#DFG: Canceling the Noise
- Thread starter nattysez
- Start date
Simmons as his last hurrah at ESPN should re-write the Wells report. But instead of using all the circumstantial evidence and iffy science against the Pats he should use it for the Pats. Draw all the conclusions someone who is not working towards a guilty verdict could possibly come to.
If this investigation was supposed to be thorough, wouldn't there be other videos of McNally disappearing with balls after the ref checks them during other games?
If i am remembering correctly during the regular season McNally is left alone with the balls in the refs locker room for like 30 minutes normally....Lots of time to give the Pats a massive competitive advantage.Padaiyappa said:
No really, they used a t-test???tedseye said:
Forget about t-tests for a second- the main problem is the standard of evidence. Real science requires statistically significant results. Without that, you have nothing. The Exponent report has nothing.
edit: shorter
I wonder if the possible suspension is just window dressing to appease the masses because he knows Brady will appeal and have a good chance of winning based on the facts.
If he gets/serves 4 games, the 5th game of the season is in prime time against Indy. Just sayin'
Hoya81 said:
Perfect. Then they should be able to produce video evidence of McNally taking balls into the bathroom a week earlier against the Ravens.
Can't we go back to the litigators quarreling with the transactional folks?notfar said:
When your effect size is large, your sample size can be small. Brady's balls have neither large effects nor large sample sizes.
Helmet Head said:
Do you really think the Patriots didn't intentionally deflate the balls though? I'm OK with Brady taking the fall for it even though I have a hard time believing that BB wasn't in the loop on this.
BB loves to push the limit on the rules... sometimes you push too hard and get burned.
My Prediction
Brady gets 6 games, knocked down to 3 or 4.
Belicheck gets 2 games.
Loss of 1st in 2016
500K fine for The Pats.
I go on a rampage.
Brady gets 6 games, knocked down to 3 or 4.
Belicheck gets 2 games.
Loss of 1st in 2016
500K fine for The Pats.
I go on a rampage.
Tough to repeat. I'm not sure something to rally around (Brady suspension) all season long is the worst thing in the world.
dcmissle said:
Oh I think it's more than that. I think Kraft is lobbying starting now to get Goodell fired. Even if Brady did order the code deflate this is a shitty way for the league to build its business: you have to police the game but emphasizing the gamesmanship and rulebreaking by making investigations this high profile just (and by harshly and publicly punishing people) just reduces the attractiveness of the league and its top players and teams.
I think they probably did but I also think the evidence is such that the suspension could get overturnedaxx said:
I actually don't think they deflated the balls.axx said:
They would not have been so dead set on claiming innocence and the science basically shows that the balls could have deflated due to the conditions if you slightly change the inputs.
You don't hire a firm that works from the conclusion backwards unless you can't prove what you need to prove through more reputable sources.
Re statistical use by exponent on the halftime pressure measurements: it is an F statistic derived by calculating sum of the squares - still classic parametric method.
I thoroughly agree with all who have said real scientists would deem the data insufficient and inadequate to subject to any analysis, lacking a recorded baseline for individual values. "Garbage in, garbage out" is the classic phrase.
I thoroughly agree with all who have said real scientists would deem the data insufficient and inadequate to subject to any analysis, lacking a recorded baseline for individual values. "Garbage in, garbage out" is the classic phrase.
Question that may have been answered somewhere... but is there a minimum for any weather condition or does it change? Given science..if you inflated your balls to the minimum that would mean on a cold day that your balls would go under the minimum... so would that mean that a team has to inflate their balls to the correct pressure above the minimum given game day temperature? Or has the NFL not thought about this at all? Same would be true for balls at the upper end and hot days...
This rule seems like it's almost impossible to comply with.
This rule seems like it's almost impossible to comply with.
This thought experiment was brought up many times in the first iteration of this firestorm after the AFCCG.lars10 said:
The short snswer is, I don't think anyone could possibly answer because they cared so little about the rule.
I think reason would tell you that < 12.5 during game time would be fine as long as the ball was within spec at point of measurement before the game. The consequences of it not being legal are too many.
Simple example: A cold front swoops in and drops the ball pressure by more than 1 psi during the game. How do you predict this? Even if you can predict it, how do you account for it pre game? Any starting PSI is either illegal or will eventually result in an illegal value because the legal range is only 1 psi.
tedseye said:
Also have a realistic range for air pressure -- as has been mentioned before, FIFA's range for footballs is 8.5-15.6. And it is not a good thing when your organization in any way makes FIFA look rational.
When wet-behind-the-ears Colin Kaepernick has more sense on this than all of those people in the League office combined, you have a pretty big problem.Shelterdog said:
Sadly, the thing on this planet likely to get RG fired the quickest is a long TB suspension that miraculously sticks.
dcmissle said:
I think I'd give up several vital organs for the trifecta of Brady rage-quitting, Jimmy G winning a Super Bowl and Rog being fired.
Whether they deflated the balls or not doesn't matter. This is about "cheating," which seems rampant in sport these days.
Idiots like Arod pretty much tarnish everyone else. We get the impression that everyone cheats. It's not about "there's not 100% proof"; it's that there is more than 0%.
Pats won the SB and will probably win next year. I'll take that.
And fire those bozo equipment guys.
Idiots like Arod pretty much tarnish everyone else. We get the impression that everyone cheats. It's not about "there's not 100% proof"; it's that there is more than 0%.
Pats won the SB and will probably win next year. I'll take that.
And fire those bozo equipment guys.
Are you hearing anything about a BB suspension this time?TheoShmeo said:
Here is the weird aspect of this. Most everyone assumes it's off the table because BB didn't know. But from a strictly legal perspective, it almost certainly would be easier to sustain than a TB suspension.
dcmissle said:
That would be the equivalent of invading Iraq because there were no targets to bomb in Afghanistan.
Kenny F'ing Powers said:
I know this will be unpopular, but---
based on seeing a few preseason games, I don't think Jimmy G is the answer. The most notable thing I saw watching him and Brady is that Brady's arm is much stronger than Jimmy G's. Brady looks like he's firing a rifle when he runs the quick out, compared to JG. I think that's just a sign that Brady has a cannon compared to most QBs in the league. With his decision making and accuracy on short and mid-distance throws, we have really been lucky to watch him for so many years.
If Brady is out, BB probably rearchitects the offense a bit for JG. I just worry the offense is going to be much less productive without Brady.
Hold me?
I don't think it will happen, because I think he will suspend TB and take a first-round draft pick, and he is not going to want to look like he's trying to kill the team. But I certainly wouldn't take it off the table.Nick Kaufman said:
Nothing short of stripping the SB win would surprise me at this point.
I think we are about to find out how (if we haven't already) that Kraft's supposed influence with the league is imaginary.dcmissle said:
That was always a pipe dream that made no sense. It has always made more sense that, if anything, Goodell was trying to dispel that reputation. Goodell could have quashed this from Day 1 by issuing a statement that its a technical violation and the Patriots will be fined the proscribed $25k.Eddie Jurak said:
There is influence, and then there is influence. No owner can dictate a particular matter. For example, whether they wanted to or not, the Steelers could not avoid the Big Ben suspension.Eddie Jurak said:
Can owners like Rooney and Kraft take out Goodell over time? I think so.
dcmissle said:
Yeah, I am kidding.
I gotta say. All this hoopla has gotten me pumped up for next season, whereas normally, I would feel satiated enough to not care about whether we win or lose. I just really wish we could go 19-0 while accumulating the best point differential in the history of the sport and meting out a monumental epic ass kicking to the colts. Then, after the season is over, Brady and Bellichick retire without giving anyone the satisfaction of seeing them defeated.
However, one depressing thought is that at some point is going catch up with Brady and if it's next year, I won't be able to take the snide saying that all of his success was owed to deflated balls.
I'm surprised not more has been made of the NFL hiring Exponent to do the research/analysis. They are well known as the company to hire when you need a biased outcome.
Here is a great article on Exponent from 2010 and the work they typically engage in. This would more probably than not validate that this was always going to be a witch hunt. http://articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/18/business/la-fi-toyota-exponent18-2010feb18
This quote from the Toyota fiasco years back is rather telling:
Here is a great article on Exponent from 2010 and the work they typically engage in. This would more probably than not validate that this was always going to be a witch hunt. http://articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/18/business/la-fi-toyota-exponent18-2010feb18
This quote from the Toyota fiasco years back is rather telling:
William Rhoden in the Times this morning, who I ordinarily think is a pretty intelligent guy, suggests that Brady should be fined at least as much as Greg Hardy, because what Hardy did was mere violence against women, whereas Brady undermined the integrity of the game.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/08/sports/football/penalty-must-show-games-integrity-not-tom-brady-is-unassailable.html?ref=topics&_r=0
I'm a pessimist by nature, but if it's not 4 games for Brady and a 1st for the Pats, I'd be surprised.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/08/sports/football/penalty-must-show-games-integrity-not-tom-brady-is-unassailable.html?ref=topics&_r=0
I'm a pessimist by nature, but if it's not 4 games for Brady and a 1st for the Pats, I'd be surprised.
There were members of this board that claimed Biscotti did exactly this with the Rice situation.dcmissle said:
To Theo's original point, you can't begin to craft a strategy until counsel has completely debriefed TB on a privileged basis, and has examined both the cell phone and any other material that may bear on this.
It wld be professional malpractice to render counsel without knowing as much as possible about what your client did or did not do. I think we all agree that the contents of the phone have not been disclosed to PW, and apparently (unclear) not to counsel for TB and the Pats.
On a collateral point, does anyone know if TB was represented by his own counsel in this? He certainly should have been.
It wld be professional malpractice to render counsel without knowing as much as possible about what your client did or did not do. I think we all agree that the contents of the phone have not been disclosed to PW, and apparently (unclear) not to counsel for TB and the Pats.
On a collateral point, does anyone know if TB was represented by his own counsel in this? He certainly should have been.
j44thor said:
They're a litigation consulting firm. A high-quality one, for sure - but you might be surprised by the amount of brainpower for sale for litigation consulting. Just pulling out a few in different industries:
http://www.brattle.com/
http://www.wje.com/services/litigation-consulting.php
https://www.elys.com/careers
If a company hires a litigation consulting firm, it's usually paying for data and analysis that support the company's position. It's a tightrope- the consulting firms have to be seen as unbiased to be effective at their jobs, so they will swear up and down that they are unbiased. But they would have no clients if they didn't cater to clients' needs.
" issues related to domestic violence"
Maybe Rhoden should describe what Hardy did before making such an inane equivalency.
Fwiw, I've never had any respect for him or his paper
Maybe Rhoden should describe what Hardy did before making such an inane equivalency.
Fwiw, I've never had any respect for him or his paper
