JDM

[chawson]

I agree with BP - there's zero chance that Hanley gets DFA'd now, even if they sign JDM.

Disagree. If they sign JDM, Hanley’s role would be a full-time pinch hitter for Moreland ostensibly against LHP, against which he put up a .276 wOBA last year (Moreland’s was .305), while we already have Brentz and Travis or even Marrero, who all hit lefties well and offer more defensive value. And you’d be risking that he’d not be upset giving up a starting role going into FA.

They aren't going to eat the $22m for 2018 (just to avoid the 2019 option) when there's a chance he can make a positive contribution to a contending team in 2018.

They might not, but they should. A player can’t go on the DL against his will, and Hanley will have every incentive to play through injury (like he has his entire contract) to hit 493 PAs.

If he sucks, or isn't healthy, then they won't have worry about the option because he won't get the PAs to trigger it. But if he has a 900 OPS, I don't see that as a bad thing, even if it triggers the 2019 option.

It’s helpful if he’s played an awesome, healthy season by mid-July, but you still don’t want to trigger his 2019 option, because there’s very little reason to think he’d be worth two-thirds of our available money next winter. So you’d cut him, which is awful business practice and would upset the players, or you’d trade him, but he’s got no realistic market.

It's not like the Sox are really going to be major players for Harper, Machado or Kershaw next offseason - none of those guys is coming to Boston.

I agree. But Hanley is probably a 105 wRC+ bat in 2019, and that’s not worth $22 million when we’re down $35 million post-arb against a hard penalty. Not when we’d still need to replace Kimbrel, Kelly, and Pomeranz and who knows what else.

If they really need to free up salary to resign (or replace) other guys next offseason, then it shouldn't be that hard to trade a 900 OPS Hanley on a one-year deal.

It will be. At $22 million, with his injury history and defensive liabilities, and with this many rebuilding teams that have no use for him, Hanley would probably have to OPS 1.000 for a team to overlook his 2015-17 work. And given their current rosters and windows, that list would probably be limited to a very short list of AL teams we’re competing with for a Wild Card spot, like the Mariners and Twins.

For perspective, Hanley’s got the exact same bat over the last three years as Matt Kemp, who is unmovable and a year younger.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Respectfully, I'm don't understand what's hard to follow. The first principle is that the Sox shouldn't want to pay Hanley $22 million in 2019 under any circumstances, no matter how good he may be next year. There's nothing hypothetical about Mitch Moreland being under contract for 2019, nor there being countless better/cheaper options, via FA or trade, who are better bets to DH for us in 2019.

Observing that principle, it's better that we address that now, for the reasons I outlined above.

If DD wants to blow over the $237 million secondary tax threshold and take the financial/draft pick hit, then you're right, my point's moot. But I have no indication they want to do that. Because of the draft pick, I hope they don't.

The Red Sox may not want to pay $22M in 2019, but they are contractually obligated to do so if he reaches his vesting option. Now, I disagree with your first principle there are no circumstances under which the Sox should want Hanley to reach that goal. If Hanley is OPSing a .900 clip and playing the average 1B work that he showed in 2016, he's certainly an asset to a team that is built to win in 2018. Doing anything to torpedo that chance in 2018, because of an eye to 2019, is the height of penny-wise pound-foolish action.

And as for Mitch Moreland in 2019 -- his 3-2-1 weighted OPS split vs. RHP is .771 (.246/.318/.454) is essentially identical to Hanley's .770 (.261/.328/.442) over the same period, and he hits LHP much worse. Moreland is a better defender, but a worse hitter than Hanley Ramirez, using stats that even include Hanley's execrable 2015 and poor 2017.

I think we're going to see an interesting platooning of Benintendi, Moreland, JDM, and Hanley, in a rotation of 1B/LF/DH. It may not be the ideal you're seeking. But it's at least based on the real.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

...For perspective, Hanley’s got the exact same bat over the last three years as Matt Kemp, who is unmovable and a year younger.

Do you mean Matt Kemp is unmovable now, or was unmovable a month ago when he got moved with 2 years left on his deal??

 

[chawson]

Do you mean Matt Kemp is unmovable now, or was unmovable a month ago when he got moved with 2 years left on his deal??

Both.

 

[bosockboy]

Do you mean Matt Kemp is unmovable now, or was unmovable a month ago when he got moved with 2 years left on his deal??

It was a salary swap for luxury tax purposes. Not for his skill.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Of course. But was Kemp unmovable? Obviously not. And that deal swapped bloated salaries from both sides but had significant value for LA because its share was spread out in a more CBT-friendly fashion.

Maybe the Sox find something similar with Hanley. And maybe the players swapped are actually more usable by the acquiring teams.

I think it's unlikely Hanley just gets dumped now and the $22M gets treated as a sunk cost, because one of 4 things will happen:
1. He stinks, and gets benched and doesn't meet the PA needed for his option to vest;
2. He's mediocre, gets platooned, and doesn't meet the PA needed for his option to vest;
3. He's good, Sox decide he's worth keeping for this year's playoff run and deal with the option later (when, having been good, he has some potential trade value, even if he needs to be subsidized); or
4. He's good, regains some potential trade value, even if he needs to be subsidized, and the Sox find a taker mid-season for something else more palatable (more useful on the roster and/or more forgiving from a CBT standpoint).

But I've made similar points now in 2 threads, so I'll hang up and listen.

Edit: I suppose under #3 the Sox could be bitten if he then drops off or gets hurt in the 2d half. Avoiding that possibility might make #4 more likely. That's when they'd go the Nomar route...

 

[soxhop411]

Anyone want to take a guess on who this player is?

I think it’s either hosmer or JDM

 

[keninten]

They should be watching Hanley`s plate appearances from opening day. The fewer PAs he gets to start the season the more valuable he gets. Keep him under 225 at the All-Star break. If he`s at around 275 we`d have to worry about the option. So from the start of the year make him earn his PAs.

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

Anyone want to take a guess on who this player is?

I think it’s either hosmer or JDM

I'd guess its JDM. If so, the two questions I have are:

1) Did he really talk to JDM (or JDM's friend) and get that info from him? Or is he just basing this off the Jon Heyman article from a few days ago? To me, Passan's quote seems like a reworded version of Heyman's quote. Heyman is known as a Boras mouthpiece. Maybe Passan simply read Heyman's piece, and than asked sources to confirm it.

Heyman: Miami acquaintances of Martinez say he is willing to “hold out,” certainly into spring training, for what he believes should be his market value.

Passan: Recently, one of the best free agents available this offseason met with a friend, and he admitted something shocking: He was preparing to sit out until the middle of the season.

2) Are JDM/Boras simply leaking this to pressure teams into offering him more money? Or is he actually willing to sit out until mid-season?

Sitting out seems like a horrible idea because a player can't just show up to the ballpark mid-season and hit MLB pitching. This isn't like RBs in the NFL who just grab the ball and run. Hitting 100 MPH fastballs and nasty sliders takes some warm up to get accustomed to. That's why Spring Training lasts 1.5 months. I doubt a FA would be able to go on a rehab assignment in AAA since they technically aren't injured. Thus, if anything, I could see him sitting out til late February since Spring Training games don't start til March.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Anyone want to take a guess on who this player is?

I think it’s either hosmer or JDM

Not much doubt it's Martinez. Hosmer is not an elite player, with plenty of cheaper options at his position. Martinez is an elite bat.

Plus this doesn't sound much different than the Heyman story the other day that said Martinez was considering holding out. No matter how many writers run this up the flagpole, he's not going to manufacture leverage.

 

[MikeM]

DD might read that and be tempted to think "so I don't have to commit to the albatross contract right now, but might be able to reserve the right to change my mind latter and after already getting an in-season look at my 2018 bounce back candidates? Sweet".

 

[chawson]

The Red Sox may not want to pay $22M in 2019, but they are contractually obligated to do so if he reaches his vesting option.

Understood, which is why they should get him off the team now before that pursuit is in motion, because there are many replacements available this offseason, in the summer, and next winter who have more reliable and projectable production. An elite option is JDM. A cheap one is Lucas Duda.

Now, I disagree with your first principle there are no circumstances under which the Sox should want Hanley to reach that goal. If Hanley is OPSing a .900 clip and playing the average 1B work that he showed in 2016, he's certainly an asset to a team that is built to win in 2018.

You’ll be disappointed expecting average first base work from Hanley when we already have a starting first baseman.

Doing anything to torpedo that chance in 2018, because of an eye to 2019, is the height of penny-wise pound-foolish action.

The Sox “torpedoed their chance” in 2017 by not signing Encarnacion and going over the luxury tax threshold, but did so because they had an eye toward 2018. The eye to 2019 is necessary because it’s multiple key players’ last year, and we need that $22M to pay for other improvements and arbitration raises without exceeding the $237M secondary cap, because that penalty is harsh and costs more than money.

And as for Mitch Moreland in 2019 -- his 3-2-1 weighted OPS split vs. RHP is .771 (.246/.318/.454) is essentially identical to Hanley's .770 (.261/.328/.442) over the same period, and he hits LHP much worse.

What makes you sure Hanley hits LHP when he was so awful at it last year? What do you do with Sam Travis then?

Moreland is a better defender, but a worse hitter than Hanley Ramirez, using stats that even include Hanley's execrable 2015 and poor 2017.

Agree, but it’s closer than you think. Hanley’s at .334 wOBA over 2015-17. Moreland’s at .327, and younger.

I think we're going to see an interesting platooning of Benintendi, Moreland, JDM, and Hanley, in a rotation of 1B/LF/DH. It may not be the ideal you're seeking. But it's at least based on the real.

I do not.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

No matter how many writers run this up the flagpole, he's not going to manufacture leverage.

Yeah, this seems like a nothingburger. Martinez is apparently in a bit of denial about the fact that being an elite power hitter is not quite the same as being an elite overall talent, not if you suck at defense and baserunning and you've had trouble staying on the field and you're past 30. That's OK; if he really thinks that threatening publicly to hold his breath till June will get him the megadeal he thinks he deserves from DD or anyone, well, good luck with that. If anything, this stance should make DD's job easier, as casual suitors (if any) will probably drop off as April approaches. And as MikeM points out, in the worst-case scenario, it would give DD the option of waiting to see how well the team survives the absences of Pedroia and EdRo before deciding how much it matters to add JDM this year.

 

[Gash Prex]

I think it’s crazy that because teams won’t give insane contracts to free agents, 7 for 250 or something, only 5 for 130, all of a sudden collusion is on the table. All the union has to do is look at how big money contracts have worked out and that will explain exactly why this market correction is happening.

 

[sean1562]

Who is giving him a 5.5 year deal at mid season that would be more than what they offered now? Nobody has an issue with AAV, just years. Seems dumb to throw away at least half a year, especially since a team can’t guarantee he will start the season strong, a season they are ostensibly dramatically overpaying him for. Honestly feel like we should just offer the Tigers a few of our lower end pitchers for castellanos, and see what the “fly ball revolution” can do for our lineup

 

[The Gray Eagle]

I think it’s crazy that because teams won’t give insane contracts to free agents, 7 for 250 or something, only 5 for 130, all of a sudden collusion is on the table. All the union has to do is look at how big money contracts have worked out and that will explain exactly why this market correction is happening.

And one big reason a lot of teams are not paying for free agents now isn't collusion, it's the luxury tax. Teams are getting $50 million extra but if they go past the tax limit, they will be hit hard by the new luxury tax rules.

The players union agreed to that, and now the owners are going to sit on that big pile of money because if you spend it, it hurts your chances of competing in the long run. The union blew it by accepting these new rules.

 

[Lowrielicious]

Anyone want to take a guess on who this player is?

I think it’s either hosmer or JDM

It doesn't specifically say a hitter.
More likely Darvish than Hosmer I would say. Maybe more so than JD too. Less innings on a pitchers arm by mid-season, particularly when he has gone deep into the post season the year before, could be seen as a positive rather than a negative.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

And one big reason a lot of teams are not paying for free agents now isn't collusion, it's the luxury tax. Teams are getting $50 million extra but if they go past the tax limit, they will be hit hard by the new luxury tax rules.

The players union agreed to that, and now the owners are going to sit on that big pile of money because if you spend it, it hurts your chances of competing in the long run. The union blew it by accepting these new rules.

Dave Cameron, in one of his last Fangraphs articles, makes a great case that, in addition to factors such as the luxury tax, the diminishing cost of free agents as Spring Training approaches and the possibility of collusion, the lack of divisional competition is driving the lack of free agent signings.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maybe-super-teams-are-ruining-the-off-season/

 

[Stanley Steamer]

And one big reason a lot of teams are not paying for free agents now isn't collusion, it's the luxury tax. Teams are getting $50 million extra but if they go past the tax limit, they will be hit hard by the new luxury tax rules.

The players union agreed to that, and now the owners are going to sit on that big pile of money because if you spend it, it hurts your chances of competing in the long run. The union blew it by accepting these new rules.

I agree entirely. It's mainly the luxury tax that is causing this financial restraint, with some contribution from loss of draft picks, etc. It no longer behooves a team to risk paying big, only to be shackled by the consequences for years to come. The players would do better in more of a free market, though team parity would certainly suffer.
Right now, the losers are the the young star and solid players, who don't realize their true value, and the customers, who watch a league that makes too much money for it's own good.

 

[nvalvo]

If it’s Martinez, that has me thinking the offer from the Red Sox is for considerably less than we’re all thinking.

 

[SydneySox]

And one big reason a lot of teams are not paying for free agents now isn't collusion, it's the luxury tax. Teams are getting $50 million extra but if they go past the tax limit, they will be hit hard by the new luxury tax rules.

The players union agreed to that, and now the owners are going to sit on that big pile of money because if you spend it, it hurts your chances of competing in the long run. The union blew it by accepting these new rules.

Those don't mean it's not collusion.

Those are things that also count, but it can also be collusion. It can, actually, be more likely to be collusion because of those things.

 

[soxeast]

A difference in OPS of less than .100 isn't significant enough to justify a platoon (it certainly doesn't represent an "extreme" difference). My point here is that if he's hitting well in general, pitcher handedness makes no difference....

Seasons where he hit LHP better than RHP:
2016: .796 vs RHP, .866 overall OPS
2014: .801 vs RHP, .817 overall
2013: 1.001 vs RHP, 1.040 overall
2012: .745 vs RHP, .759 overall
2011: .633 vs RHP, .712 overall

His OPS vs RHP tends to track with how he hits overall. If he's hitting well in a platoon (primarily against LHP), it's highly likely he's going to be hit well enough to justify playing full time. And no doubt Hanley knows this. This is not a clear cut case that it would work well or that the player would be amenable to it...even before the vesting option is brought into the discussion. All I'm saying is that the whole thing is a sticky messy situation and thus not something a potential trade partner is going to be keen on bringing into their house.

In 2016 Hanley vs lefties was 1097 vs 796 vs righties. In 2014 it was .869 vs .801. overall the numbers In 2013 he hit both great but vs lefties 1142 vs 1001. I provided shows he hits much better vs lefties. And he doesn'f field well enough to be anything other than a platoon unless you want to roll the dice. Moreland the last three years has shown he can hit righies better than Hanley. The stats show Moreland has hit righties slightly better and you want Moreland defense. Therefore isn't Hanley nothing more than a platoon? For this team unless he is hot there is no reason to treat him anything other than a platoon.

 

[SydneySox]

They should be watching Hanley`s plate appearances from opening day. The fewer PAs he gets to start the season the more valuable he gets. Keep him under 225 at the All-Star break. If he`s at around 275 we`d have to worry about the option. So from the start of the year make him earn his PAs.

The issue with this, as has been discussed a lot in this thread, is what you half acknowledge at the end of your sentence. If he earns his plate appearances then you can't not play him.

If Hanley is hitting and he is sitting, which rhymes which is awesome and I should trademark it ahead of the possible eventuality, then it's an issue. And, honestly, if the team loses wins because they don't play Hanley when he is hitting then it's more than a media distraction, especially if it costs us the division or a WC spot.

It is very easy to say 'sit him if he isn't hitting' but that's not a given and these sorts of statements are strong on the easy part and light on the hard part.

 

[MikeM]

Honestly feel like we should just offer the Tigers a few of our lower end pitchers for castellanos, and see what the “fly ball revolution” can do for our lineup

The whole splurge sell here on JDM revolves around the fact he's an elite bat upgrade. Key word there being elite.

The Sox aren't going to eat or bench Hanley's contract this winter, much less trade JBJ, in the name of adding a Nicholas Castellanos to the current mix. Although I guess the fact that more people seemingly don't believe that (yet) goes a long way towards explaining why there wasn't more outrage here over the Moreland signing and it's JDM or nothing commitment that came with it.

 

[Kun Aguero]

"Collusion theory. Or this is the consequence of the Players Association accepting a luxury tax that might be acting as a de facto salary cap. Or maybe it’s just that every team has figured out that prices go down as spring training draws closer, so now everyone is trying the same wait-it-out game plan. Or maybe these particular free agents just aren’t that good. Or maybe it’s that next year’s free agents are too good"

From the article by Dave Cameron that was linked above. This. The reason this hot stove is so slow imo is "a little of all of the above."

 

[In my lifetime]

I would also add a large factor is that the historically the 2 biggest spenders, the Dodgers and Yankees, in preparation for next year's mega-FA class have made a tax reset a priority this year.

 

[sean1562]

The whole splurge sell here on JDM revolves around the fact he's an elite bat upgrade. Key word there being elite.

The Sox aren't going to eat or bench Hanley's contract this winter, much less trade JBJ, in the name of adding a Nicholas Castellanos to the current mix. Although I guess the fact that more people seemingly don't believe that (yet) goes a long way towards explaining why there wasn't more outrage here over the Moreland signing and it's JDM or nothing commitment that came with it.

If JD is telling people that he is willing to hold out til mid season, hold on your offer until Spring Training and then move on. I’m certainly not outraged that DD read the market well enough to know JD wasn’t getting a 200 million dollar deal and is willing to hold on his top offer.

If we don’t get JD because he decides he isn’t signing anything but some absurd deal and will hold out till June, I am not gonna hold it against the GM. Took a calculated risk but the FA proved willing to do something profoundly stupid. Can’t build that into your offseason planning

 

[JimD]

I also think it's worth noting that the Red Sox and Yankees - two rivals who could be tempted to blow up their payrolls to try and take the AL East division title - have both been burned recently by expensive multiyear contracts (Sandoval, Ellsbury, Hanley to a slightly lesser extent).

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

I love the idea of acquiring Castellanos.

The way you succeed at this game is by getting JD Martinez at 26, not by getting JD Martinez at 30. Obviously that's harder! But there are lots of signs beneath the hood that Castellanos could be on his way to being a post-hype JDM type.

And with all the defensive problems that have haunted him for years I can't help but think Castellanos would be better off taking his glove off for good and just focus on offense.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I love the idea of acquiring Castellanos.

The way you succeed at this game is by getting JD Martinez at 26, not by getting JD Martinez at 30. Obviously that's harder! But there are lots of signs beneath the hood that Castellanos could be on his way to being a post-hype JDM type.

And with all the defensive problems that have haunted him for years I can't help but think Castellanos would be better off taking his glove off for good and just focus on offense.

If I thought acquiring him was realistic, I'd be leading the bandwagon. I just don't think the Sox have the chips for it. If we, as fans, can see the signs of a breakout being as close to imminent as it gets, the Tigers can see them too. They'd be fools to trade him for anything less than the Ozuna return, and even that would probably be light.

That said, if they could get him for Groome or Chavis an a few others in the top 10 I'd be all over it.

Among all hitters:

Barrels per PA: 37th
Balls hit 95 MPH+: 12th
AVG exit velocity: 77th

Out of hitters with 450 or more PAs:

Expected AVG: 21st
Expected OBP: 80th
Expected SLG: 29th
% balls hit 19-26 degrees: 1st (This is the most productive range of launch angles)
% balls his 26-39 degrees: 27th (This is the range with the most home runs)

He doesn't hit the ball super hard, as his top exit velocity last year was 110.5 MPH, but he doesn't hit the ball soft very often, either. 6th lowest soft contact percentage per fangraphs. I think he's gonna be a monster, and sooner rather than later.

 

[Devizier]

If there's collusion, which is a distinct possibility, then the players union needs to point their collective finger at the "small market" teams, which are presumably raking in massive television profits while paying minimal salary outlay for their product.

 

[sean1562]

OZuna actually produced and can play the field. They can wait for an Ozuna package if they want but I doubt they’ll get it

 

[timlinin8th]

I also think it's worth noting that the Red Sox and Yankees - two rivals who could be tempted to blow up their payrolls to try and take the AL East division title - have both been burned recently by expensive multiyear contracts (Sandoval, Ellsbury, Hanley to a slightly lesser extent).

They also both have serviceable outfields, and while JDM would be an upgrade, its huge dollars for a marginal increase. (JDM’s bat is an upgrade, but when you factor in the defensive downgrade the team may see that its overall wins just don’t jump up in a way that justifies the cost)

That is the case with pretty much all the competitive teams this offseason. The only team that really has a hole to fill is the team JDM would potentially be leaving. The collusion argument would have legs if many teams had holes in their outfield and JDM still wasn’t being signed, which would be a sure sign that something else was keeping teams from taking the bait.

As mentioned, the biggest reason those record profits are being kept by owners is because of a system that does not reward young players. The league minimum is too low compared to profits, and a system that sees its FA talent controlling most of the income in the player pool was destined to hit a wall eventually. Its becoming pretty clear that threshold is arriving. The goal of the next CBA should be to let players start making money sooner and lessen the long term control teams have over their prospects (maybe some kind of RFA status like hockey has would make sense).

 

[grimshaw]

If I thought acquiring him was realistic, I'd be leading the bandwagon. I just don't think the Sox have the chips for it. If we, as fans, can see the signs of a breakout being as close to imminent as it gets, the Tigers can see them too. They'd be fools to trade him for anything less than the Ozuna return, and even that would probably be light.

That said, if they could get him for Groome or Chavis an a few others in the top 10 I'd be all over it.

Isn't he basically what we could expect from future Chavis though, right down to not sticking at 3b? I get that even a terrible fielding 3b who can hit well has decent value, but his bat has just been good, not great. Ozuna was actually great last year and could likely play all three outfield positions.

As for actual performance -
Jay Bruce' last two seasons:
wRC+ 111 and wRC+ 118

Nick Castellanos'
wRC+ 118 and 111

Steamer basically thinks that's what he is too and has projected the same line. This article addresses some of your pro breakout points, but also notes that his launch angle went down, as did his flyball rate. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/breakouts-that-didnt-happen-nick-castellanos/

He's young and he can get better, but I don't think his market is anything close to Ozuna's. And he doesn't represent enough of a DH upgrade (where he would have to play) for it to be a good fit either.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

If I thought acquiring him was realistic, I'd be leading the bandwagon. I just don't think the Sox have the chips for it. If we, as fans, can see the signs of a breakout being as close to imminent as it gets, the Tigers can see them too. They'd be fools to trade him for anything less than the Ozuna return, and even that would probably be light.

That seems high to me - Ozuna had a 4.8 WAR season last year and had a 3.9 earlier in his career while Castellanos was only 1.7 last year and only 2.7 in his career. You have us paying for Ozuna's breakout when my interest in Castellanos is that we might be able to acquire him before his breakout.

 

[charlieoscar]

As mentioned, the biggest reason those record profits are being kept by owners is because of a system that does not reward young players.

You mean like a lot of the minor leaguers?

I realize that big pay comes with production and bonus money for high draft picks but the owners could make life a little easier overall on players in their farm system.

 

[In my lifetime]

If there's collusion, which is a distinct possibility, then the players union needs to point their collective finger at the "small market" teams, which are presumably raking in massive television profits while paying minimal salary outlay for their product.

Free Agents haven't been signed by Christmas and people are awfully quick to yell collusion, when the market has changed somewhat. The reasons for the slow Free Agent market that have been cited in this thread and elsewhere all include much more possible/probable reasons than collusion.
Including:
1. The change in the penalty for going over >20M/40M causing the cap to act as a harder cap
2. The desire and opportunity for the 2 biggest market/spending teams Dodgers and Yankees to reset their luxury tax as 1st time offenders
3. The potential for an outstanding Free Agent class next year
4. The fact that teams have been very successful in future years by taking almost a basketball tankathon approach. In other words, if a team is unlikely to be competitive, why not trade away/not sign players and in return get prospects and draft picks. Of course this is related to the non-competitiveness of many divisions throughout baseball.
5. Multiple teams getting burned by large and long free agent contracts
6. Big names being acquired in trades filling holes which may have otherwise gone to a free agent (Stanton)
7. The increase in financial analysis and age related decline in decision making in constructing a roster
8. The relative bargain of all team controlled players as they approach the peak of their careers
9. Boras controlling many of the better free agents this year
10. A pause in the market before deals jump again. It is not reasonable to expect markets to forever maintain the same level of acceleration.
11. Agents/Players overplaying their hands. For example, how many real suitors are their for JDM now at any where the level he wants to get paid. If it is true the RS offered 5 years/130 MM for a 26MM/yr average but JD wants 6 years/180 MM; I would think the final contract will be a lot closer to the RS number than JD's #. The end of these contracts have been extremely painful to teams in the (mostly) post-PED ERA. JD threatening to sit out after a career year is an empty threat, since his free agency was timed well following a career year. He also risks that the RS will move on and once they drop out from the bidding, his market will take a big hit.

I am fine with DD holding the line at 5/130MM. Every $ spent is a $ that can't be spent somewhere else including resigning/extending Betts, Sale and the other B's. If the cost has come down on Yu Darvish or another premier pitcher as reported (not sure the numbers reported are factual), I think the money might be better spent on filling up the rotation with yet another ace. Obviously injuries, trades, possibility of 6 man rotation (especially in light of Sale wearing down/Price's recent injury struggles/etc) and the old adage that you can never have too much pitching seems more true today than it ever has been previously. Even better if that is combined with a Nunez type signing to help while Pedey is out/and to give a break to the rest of the IF when needed.

All that being said, I still expect the RS to sign JDM and to give in a little so Boras/JDM can save face---- 5/135MM or 6/150MM.

 

[chawson]

I’d add that it’s increasingly more plausible that the US is nearing a financial crash—possibly a huge one—to say nothing of a war with North Korea. Perhaps owners are wary of taking on new long-term debt.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

Whoa:

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, Boston's five-year offer to J.D. Martinez is worth "in the range of" $100 million.

That explains why the marriage hasn't happened yet, as Martinez and his agent Scott Boras are said to be looking for a seven-year contract worth between $180 million and $210 million. There's talk that the 30-year-old free agent slugger might hold out into spring training to get closer to what he wants. Martinez batted .303/.376/.690 with 45 home runs and 104 RBI in 119 games between the Tigers and Diamondbacks in 2017.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Whoa:

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, Boston's five-year offer to J.D. Martinez is worth "in the range of" $100 million.

That explains why the marriage hasn't happened yet, as Martinez and his agent Scott Boras are said to be looking for a seven-year contract worth between $180 million and $210 million. There's talk that the 30-year-old free agent slugger might hold out into spring training to get closer to what he wants. Martinez batted .303/.376/.690 with 45 home runs and 104 RBI in 119 games between the Tigers and Diamondbacks in 2017.

If he hasn't signed yet, that means no one is coming close to what he wants. Sounds like this could be Encanarcion all over again. Good for DD in not going higher.

 

[mfried]

Five years at 100 million makes it seem that the Red Sox want an offer to be on record but don’t really expect him to accept it, nor do they want him on the team all that much.

 

[chawson]

Five years at 100 million makes it seem that the Red Sox want an offer to be on record but don’t really expect him to accept it, nor do they want him on the team all that much.

100 million may not be his asking price, but it’s definitely a serious bid. It’s more than the five-year deals we gave Hanley and Panda, and they actually played the field. (Kinda.)

 

[moondog80]

Five years at 100 million makes it seem that the Red Sox want an offer to be on record but don’t really expect him to accept it, nor do they want him on the team all that much.

My guess is they really want him, but they think/know he doesn't have any other serious bidders.

 

[RedOctober3829]

My guess is they really want him, but they think/know he doesn't have any other serious bidders.

Exactly. If Martinez had another offer significantly higher than 5/100, he'd have taken it by now.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

Whoa:

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, Boston's five-year offer to J.D. Martinez is worth "in the range of" $100 million.

That explains why the marriage hasn't happened yet, as Martinez and his agent Scott Boras are said to be looking for a seven-year contract worth between $180 million and $210 million. There's talk that the 30-year-old free agent slugger might hold out into spring training to get closer to what he wants. Martinez batted .303/.376/.690 with 45 home runs and 104 RBI in 119 games between the Tigers and Diamondbacks in 2017.

Here's the tweet:

 

[Wingack]

Here's the tweet:

No sense in offering him $180 when no one else is spending.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

They also both have serviceable outfields, and while JDM would be an upgrade, its huge dollars for a marginal increase. (JDM’s bat is an upgrade, but when you factor in the defensive downgrade the team may see that its overall wins just don’t jump up in a way that justifies the cost)

Win values aren't linear. A 2 win increase is worth exponentially more to a team expecting to win 93 games than to one expecting to win 83.

Isn't he basically what we could expect from future Chavis though, right down to not sticking at 3b? I get that even a terrible fielding 3b who can hit well has decent value, but his bat has just been good, not great. Ozuna was actually great last year and could likely play all three outfield positions.

As for actual performance -
Jay Bruce' last two seasons:
wRC+ 111 and wRC+ 118

Nick Castellanos'
wRC+ 118 and 111

Steamer basically thinks that's what he is too and has projected the same line. This article addresses some of your pro breakout points, but also notes that his launch angle went down, as did his flyball rate. https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/breakouts-that-didnt-happen-nick-castellanos/

He's young and he can get better, but I don't think his market is anything close to Ozuna's. And he doesn't represent enough of a DH upgrade (where he would have to play) for it to be a good fit either.

If you'll forgive a moment of snark...

break·out
ˈbrākˌout/

adjective
NORTH AMERICANinformal

1. 1.
   suddenly and extremely popular or successful.
   "a breakout movie."

That was sort of an important part of my post. Comparing the last two years to another player either ignores that qualifier or means you missed it. Regardless...

Steamer isn't designed to predict breakouts, so of course it thinks he is who he has been. That's how Steamer works.

Thank you for the link, though. I'd read that earlier today, actually. It's a good piece. The basic take away is that his launch angles moved away from the optimal home run range, not from the optimal production range. Here's an article by Andrew Perpetua that talks about how production breaks down across launch angle ranges.

Short version: 19-26 degress is the most productive range and Castellanos had a higher percentage of balls hit in that range than any other hitter in the game last year (among hitters with 450 PAs or more). The article you linked was also from a fantasy baseball perspective, which is a bit different than value on the field in real life.

And last point... Chavis's ceiling is, maybe, where Castellanos has been the last two years. Maybe. I wouldn't bet on it, though.

That seems high to me - Ozuna had a 4.8 WAR season last year and had a 3.9 earlier in his career while Castellanos was only 1.7 last year and only 2.7 in his career. You have us paying for Ozuna's breakout when my interest in Castellanos is that we might be able to acquire him before his breakout.

Maybe I'm overvaluing him, but unlike the Marlins, the Tigers don't have much reason to want to move him. He's young enough that they can build to win with him. So it should require significant prospect capital for the Tigers to be interested.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

DD has basically overpaid for every asset he’s wanted. Unless the ownership has told him to cut payroll (perhaps due to low ticket sales?), him slow playing has never really been his mantra. Nor has coming in late and aggressively.

So if adD really wants JDM this is not his normal mantra.

Unless, of course, this is how they value him as a player. Full time DH

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Whoa:

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, Boston's five-year offer to J.D. Martinez is worth "in the range of" $100 million.

Well, that makes sense of everything. It certainly explains the comments Passan reported.

This is all good. If the Sox' offer was really $100M-ish and no one has beaten it by now, then the chances of them ultimately landing him for well under $150M are suddenly looking pretty decent.

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

Whoa:

According to Buster Olney of ESPN, Boston's five-year offer to J.D. Martinez is worth "in the range of" $100 million.

That explains why the marriage hasn't happened yet, as Martinez and his agent Scott Boras are said to be looking for a seven-year contract worth between $180 million and $210 million. There's talk that the 30-year-old free agent slugger might hold out into spring training to get closer to what he wants. Martinez batted .303/.376/.690 with 45 home runs and 104 RBI in 119 games between the Tigers and Diamondbacks in 2017.

Interesting. I'd guess its a combination of scenarios A & B below, with the actual offer being somewhere closer to $120.

A) The Sox actually did offer 5/$100M. This means DD knows what the market is and is the only competitor. Good for him, but this makes it much more likely that JDM will accept a 1 year deal with the D-Backs or hold out through Spring Training.

B) Could be a leak by Boras to try to get other teams (who maybe assumed the bidding was closer to 120-150) to jump into the bidding. The fact that he states "in the range of" means it's obviously a number that is higher than $100M, but they want you to think its a low offer. The Sox certainly aren't going to leak their offer if it was that low. Thu,s I wouldn't be surprised to see a Sox leak later today saying something along the lines of "the offer is actually closer to $XXX."

Heyman (Boras mouthpiece) mentioned recently that "The interested teams are believed offering somewhere in the $120 million to $150 million range."