JDM

[nvalvo]

Hosmer supposedly has a 7/147 contract offer from KC.

Wonder what way this will push JDM’s
Contract.

Well, it looks like Hosmer has two serious bidders in SD and KC. (It's striking that you can now get a contract to that stratosphere without any big market teams in the bidding, though.)

It's not really clear that this is the case for JDM, as we've been discussing for months, at least based on what we know.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Hosmer supposedly has a 7/147 contract offer from KC.

Wonder what way this will push JDM’s
Contract.

Can't see it having any impact on Martinez since neither plays the same position nor have they been linked to the same suitor (at least, since the Sox signed Moreland they haven't). Essentially, I don't see a team that misses out on Hosmer turning to Martinez as a consolation, thus impacting his contract prospects.

 

[moondog80]

Can't see it having any impact on Martinez since neither plays the same position nor have they been linked to the same suitor (at least, since the Sox signed Moreland they haven't). Essentially, I don't see a team that misses out on Hosmer turning to Martinez as a consolation, thus impacting his contract prospects.

Could it be that it simply hardens Martinez' resolve to hold out for say, 6 years instead of 5?

 

[nvalvo]

So, if it's true that Boston has a 5 year offer on the table to JDM, but the $130m figure was the on-air guess of a WEEI host, what range would people guess the true offer was?

Lower? Higher? Or is $130m about right?

I'll go for lower. 5/$100. My reasoning? I think Martinez would have already accepted and signed a 5/$130 offer.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I was listening to MLB Radio this morning, and Steve Phillips said he'd offer 5/100 and wait to see if there's anyone who would beat it - he's skeptical that there are others that would go 5 years, given his defensive deficiencies (for NL suitors like SF and AZ, and he also noted the payroll/Greinke problem for AZ)). Eduardo Perez suggested 5/118.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Hosmer supposedly has a 7/147 contract offer from KC.

Wonder what way this will push JDM’s
Contract.

That contract will doom either the Royals or the Padres for years.

Fangraphs has Hosmer worth over $20 million only 3 times out of his 7 year career. How many times is he likely to do that over the next seven?

With what we know about launch angles it makes no sense to invest in a first baseman with a GB% over 55%.

 

[bosockboy]

Be fascinating to watch Boras deal with what is obviously a massive market correction taking place. I’m sure he promised JDM upwards of 200 million and he may struggle to get 125-130.

 

[grimshaw]

Not that a lot of free agents have signed yet, but none have signed for more than 3 years yet. 7 just seems ridiculous for someone who has the floor of a replacement level player and ceiling of a good regular.

The Royals aren't going to be good - at least on paper, either. The Padres are at least rebuilding, so maybe adding a good player gets another 3 or 4 dozen fans a night.

 

[chawson]

Be fascinating to watch Boras deal with what is obviously a massive market correction taking place. I’m sure he promised JDM upwards of 200 million and he may struggle to get 125-130.

Not sure if it's a market correction or just a return to reality. Boras is great at pushing the Overton window of player evaluations as high as possible. That 7/$210 figure has been floating so long it's hard to remember that JDM was traded for what became the Tigers' #15 prospect, #25 prospect, and another who didn't crack the top 30. Not much better than we traded for Aaron Hill in 2016.

Back in August and September, a lot of reports from around the league were saying he'd be around six figures. This one has GMs and scouts estimating between $90M and $132M.

FWIW: JDM's Twitter account reveals that Fenway was on his "bucket list" and he signed the Green Monster. Also a big Brady fan.

 

[NickEsasky]

Be fascinating to watch Boras deal with what is obviously a massive market correction taking place. I’m sure he promised JDM upwards of 200 million and he may struggle to get 125-130.

Let's wait to see what Boras gets his guys before we start saying there is a market correction going on. If Hosmer is getting 7 years and over 20 million per year I wouldn't say the market is correcting all that much.

 

[MikeM]

Not sure if it's a market correction or just a return to reality. Boras is great at pushing the Overton window of player evaluations as high as possible. That 7/$210 figure has been floating so long it's hard to remember that JDM was traded for what became the Tigers' #15 prospect, #25 prospect, and another who didn't crack the top 30.

Back in August and September, a lot of reports from around the league were saying he'd be around six figures. This one has GMs and scouts estimating between $90M and $132M.

FWIW: JDM's Twitter account reveals that Fenway was on his "bucket list" and he signed the Green Monster. Also a big Brady fan.

I think the Martinez trade serves more to highlight just how much of a potential down turn in trade value this new CBA can have on rentals, especially in the case of upcoming LT offenders who are looking to unload guys and have a fall back negotiating option of taking the post-4th round pick. Which might also be a surrounding reality our own team faces soon enough btw.

Still think people are getting way ahead of themselves on this doom and gloom market correction stuff. If the Sox 5 year offer is indeed "we want this done" legit, I'd be guessing it's at $30m/per.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Could it be that it simply hardens Martinez' resolve to hold out for say, 6 years instead of 5?

Maybe, but that doesn't mean he'll get it. The only thing that's going to drive Martinez's contract to 6 years is if there are multiple teams trying to one up each other to get his services. If he's only got one serious suitor at 5 years (assuming rumors of a Red Sox 5-year offer are accurate), he's going to have a tough time getting six. What is his leverage at that point, sitting out? Going to Japan?

 

[DJnVa]

I just listened to the whole segment where WEEI talked about Martinez. 1. Nightengale was not even on. 2. Merloni said "130, 5 years, get it done" talking out of his ass, much like this post.

I never said Nightengale was on. I said that per WEEI, they said he reported 5/$130. They said "Newsflash: we actually have hot stove info about the Red Sox. Bob Nightengale has said the Red Sox have an offer on the table for JD of 5/$130"

And then they discussed that reports earlier in offseason were he wanted $200M and now the reports are $130.

So, no I wasn't talking out of my ass dipshit and I don't appreciate you insinuating that I made it up I simply posted what they said.

 

[moondog80]

Maybe, but that doesn't mean he'll get it. The only thing that's going to drive Martinez's contract to 6 years is if there are multiple teams trying to one up each other to get his services. If he's only got one serious suitor at 5 years (assuming rumors of a Red Sox 5-year offer are accurate), he's going to have a tough time getting six. What is his leverage at that point, sitting out? Going to Japan?

The market isn’t always 100% rational. We’ve seen many instances of teams bidding against themselves. And while sometimes players get burned, more often than not it’s the team that blinks. If Hosmer does sign for that, my hopes of JDM for 5 years diminish.

 

[nvalvo]

I never said Nightengale was on. I said that per WEEI, they said he reported 5/$130. They said "Newsflash: we actually have hot stove info about the Red Sox. Bob Nightengale has said the Red Sox have an offer on the table for JD of 5/$130"

And then they discussed that reports earlier in offseason were he wanted $200M and now the reports are $130.

Huh. Given that the $130 number wasn't in Nightengale's article, it's curious that it sounds like they attributed the number to him.

 

[jerry casale]

Since Manny we have signed Lugo, Renteria, Drew, Crawford, Hanley, Pablo, Dice K, Lackey, even Price to some extent to 5+ year, big money contracts. When are we going to learn? We won in 13 with Gomes and Shane on reasonable contracts.

 

[mfried]

I'm no longer that sure that JDM signs with the Sox, because they value the outfield defense they've got, and are unwilling to pay more than 5/130 for a DH. This creates a problem - forget homers - will we get rbis in sufficient numbers

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

I'm no longer that sure that JDM signs with the Sox, because they value the outfield defense they've got, and are unwilling to pay more than 5/130 for a DH. This creates a problem - forget homers - will we get rbis in sufficient numbers

I think he would be more valuable to the Sox as a DH than an OF. If you think about it, JDM is more valuable as a DH, because you get to add his elite bat and limit his poor defense. Any other team looking to add him as an OF needs to account for his negative value on defense. Teams like ARI and SF need to keep in mind that JDM may be a giant liability on the field towards the end of his contract. An AL team like the Sox knows that they can keep him at DH if needed.

He also wouldn't be "locked" into the DH position like Papi was since JDM could shift to LF in future years if that is what the team needs (ex - JBJ leaves as a FA). The Sox have historically been open to poor defensive OFs in LF in front of the Green Monster (limited range needed, strong arm not necessary, etc.). However, I wouldn't trade JBJ just to "make room" for JDM.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Since Manny we have signed Lugo, Renteria, Drew, Crawford, Hanley, Pablo, Dice K, Lackey, even Price to some extent to 5+ year, big money contracts. When are we going to learn? We won in 13 with Gomes and Shane on reasonable contracts.

I'll get the ball rolling

Lugo was signed to a 4-year desl, started at SS for the 07 WS champs
Drew was signed to 5-year deal, started in RF for 07 WS champs
Dice-K was a 6-year deal, started and won a game in the 07 WS
lackey signed a five-year deal, instrumental to winning in 13

Renteria was a four year deal
Hanley's deal was a four-year deal with a vesting option

In short ... what the fuck are you talking about

 

[jerry casale]

I'll get the ball rolling

Lugo was signed to a 4-year desl, started at SS for the 07 WS champs
Drew was signed to 5-year deal, started in RF for 07 WS champs
Dice-K was a 6-year deal, started and won a game in the 07 WS
lackey signed a five-year deal, instrumental to winning in 13

Renteria was a four year deal
Hanley's deal was a four-year deal with a vesting option

In short ... what the fuck are you talking about

Talk about nit picking and cherry picking. You're saying that Lugo was worth it?? You're saying Dice-K and Lackey were worth it??
The point is all those deals were vast overpays and I can't believe anyone in their right mind would pay $130M for a part time OF, part time DH.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Talk about nit picking and cherry picking. You're saying that Lugo was worth it?? You're saying Dice-K and Lackey were worth it??

If you're going to state things as a fact (5+ year contracts, for instance), then you'd better be right about those facts. You compared those contracts to the low-pay contracts of others and said they help produced a WS winner ... not even mentioning that one of your negative examples (Lackey) was important to that team.

In other words, your post was inaccurate factually, confused philosophically, and worthy of scorn.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Talk about nit picking and cherry picking. You're saying that Lugo was worth it?? You're saying Dice-K and Lackey were worth it??
The point is all those deals were vast overpays and I can't believe anyone in their right mind would pay $130M for a part time OF, part time DH.

Lugo was 4/36. $9M a year. Even at the time, that wasn't "big money" or a long contract.
Matsuzaka was 6/52. They had control of him for 6 years regardless of the contract he signed so the length really is irrelevant. As with Lugo, an average of just under $9M a year wasn't "big money" at the time.

And if you're going to cite Victorino as an example of a "reasonable" contract for a winning team in the same breath, you should acknowledge that his deal was 3/39...an average of $13M a year. That's "reasonable" for his one good year but Lugo's deal was horrendous? Both won a World Series in year one.

This is not to defend Lugo one bit, but your argument is incredibly incoherent.

 

[jerry casale]

If you're going to state things as a fact (5+ year contracts, for instance), then you'd better be right about those facts. You compared those contracts to the low-pay contracts of others and said they help produced a WS winner ... not even mentioning that one of your negative examples (Lackey) was important to that team.

In other words, your post was inaccurate factually, confused philosophically, and worthy of scorn.

 

[jerry casale]

You're still nit picking and cherry picking.

Lugo was 4/36. $9M a year. Even at the time, that wasn't "big money" or a long contract.
Matsuzaka was 6/52. They had control of him for 6 years regardless of the contract he signed so the length really is irrelevant. As with Lugo, an average of just under $9M a year wasn't "big money" at the time.

And if you're going to cite Victorino as an example of a "reasonable" contract for a winning team in the same breath, you should acknowledge that his deal was 3/39...an average of $13M a year. That's "reasonable" for his one good year but Lugo's deal was horrendous? Both won a World Series in year one.

This is not to defend Lugo one bit, but your argument is incredibly incoherent.

So, if Lugo was "reasonable, why did we give him away?
What about the $50M posting fee for Dice-K? That made twice what you're quoting.
And what about all the others I mentioned? They were lousy contracts and I hope the Sox learn from them

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

You're still nit picking and cherry picking.

So, if Lugo was "reasonable, why did we give him away?
What about the $50M posting fee for Dice-K? That made twice what you're quoting.
And what about all the others I mentioned? They were lousy contracts and I hope the Sox learn from them

What exactly should they learn? Sign players to good contracts and not to bad contracts?

I recall a certain 8 year, $160 million contract for a OF/DH that worked out pretty well.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

You're still nit picking and cherry picking.

So, if Lugo was "reasonable, why did we give him away?
What about the $50M posting fee for Dice-K? That made twice what you're quoting.
And what about all the others I mentioned? They were lousy contracts and I hope the Sox learn from them

Where did I call Lugo "reasonable"? I only pointed out that his deal was not big money, not that it was a desirable contract. You used the word "reasonable" to describe Victorino's deal, which was for more money than Lugo and they "gave him away" in the end too. How is that reasonable but Lugo a disaster? Because Victorino had a couple glory moments in the post-season?

 

[jerry casale]

What exactly should they learn? Sign players to good contracts and not to bad contracts?

I recall a certain 8 year, $160 million contract for a OF/DH that worked out pretty well.

What one was that?

 

[grimshaw]

Also - JD Drew was well worth his contract until his final season. Hardly a poor decision on that one.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

What one was that?

Dude, are you being serious? There are some expectations on this site that people think about what they post, have some verifiable basis for their opinions, and not just treat this like a text or Twitter account. Otherwise, you're wasting everyone's time.

And I'll give you a hint to the answer to your question: The guy's name rhymes with Manny Ramirez.

 

[jerry casale]

Dude, are you being serious? There are some expectations on this site that people think about what they post, have some verifiable basis for their opinions, and not just treat this like a text or Twitter account. Otherwise, you're wasting everyone's time.

And I'll give you a hint to the answer to your question: The guy's name rhymes with Manny Ramirez.

Well, read my original post!!! I said "since Manny" Read before you jump!
Everyone wants to nitpick. Dice-K had one good season, Lackey had a good season, etc. The fact is the sox have had a lousy track record for free agent signings and all I was say that in the light of Pablo, et al, I hope they don't make a mistake with JDM. All you guys just sit at home and wait to jump on the slightest little thing. I've monitored SOSH for over 20 years and it used to be good.

 

[jerry casale]

Where did I call Lugo "reasonable"? I only pointed out that his deal was not big money, not that it was a desirable contract. You used the word "reasonable" to describe Victorino's deal, which was for more money than Lugo and they "gave him away" in the end too. How is that reasonable but Lugo a disaster? Because Victorino had a couple glory moments in the post-season?

And the $50M posting fee??

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

And the $50M posting fee??

To be fair, who cares? Its straight cash out of John Henry's pocket that had no effect on the luxury tax and quite possibly no effect on the budget. It also had no effect on the Sox ability to acquire other players down the line.

The Dice-K contract was a gamble and was probably a worthwhile gamble because of his potential.

 

[moondog80]

Also - JD Drew was well worth his contract until his final season. Hardly a poor decision on that one.

To be fair, that's the only one of the group that I would say worked out. I'd say him, Manny, and Damon are the only deals of 3+ years they have made that were a net positive (maybe I'm missing one?).

 

[Adrian's Dome]

The Lackey and Drew contracts were good. Drew aged in his final season and Lackey pitched injured for a season and lost another one to recovery. No fault of their talent or ability, and both were instrumental in winning World Series titles at one point.

Lugo's deal hardly hamstrung them and he did fill a need on a team that eventually won a WS.

Yeah, Renteria's deal sucked in hindsight, but I don't remember anyone thinking it was terrible at the time given his abilties. He didn't love the pressure and he had a back injury, sometimes, shit just happens and things don't work out.

Jury is very much so still out on Price's deal, especially given he was also injured early on in it.

So, yeah...Crawford, Hanley, and Panda's contracts were terrible. Three horrible deals in a 15 year span? I'd like you to find me a recent big-market team that's got a better success rate. We could've been paying Ryan Howard 20+ mil a year or be currently stuck with Albert Pujols or Jacoby Ellsbury.

 

[cheech13]

Citing Manny as a "good" long-term contract sort of ignores that the team spent the entirety of his deal trying to move him and that he passed through irrevocable waivers unclaimed. That he was still productive at the end of the contract when inflation had caught up to his price doesn't override the fact his contract was considered toxic and a misuse of resources almost from the day it was signed.

 

[jon abbey]

It's also pretty silly to look back at just your team's FA signing history, every team's fans do this and it always bugs me. Lugo's signing is much less relevant to a potential JDM signing than, say, Josh Hamilton's or Yoenis Céspedes'. But however you break it down, big FA deals generally don't go well, which is one reason this market is stuck currently,

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's also pretty silly to look back at just your team's FA signing history, every team's fans do this and it always bugs me. Lugo's signing is much less relevant to a potential JDM signing than, say, Josh Hamilton's or Yoenis Céspedes'. But however you break it down, big FA deals generally don't go well, which is one reason this market is stuck currently,

Agreed. I'd go further and say that FA deals signed by past GMs (and the deals brought up here span four different GMs) really don't have all that much relevance to current events. I have strong doubts that Dombrowski is going to sit down across from JD Martinez and Scott Boras and say "you know what, this is a bad idea for the Red Sox because Theo Epstein signed Julio Lugo 11 years ago and he turned out to be a dud".

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Citing Manny as a "good" long-term contract sort of ignores that the team spent the entirety of his deal trying to move him and that he passed through irrevocable waivers unclaimed. That he was still productive at the end of the contract when inflation had caught up to his price doesn't override the fact his contract was considered toxic and a misuse of resources almost from the day it was signed.

Bullshit.

At the time Manny’s contract was signed, folks were elated that FINALLY Harrington had opened the purse strings enough to allow Duquette to acquire a hitter worthy of teaming up with Nomar and Pedro. The only concern, really the only concern at all when he was signed, was whether all that cash should have been used to acquire Mussina instead. But really, when you’re arguing whether the best solution is to build an amazing 3/4 lineup, or whether it would be better to have twin aces in the rotation, you’re arguing over flavors of gravy.

Sure, Manny was put in waivers at a time when Epstein thought he could make better use of those funds and roster spot — most likely by signing Vladimir Guerrero at the height of his superpowers. Epstein also tried to trade him for ARod. But just because some more complete all-around players later became available to bat 3/4/5 with Ortiz and Garciaparra doesn’t mean folks thought Manny was a bad signing at the time.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Bullshit.

At the time Manny’s contract was signed, folks were elated that FINALLY Harrington had opened the purse strings enough to allow Duquette to acquire a hitter worthy of teaming up with Nomar and Pedro. The only concern, really the only concern at all when he was signed, was whether all that cash should have been used to acquire Mussina instead. But really, when you’re arguing whether the best solution is to build an amazing 3/4 lineup, or whether it would be better to have twin aces in the rotation, you’re arguing over flavors of gravy.

Sure, Manny was put in waivers at a time when Epstein thought he could make better use of those funds and roster spot — most likely by signing Vladimir Guerrero at the height of his superpowers. Epstein also tried to trade him for ARod. But just because some more complete all-around players later became available to bat 3/4/5 with Ortiz and Garciaparra doesn’t mean folks thought Manny was a bad signing at the time.

Something else to keep in mind with regard to Manny is that a lot of the time, he was agitating for a trade. The whole episode where he was placed on irrevocable waivers was about sending him a message that no one wanted him/his contract for free so he would shut up and play.

 

[chrisfont9]

To be fair, who cares? Its straight cash out of John Henry's pocket that had no effect on the luxury tax and quite possibly no effect on the budget. It also had no effect on the Sox ability to acquire other players down the line.

The Dice-K contract was a gamble and was probably a worthwhile gamble because of his potential.

IIRC Fangraphs was valuing one WAR at like $6m back then (it's $9m now). After 2 seasons and less than $15m in salary, Matsuzaka had racked up just under six bWAR, before it all fell apart. So not only was it a reasonable gamble at the time it was signed, but it paid off for two years at a tremendous rate, until he got hurt. Really, the only argument for railing against the team (as opposed to bad injury luck) would be something along the lines of "everybody knows all those Japanese pitchers get hurt."

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I have strong doubts that Dombrowski is going to sit down across from JD Martinez and Scott Boras and say "you know what, this is a bad idea for the Red Sox because Theo Epstein signed Julio Lugo 11 years ago and he turned out to be a dud".

I guarantee you that DD won't do this... but he (and the rest of MLB GM's) are clearly sending a message that signings similar to Lugo aren't going to happen anymore- FA's on the wrong side of 30 for multiple years and/or for a major chunk of a teams working budget. Bringing up Lugo is unlikely but adding his name to a long, long list of overpaid and underperforming FA signings is a possibility

 

[chawson]

Since Manny we have signed Lugo, Renteria, Drew, Crawford, Hanley, Pablo, Dice K, Lackey, even Price to some extent to 5+ year, big money contracts. When are we going to learn? We won in 13 with Gomes and Shane on reasonable contracts.

The idea that there are abundant free agent options at "reasonable contracts" is a myth.

Here are recent FA starting pitchers and position players signed between two and four years. Contracts not underwater are in bold. (It's a snow day.)

2014 offseason
Arroyo (2/23), Baker (2/3.7), Beltran (3/45), Bloomquist (2/5.8), Byrd (2/16), Colon (2/20), Rajai Davis (2/10), DeJesus (2/10.5), Diaz (4/8), Feldman (3/30), Garza (4/50), Granderson (4/60), Guerrero (4/28), Hudson (2/23), Hughes (3/24), Infante (4/30), Jimenez (4/50), Garrett Jones (2/7.5), Kazmir (2/22), Lincecum (2/35), Loney (3/21), McLouth (2/10.75), Jose Molina (2/4.5), Morneau (2/12.5), David Murphy (2/12), Napoli (2/32), Navarro (2/8), Nolasco (4/49), Pelfrey (2/11), Peralta (4/53), Ruiz (3/26), Brendan Ryan (2/5), Saltalamacchia (3/21), Schumaker (2/5), Sweeney (2/3.5), Uribe (2/15), Vargas (4/32)

2015 offseason
Butler (3/30), Melky Cabrera (3/42), Cruz (4/58), Cuddyer (2/21), Descalso (2/3.6), Hammel (2/20), Hardy (3/40), Headley (4/52), Hundley (2/6.25), Kang (4/11), LaRoche (2/25), Liriano (3/39), Lowrie (4/29), Markakis (4/44), Victor Martinez (4/68), McCarthy (4/48), Medlen (2/8.5), Morales (2/17), Morse (2/16), Peavy (2/24), Hanley Ramirez (4/88), David Ross (2/5), Santana (4/55), Shields (4/75), Toscano (4/7.5), Volquez (2/20)

2016 offseason
Asdrubal Cabrera (2/18.5), Cespedes (3/75 with opt out), Estrada (2/26), Flowers (2/5.3), Gallardo (2/22), Gordon (4/72), Happ (3/36), Jaso (2/8), Kazmir (3/48), Kendrick (2/20), Kim (2/7), Lackey (2/32), Murphy (3/37), Park (4/12), Pelfrey (2/16), Brayan Pena (2/5), Pennington (2/3.75), Span (3/31), Young (2/13), Zobrist (4/56)

2017 offseason
Butera (2/3.8), Castro (3/24.5), Cespedes (4/110), Desmond (5/70), Encarnacion (3/60), Hammel (2/16), Hill (3/48), Joyce (2/11), Dae Ho Lee (4/12.9), Mathis (2/4), Morales (3/33), Morton (2/14), Moss (2/12), Nova (3/26), Pearce (2/12.5), Ramos (2/12.5), Reddick (4/52), Sean Rodriguez (2/11.5), Thames (3/16), Turner (4/64), Valbuena (2/15), Volquez (2/22), Wieters (2/21), Travis Wood (2/12)

The only guys with positive value the Sox had openings for were Colon, Davis, Granderson, Hughes, Kazmir, Morneau, Uribe, and Vargas in 2014; Cruz, Headley, Santana, and Volquez in 2015; Estrada and Happ in 2016; and Castro, Morton, Thames, and Turner in 2017. The rest of those guys are blocked.

The full sum of revisionist history positional player improvements is not large. Rajai Davis would have been better than our fourth outfielders in 2014-15. Juan Uribe would have been better than Holt/Bogaerts and Sandoval in 2014-15, though reports were he was comfortable in Los Angeles. Justin Morneau may have been marginally better than Napoli (dubious because of the Coors factor) in 14-15. Coors again, but maybe Nick Hundley's a better bet than Swihart in 2015-16, though it also would have blocked development time. Curtis Granderson might have been better than who he'd have replaced in our outfield from 2014-17, but he's a bad Fenway fit at the plate and couldn't cover right field like Betts can. Maybe Tyler Flowers would have looked good over our catchers. Howie Kendrick would have been better as a fourth outfielder than Chris Young (if he'd have signed for that). Headley was a better option than Sandoval from 15-17, but he may have been comfortable in New York after playing there the back half of 2014. Jason Castro had a better year at the plate than Vazquez and Leon last year, but I'll take Vaz over the next two. Finally, Nelson Cruz may have been better than Hanley as a LF in 2015, a 1B in 2016, and a DH in 2017.

Some short deals for starting pitching can be decent value. It's still plenty volatile, but 12 of 32 starting pitchers to sign between two and four years have been worth the money so far. Hill and Nova might fall off that list, but Morton's legacy is sealed.

Happ at 3/$36M looks better than Price at 7/$217M. We would have been better off signing Uribe, Lowrie, or Headley than Sandoval. Seattle struck gold with Nelson Cruz. That deal was widely panned at the time and we didn't have a DH spot open for him, but maybe he would not have been a defensive nightmare on the same journey Hanley took.

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

To be fair, who cares? Its straight cash out of John Henry's pocket that had no effect on the luxury tax and quite possibly no effect on the budget. It also had no effect on the Sox ability to acquire other players down the line.

The Dice-K contract was a gamble and was probably a worthwhile gamble because of his potential.

The Dice K deal might have actually opened up some business opportunities in Japan for John Henry which afforded him the ability to open up his wallet further on the team. At least that was what was suggested by some at the time.

And then there was all the talk about the gyroball, which was priceless if not worthless...

 

[Lowrielicious]

The problem with the "we won it in 2013 with Victorino and Gomes so why don't we just sign guys like that" argument is that both of those worked out at the very top end of what you could have hoped for. And it still took a bunch of other career years to make that team as good as it was.

Heres the OPS+ leaders from that team.

Ortiz 159
Napoli 128
Nava(!!) 127
Saltalamacchia(!) 118

If you are advocating "just sign this years Victorino and Gomes", then who would that be exactly and what would you offer them in terms of contract?
Trying to catch lightning on low contracts every year will result in a pretty poor team on the years where you miss. And you will miss many more years than you hit.

 

[Byrdbrain]

The idea that there are abundant free agent options at "reasonable contracts" is a myth.

Here are recent FA starting pitchers and position players signed between two and four years. Contracts not underwater are in bold. (It's a snow day.)

2014 offseason
Arroyo (2/23), Baker (2/3.7), Beltran (3/45), Bloomquist (2/5.8), Byrd (2/16), Colon (2/20), Rajai Davis (2/10), DeJesus (2/10.5), Diaz (4/8), Feldman (3/30), Garza (4/50), Granderson (4/60), Guerrero (4/28), Hudson (2/23), Hughes (3/24), Infante (4/30), Jimenez (4/50), Garrett Jones (2/7.5), Kazmir (2/22), Lincecum (2/35), Loney (3/21), McLouth (2/10.75), Jose Molina (2/4.5), Morneau (2/12.5), David Murphy (2/12), Napoli (2/32), Navarro (2/8), Nolasco (4/49), Pelfrey (2/11), Peralta (4/53), Ruiz (3/26), Brendan Ryan (2/5), Saltalamacchia (3/21), Schumaker (2/5), Sweeney (2/3.5), Uribe (2/15), Vargas (4/32)

2015 offseason
Butler (3/30), Melky Cabrera (3/42), Cruz (4/58), Cuddyer (2/21), Descalso (2/3.6), Hammel (2/20), Hardy (3/40), Headley (4/52), Hundley (2/6.25), Kang (4/11), LaRoche (2/25), Liriano (3/39), Lowrie (4/29), Markakis (4/44), Victor Martinez (4/68), McCarthy (4/48), Medlen (2/8.5), Morales (2/17), Morse (2/16), Peavy (2/24), Hanley Ramirez (4/88), David Ross (2/5), Santana (4/55), Shields (4/75), Toscano (4/7.5), Volquez (2/20)

2016 offseason
Asdrubal Cabrera (2/18.5), Cespedes (3/75 with opt out), Estrada (2/26), Flowers (2/5.3), Gallardo (2/22), Gordon (4/72), Happ (3/36), Jaso (2/8), Kazmir (3/48), Kendrick (2/20), Kim (2/7), Lackey (2/32), Murphy (3/37), Park (4/12), Pelfrey (2/16), Brayan Pena (2/5), Pennington (2/3.75), Span (3/31), Young (2/13), Zobrist (4/56)

2017 offseason
Butera (2/3.8), Castro (3/24.5), Cespedes (4/110), Desmond (5/70), Encarnacion (3/60), Hammel (2/16), Hill (3/48), Joyce (2/11), Dae Ho Lee (4/12.9), Mathis (2/4), Morales (3/33), Morton (2/14), Moss (2/12), Nova (3/26), Pearce (2/12.5), Ramos (2/12.5), Reddick (4/52), Sean Rodriguez (2/11.5), Thames (3/16), Turner (4/64), Valbuena (2/15), Volquez (2/22), Wieters (2/21), Travis Wood (2/12)

The only guys with positive value the Sox had openings for were Colon, Davis, Granderson, Hughes, Kazmir, Morneau, Uribe, and Vargas in 2014; Cruz, Headley, Santana, and Volquez in 2015; Estrada and Happ in 2016; and Castro, Morton, Thames, and Turner in 2017. The rest of those guys are blocked.

The full sum of revisionist history positional player improvements is not large. Rajai Davis would have been better than our fourth outfielders in 2014-15. Juan Uribe would have been better than Holt/Bogaerts and Sandoval in 2014-15, though reports were he was comfortable in Los Angeles. Justin Morneau may have been marginally better than Napoli (dubious because of the Coors factor) in 14-15. Coors again, but maybe Nick Hundley's a better bet than Swihart in 2015-16, though it also would have blocked development time. Curtis Granderson might have been better than who he'd have replaced in our outfield from 2014-17, but he's a bad Fenway fit at the plate and couldn't cover right field like Betts can. Maybe Tyler Flowers would have looked good over our catchers. Howie Kendrick would have been better as a fourth outfielder than Chris Young (if he'd have signed for that). Headley was a better option than Sandoval from 15-17, but he may have been comfortable in New York after playing there the back half of 2014. Jason Castro had a better year at the plate than Vazquez and Leon last year, but I'll take Vaz over the next two. Finally, Nelson Cruz may have been better than Hanley as a LF in 2015, a 1B in 2016, and a DH in 2017.

Some short deals for starting pitching can be decent value. It's still plenty volatile, but 12 of 32 starting pitchers to sign between two and four years have been worth the money so far. Hill and Nova might fall off that list, but Morton's legacy is sealed.

Happ at 3/$36M looks better than Price at 7/$217M. We would have been better off signing Uribe, Lowrie, or Headley than Sandoval. Seattle struck gold with Nelson Cruz. That deal was widely panned at the time and we didn't have a DH spot open for him, but maybe he would not have been a defensive nightmare on the same journey Hanley took.

This is just nitpicking.

Seriously though the initial post listed JD Drew as a bad contract. I generally see Drew as a baseball litmus test, the opinion of anyone who says he was a bad signing can be completely ignored.

 

[timduhda1]

This is just nitpicking.

Seriously though the initial post listed JD Drew as a bad contract. I generally see Drew as a baseball litmus test, the opinion of anyone who says he was a bad signing can be completely ignored.

This is when we need a “like” button.

 

[BuellMiller]

The Dice K deal might have actually opened up some business opportunities in Japan for John Henry which afforded him the ability to open up his wallet further on the team. At least that was what was suggested by some at the time.

And then there was all the talk about the gyroball, which was priceless if not worthless...

Don't forget that they brought over Okajima too, to ostensibly help out Dice-K's transition. Ended up paying him about $9M for about 7 bWAR.

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

Don't forget that they brought over Okajima too, to ostensibly help out Dice-K's transition. Ended up paying him about $9M for about 7 bWAR.

I remember when some experts claimed the Okajima signing was about giving Dice K someone on the team to talk to.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Just want to quantify how FA have done over the life of their deal. All numbers from FG except where noted

Manny value 150.9 million, paid 160 million (dif -9.1 million over 8 years, last 1/2 year with Dodgers)

JD Drew value 68.7- 78. 3 million, paid 70 million (diff -1.3 million to + 8..3 million over 5 years). B-Ref and FG WAR differs significantly

John Lackey 92.5 million, paid 83 million (+9.5 million over 6 years, last 1 1/2 years with Cards)

Daisuke 44.6 million value, cost 102 million (dif -57.4 million over 6 years)

Carl crawford value 39 million, paid 142 million (dif -103 million over 7 years, last 4 1/2 yrs with Dodgers where most of his value was produced)

Pablo value - 23 million, paid 95 million (dif -118 million over 5 years)

Basically of the last 6 completed and significant FA/semi FA contracts, 3 have been absolute stinkers. If you count Craig against Lackey then Lackey looks a bit of a stinker since all of his surplus value came with the Cards. So 4 of 6 didnt work out as well as hoped.

Jury still out on Hanley and Price, and Castillo I guess. I dont count Lugo or Reinteria as significant contracts so wont bother with them

Manny and Drew pretty much broke even. I think we got all we expected out of Manny, an elite bat. Hoped for more from Drew offensively but he earned what he got

Of course, throw Papi into the equation and the picture looks rosier. Picking him out of the dumpster subsidized a lot of future losses

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Bit of a nitpick, but Daisuke wasn't paid 102 million.