Crap performance and depth (starting pitching)

Lose Remerswaal

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I am definitely not a Cuevas guy but he's been the most consistent starter for the Pawsox this year. 8 starts, all at least 5 innings (and 5 of 6 innings or more) and only one start where he's given up more than 1 earned run every other inning (aka 4.50 ERA)
Is there one of these threads for the back of the bullpen? the score last night was 5-5 after 6 innings. The night before it was 8-7 Red Sox. Sure, Porcello could have given up one fewer meatball. And, would have been nice if Buchhold had pitched a clean 4th inning of relief the night before instead of leaving with one out and one on. But the dog-years aging of Koji and the disappearance of Taz'a effectiveness since last August are just as big a problem as the 5th starter spot.

Andrew Miller and Jon Lester would solve a lot of problems, wouldn't they? Good riddance, Ben.
Miller gave up a run last night. So did Betances and Chapman.
 

Larry Gardner

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What are you talking about? The guys that gave it up last night, Ross and Tazawa, have actually on the whole been good this year. They had shitty nights last night, but they've overall been positive baseball assets. Ramirez is a non-entity, but he was brought in when already down 4 runs and thus the balance of the game was no longer in doubt.
My main thought watching the shit performance last night was "why in the hell did we send down Heath Hembree?" The numbers game here was really frustrating to me, when he was one of the guys that was trustworthy this year. I realize that he couldn't come up instead of Ramirez because of a mandatory waiting period, but he performed well last year and this year.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Not unless you think that a team BABIP of .341 is just a wee bit fluky. Yes, Fenway gooses BABIP, and yes, this team is young and fast and features several players who hit the ball hard on a line on a regular basis, so it should have a high BABIP. But it seems pretty safe to assume it's going to be lower for the rest of the year than it's been so far. Red Sox team BABIPs for the previous five years: .305, .297, .329, .301, .314. That .329 mark belonged to the 2013 team, which, as you may recall, enjoyed some pretty outrageous good fortune on balls in play (that sound you hear in the background is Mike Carp emitting a nostalgic sigh).
.20 to .30 points of BABIP regression (if it even happens) isn't going to knock a couple runs per game off the board. The offense is going to be prolific unless players get hurt.
 

simplicio

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Maybe a move needs to be made, but let's not presume Willis is the head of the snake.

John Farrell, Pitching Guru:
2011 TOR - 4.29 FIP (11th in AL), 4.70 RA/G (11th in AL)
2012 TOR - 4.66 FIP (13th in AL), 4.84 RA/G (11th in AL)
2013 BOS - 3.84 FIP ( 7th in AL), 4.05 RA/G ( 6th in AL)
2014 BOS - 3.93 FIP (10th in AL), 4.41 RA/G (11th in AL)
2015 BOS - 4.17 FIP (13th in AL), 4.65 RA/G (14th in AL)

FIP: one middle quintile results, two fourth quintile results, two bottom quintile results.
RA/G: one second quintile result, three fourth quintile results, one bottom quintile result.

2016 BOS - 4.09 FIP ( 8th in AL), 4.69 RA/G (12th in AL)

A spade needs to be called a spade. Regardless of the pitching coach, Farrell's teams have consistently coaxed average results from superior pitching talent, and poor results from average pitching talent.

I think most analysts would agree the 2016 Sox have about average pitching talent. The below-average results shouldn't really be a surprise at this point.

As they say, it is what it is.
I feel like I'm missing something here. Farrell has never had the personnel for a great pitching staff, how is that his fault? Are we blaming him for Price sucking, and 2016 Buchholz not being 2013 Buchholz (does he also get credit for Steven Wright)? Or for managing in the AL East?
 

simplicio

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My main thought watching the shit performance last night was "why in the hell did we send down Heath Hembree?" The numbers game here was really frustrating to me, when he was one of the guys that was trustworthy this year. I realize that he couldn't come up instead of Ramirez because of a mandatory waiting period, but he performed well last year and this year.
He was the only guy in the pen with an option, right? Did you want to release someone instead?
 

Plympton91

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He was the only guy in the pen with an option, right? Did you want to release someone instead?
Barnes must have options, right? Though he seems interchangeable with Hembree. I think they need to consider whether they have the luxury of Layne as a LH specialist with this team. They'll lose him if they try to send him down, but it seems like Hembrees ability to stabilize a game like the past two nights is more important.
 

TheoShmeo

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He was the only guy in the pen with an option, right? Did you want to release someone instead?
I think he has more value in the short run than Clay. If they were managing the season for the next several games, I would have wanted Hembree over Clay and would have been OK with Buck being DFA'd.

But they have to consider that they may need Buchholz as the 5th starter some day and that he might bounce back or go on one of his rolls of effectiveness. Starter Insurance -- which we know is necessary, particularly given Kelly's suck, Eduardo's unclear health situation, Porcello's meh trendline and the limited options in the minors -- is what keeps Clay around and lead Hembree to be sent down.

(Edit: And czar's good point below....)
 

czar

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My main thought watching the shit performance last night was "why in the hell did we send down Heath Hembree?" The numbers game here was really frustrating to me, when he was one of the guys that was trustworthy this year. I realize that he couldn't come up instead of Ramirez because of a mandatory waiting period, but he performed well last year and this year.
Heath Hembree first 3 outings with Red Sox in 2016: 7.2 IP, 11/1 K/BB, 0.62 FIP
Heath Hembree since: 13.1 IP, 7/4 K/BB, 4.90 FIP

Besides the already noted options aspect, he also hadn't been very good in a "what have you done for me lately" role.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Curious about Vazquez and pitch calling with the caveat that I have no idea how to assess that (some here do). Yes, it's the pitcher who has ultimate say in what's thrown, but it's the catcher's responsibility to assess how the pitcher is throwing and what the hitters are reacting (or not reacting) to. I'm really only going by some of the things Remy is saying during a game - along the lines of, "...if he keeps throwing that pitch it's going to get hammered...", with the pitch thrown again...and getting hammered.

It's also the catcher's job to identify mechanical flaws, control or velocity loss and talk to the pitching coach about that during a game. Maybe he's doing that - we wouldn't know.

I could understand a young guy like Vazquez not having the respect or track-record to consistently override (particularly veteran) pitchers. I imagine it takes years of experience to assess what's going on around the plate.

I'm not bashing Vazquez. He doesn't yet have the years of experience that other catchers have. I think about Ross and how well respected he was by the staff (there are a thousand others). Is there a relationship between an experienced (albeit smart) catcher and ERA?
 

MuzzyField

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I look forward to a time when having an 0-2 or 1-2 count is actually an advantage to several of the Sox pitchers. The hitter is the one that is supposed to be on edge and turtle in such situations and not end up getting a free pass or a cock-high meatball to blast 420 feet into the stratosphere. Pitch execution in such situations needs to improve or I'll be voting, in the spirit of John McKay, for pitcher execution.
 

The Gray Eagle

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From Speier's "108 Stitches email update:

"Remember the pitching abomination of 2015? The Red Sox got off to the sort of poor start that sabotaged their season before it started and got their pitching coach fired before Memorial Day. Through 54 games, the team had yielded 248 runs while enduring 16 starts of five or more runs allowed, contributing to a 24-30 record that portended another last-place finish.

This year, while their record is drastically different (32-22 at this point), their offense has masked an even more deficient performance. Sox starters have allowed five or more runs 17 times this year – one more than to this point of 2015, and the most in the American League – while the staff as a whole has allowed 253 runs.

The 2016 Red Sox rotation, as a whole, has been worse than its 2015 predecessor through the first third of the season."

Thank heavens for Steven Wright, the pitching would be an absolute nightmare if he had sucked for the first third of the season.
 

CaptainLaddie

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Jolmy said not to get into it, so I'll leave it at Lester only cost $5 million more per year than Porcello. They wouldn't be precluded from anything.

The Uehara and Tazawa regression is still the biggest problem to me. We need to reassess what is "good" from back end relievers. Many contending teams last year had multiple back end guys with sub 2.00 ERAs and commensurate peripherals. Both Taz and Ue are in the 3 to 4 range, and Taz has been a sieve since the second half of last year.

The loss of Carson Smith is really biting them in the ass this week. The implosion of Elias and Owens is doubling the problem with the rotation and postponing the inevitable move of Kelly to the pen, which at least we could hope would resuscitate his career in half the way it did for Miller, Wade Davis, Luke Hochevar, and Jeremy Affelt and others before him.
What?

Before May 28th, Taz had an ERA of 1.37, K/BB of 25:5, a WHIP of .833.

There's no regression. He had two bad games.

You're bad at math, I guess.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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I look forward to a time when having an 0-2 or 1-2 count is actually an advantage to several of the Sox pitchers. The hitter is the one that is supposed to be on edge and turtle in such situations and not end up getting a free pass or a cock-high meatball to blast 420 feet into the stratosphere. Pitch execution in such situations needs to improve or I'll be voting, in the spirit of John McKay, for pitcher execution.
This is a fabulous post - not only for its wit, but the point it makes about not taking advantage of getting ahead in counts. This should be fixable. Paging Brian Bannister!
 

williams_482

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From Speier's "108 Stitches email update:

"Remember the pitching abomination of 2015? The Red Sox got off to the sort of poor start that sabotaged their season before it started and got their pitching coach fired before Memorial Day. Through 54 games, the team had yielded 248 runs while enduring 16 starts of five or more runs allowed, contributing to a 24-30 record that portended another last-place finish.

This year, while their record is drastically different (32-22 at this point), their offense has masked an even more deficient performance. Sox starters have allowed five or more runs 17 times this year – one more than to this point of 2015, and the most in the American League – while the staff as a whole has allowed 253 runs.

The 2016 Red Sox rotation, as a whole, has been worse than its 2015 predecessor through the first third of the season."

Thank heavens for Steven Wright, the pitching would be an absolute nightmare if he had sucked for the first third of the season.
The 2016 Red Sox have ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP- lines of 100 (15th in MLB), 101 (18th), and 102 (19th). If we only look at the starters, those numbers are 107 (15th), 107 (20th), and 105 (19th).

This has been, at worst, a moderately below average staff with an unusual amount of ups and downs. Who knows if they continue on the same level, but the idea that their performance has been bad enough to "sabotage the season" is rather overwrought.
 

reggiecleveland

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Really? 18th to 20th best pitching is going to get you to the playoffs? This team may have the best offence in baseball. Missing the playoffs would be a major disappointment. So this pitching has been bad enough to sabotage the season.
 

BaseballJones

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I'm curious to know if this Red Sox team has enough pitching IN THE PLAYOFFS. Yeah, obviously you gotta get there first. But maybe, just maybe, average to a little below average pitching, coupled with the best offense in the game, is enough to get them to the playoffs. Once there, is their staff good enough to win a championship? Obviously you rely on a lot fewer guys in the playoffs.

Starter 1: Price
Starter 2: Wright
Starter 3: Porcello
Starter 4: Rodriguez

Three key bullpen guys: Taz, Koji, Kimbrel

The rest, really, is filler, or pitches a handful of key innings along the way. When those guys are going right, I'd take that group combined with this offense. But right now, it's hard to picture that being enough. Price's postseason struggles are well-documented. Wright seems to be a wild card. Porcello....I don't trust in a big game. Who knows what Rodriguez is. I'm ok with the three bullpen guys in big spots.

Long story short... The pitching needs to be addressed, not only because I am not sure it's enough to get into the playoffs (unless they improve); I also think it's in trouble if they do somehow manage to get there.
 

Pegleg

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My main thought watching the shit performance last night was "why in the hell did we send down Heath Hembree?" The numbers game here was really frustrating to me, when he was one of the guys that was trustworthy this year. I realize that he couldn't come up instead of Ramirez because of a mandatory waiting period, but he performed well last year and this year.
And why did we let Rich Hill get away? Seems like bad management or understanding of how pitchers often develop at an older age.
 

Merkle's Boner

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And why did we let Rich Hill get away? Seems like bad management or understanding of how pitchers often develop at an older age.
I would honestly like to know how may other pitchers have had the kind of rebirth that we have seen from Hill. I was absolutely in agreement that any contract given to him was gonna be a waste of money.
 

simplicio

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And why did we let Rich Hill get away? Seems like bad management or understanding of how pitchers often develop at an older age.
We could have beaten the money for sure, but we couldn't offer him a guaranteed starting gig- we already had five starters and were going ace hunting, and at the end of the season Kelly was looking good and Edro was looking uninjured.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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And why did we let Rich Hill get away? Seems like bad management or understanding of how pitchers often develop at an older age.
Can you give examples of the pitchers who have developed at age 35 and who have also learned how to finally be durable at age 36? Pining over Rich Hill--who, incidentally missed his last start--is silly.
 

alwyn96

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I imagine Hill would have been happy to stay with the Red Sox, but wanted a guaranteed rotation spot, which is understandable. Given the intent to sign Price, and the presence of Porcello, Rodriguez, Buchholz, Kelly, and at that time Miley, I doubt Boston would have been able to guarantee a rotation spot to a 36 year old who hadn't started a major league game in almost 7 years. In retrospect it would have been a pretty sweet signing, but I don't remember many people being too upset about not signing him and pushing E-Rod or the

EDIT: or what simplicio said more succinctly than me.
 

Larry Gardner

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Barnes must have options, right? Though he seems interchangeable with Hembree. I think they need to consider whether they have the luxury of Layne as a LH specialist with this team. They'll lose him if they try to send him down, but it seems like Hembrees ability to stabilize a game like the past two nights is more important.
Was pleased to see Hembree return and stabilize the game yesterday......
 

MadStork

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From Speier's "108 Stitches email update:

"Remember the pitching abomination of 2015? The Red Sox got off to the sort of poor start that sabotaged their season before it started and got their pitching coach fired before Memorial Day. Through 54 games, the team had yielded 248 runs while enduring 16 starts of five or more runs allowed, contributing to a 24-30 record that portended another last-place finish.

This year, while their record is drastically different (32-22 at this point), their offense has masked an even more deficient performance. Sox starters have allowed five or more runs 17 times this year – one more than to this point of 2015, and the most in the American League – while the staff as a whole has allowed 253 runs.

The 2016 Red Sox rotation, as a whole, has been worse than its 2015 predecessor through the first third of the season."

Thank heavens for Steven Wright, the pitching would be an absolute nightmare if he had sucked for the first third of the season.

At what point do you hold Willis accountable ?

At what point do you hold Dombrowski accountable for this mess or does he get a pass since he inherited the mess.

Jeff Jones get a call?
 

Adrian's Dome

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At what point do you hold Dombrowski accountable for this mess or does he get a pass since he inherited the mess.
Why exactly would DD be held accountable?

If not for him, right now, the rotation would be Porcello, Wright, Kelly (or a not 100% EdRod,) Buch, and Miley. The bullpen would be the same sans Kimbrel, but that means more high-lev and more total innings for Koji and Taz, along with more low-quality innings from the back end guys. As mediocre-bad as the pitching has been, that would be far worse.
 

soxhop411

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Joe Kelly hoping mechanical tweak helps him grab vacant rotation job

PAWTUCKET -- For Joe Kelly, the mission is simple. “Just pitch better, I guess,” he said. Kelly will start Tuesday for Triple-A Pawtucket, his first start since the Red Sox optioned him to the minor leagues in the immediate aftermath of a shellacking in Baltimore. That he’s starting at all means he’s still under consideration to reclaim his job at the back end of the Boston rotation, a job that a series of scheduled off-days allowed Red Sox manager John Farrell to leave vacant temporarily. When discussing the as-yet-unassigned fifth starter’s job at Fenway Park late last week, Farrell was uncharacteristically blunt. “Clay (Buchholz), (Roenis) Elias, Joe Kelly, Henry Owens -- someone grab it,” the manager said. To grab the job, Kelly has to command his fastball better with the PawSox than he did in his last two starts with the Red Sox. He yielded two home runs and five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings at Toronto, and he followed that by giving up seven earned runs in 2 1/3 innings at Baltimore. Those two starts came on the heels of a start that saw him carry a no-hitter into the seventh inning against Cleveland at Fenway Park, epitomizing the enigma that Kelly has become. “He has a variety of weapons and different looks, but that fastball in on righthanded hitters, if he’s pitching inside, that makes for an uncomfortable at-bat,” PawSox manager Kevin Boles said. “I don't think it's a lack of trust or conviction. It's just him getting it in that right spot." What Kelly found was that inconsistency in the length of his stride caused inconsistency in the rest of his delivery, resulting in a lower arm slot and less downward action with his hand. Shortening his stride and standing taller were two of the focus points in a recent bullpen session with PawSox pitching coach Bob Kipper. “My last bullpen was good because I felt exactly what I needed to feel,” he said. “Now it’s just a matter of trying to get that feeling every time out and not get away from it.” To grab the job, Kelly will have to fend off a charge from Elias, who has struck out at least eight hitters in three of his last four starts -- including a complete game on Sunday at Norfolk. His ERA in his last four starts is 4.03, and he has struck out 44 hitters in his last 44 2/3 innings.
 

pjr

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Heard #RedSox taking a look at two free agents: RHP Casey Janssen and 1B Cody Decker. Need depth in AAA. Farrell had Janssen in Toronto.
 

Plympton91

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Casey Janssen was worse than terrible down the stretch for DC last year. He looked totally cooked. Just say no. Given the stats at Pawtucket, I'd say at least giving Varvaro shot first is preferable.
 

Koufax

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Pat Light looked good tonight for the Pawsox. Not a starter, but not bad numbers this season.Whip 1.24.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Heard #RedSox taking a look at two free agents: RHP Casey Janssen and 1B Cody Decker. Need depth in AAA. Farrell had Janssen in Toronto.
Casey Janssen was worse than terrible down the stretch for DC last year. He looked totally cooked. Just say no.
You care about the Pawtucket W/L record that much?
 
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nvalvo

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Casey Janssen was worse than terrible down the stretch for DC last year. He looked totally cooked. Just say no. Given the stats at Pawtucket, I'd say at least giving Varvaro shot first is preferable.
Varvaro's been good to great in Pawtucket. I think we'll see him soon.
 

simplicio

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I think Varvaro is out of options. Bringing him up means losing the flexibility of that last shuttle spot unless they're willing to DFA Tommy Layne.
 

Plympton91

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Hope so. Good to great is not a description I'd use for the current staff
Have you seen him pitch? Is he throwing 92-94 with command? Or, is he throwing high 80s and fooling AAA hitters with a split finger that major league hitters will shrug off?
 

simplicio

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He's also been released before and turned back up. If the Sox call him up and he can't do the job, what's the problem with DFA'ing him?
No problem with that, but if he is in fact good it's either going to cost you depth (Layne DFAed and likely claimed) or flexibility (loss of the optionable slot), and I can see not wanting to give up either at this point in the season for a marginal gain.
 

soxhop411

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Joe kelly may be out a bit

“‪@BillKoch25‬: #PawSox manager Kevin Boles said Joe Kelly left tonight’s start with right groin injury. Felt something pitch before his last of the night.”
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Joe kelly may be out a bit

“‪@BillKoch25‬: #PawSox manager Kevin Boles said Joe Kelly left tonight’s start with right groin injury. Felt something pitch before his last of the night.”
:eek: I'm perpetually going to believe that we're just around the corner from Kelly turning into a great pitcher... that he'll figure something out and lock it in and be exactly what we need in our rotation. I still do.... but holy crap this is ridiculous.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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:eek: I'm perpetually going to believe that we're just around the corner from Kelly turning into a great pitcher... that he'll figure something out and lock it in and be exactly what we need in our rotation. I still do.... but holy crap this is ridiculous.
Well we need to replace Buchholz in the rotation sooner or later.
 

Koufax

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I am definitely not a Cuevas guy but he's been the most consistent starter for the Pawsox this year. 8 starts, all at least 5 innings (and 5 of 6 innings or more) and only one start where he's given up more than 1 earned run every other inning (aka 4.50 ERA)
Now up to 10 starts, the most recent being last night's 8 innings of scoreless ball. ERA at 2.74.