Crap performance and depth (starting pitching)

[smastroyin]

The Joe Kelly terrible start and optioning kind of already got this discussion going, but I was intending to start a second depth thread to focus on the pitching, where the depth has really been done in by terrible performance as opposed to the injuries that have erased the corner IF/OF depth.

Coming into the season, the Red Sox had 7-9 legitimate (depending on how you definte legitimate) options for starting pitchers. I'll put them in order of pre-season expectation not result.

The presumptive ace:

Price. He has performed poorly compared to expectation, but the Red Sox really need him to step up and start delivering bullpen rest days and stealing the occasional game where the offense doesn't show. Say what you will about his FIP and luck, so far his results have not been great. Hopefully those things that to even out and they get the results they need.

The middle of the rotation guys:

Rodriguez. The injury set him back and also probably tempers expectation even when he does pitch this year. Has not been too great in Pawtucket and I honestly think if Buchholz and Kelly were holding it together even to be mediocre they would let him get stronger in AAA as opposed to with the Red Sox.

Porcello. Porcello has been much better this year out of the gate than he was last year. However, he has been on something of a downward trend but he's still the presumptive number 2.

Buchholz. Probably the most maddening pitcher in my Red Sox fandom. It's just hard to believe he has so much trouble putting it together most of the time, when he is so brilliant the other times, and not just for a start or two, but 10-20 game stretches. Anyway, we all know the Red Sox have gotten crap Buchholz this year, including a well earned demotion to the bullpen. His failings have been somewhat mitigated by Wright (see below). But at some point, he or one of the other guys are going to have to step it up.

The depth and/or hope for a leap guys:

Kelly. We all want him to be better, we all like to cherry pick times that he could be better, but similarly to Buchholz he just has too much trouble putting it together consistently. Unlike Buchholz he has never really demonstrated dominance (even in the minors) or strung together great starts for more than a month. I am really down on him personally but I understand why people are tantalized.

Owens. Owens has completely lost the strike zone this year, with a 9.5 BB/9 in the majors and a 6.1 in Pawtucket. He is also giving up HR at a higher pace than he ever has, and basically this has, so far, been a lost season for him. You hope that he will turn it around but you have to let him do it in Pawtucket unless there is an emergency.

Wright. The savior thus far. Not much to say here other than let's hope he can keep it up. And of course, with the knuckler who knows.

Johnson. Having an even worse season than Owens. Has also lost the strike zone (6.0 BB/9) and is getting hit around a bit when he's been in it. Currently inactive dealing with anxiety stemming from his carjacking over the winter. Hopefully he can get himself into a good state of mind (for his own sake and the Red Sox) and make a case for promotion this year.

Elias. I think we probably talked ourselves into thinking he was better than he is. He's always had some command issues and they are problematic this year. He's also been getting hit around a bit. Not sure I would really count on him for much.

By my count, despite the great record, the pitching has been largely a disaster to this point. We are two months in, and only two guys (Porcello and Wright) have met or exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, Price has been good not great, but we hope he will at least pitch to his normal level going forward, and we also maintain some hope for Rodriguez. So, at the top things don't look horrible. But, the back end has been an unmitigated dumpster fire and it unfortunately has stretched all through the depth. Noone surprising in Pawtucket has stepped forward (ok O'Sullivan but we saw what he looked like in the majors).

Because of the depth problem, the rotation remains the biggest threat to a successful season. Porcello shows a few too many signs of cracking and I can't trust Wright to remain ace level for the full season. Some of that slack will be taken up by Price and we hope Rodriguez, but if any of these four guys gets injured or performs poorly the Sox season could be undermined even with the exceptional offense.

 

[mikeford]

They really need to make a deal to add another starter. Even if its a 4th starter type like Wade Miley was last year who isn't great, gives up 4-5 runs a game but eats innings. With this offense, that's all they'll need most of the time, I figure.

The way all the top AAA guys have shit the bed this year really makes me question the coaching going on down there. I know Johnson has mitigating circumstances due to life outside baseball but Elias and Owens should be better than they have been. Owens has at least proven in the organization that he CAN be better so my first glance goes to the coaching being unable to get these guys straightened out. Those walk numbers for all of them are crazy high.

 

[mwonow]

Thanks for this. I think a lot of us who were fans through the 70s and 80s were having flashbacks last night, to the many teams that could hit but not stop the other team from scoring. In those days, the Sox were also really S L O W, so the poor run prevention could be at least partially ascribed to weak ability to get to balls before they bounced/stopped rolling. But this year's team covers a lot of ground, so the problems center (as you say) on the pitching.

One thing that the 70s/80s teams had in common - they could be a lot of fun to watch, and they won games, but they didn't win championships. I think your review above shows that the current squad needs starting pitching if they're going to get through the two-thirds of the schedule that is still ahead...

Lastly, re: Kelly, I watched him in Toronto last week. He gives up consistently hard contact, which negates the team speed in the field (it's hard to track down rockets!). I'm with you in being "down on him personally." Certainly, he isn't the answer to any question that I'd care to ask about how the Sox will build on April/May to close out the year in the WS.

 

[phenweigh]

Wright. The savior thus far. Not much to say here other than let's hope he can keep it up. And of course, with the knuckler who knows.

Because of the depth problem, the rotation remains the biggest threat to a successful season. Porcello shows a few too many signs of cracking and I can't trust Wright to remain ace level for the full season. Some of that slack will be taken up by Price and we hope Rodriguez, but if any of these four guys gets injured or performs poorly the Sox season could be undermined even with the exceptional offense.

Not picking on you specifically, because the idea that knuckleball pitchers are less trustworthy than "normal" pitchers seems to be accepted truth. Every pitcher has performance variability and I don’t think knucklers make pitchers particularly less reliable. But maybe you are aware of a study that I don’t know about.

I agree that we shouldn’t expect Wright to remain at ace level performance, but that is because it’s a rather ridiculous expectation for any pitcher except those that have already shown ace performance over multiple seasons. That’s why it’s reasonable to expect improvement from Price.

I fully agree with your last paragraph, and for that reason I think a trade for a reliable starter as the trade deadline approaches becomes more likely with each turn through the rotation.

 

[lexrageorge]

They really need to make a deal to add another starter. Even if its a 4th starter type like Wade Miley was last year who isn't great, gives up 4-5 runs a game but eats innings. With this offense, that's all they'll need most of the time, I figure.

The way all the top AAA guys have shit the bed this year really makes me question the coaching going on down there. I know Johnson has mitigating circumstances due to life outside baseball but Elias and Owens should be better than they have been. Owens has at least proven in the organization that he CAN be better so my first glance goes to the coaching being unable to get these guys straightened out. Those walk numbers for all of them are crazy high.

Owens fastball tops out at 88mph. That's either due to his native ability, or an injury. Either way, I doubt it's a coaching issue. The other reality is that in this day and age there are very few pitchers that can get away with an 88 mph fastball.

The pitching depth in the Sox minor league system in general is very thin. So I do believe they will need to add a starter. But it will be expen$ive, so they will need to rely on guys like Price and Ed Rod to come through the rest of the way. Good news is that Price's 0.331 BABIP is both out of his control and unlikely to continue, so there is reason for optimism in their being able to field at least 3 above average starters the rest of the way. For all the angst here, the Sox pitching has been a hair above league average this year, which is not that different from 2013.

 

[Saints Rest]

Somewhere else (the LF thread, perhaps), I opined that we will end up needing a Jake Peavy/Ryan Dempster type. A solid veteran 4th starter who can be relied on to eat innings and churn out a bunch of 6-7IP, 3-4 ER games. James Shields seems like the obvious target.

 

[simplicio]

Except Shield's career Fenway ERA is 5.42, and that's from before he went to San Diego and all his peripherals declined. So you're likely looking at churning out a bunch 4-5IP, 5-6 ER games, and that's what we already have Sean O'Sullivan for; no need to throw away 20 million/yr to get another guy like that.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Somewhere else (the LF thread, perhaps), I opined that we will end up needing a Jake Peavy/Ryan Dempster type. A solid veteran 4th starter who can be relied on to eat innings and churn out a bunch of 6-7IP, 3-4 ER games. James Shields seems like the obvious target.

No need to acquire anyone, since you've described exactly what Clay Buchholz did from mid-April to earn his demotion.

4/18 - 6.2 IP, 0 ER
4/23 - 5.2 IP, 5 ER
4/28 - 6.1 IP, 5 ER
5/4 -- 7.0 IP, 2 ER
5/9 -- 5.0 IP, 4 ER
5/14 - 6.0 IP, 5 ER
5/20 - 6.0 IP, 3 ER
5/24 - 5.0 IP, 6 ER
AVG - 6.0 IP, 3.75 ER

If that's what the Sox need -- and it may actually be -- they've already got it.

 

[nvalvo]

Somewhere else (the LF thread, perhaps), I opined that we will end up needing a Jake Peavy/Ryan Dempster type. A solid veteran 4th starter who can be relied on to eat innings and churn out a bunch of 6-7IP, 3-4 ER games. James Shields seems like the obvious target.

Well, Shields is probably fairly easily available after ownership chewed him out by name on the radio, but ownership chewed him out after a 2 IP, 10 ER performance, so...

 

[glennhoffmania]

The starting pitching has clearly been an issue. But I'm trying to look at the bright side. What other contending AL teams have a better rotation?

Baltimore: Jimenez, Gausman, Wright, Tillman, and an injured Gallardo
Toronto: Stroman, Dickey, Happ, Sanchez and Estrada
KC: Ventura, Volquez, Kennedy, Duffy and Young
Cleveland: Kluber, Salazar, Tomlin, Bauer, and Carrasco
Chicago: Sale, Quintana, Latos, Rodon and Gonzalez
Texas: Hamels, Holland, Lewis, Perez and Darvish
Seattle: Iwakuma, Walker, Miley, Karns and an injured Felix

I'd love to have Chicago's top two, or the depth of Toronto and possibly Cleveland, or Texas' wild card with Darvish. But is Price, Porcello, Wright, Rodriguez and whatever they can get out of Buchholz, Kelly, Owens and others not sufficient, especially considering the offensive advantage Boston seemingly has over all of these teams? Even if they don't acquire another starter I still like their chances.

 

[smastroyin]

Yeah, I framed it more as a depth issue because the problem is not that they are in terrible shape now, but that if one of those top four falls to performance or injury, they really have not much to step in.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Sure, I totally agree with that and recognize that they don't have much margin for error. I'm not as educated about the depth of the other teams I mentioned so maybe the Sox are worse off than it appears. I just wanted to look at everyone's top five as of today for comparison. Your point is completely valid though.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Except Shield's career Fenway ERA is 5.42, and that's from before he went to San Diego and all his peripherals declined. So you're likely looking at churning out a bunch 4-5IP, 5-6 ER games, and that's what we already have Sean O'Sullivan for; no need to throw away 20 million/yr to get another guy like that.

About Shields in Fenway:
Most of Shields' problems in Fenway came in 2008-2010. In those 3 years, he threw 33.2 innings at Fenway, and allowed 33 earned runs and 8 HRs there.

2009 and especially 2010 were also his worst years of his career, which might have something to do with those struggles.

But in the last 5 years, Shields has pitched 35 innings at Fenway, allowing 11 ER and 3 HR, for a 2.83 ERA.

And 7 of those 11 ER and 2 of the 3 HR came in 15 IP in 2011.

In the last 4 years, he's thrown 20 IP at Fenway, allowing 4 ER and 1 HR.

These ballpark splits are all small sample sizes, and his last 5 years sample is even smaller. But he hasn't been terrible at Fenway since 2010.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

No need to acquire anyone, since you've described exactly what Clay Buchholz did from mid-April to earn his demotion.

4/18 - 6.2 IP, 0 ER
4/23 - 5.2 IP, 5 ER
4/28 - 6.1 IP, 5 ER
5/4 -- 7.0 IP, 2 ER
5/9 -- 5.0 IP, 4 ER
5/14 - 6.0 IP, 5 ER
5/20 - 6.0 IP, 3 ER
5/24 - 5.0 IP, 6 ER
AVG - 6.0 IP, 3.75 ER

If that's what the Sox need -- and it may actually be -- they've already got it.

Not quite. His median ER allowed was 4.5 in that stretch, and if you don't cherry pick his first two starts it's 5 (with fewer than 6 innings a start, not quite "6-7"). This mythical 7 inning guy with a 5.14 ERA would certainly be an improvement.

 

[Devizier]

Here's the Red Sox rotation (as currently constituted) and their rest-of-season FIP projection by ZiPS and Steamer:

David Price (3.00 ZiPS, 3.22 Steamer)
Rick Porcello (3.79 ZiPS, 3.71 Steamer )
Eduardo Rodriguez (3.66 ZiPS, 4.21 Steamer)
Stephen Wright (4.12 ZiPS, 4.35 Steamer)

Roenis Elias (4.36 ZiPS, 4.30 Steamer)
Clay Buchholz (4.13 ZiPS, 4.10 Steamer)
Joe Kelly (4.24 ZiPS, 4.02 Steamer)

Projections need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but they can provide an interesting baseline for comparison. For example:

James Shields (3.73 ZiPS, 3.93 Steamer) would be projected as the Red Sox number three starter if they were to trade for him, which sounds reasonable.

On the other hand, someone like Doug Fister (currently sporting a 3.86 ERA) would be projected as the Red Sox's worst starter (4.35 ZiPS, 4.54 Steamer).

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Not quite. His median ER allowed was 4.5 in that stretch, and if you don't cherry pick his first two starts it's 5 (with fewer than 6 innings a start, not quite "6-7"). This mythical 7 inning guy with a 5.14 ERA would certainly be an improvement.

Oh, FFS.

If you're so concerned about the statistical relevancy of those 10 starts, or cherry picking, or whatever, why don't you regress those results for average expectancies per contact event, and see how different it comes out. There's a reason Zips and Steamer project Buchholz to a better rest-of-season than Stephen Wright. Better than your mythical 5.14 ERA pitcher, too.

My point wasn't that I want Clay Buchholz in the rotation, or that he's been particularly good. Certainly not that I'd enjoy watching him pitch more. Rather, my point is that trading for someone likely to provide similar performance to what Clay Buchholz might reasonably be expected to provide himself, going forward, is stupid. Because as bad as Clay has been this year, he's close to what was asked for above.

If all the team needs is a 5th starter able to eat a reasonable amount of innings, then Buchholz already does that. Just like Derek Lowe did in 2004. They may all too often be bad innings, and the team is likely to lose just about as often as they win, and as a fan you expect better because he used to be better, but the baton still gets passed back to the top of the rotation when they're over.

The real issue is that people seem to want more than SP #4-5 quality starts from Clay Buchholz, even while they say they don't need more than that.

 

[alwyn96]

If we want to really stretch what we might consider potential depth in the org, there's also Cuevas, who's pitched probably the least poorly of the AAA starters. An even bigger stretch is 25 year old Justin Haley, who's sporting a 2.49 ERA, 8.7k/9, 3.0BB/9 in AA. He had a pretty terrible year last year, but he'd been decent before that. I think Workman could theoretically be back at some point later this year, but that's certainly nothing to count on. Hopefully Boston doesn't have to start any of those guys.

 

[Montana Fan]

My sleeper is Aaron Wilkerson. Since the Sox signed him out of an independent league he's quickly progressed to AAA. He's not above average at anything but has a good WHIP and K ratios.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=658792#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

 

[johnnywayback]

The starting pitching has clearly been an issue. But I'm trying to look at the bright side. What other contending AL teams have a better rotation?

Baltimore: Jimenez, Gausman, Wright, Tillman, and an injured Gallardo
Toronto: Stroman, Dickey, Happ, Sanchez and Estrada
KC: Ventura, Volquez, Kennedy, Duffy and Young
Cleveland: Kluber, Salazar, Tomlin, Bauer, and Carrasco
Chicago: Sale, Quintana, Latos, Rodon and Gonzalez
Texas: Hamels, Holland, Lewis, Perez and Darvish
Seattle: Iwakuma, Walker, Miley, Karns and an injured Felix

I'd love to have Chicago's top two, or the depth of Toronto and possibly Cleveland, or Texas' wild card with Darvish. But is Price, Porcello, Wright, Rodriguez and whatever they can get out of Buchholz, Kelly, Owens and others not sufficient, especially considering the offensive advantage Boston seemingly has over all of these teams? Even if they don't acquire another starter I still like their chances.

Exactly. I would love for the rotation to be a strength. Combined with our dominant offense and our strong bullpen, that would be one hell of a team! What we have is four quality starters and a few disappointing/inconsistent candidates for the fifth spot, with some reason to hope that one of them might emerge as a fifth quality starter. That's adequate. Is it as good as having five or six or seven quality starters? Of course not. Is it a crisis? No. This team is plenty good enough to contend on the strength of its actual strengths, even if the rotation isn't one of them.

Obviously, if there's an injury to one of the top four, or if we continue not to get anything out of Kelly/Buchholz/Owens/Elias, we may want to add someone at the trade deadline. But the idea of making a panic move now, whether it's for whatever's left of Wayback James Shields or for some other "6-7 IP, 3-4 ER" guy (3.5 ER in 6.5 IP is a 4.85 ERA, btw), seems extremely silly.

 

[phenweigh]

My sleeper is Aaron Wilkerson. Since the Sox signed him out of an independent league he's quickly progressed to AAA. He's not above average at anything but has a good WHIP and K ratios.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=658792#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

Interesting! He seems to be the anti Joe Kelly ... not much velocity but good command.

http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/06/former-indy-leaguer-aaron-wilkerson.html

 

[AB in DC]

What we have is four quality starters and

Though, really, it's two quality starters and two young'uns with SSS

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Go get Rich Hill, Julio Teheran, or Dan Straily for the rotation, plus a reliever or two. Give up what you need to get those guys - we're talking about an elite offense, capable of putting up 5-7 runs a night easily - don't squander that with a shit rotation and bullpen.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I wouldn't count on that 5-7 runs over the season.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

I wouldn't count on that 5-7 runs over the season.

Barring injuries, why the hell not? They're already a third of the way there.

What's leading you to believe they'll regress? There's not much in terms of flukiness going on with the numbers.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I think that over the course of a season players peak and dip. Right now most hitters are peaking together. At some point there's a possibility they'll slump together. Hopefully when that happens the pitching will be on a roll. I hope like hell these guys are all the types of hitters that will have these stats come season's end. It's possible that we're seeing reality and the run scoring will hold up. Fingers crossed.

My main point is that you can't count on 5 runs a game to mask poor pitching. We lived through that in the fun but non-title years.

 

[strek1]

I think that over the course of a season players peak and dip. Right now most hitters are peaking together. At some point there's a possibility they'll slump together. Hopefully when that happens the pitching will be on a roll. I hope like hell these guys are all the types of hitters that will have these stats come season's end. It's possible that we're seeing reality and the run scoring will hold up. Fingers crossed.

My main point is that you can't count on 5 runs a game to mask poor pitching. We lived through that in the fun but non-title years.

That's the main point of the OP too. That's why he's advocating getting better pitching. And by the way, Hanley certainly isn't "peaking" and Holt isn't even there. There are still cards that haven't been played.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I should probably stop posting late at night after a bottle of wine.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Barring injuries, why the hell not? They're already a third of the way there.

What's leading you to believe they'll regress? There's not much in terms of flukiness going on with the numbers.

Not unless you think that a team BABIP of .341 is just a wee bit fluky. Yes, Fenway gooses BABIP, and yes, this team is young and fast and features several players who hit the ball hard on a line on a regular basis, so it should have a high BABIP. But it seems pretty safe to assume it's going to be lower for the rest of the year than it's been so far. Red Sox team BABIPs for the previous five years: .305, .297, .329, .301, .314. That .329 mark belonged to the 2013 team, which, as you may recall, enjoyed some pretty outrageous good fortune on balls in play (that sound you hear in the background is Mike Carp emitting a nostalgic sigh).

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Go get Rich Hill, Julio Teheran, or Dan Straily for the rotation, plus a reliever or two. Give up what you need to get those guys - we're talking about an elite offense, capable of putting up 5-7 runs a night easily - don't squander that with a shit rotation and bullpen.

If you could get a CC Sabathia by giving up a Matt LaPorta, sure. Make that trade for a difference-maker right now. But how do you convince the Mets they've got enough pitching to swap Harvey out for a package headlined by Swihart and Barnes?

All the names being floated as targets at this moment in time are Jeff Suppan types, and trying to pick one up for just prospects means losing at least one of Moncada or Benintendi. That's too much to lose to "upgrade" to mediocre-with-a-chance-of-bad.

Two frustrating series and a 3-4 record against two of the more potent offenses in the AL doesn't change that.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Whether it's 5-7 runs per game or something less (or even greater), the core of Ortiz, Mookie, Boegarts, Bradley, Shaw and Ramirez give the Sox an offense that enables them to win the division if they get any semblance of pitching.

It's also true that they could probably bash their way to the post-season with pitching that remains as it's been. It will be harder that way, but it's possible. As of now, they lead the division with less than mediocre pitching, and despite the inconvenient fact that they play only 22 of the last 63 at home, it's not hard to imagine that them finishing the season on top of the AL East.

But it's not a particularly novel thought to suggest that this kind of pitching will doom them in the post-season. As many have observed, the Cubs rotation -- if they made it as far as the WS along with Chicago -- would have a decided advantage in games not started by Price and Wright (and that's even assuming that both are pitching well in October).

DD has some work to do. In truth, his team is still largely Theo/Ben's. For it to win in October, he's going to have to put an even greater stamp on it, and I hope he doesn't wait all the way to the August 1 deadline to do that.

 

[Maximus]

Carl Willis needs to be held more accountable as a pitching coach for this staff. Nieves was fired after a month last year. Willis hasn't been able to add value to Buch, Kelly, Owens, etc.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Carl Willis needs to be held more accountable as a pitching coach for this staff. Nieves was fired after a month last year. Willis hasn't been able to add value to Buch, Kelly, Owens, etc.

Kelly was definitely better in the second half of last year. Porcello has been better. Wright has been better. Barnes has sort of been better. I don't know if Willis is any good or not, but drilling it down to not being able to solve the Buchholz enigma is unfair.

 

[j44thor]

Carl Willis needs to be held more accountable as a pitching coach for this staff. Nieves was fired after a month last year. Willis hasn't been able to add value to Buch, Kelly, Owens, etc.

Do you give him any credit for Porcello or much like all managers is he only allowed to receive blame when things go wrong?
Also Owens has never shown consistent FB command/control, not sure how a pitching coach is supposed to teach that. Owens just isn't very good.

Erod is really the key at this point. If he can become the pitcher he was at the end of last year that solves a lot of problems. Unfortunate that he is basically rehabbing at the ML level since Clay and Kelly both imploded.

 

[TheoShmeo]

Do you give him any credit for Porcello or much like all managers is he only allowed to receive blame when things go wrong?

I have no view on Willis' role with Porcello.

But, then again, I remain unsure of what we have in Porcello. He has looked good at times, both this year and last, but his last four games have been mediocre collectively:

5 innings/4 earned runs/loss

5.2 innings/2 earned runs/win

6.2 innings/4 earned runs/ND and team loss

6 innings/5 earned runs/ND and team loss

With the horrendous stink around Buck and Kelly, that Porcello has fallen off from his beginning pace has gone somewhat unnoticed. But I think he belongs on our list of starting pitching concerns.

 

[czar]

Kelly was definitely better in the second half of last year. Porcello has been better. Wright has been better. Barnes has sort of been better. I don't know if Willis is any good or not, but drilling it down to not being able to solve the Buchholz enigma is unfair.

Eh, Joe Kelly's "better" 2nd half in 2015 was mainly just a LOB%-fueled mirage (which has made all the more clear by his regression to open this season).

 

[smastroyin]

I'm not sure what credit is deserved for Porcello. How has he been any better than he was in Detroit? Most of this peripherals are in line except that he continues to give up more HR. Unless you only mean that Willis gets credit for undoing whatever Nieves did that screwed him up in the first half last year?

These are all pitchers that have had big variance in performance. But in the aggregate, Joe Kelly is the same guy he's been. Rick Porcello is the same guy he's been. I mean look back through their histories. If anything Porcello remains worse than he was in Detroit because of his new propensity to give up HR.

 

[lexrageorge]

I'm not sure what credit is deserved for Porcello. How has he been any better than he was in Detroit? Most of this peripherals are in line except that he continues to give up more HR. Unless you only mean that Willis gets credit for undoing whatever Nieves did that screwed him up in the first half last year?

These are all pitchers that have had big variance in performance. But in the aggregate, Joe Kelly is the same guy he's been. Rick Porcello is the same guy he's been. I mean look back through their histories. If anything Porcello remains worse than he was in Detroit because of his new propensity to give up HR.

The bolded is not true this year. Kelly is walking batters at nearly twice the rate of his career average. Sure, it's still only 6 games. But he has been considerably worse so far this season. I don't believe it has anything to do with Carl Willis.

Porcello has given up more HR's, but has also walked fewer batters and struck out more batters than in Detroit, so his peripherals overall are actually better. He's basically pitching as a solid #3/4 starter, which admittedly is what he was with the Tigers.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Carl Willis needs to be held more accountable as a pitching coach for this staff. Nieves was fired after a month last year. Willis hasn't been able to add value to Buch, Kelly, Owens, etc.

Maybe a move needs to be made, but let's not presume Willis is the head of the snake.

John Farrell, Pitching Guru:
2011 TOR - 4.29 FIP (11th in AL), 4.70 RA/G (11th in AL)
2012 TOR - 4.66 FIP (13th in AL), 4.84 RA/G (11th in AL)
2013 BOS - 3.84 FIP ( 7th in AL), 4.05 RA/G ( 6th in AL)
2014 BOS - 3.93 FIP (10th in AL), 4.41 RA/G (11th in AL)
2015 BOS - 4.17 FIP (13th in AL), 4.65 RA/G (14th in AL)

FIP: one middle quintile results, two fourth quintile results, two bottom quintile results.
RA/G: one second quintile result, three fourth quintile results, one bottom quintile result.

2016 BOS - 4.09 FIP ( 8th in AL), 4.69 RA/G (12th in AL)

A spade needs to be called a spade. Regardless of the pitching coach, Farrell's teams have consistently coaxed average results from superior pitching talent, and poor results from average pitching talent.

I think most analysts would agree the 2016 Sox have about average pitching talent. The below-average results shouldn't really be a surprise at this point.

As they say, it is what it is.

 

[smastroyin]

The bolded is not true this year. Kelly is walking batters at nearly twice the rate of his career average. Sure, it's still only 6 games. But he has been considerably worse so far this season. I don't believe it has anything to do with Carl Willis.

Porcello has given up more HR's, but has also walked fewer batters and struck out more batters than in Detroit, so his peripherals overall are actually better. He's basically pitching as a solid #3/4 starter, which admittedly is what he was with the Tigers.

In exchange for the higher K rate he has been giving up more FB. At the end of the day, when you add it up, it all adds up to his expected results being worse than they were in Detroit.

FIP: 4.31, 4.06, 3.91, 3.53, 3.67, 4.13, 4.31
xFIP: 4.24, 4.02, 3.89, 3.19, 3.68, 3.72, 3.89

The only trend here is that he was getting better year over year until he reached Boston, where despite an increase in K and a slight decrease in BB his FIP numbers have gone up. This is because HRs are a really important part of peripherals. It's not just K and BB. We tend to ignore them a bit in the minors but when we get to actual results on the field, they can't be ignored.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I can't do it right now, but it would be interesting to see those numbers for Farrell when he was actually the pitching coach.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I can't do it right now, but it would be interesting to see those numbers for Farrell when he was actually the pitching coach.

It was 07 to 10. FWIW, I'm not sure what the overall numbers tell us as a pitching coach may have great influence on one player, and little on a second. For example, I'm not sure Farrell ought to get credit for Beckett's good years, or penalized for his bad years, given injuries and Beckett's yo yo like tendencies. Or Papelbon - he did what he did before and after Farrell (although he did have one of his "worst" years of his prime in 2010.)

 

[Monbo Jumbo]

Here's the Red Sox rotation (as currently constituted) and their rest-of-season FIP projection by ZiPS and Steamer:

David Price (3.00 ZiPS, 3.22 Steamer)
Rick Porcello (3.79 ZiPS, 3.71 Steamer )
Eduardo Rodriguez (3.66 ZiPS, 4.21 Steamer)
Stephen Wright (4.12 ZiPS, 4.35 Steamer)

Roenis Elias (4.36 ZiPS, 4.30 Steamer)
Clay Buchholz (4.13 ZiPS, 4.10 Steamer)
Joe Kelly (4.24 ZiPS, 4.02 Steamer)

Projections need to be taken with a huge grain of salt, but they can provide an interesting baseline for comparison. For example:

James Shields (3.73 ZiPS, 3.93 Steamer) would be projected as the Red Sox number three starter if they were to trade for him, which sounds reasonable.

On the other hand, someone like Doug Fister (currently sporting a 3.86 ERA) would be projected as the Red Sox's worst starter (4.35 ZiPS, 4.54 Steamer).

Knuckleballers are known to consistently outperform their FIP. It's not a good measure for Wright's value or expectations.

 

[Devizier]

Knuckleballers are known to consistently outperform their FIP. It's not a good measure for Wright's value or expectations.

That's not really the point of the post, though.

 

[Plympton91]

Is there one of these threads for the back of the bullpen? the score last night was 5-5 after 6 innings. The night before it was 8-7 Red Sox. Sure, Porcello could have given up one fewer meatball. And, would have been nice if Buchhold had pitched a clean 4th inning of relief the night before instead of leaving with one out and one on. But the dog-years aging of Koji and the disappearance of Taz'a effectiveness since last August are just as big a problem as the 5th starter spot.

Andrew Miller and Jon Lester would solve a lot of problems, wouldn't they? Good riddance, Ben.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Is there one of these threads for the back of the bullpen? the score last night was 5-5 after 6 innings. The night before it was 8-7 Red Sox. Sure, Porcello could have given up one fewer meatball. And, would have been nice if Buchhold had pitched a clean 4th inning of relief the night before instead of leaving with one out and one on. But the dog-years aging of Koji and the disappearance of Taz'a effectiveness since last August are just as big a problem as the 5th starter spot.

Andrew Miller and Jon Lester would solve a lot of problems, wouldn't they? Good riddance, Ben.

What are you talking about? The guys that gave it up last night, Ross and Tazawa, have actually on the whole been good this year. They had shitty nights last night, but they've overall been positive baseball assets. Ramirez is a non-entity, but he was brought in when already down 4 runs and thus the balance of the game was no longer in doubt.

Buchholz got undone the night before by Pedroia's uncharacteristic error; without that he likely emerges from the game unscathed. Frankly Kelly got hurt by some atrocious CF defense by Young, who let at least two balls fall that JBJ would have caught. Sometimes shit happens.

Miller brought us E-Rod, and then got 36 million from the Yankees last year. He's great, but he didn't help the Yankees win any playoff games either which for a long time has been your only measure of success. Sure, it would be nice to have a reliever with a K rate of 15; shame he's being wasted on a sub-.500 team this year.

Lester is gone and that's too bad, but given Henry's statements in spring training the year he was traded, I'm not sure there was much Ben could have done to retain him.

If you're going to keep humping your binkies I'd rather you not do it in public.

 

[j44thor]

In exchange for the higher K rate he has been giving up more FB. At the end of the day, when you add it up, it all adds up to his expected results being worse than they were in Detroit.

FIP: 4.31, 4.06, 3.91, 3.53, 3.67, 4.13, 4.31
xFIP: 4.24, 4.02, 3.89, 3.19, 3.68, 3.72, 3.89

The only trend here is that he was getting better year over year until he reached Boston, where despite an increase in K and a slight decrease in BB his FIP numbers have gone up. This is because HRs are a really important part of peripherals. It's not just K and BB. We tend to ignore them a bit in the minors but when we get to actual results on the field, they can't be ignored.

Doesn't Comerica suppress HR's more than Fenway? Could the simple answer be the most obvious one? Playing 1/2 your games in Fenway in the AL East is tougher than playing 1/2 your games in Comerica and the AL Central (esp when you aren't pitching to the Tigers).

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

It was 07 to 10. FWIW, I'm not sure what the overall numbers tell us as a pitching coach may have great influence on one player, and little on a second. For example, I'm not sure Farrell ought to get credit for Beckett's good years, or penalized for his bad years, given injuries and Beckett's yo yo like tendencies. Or Papelbon - he did what he did before and after Farrell (although he did have one of his "worst" years of his prime in 2010.)

I'm coming around to thinking that, at some pervasive level, organizational philosophy drives collective pitching performance. That's not just the manager, or the pitching coach, or the baseball ops team, or the GM who chooses which pitchers acquire for the team. Or even just the actual catchers and pitchers who do the job.

The GM chooses the manager and the organization's players; the manager generally chooses who pitches and in what role and how to manage the roster; the manager also usually chooses the pitching coaches, who seek to help the pitchers perform the best they can; baseball ops provides data on opposing batters; the coaching staff holds strategy meetings ahead of each series with the pitchers and catchers on how to approach the other team multiple times through the order.

All this stuff has to have an effect on the development and refinement of pitchers, except for weird outliers like knuckleballers who do their own thing.

Teams like the Cardinals and the Rays always seem to have a revolving door of exceptional pitchers who seemingly come out of nowhere. The Orioles and Blue Jays have a recent history shipping off promising arms that become superstars in different systems. The Yankees and Red Sox struggle to draft and develop quality arms that succeed anywhere.

After years of underperformance, and no signs of anything different happening this season, there needs to be some organizational change.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

You can blame a bit of 2015 on Ben's failure to sign Lester, perhaps, but you can't really blame any of 2016. If we had signed Lester we would not have been in a position to sign Price, and while Lester may well prove the better bang-for-buck signing, saying we'd rather have him than Price in terms of winning games is a stretch, early results notwithstanding.

 

[smastroyin]

Doesn't Comerica suppress HR's more than Fenway? Could the simple answer be the most obvious one? Playing 1/2 your games in Fenway in the AL East is tougher than playing 1/2 your games in Comerica and the AL Central (esp when you aren't pitching to the Tigers).

Indeed, Comerica is not a great HR park. However, neither is Fenway. Using single year data can be troublesome, but here are the 2011-2015 park factors for HR only for each park:

Fenway: .880, 1.088, .845, .720, .971
Comerica: .987, 1.026, 1.013, 1.014, .791

Beyond that, I included xFIP specifically for reasons of ignoring his upward trend in HR/FB. Because on top of that, he also has the problem of giving up more FB. So his xFIP has gone up accordingly as well.

 

[Plympton91]

You can blame a bit of 2015 on Ben's failure to sign Lester, perhaps, but you can't really blame any of 2016. If we had signed Lester we would not have been in a position to sign Price, and while Lester may well prove the better bang-for-buck signing, saying we'd rather have him than Price in terms of winning games is a stretch, early results notwithstanding.

Jolmy said not to get into it, so I'll leave it at Lester only cost $5 million more per year than Porcello. They wouldn't be precluded from anything.

The Uehara and Tazawa regression is still the biggest problem to me. We need to reassess what is "good" from back end relievers. Many contending teams last year had multiple back end guys with sub 2.00 ERAs and commensurate peripherals. Both Taz and Ue are in the 3 to 4 range, and Taz has been a sieve since the second half of last year.

The loss of Carson Smith is really biting them in the ass this week. The implosion of Elias and Owens is doubling the problem with the rotation and postponing the inevitable move of Kelly to the pen, which at least we could hope would resuscitate his career in half the way it did for Miller, Wade Davis, Luke Hochevar, and Jeremy Affelt and others before him.