrown the ball around like that more than once or twice this year.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I'm more shocked by all the ball movement in the beginning of that clip rather than what Hayward looks like. I don't think this team has thrown the ball around like that more than once or twice this year.

Hayward is never going to look like this in Boston as long as Kyrie and Tatum are here. It's a completely different system that is personnel dependent. He'll continue to be a (good) PNR/spot-up shooter here with much less off the ball movement until the personnel around him changes.

 

[the moops]

Quite a few of those highlights are him running the PNR with Gobert. No reason those cant happen with Horford

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Quite a few of those highlights are him running the PNR with Gobert. No reason those cant happen with Horford

I agree on that part. I was referring to the off ball activity and ball movement each of which are stymied when the ball is in the hands of Kyrie and even Tatum. It's just the way our roster is right now with the ball in Kyrie's hands.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

It's also clear watching that clip that Hayward has a long way to go before he can be the impact player he was two years ago. He doesn't seem close to having the quickness and explosion that he had then.

 

[Big John]

Hayward is never going to look like this in Boston as long as Kyrie and Tatum are here. It's a completely different system that is personnel dependent. He'll continue to be a (good) PNR/spot-up shooter here with much less off the ball movement until the personnel around him changes.

And Tatum is never going to be the Tatum we saw last year with Kyrie and Hayward here-- and let's not even get into the adverse effects on Jalen Brown and Terry Rozier.

Might as well get used to the losing because Kyrie will likely be a Celtic for the next 5 1/2 years. He's an immense talent who is not a good fit for this roster. It could very well turn out to be Oklahoma City redux.

 

[DJnVa]

I can't believe this website is free.

Wow.