From 2000-2016
2000 - Kenyon Martin
2001 - Kwame Brown
2002 - Yao Ming
2003 - LeBron James
2004 - Dwight Howard
2005 - Andrew Bogut
2006 - Andrea Bargnani
2007 - Greg Oden
2008 - Derrick Rose
2009 - Blake Griffin
2010 - John Wall
2011 - Kyrie Irving
2012 - Anthony Davis
2013 - Anthony Bennett
2014 - Andrew Wiggins
2015 - Karl-Anthony Towns
2016 - Ben Simmons
Category 1 - Hall of fame caliber players: LeBron, Davis, Yao
Category 2 - Studs that have worked out wonderfully: Howard, Rose, Griffin, Wall, Towns
Category 3 - Players who have been really good NBA players but not total studs: Irving, Martin, Wiggins
Category 4 - Players who had potential but injuries killed them, or guys who just haven't been great: Simmons, Bargnani, Bogut
Category 5 - Busts or guys who just haven't been, no other way to put it: Brown, Bennett, Oden
Of course, the jury is still out on Wiggins and Simmons. Both may end up in category 1. Rose was a total stud before getting hurt and maybe could have been in category 1 if not for the injury. I get that YMMV on how these guys are categorized. Towns may very well be a category 1 guy, and probably is well on his way to being there. But by my reckoning, out of the 16 guys drafted #1 since 2000:
- 3 are hall of fame guys
- 5 are studs
- 3 have been really good NBA players
- 3 have just not been great, or injuries have hit them
- 3 have been busts
That means 65% of them have been at a minimum, really good NBA players.
The Celtics really need Fultz (or whomever they draft...I think we're all thinking Fultz is the likely choice) to be at least a category 2 kind of guy. I think there's an excellent chance that he will be.
EDIT: Thanks pokey_reese for catching my Oden miss. Definitely in category 5. So while nearly half (8 of 17) have been studs or better, 35% of them have not remotely lived up to their first pick status.
2000 - Kenyon Martin
2001 - Kwame Brown
2002 - Yao Ming
2003 - LeBron James
2004 - Dwight Howard
2005 - Andrew Bogut
2006 - Andrea Bargnani
2007 - Greg Oden
2008 - Derrick Rose
2009 - Blake Griffin
2010 - John Wall
2011 - Kyrie Irving
2012 - Anthony Davis
2013 - Anthony Bennett
2014 - Andrew Wiggins
2015 - Karl-Anthony Towns
2016 - Ben Simmons
Category 1 - Hall of fame caliber players: LeBron, Davis, Yao
Category 2 - Studs that have worked out wonderfully: Howard, Rose, Griffin, Wall, Towns
Category 3 - Players who have been really good NBA players but not total studs: Irving, Martin, Wiggins
Category 4 - Players who had potential but injuries killed them, or guys who just haven't been great: Simmons, Bargnani, Bogut
Category 5 - Busts or guys who just haven't been, no other way to put it: Brown, Bennett, Oden
Of course, the jury is still out on Wiggins and Simmons. Both may end up in category 1. Rose was a total stud before getting hurt and maybe could have been in category 1 if not for the injury. I get that YMMV on how these guys are categorized. Towns may very well be a category 1 guy, and probably is well on his way to being there. But by my reckoning, out of the 16 guys drafted #1 since 2000:
- 3 are hall of fame guys
- 5 are studs
- 3 have been really good NBA players
- 3 have just not been great, or injuries have hit them
- 3 have been busts
That means 65% of them have been at a minimum, really good NBA players.
The Celtics really need Fultz (or whomever they draft...I think we're all thinking Fultz is the likely choice) to be at least a category 2 kind of guy. I think there's an excellent chance that he will be.
EDIT: Thanks pokey_reese for catching my Oden miss. Definitely in category 5. So while nearly half (8 of 17) have been studs or better, 35% of them have not remotely lived up to their first pick status.
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