This is true too. There is really no degree of separation from a lot of these prospects and it's far too early to tell how it's going to play out.Redraft or no, the 2016 class has not been particularly impressive to date.
This is true too. There is really no degree of separation from a lot of these prospects and it's far too early to tell how it's going to play out.Redraft or no, the 2016 class has not been particularly impressive to date.
Looking at these videos tells me one thing: JB likes to make videos. It reminds me of the time when Cedric Maxwell got injured and the broadcasters showed video of how hard Cedric was working to come back. A short time later he was traded. Red was furious that he wasn't putting out the effort.
2nd video went up last week. I really like these
I have no idea how most guys train, but my biggest concern with Jaylen were the reports that he had so many interests outside of basketball, he seems to really be working hard
Well with regard to the bolded, other than Simmons - simply because we don't know much about him - I don't see any other player at the top of the draft getting the same minutes on the Cs this year. Chriss maybe but he's in foul trouble a lot and seemed to be worse at making rotations on defense. Ingram, Bender, Murray, etc. have the reputation of not being able to guard people.Some people prefer Ingram, Chriss, Scal, Hield. Quite a few people think JB is trash, honestly. Phoenix/Indiana/Chicago boards think he's basically a minor piece or throw in in a deal.
I don't get how people can look at JB's overall performance and think he really outperformed anyone. He had a few good moments.
They also had those 2 redrafts posted on this board that had Yabu and Zizic ahead of Jaylen.
Have you met any other 16-25 year old?Looking at these videos tells me one thing: JB likes to make videos.
This. Plus, I bet Adidas has encouraged this sort of branding exercise...Have you met any other 16-25 year old?
What is this, Intro to Metaphysics and Epistemology? It's one more piece of evidence, along with all the other ones we've got, that he puts in the work. Of course we can't be sure of anything, but all signs point to him working extremely hard.I'm not criticizing him for making the videos. I"m just saying that they tell us nothing about how hard he is or is not working on his basketball skills.
This. I don't think there's a good statistical answer to the question of how playing on a winning team vs a losing one impacts the numbers - there just aren't enough top picks going to winning teams. I think his progression from year 1 to years 2 and 3 will tell us more.JB played real minutes in game 7 of the Conference semi-finals. What more can you ask of him? At this point - without getting into the silly floor or ceiling debate - he remains as bright of a prospect as any player out of that draft. Maybe he stagnates this upcoming year but given how much work he is putting in, I wouldn't bet against him.
Absolutely. This isn't a player comparison thing - it's just looking at which players who started off with a similar overall box-score value as him had the higher peaks. This is a very quick and dirty look only, without any deeper focus on play style, or athleticism, etc... I think it's not promising all the same however, since as you note, the best case scenarios were mostly role players (and there are a bunch of outright busts that I didn't list as well).Don't you have to look at the type of player he is? I'd say that most of the guys on this list were role players who did one thing well and they are not comparable to JB at all.
What about the overall performance of the 4 players you listed? The only one who outperformed their expectations as a rookie was Scal and he did so on a 25-win team. I don't place much weight on the rookie year results of a 19-year old in limited opportunities.Some people prefer Ingram, Chriss, Scal, Hield. Quite a few people think JB is trash, honestly. Phoenix/Indiana/Chicago boards think he's basically a minor piece or throw in in a deal.
I don't get how people can look at JB's overall performance and think he really outperformed anyone. He had a few good moments.
They also had those 2 redrafts posted on this board that had Yabu and Zizic ahead of Jaylen.
Just a note, I wonder if minutes played is one of the better indicators of future success for young players (particularly rookies). In essence, you're using coaches' insights as a proxy for projected player quality. And with such a small sample, that might be the best kind of data available. Yes, there are caveats, like mediocre players force fed minutes on terrible teams, but there are caveats with any of these kinds of projections.Edit: Sorry, posted this by accident before I was ready.
I wanted to look at some particular areas and see how rookies fared. I took the top 11 small forwards by ESPN's RPM (11 because George is 11th this year) and added Jimmy Butler (general interest) and Jeff Green (fear).
Minutes (Age):
James (19) - 3122
Durant (19) - 2768
Iguodola (21) - 2686
Jeff Green (21) - 2253
Covington (24) - 1956
Antetokounmpo (19) - 1897
Leonard (20) - 1534
Crowder (22) - 1353
Brown (20) - 1341
George (20) - 1265
Hayward (20) - 1218
Gallinari (20) - 412
Butler (22) - 359
Porter (20) - 319
Brown played on a team where he had to compete for minutes. If he had played on a crap team, he probably would have averaged 10-15 points a game and stood out more than any other player in the draft. His man defense is near or at the top of any rookie, as well. If we leave out Simmons, I would have Brown, Chriss, and Ingram in the top tier and I think there's a good case to take him first.I don't get how people can look at JB's overall performance and think he really outperformed anyone. He had a few good moments.
He was playing on an excellent team, highly unusual for a highly drafted rookie. Encouraging he got minutes, of course, but he's likely to have got better opportunities when playing on a good deep team. You can't just ignore that either.Brown played on a team where he had to compete for minutes. If he had played on a crap team, he probably would have averaged 10-15 points a game and stood out more than any other player in the draft. His man defense is near or at the top of any rookie, as well. If we leave out Simmons, I would have Brown, Chriss, and Ingram in the top tier and I think there's a good case to take him first.
I will say that I think Danny missed an opportunity last year to move up for Chriss. He's still raw, but his ceiling is high. Maybe he and Brown were a bit redundant?
I don't think many here would take Brown over Booker. That seems nuts to me, and I think Booker is one of the more overrated guys in the league.I'm guessing most people on this board would take Jaylen Brown over Devin Booker. Booker is younger than Jaylen Brown. I dunno. I know they are different players but I don't know how anyone would think Jaylen has more value around the league.
People were saying #3 and JB was worth far more than #4 and Booker. They were saying #3 and AB or Crowder was more than 4 and Booker. There is no way they value 1 slot that highly.I don't think many here would take Brown over Booker. That seems nuts to me, and I think Booker is one of the more overrated guys in the league.
I think it's very hard to make the case for Brown over Booker, and don't think many people would do so. Booker may have hit his 'ceiling' already, but that ceiling is at or above the most likely outcome for Brown. And I like Brown generally, but we need to be realistic about what he has (and hasn't done) too...scoring 22 a game with a decent (not very good) secondary skillset is well past what Brown has shown even in college.People were saying #3 and JB was worth far more than #4 and Booker. They were saying #3 and AB or Crowder was more than 4 and Booker. There is no way they value 1 slot that highly.
I dunno, I agree about Jayson but there's a subtle difference in the way I say Jalen vs. Jaylen, with the latter's long a being slightly more pronounced. Maybe it's just me.Fwiw, in the most recent "Dunc'd On" podcast, both Nate Duncan and Danny LeRoux said they preferred Jaylen Brown as a prospect to Jayson Tatum.
(NB @ both Brown and Tatum: the Ys in your first names are superfluous).
Booker's VORP was a good bit better (0.5 VORP isn't nothing - check the BPM to see the actual gap on a per minute basis). But yes, I think Booker is sneaky bad (a "lie" I think I called him in another thread). Even so, they're the same age, and Booker looks to have secured himself at least a solid floor as a Jamal Crawford type, who can at the very least run a 2nd unit offense.Is it weird Booker had the same VORP last season that Brown did this season?
Also, EFF per 48:
Booker: 21.0
Brown: 18.4
Hmm... maybe it's just me, but I definitely make no distinction between "Jalen" Rose and "Jaylen" Brown.I dunno, I agree about Jayson but there's a subtle difference in the way I say Jalen vs. Jaylen, with the latter's long a being slightly more pronounced. Maybe it's just me.
I should email The Ringer they'd probably squeeze 2000 words out of this.Hmm... maybe it's just me, but I definitely make no distinction between "Jalen" Rose and "Jaylen" Brown.
If you asked the 30 GMs to re-rank last year's draft class, I'd wager that the median ranking for Brown would probably be #3 behind Simmons and Ingram, but I also bet that there would be some wildly divergent rankings with Chriss, Brogdon, Hield, Murray, Skal and Maker all in the mix to push Brown back. We just don't have enough information on Brown or any of the other players to make a definitive statement on how this draft will shake out.This is surprising to read. Aside from Brogdon, who passes everyone not named Simmons, who else would Jaylen fall behind? I don't see another player from that class who leaps that much to clear the Jaylen hurdle.
To be fair Brown is only 4 months older than Murray (10/24/96 vs 2/23/97).All 5 of the 1st teamers are 23 or older. Jaylen, at 20, is the second-oldest member of the 2nd team behind Yogi Ferrell (24).
Did we ever get confirmation on Maker's age? I know there were rumors before the draft that he is actually 2-3 years older than his stated age and some teams took him off their boards because of this.No surprises there on the all rook teams.
If there was a redraft I would be surprised if Jaylen Brown came ahead of Thon Maker. A seven footer who demonstrated some potential to drop threes and some ability to move well? At 19? That has to be rarer/ more valuable than an athletic swing man.
From what I saw in the playoffs, Thon Maker's only skills are being tall and able to move well for his size, jumping well, and hitting 3Ps. While some teams may find that more valuable than Jaylen Brown in any particular draft year, if - for example - there was an expansion draft, Brown would be drafted well ahead of Maker.No surprises there on the all rook teams.
If there was a redraft I would be surprised if Jaylen Brown came ahead of Thon Maker. A seven footer who demonstrated some potential to drop threes and some ability to move well? At 19? That has to be rarer/ more valuable than an athletic swing man.
You have just described more or less the perfect big man in todays NBA. Its like saying Tom Brady's only skills are having a strong, accurate arm with good decision making skills and a solid pocket presence.From what I saw in the playoffs, Thon Maker's only skills are being tall and able to move well for his size, jumping well, and hitting 3Ps. While some teams may find that more valuable than Jaylen Brown in any particular draft year, if - for example - there was an expansion draft, Brown would be drafted well ahead of Maker.
If you're comparing him to a 20 year-old Jaylen, I'd say it does matter.Does it really matter if Thon Maker is 20 or 22? He's already shown that he can play at the NBA level. It's not like you're trying to adjust for level of competition or projecting what his body will look like as he matures. He's 7'1" and shown both athleticism and outside shooting ability. That's really rare.
I'd happily swap Jaylen for a 22-year old Thon Maker, but yes, I'd say it matters. Depending what aging curve you're using, players peak at 24 to 27 or something, so if you're trying to project Maker, it's pretty salient if he's likely got 2 years of growth left, or 4 years. Every player develops differently of course.Does it really matter if Thon Maker is 20 or 22? He's already shown that he can play at the NBA level. It's not like you're trying to adjust for level of competition or projecting what his body will look like as he matures. He's 7'1" and shown both athleticism and outside shooting ability. That's really rare.
Actually, you have that completely backwards. I'm basically saying that just because you can throw a ball through the goalposts from your knees, it doesn't make you Tom Brady.You have just described more or less the perfect big man in todays NBA. Its like saying Tom Brady's only skills are having a strong, accurate arm with good decision making skills and a solid pocket presence.
This is roughly the same as saying Al Horford sucks because he is only an average rebounder and post scorer. The complete list of "do it all" big men in the NBA is Anthony Davis. Every team other than the Pelicans has to settle for players with some weaknesses.Thon Maker is certainly valuable asset in the NBA but teams that don't happen to have a 6'11" do it all player might want someone who can do more than stand in a corner and hit 3Ps on one end.
I'm not sure what you are arguing against.This is roughly the same as saying Al Horford sucks because he is only an average rebounder and post scorer. The complete list of "do it all" big men in the NBA is Anthony Davis. Every team other than the Pelicans has to settle for players with some weaknesses.
If all Thon Maker can do is protect the rim, use his agility and length to take on roll men off picks, set screens, dunk and hit threes, then Thon Maker is still capable of being an all star.
I think you're overstating this. Sure some teams might take Maker, but Jaylen was actually projected and drafted ahead, then earned almost double Makers minutes for a better team.Did you notice how many no skill centers were drafted this year?
You are wrong. Brown is replaceable unless he owns out very well. Teams always want two way 7 footers.
Can't wait!I think there's only 1 way to settle this debate once and for all. To the summer leagues!
I have thought the exact phrase "poor man's Nique" when watching him. He's less highlight reel and more fundamentals, but I see plenty of similarities in their game.Very interesting debate. I'm generally high on Brown due to his athleticism and the minutes he earned. I think of him as a poor man's Nique who cares about defense. When I looked at Nique's rookie (23 yo) rate stats they are surprisingly similar to Brown's.