Celtics vs. the Lebronaires
- Thread starter DJnVa
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I don’t know. This might cause LeBron to go 111% instead of 110%.
You have to look at the team level results too. Semi defending LeBron led to the Cavs scoring 1.27 points per possession. Brown and Horford are the guys who jump out as the best options on that list. Morris is probably on that list too based on his history of being effective. Semi will probably still get some chances, but his results during the season aren't a basis for optimism about his effectiveness.
I’d love to see Smart in Lebron’s grill hard and early and see if you can get him to react or at least expend energy on it. If LeBron brings ball up, pressure 94 feet. Smart will get in foul trouble, but it will take waves of guys anyway...part of the strategy has to be working him really hard both ways.
Tied to that, would be great to have whoever LeBron is guarding be very active—cutting, taking his man into picks.
Tied to that, would be great to have whoever LeBron is guarding be very active—cutting, taking his man into picks.
While I agree with your take on what the team results are saying - I think it is still important that Semi gets more than "some chances" for the reasons people are talking about. Spreading fouls around, giving others a break from the burden of guarding him, force him to change his approach when attacking (even if momentarily, and I have no illusions about it being some great unknown for James), and force James to expend more energy while being bumped/bodied by a more physical "wall" of a defender. I'd be shocked if Semi isn't given an opportunity to be the primary defender on James to see if he is up to the task. And by up to it, I mean survive while keeping James on whatever PPG pace Brad deems acceptable while freeing everyone else up to do their thing.
I say some chances because Semi shouldn't be playing more that 10 minutes or so a game. We have an 8 man rotation, counting Semi, which is shallow, but 6 of those guys are 30+ mpg players.
A fairly realistic set of mpg expectations for this roster is:
Horford: 36 MPG
Tatum: 36 MPG
Rozier: 38 MPG
Brown: 35 MPG
Smart: 35 MPG
Morris: 32 MPG
Baynes: 20 MPG
That adds up 232 mpg, leaving 8 for Semi. Now, you could quibble around the margins with these numbers (I'm projecting Brown and Smart over their playoff averages by a decent amount because those are weighed down by injury and I've ramped up Morris' minutes based on matchup expectations, I'm also not giving Monroe any minutes and I'm not accounting for the impactic the more leasurely schedule might have on individual minutes. For example, I could see game 2 seeing a lot of the core guys up to 40+ minutes given the extended break after.
When Semi is in the game, I expect him to be asked to defend Lebron. But I don't expect him to see the extended run he was getting against Milwaukee because Lebron and the Cavs will exploit him in a manner the Bucks couldn't.
I also think it's more we get forced into a true 7 man rotation than that Semi ends up playing a major role in the series.
The problem with starting Semi is that he's a true zero on offense. On offense, the biggest advantage the Celtics have against Cleveland is the ability to exploit mismatches. For example, Korver is going to have to guard someone he can't handle, and the Celtics offense will target him the way they targeted Belinelli and Reddick in the Sixers series. Unless they have Semi on the floor. Then Korver will just gaurd Semi, and the Celtics lose a key mismatch. If there are situations where they want LeBron to save energy on the defensive end, he may guard Semi if he's on the floor.
I'll be surprised if Semi sees anything more than situational/spot minutes here and there unless the C's lineup is thinned by more inuries or foul trouble.
He’s got a brother with the Wiz who could have, and maybe did, tell him that LeBron dropped 57 in a game in November. After typical Wiz mouth running previous spring that was truly comical — “Cavs are afraid of us.”
This does not fall in that category, but generally the less said, the better.
I still think this thread should have been titled something like "2018 ECF: The Days Of Whine And Rozier"
This thread is sad because it does not account for both A. the Celtics switch and B. the Cavs try to get their opponent to switch (and are very good at it!). I mean it's like nobody here watched last year.
That said, the Celtics are obviously in a better position this year when they switch than they were last year. But, this whole idea of a Celtic player "guarding" Lebron or anyone else is nonsense.
That said, the Celtics are obviously in a better position this year when they switch than they were last year. But, this whole idea of a Celtic player "guarding" Lebron or anyone else is nonsense.
Semi Nal moment
Riboflav, don't get too down in the mouth, everyone here realizes that we rotate on defense and the Cavs/Lebron immediately PnR in their halfcourt offense to get the matchup they desire.
Riboflav, don't get too down in the mouth, everyone here realizes that we rotate on defense and the Cavs/Lebron immediately PnR in their halfcourt offense to get the matchup they desire.
Is it? Because I don't think I've seen one post that says the Celtics can or will stop LeBron. On the other hand, I think we've tried to figure out which combinations Brad will use to mitigate, or at least minimize, the damage from the Cavs switches.
However regarding LeBron, I think most posters here realize that you aren't going to stop or even slow him. At the same time, the strategy of making him work harder to get his while limiting the damage he does in drawing in a defense and kicking it to his teammates seems like a feasible strategy for a team with the right defensive approach and personnel.
Great piece from Athletic Alchemy (sort of the alt. Coach Nick) on the "Harden Rules" — posted here as I think a lot of the Harden-slowing strategies he brings up apply really well to stopping LeBron, the league's other unstoppable force in isolation. The overall goal in both cases is to "empty his tank," break his will, and think of each possession not as win/lose propositions but as battles in a larger war of attrition. When LeBron has been beaten down physically — the ends of the 2014 and 2015 finals come to mind — it's in large part because he has ultimately gassed out. My sense is that if the Cs are gonna win the series, they're gonna need to try to put his 33.5 year-old body through the wringer.
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Practically speaking, we'll know pretty early if this is the strategy the Cs are going for. If it is, we'll see a lot of PnR defense with only the two primary defenders, and mostly defending LeBron solo in isolation. On offense, we'd see the Celtics actively targeting LeBron to get him to expend energy.
Unlike Giannis and Simmons, LeBron can just shoot over Semi, which is Semi's biggest flaw as a defender.
At the end of the day, I think the Celtics can live with Lebron as a jump shooter. He's way better than Giannis as a shooter, but it's still better to have him doing that than just about anything else he might do.
Semi's problem is on offense, where he will make it much hard for the Celtics to target mismatches.
I'd like to say Jaylen on LeBron and don't think Smart would fair to well.
I think Semi could go either way, but if LeBron's shot is falling, it will be ugly.
I think Semi could go either way, but if LeBron's shot is falling, it will be ugly.
If LBJ can hit enough 18 footers to beat BOS, you tip your hat to him and say good luck.
I too think Jaylen is the best option on LeBron. He can disappear for stretches, but due to his hyper competitive nature and his serious confidence this post season, I think he sticks to LeBron like glue. He's also tall enough and has the wingspan to contest the jab step and fall away. Marcus and Semi, despite being absolute bulldogs and capable of great things in post ups when punching above their weight class and guarding up, are either a) too short (Marcus) or b) don't get their hands up (Semi) to be effective 1-on-1, which is how Brad has already indicated he'll play him.
Jaylen would fit Athletic Alchemy's recommended plan: in the face of a guy who's too strong for quick defenders and too quick for strong defenders, opt for the quicker defenders (and use your "chi," lol).
Tick, tick, tick...
Not sure I've ever seen a pair of conference championships where the Game Ones seemed so momentous. In both cases it feels like a convincing win by the visitors could effectively be a TKO, whereas a solid win by the home team could portend an epic battle.
Tick, tick, tick...
Not sure I've ever seen a pair of conference championships where the Game Ones seemed so momentous. In both cases it feels like a convincing win by the visitors could effectively be a TKO, whereas a solid win by the home team could portend an epic battle.
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It's going to be a rotating cast of characters on Lebron, to minimize the risk of anyone fouling out.
Yeah, and Semi isn't just bad at contesting jumpers, he's awful at contesting around the rim. He doesn't elevate. Like ever.
You have to against Lebron or he's going to steamroll you.
Semi's only chance is to stay in front of him and force jumpers. I really really really doubt he can do that, since almost no one can, but I'm sure he'll get time on the floor where he'll have a chance.
the cavs try to get the defense to switch, and the celtics are one of the most switch-heavy teams in the league. lebron is going to get his against the entire lineup.
My thoughts exactly, which is why Semi seems like a bad idea here; do you really want him matched up against Korver or Love? Seems like something the Cavaliers would take advantage of.
No one saw this coming but JR's minutes predictions (in blue) were pretty insightful. But seriously, Brown, Morris, Horford, (Love) and Tatum all outscored Lebron? Really?
It just goes to show you that if you play games at times that people in Europe can watch good things happen...
Yeah I was worried about bulletin board material but as long as he shows up like he did he can talk all he wants.
He seems like a huge mismatch this series.. he seemed to be far less active than Reddick game one on the offensive end. I’m sure we’ll hear from him on the offensive end but he can’t guard anyone on the Celts
And Al talking about a bunch of stuff, including the young guys: http://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/23486878
Match-ups are what matters in the NBA. The reality is that if the C's can keep up their defense of the rest of the Cavs while simply trying to make LeBron work, they should advance.
Cleveland, with their poor defense, also does not match up well with Boston's diversified offense. In some ways, the injury to Kyrie may end up being a blessing in this series as Lue/LeBron are going to struggle with whom to focus on for defense. The Cavs really don't have anyone who can be considered a defensive stopper beyond James. Hood isn't that guy, Green isn't either. And if they want to keep Clarkson on the floor for his on-again-off-again offense good luck - he has been good from deep since joining the Cavs but his career numbers suggest its an aberration.
That said, money has been lost and tears have been shed over LeBron overcoming long odds to beat an opponent. We should expect nothing different this time but if Boston continues to play stout defense and moves the ball around on offense, they should win this series.
Cleveland, with their poor defense, also does not match up well with Boston's diversified offense. In some ways, the injury to Kyrie may end up being a blessing in this series as Lue/LeBron are going to struggle with whom to focus on for defense. The Cavs really don't have anyone who can be considered a defensive stopper beyond James. Hood isn't that guy, Green isn't either. And if they want to keep Clarkson on the floor for his on-again-off-again offense good luck - he has been good from deep since joining the Cavs but his career numbers suggest its an aberration.
That said, money has been lost and tears have been shed over LeBron overcoming long odds to beat an opponent. We should expect nothing different this time but if Boston continues to play stout defense and moves the ball around on offense, they should win this series.
Now the adjustments will begin. Brad needs to counter what he did today because Cleveland will. My guess is that it’s the same lineup for Cavs but they’ll get LeBron in the post like Philly did.
I kind of feel like Love needs to get in the post.. he didn’t shoot well from the outside tonite but he also let Horford switch a lot without taking any advantage of that.. was guarded by Brown, Tatum? And maybe even Rozier at times? He’s wasting his size this series outside and getting in the way of Korver and Smith from outside.. although I’ve always thought Smith is the consummate underperformer
If you were going to point to any one guy who was the key to the game it would be Morris for me. Brown and Horford next up.
I feel like Horford was huge early.. he took advantage of the Love matchup and got a lot of rbs
Edit: or basically what you said.