Lester: Stop Believing What You Read on Twitter.

[Tyrone Biggums]

4/$70 wasn't really a bad offer as a starting point considering that Lester really only had performed as a no. 2 with some stretches of ace caliber quality and stretches of no. 4 caliber quality up to Spring Training.  Tempers flared because the most recent stretch was his "ace quality" leading them through the playoffs... but there's been far too many no. 3 quality pitchers that have amazing stretches through the playoffs (Mike Hampton anyone?) that end up getting THAT type of contract and then fall flat on their face.  4/$70 wasn't a bad starting place at all IMO.
If he chooses the Yankees I'll be bummed but whatever.... I'm not upset about Ellsbury and I won't be upset about Lester going anywhere else.  

Why are people still putting the Yankees in this? They haven't been rumored other than on SOSH because people want to get mad about the Yankees signing yet another former Red Sox. If Lester goes to SF good for him. Thanks for the two titles and hopefully Hamels comes aboard at a much better contract and leads the Sox to two more.

 

[curly2]

Why are people still putting the Yankees in this? They haven't been rumored other than on SOSH because people want to get mad about the Yankees signing yet another former Red Sox. If Lester goes to SF good for him. Thanks for the two titles and hopefully Hamels comes aboard at a much better contract and leads the Sox to two more.

 
But obviously with Hamels it's not just his contract. He's going to cost a lot in talent to acquire, and young, cost-controlled talent.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

 
But obviously with Hamels it's not just his contract. He's going to cost a lot in talent to acquire, and young, cost-controlled talent.

Right but how much cost controlled talent can be on a competitive major league roster? It's awesome to see baseball america call this farm system amazing. But you can't field the Pawtucket Red Sox and expect people to pay Fenway prices. Eventually you need to cash in some to make the product better.

If people only want to see prospects then just drive 45 minutes down 95 to McCoy.

 

[Yazdog8]

 
But obviously with Hamels it's not just his contract. He's going to cost a lot in talent to acquire, and young, cost-controlled talent.

 
Amaro has to "win" this trade as it's his only valuable asset. His expectations are never going to line up to be reasonable.

 

[RedOctober3829]

@LynchieWCVB: Red Sox fans will want to hear the latest we have on Jon Lester's decision.

Anyone have WCVB on?

 

[curly2]

Right but how much cost controlled talent can be on a competitive major league roster? It's awesome to see baseball america call this farm system amazing. But you can't field the Pawtucket Red Sox and expect people to pay Fenway prices. Eventually you need to cash in some to make the product better.

If people only want to see prospects then just drive 45 minutes down 95 to McCoy.

 
If the centerpiece is Owens, the deal is fine. If it's Betts, it would really hurt. 

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

@LynchieWCVB: Red Sox fans will want to hear the latest we have on Jon Lester's decision.

Anyone have WCVB on?

I think it's probably the usual stuff of just recapping tweets and media speculation and then mentioning how the Sox could have signed him for 115 in the spring. I think that covers it.

 

[Gambler7]

Lynch is tied in. He doesn't say much but when he has something on the sox it is legit.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

4/70 is 17.5 million a year.  The starting point to these off-season negotiations seemed to be in the 5/90 range and then got to 6/120 a couple of weeks ago.  Now we are hearing 6/130-ish.  Starting at 17.5 million per season was not that bad considering Lester said he was willing to take a home team discount.  
 
Lester was coming off 3 seasons of xFIP:  3.90, 3.82, 3.62.  You start negotiations low and you certainly don't start with an offer of 6/120 when you know the other side is going to come in much higher.  Then you start working towards a deal.  Yearly salary is around 21.5 right now, not really that far off from 17.5 million especially taking into consideration that Lester was coming off 3 solid but not spectacular seasons.  

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

Lynch is tied in. He doesn't say much but when he has something on the sox it is legit.

Just said Sox are likely out. Won't match the offers from the Cubs or Giants, especially if someone goes 7 years.

 

[pjr]

Mike Lynch saying Red Sox will  not match the money or  years of another team.

 

[soxhop411]

“@RandyScottESPN: I don’t do this a lot, but I just talked to a source close to Jon Lester who says the Red Sox are absolutely NOT out of the running.”
https://twitter.com/RandyScottESPN/status/542086524444352512

https://twitter.com/RandyScottESPN/status/542086524444352512

link to tweet

 

[Kramerica Industries]

@LynchieWCVB: Red Sox fans will want to hear the latest we have on Jon Lester's decision.

Anyone have WCVB on?

 
Basically said Sox won't match money and years that Cubs and Giants are offering. It would "be over if Sox matched offers". Red Sox are out unless they up offer to where "they are uncomfortable"

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Please. Unless you believe that this whole FA bidding is just PR theatre, the Red Sox either botched the ST negotiations, or have nearly doubled their valuation of a pitcher they've known for a decade because of one good year.

I don't think that anyone is saying the Sox didn't have wiggle room in the offer. If the Levinsons wanted to actually negotiate then they had the option. You're a professional athletes at some point you need to put aside any feelings when negotiating a contract. When you negotiate the last thing you do is give your highest offer first. 17.5 million is not a slap in the face at all. At the time if you take out 2014 it was probably fair market value. Obviously 2014 changed things and here we are. You can't blast the front office for negotiating and then not getting a counter.

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

4/70 is 17.5 million a year.  The starting point to these off-season negotiations seemed to be in the 5/90 range and then got to 6/120 a couple of weeks ago.  Now we are hearing 6/130-ish.  Starting at 17.5 million per season was not that bad considering Lester said he was willing to take a home team discount.  
 
Lester was coming off 3 seasons of xFIP:  3.90, 3.82, 3.62.  You start negotiations low and you certainly don't start with an offer of 6/120 when you know the other side is going to come in much higher.  Then you start working towards a deal.  Yearly salary is around 21.5 right now, not really that far off from 17.5 million especially taking into consideration that Lester was coming off 3 solid but not spectacular seasons.  

17.5 million on its own isn't egregious, and 4 years on its own isn't egregious, particularly in light of Lester's comments -- but 17.5m for 4 years is pretty damn close given what Scherzer's rejection showed about the market; if you're going to propose a >20% discount on both salary and years as a starting point on the off chance that he just really, really does love pitching in Boston, you'd better be ready to come back with another offer.

 

[DJnVa]

 
Basically said Sox won't match money and years that Cubs and Giants are offering. It would "be over if Sox matched offers". Red Sox are out unless they up offer to where "they are uncomfortable"

 
If this is correct, then tonight's supposed meeting is the Come to Jesus meeting.
 
Lester's folks will try to call the Sox bluff, and the Sox will try to call Lester's bluff.

 

[Traut]

 
Basically said Sox won't match money and years that Cubs and Giants are offering. It would "be over if Sox matched offers". Red Sox are out unless they up offer to where "they are uncomfortable"

It's going to be ridiculous money. Like 7/175 or some number that the exceeds the high end of what folks perceive as reasonable. In which case, the Cubs make more sense than the Giants. But who knows? I thought he's gone since the spring of last year. Both Lester and the Red Sox knew his market value wasn't a fit for the club.

While they're better with him they'll be better off not paying him what he's going to get.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Right but how much cost controlled talent can be on a competitive major league roster? It's awesome to see baseball america call this farm system amazing. But you can't field the Pawtucket Red Sox and expect people to pay Fenway prices. Eventually you need to cash in some to make the product better.

If people only want to see prospects then just drive 45 minutes down 95 to McCoy.

 
You do realize that the word "prospects" is not synonymous with "career minor leaguers"?
 
As for your first question, I dunno, why don't you ask Brian Sabean? 7 of the 10 Giants position players with the most PA this year were either cost-controlled or homegrown and extended pre-FA. Only one of them (Pence) was a big-contract FA signing.
 
If the Giants ran their franchise the way some people here want the Sox to run theirs, they'd spend a lot more money and quite probably have fewer rings.

 

[rodderick]

17.5 million on its own isn't egregious, and 4 years on its own isn't egregious, particularly in light of Lester's comments -- but 17.5m for 4 years is pretty damn close given what Scherzer's rejection showed about the market; if you're going to propose a >20% discount on both salary and years as a starting point on the off chance that he just really, really does love pitching in Boston, you'd better be ready to come back with another offer.

 
Scherzer's rejection set the market for pitchers of Scherzer's caliber. A group Lester certainly wasn't a part of in March.

 

[soxhop411]

“@GordonEdes: Sox official had “no comment” when asked if Sox were still in on Lester”

 

[ivanvamp]

The key to this whole thing, IMNSHO is to not overreact and trade the guys we shouldn't be trading.
 
It's better to miss out on the playoffs in 2015 than it is to miss out on the entire career of Bogaerts, Betts, or Swihart.

I agree 100%.

Sign McCarthy and Shields. Trade Cespedes+ for Porcello. Give it a run. Keep the stud kids.

It may just work out great for 2015.

 

[Lynchie]

There's our 3s.

 

[ivanvamp]

Please. Unless you believe that this whole FA bidding is just PR theatre, the Red Sox either botched the ST negotiations, or have nearly doubled their valuation of a pitcher they've known for a decade because of one good year.

Or the market changed.

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

 
Scherzer's rejection set the market for pitchers of Scherzer's caliber. A group Lester certainly wasn't a part of in March.

This is debatable given their relative track records, though certainly a weighted 3/2/1 would put Scherzer in a different class prior to the 2014 season.

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

Or the market changed.

The Scherzer extension was rejected in March 2014; Greinke signed for 6/147 prior to 2013 coming off three years of 106 ERA+; Lester's position in the market may have changed, but the market itself was pretty clearly defined.

 

[soxhop411]

“@jcrasnick: I just had a front office person tell me, ”Don’t count out the #yankees with Jon Lester.‘’ Scout hearing the same thing.”

 

[JohntheBaptist]

“@jcrasnick: I just had a front office person tell me, ”Don’t count out the #yankees with Jon Lester.‘’ Scout hearing the same thing.”

 
So all things being equal, Lester would like to come back to BOS but willing to go elsewhere, and the Levinsons are now pulling out all the stops ahead of their meeting tonight with the Sox FO to get them to hit the number they want hit.

 

[Section15Box113]

“@jcrasnick: I just had a front office person tell me, ”Don’t count out the #yankees with Jon Lester.‘’ Scout hearing the same thing.”

It's no surprise.

But if They Who Shall Not Be Named are named as a potential player, who is the Mystery Team going to be?

 

[shepard50]

I certainly don't think we need three new pitchers. Nor do I covet two of the three on that list. But let's also at least acknowledge that the red Sox have gone in to the past several seasons with 6-7 possible ML pitchers. 'Deep Depth" has been the rallying cry since September of 2011.

 

[RedOctober3829]

@MLBNetworkRadio: .@Jim_Duquette on Jon Lester and the Red Sox "I've been told that they have stepped down in the process and its Cubs and Giants primarily"

 

[strek1]

@MLBNetworkRadio: .@Jim_Duquette on Jon Lester and the Red Sox "I've been told that they have stepped down in the process and its Cubs and Giants primarily"

 So does this mean we won't go to $150 mil OR is the bidding actually going to go even higher than that?

 

[soxhop411]

Farrell: “We’re still confident we can sign Jon.”

 

[RedOctober3829]

Farrell is speaking to the media.

@TimBritton: Farrell: “We’re still confident we can sign Jon.”

 

[Rasputin]

I certainly don't think we need three new pitchers. Nor do I covet two of the three on that list. But let's also at least acknowledge that the red Sox have gone in to the past several seasons with 6-7 possible ML pitchers. 'Deep Depth" has been the rallying cry since September of 2011.

 
Get One, Get Two, Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, Rubby de la Rosa, Allen Webster, Brandon Workman, Anthony Ranaudo, Matt Barnes, Henry Owens, Brian Johnson, Eduardo Rodriguez, Edwin Escobar.
 
That's thirteen. You can trade six of them and still have seven.
 
We don't need three pitchers.

 

[SoxLegacy]

I'm with Ras--the Sox can't (and I don't think they will) overreact and deal some of the untouchable prospects to get saddled with Hamels. I do trust the FO to have numerous plans--it's what they do for a living as opposed to those of us on here squeezing in the GM thing in between our real jobs. There is enough pitching available that the team can fill out a decent rotation with the kids getting good looks by the organization. With the projected lineup, the Sox will score runs and we'll see how the pitching goes.
 
As far as Lester goes, I think he's gone, either to the Cubs or SF. I'd like to be wrong, but the way this has played out I think the Lester team is holding out for top dollar. If I recall correctly, the Levinson brothers also represented Pedroia, and they made some comments after the Pedroia extension that made it pretty clear they didn't like the idea that he left a considerable amount of money on the table, (which is understandable from their perspective) so maybe they are driving a much harder negotiation this time around. Anyway, paying Lester in excess of $150 million for 7 years is not a good option IMHO.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Putting the pieces together, it would appear that the offers have moved to 7 years, and that the Sox won't do that.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

If the Yankees have any edge here, it's that they might be the only team that can offer Lester the chance to stay in the AL with a contending team and go beyond the Giants/Cubs offers.

 

[Corsi]

Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe  2m2 minutes ago
Farrell: "still confident" #RedSox can sign Lester. "Hopefully this is coming to a head."

 

[TigerBlood]

Fangraphs' piece on the legitimacy of Lester's 2014 revival.
 
Huge improvement vs RHBs, pitching them much more inside. The percentage of his pitches thrown over the inner third jumped by 10%, 39 to 49. Amazing to watch a smart starter adjust like that. Man, I want him back here. I'd give him 7 years.

 

[Yazdog8]

Fangraphs' piece on the legitimacy of Lester's 2014 revival.
 
Huge improvement vs RHBs, pitching them much more inside. The percentage of his pitches thrown over the inner third jumped by 10%, 39 to 49. Amazing to watch a smart starter adjust like that. Man, I want him back here. I'd give him 7 years.

 
6 years for a pitcher in his 30's is crazy. At 7 years I hope the Sox thank him and walk away. Nothing good comes from contracts like those.

 

[Reverend]

Paraphrasing myself: I'd generally agree, particularly for FAs, but in this situation (limited exclusive negotiating window, an opportunistic initial offer) the player/agent has little incentive to set a 'market' ceiling, and by sitting on their hands the team just loses the exclusive window; if they want the player, and want to take advantage of being the only available suitor, and haven't approached their limit yet, the onus is on the team to make a better offer.
 
My initial post was deleted, I'm not sure why. If this one needs to go to, so be it.

 
Many, many posts concerning whether or not the Red Sox missed their opportunity have been moved because it's been addressed many times over the past few months and pretty much any imaginable thing that could be said about it has been said. It's over. Done.
 
If anyone manages to say something new on the matter, that would be interesting and, indeed, worthy of a new thread. It's also, as per above, damned near impossible.
 
Also, and this goes for pretty much everyone--if you make 3+ posts on the same subject and they all disappear... incorporate this information into future behavior?

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

My optimistic take is that the Levinson's are indeed pursuing the Varitek approach (and have been ever since Lester's public comments back in late winter), this is all just noise, and he'll sign with the Red Sox for their best offer so long as it's in the 6/140-150 range. Fingers crossed.
 
My realistic take is that the bidding has gone to 7 years and, unless that brings down the money required, it's time for the Sox to go with plan B.
 

 
Many, many posts concerning whether or not the Red Sox missed their opportunity have been moved because it's been addressed many times over the past few months and pretty much any imaginable thing that could be said about it has been said. It's over. Done.
 
If anyone manages to say something new on the matter, that would be interesting and, indeed, worthy of a new thread. It's also, as per above, damned near impossible.
 
Also, and this goes for pretty much everyone--if you make 3+ posts on the same subject and they all disappear... incorporate this information into future behavior?

That's fair, just seemed weird that my posts questioning the FO were being deleted while the other posts defending the FO that I was responding to were (at that point) still visible. My bad.

 

[pjr]

Gordon Edes
@GordonEdes
 

 

Ben Cherington to meet with Boston media in 10 minutes
 
https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/542122487362752512


 
 
Fixed link

 

[Kramerica Industries]

FWIW, Sherman said on MLBN he sees 7 years 165 mil for Lester. If true you have to walk away

 

[cheekydave]

is this meeting being covered on any local TV stations if so is there a link?

 

[JCizzle]

Couldn't this be a scheduled thing? Seems to make sense that Farrell would give his PC, then Ben gives his afterward.

 

[PeaceSignMoose]

Couldn't this be a scheduled thing? Seems to make sense that Farrell would give his PC, then Ben gives his afterward.

 
This seems most likely.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Couldn't this be a scheduled thing? Seems to make sense that Farrell would give his PC, then Ben gives his afterward.

 
Edes reported earlier that the brass was meeting with Lester's agents at 4:30 Pacific. So, while it may well be a scheduled presser, the timing will draw raised eyebrows

 

[Corsi]

Couldn't this be a scheduled thing? Seems to make sense that Farrell would give his PC, then Ben gives his afterward.

 
Definitely scheduled.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

So is this on NESN? Or anything?