Lester to Cubs: Rent Garments Thread
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No rending of garments here either. If Lester wasn't coming back to the Red Sox, I'm glad he went to the Cubs. I can't complain about one of the good guys in the game getting paid the big bucks, and at this point in time the Cubs certainly need what he brings more than the Red Sox do.
Love the guy, I hope he does well in Chicago. I also hope Maddon screws up a move in the WS and is a goat forever.
I am not a fan of older players in this era. The Sox will be fine, they have tons of money and propsects.
I am not a fan of older players in this era. The Sox will be fine, they have tons of money and propsects.
The more I think about it, the happier I am the Sox didn't pay him 150m.
I love Lester, but he was mediocre at best from 2012 through the first half of 2013. If we would be getting second half of 2013 and 2014 Lester, then he's worth the $$ - but otherwise not so much.
I love Lester, but he was mediocre at best from 2012 through the first half of 2013. If we would be getting second half of 2013 and 2014 Lester, then he's worth the $$ - but otherwise not so much.
Put me in the "Wow, am I glad the Sox didn't abandon their plan and break the bank for Lester" camp. That is crazy money and the likelihood of it being a good contract at the end is fairly low. Heck, Theo possibly won't be around by that time and someone else will be left holding the bag.
No ill feelings towards Lester here, though I am rooting for him or the Cubs either. I understand (and agree with) some of the negative perceptions of Theo simply because in 2011 he talked about owning the mess and his responsibility, then bugged out to Chicago. And then there's the issue of Manager Smug at the helm of the Cubs.
Water under the bridge now...we have a very good GM and great owner so we'll be ok.
No ill feelings towards Lester here, though I am rooting for him or the Cubs either. I understand (and agree with) some of the negative perceptions of Theo simply because in 2011 he talked about owning the mess and his responsibility, then bugged out to Chicago. And then there's the issue of Manager Smug at the helm of the Cubs.
Water under the bridge now...we have a very good GM and great owner so we'll be ok.
I'm not upset by the 4/70 MM offer. If that's what caused a rift then Lester has pretty shitty agents, or he has the ego the size of Barry Bond's head.
DourDoerr said:
Once I have the ability to buy 700 Ferraris, the ability to buy 100 more Ferraris is not as important as where I'll be living, who I'll be working with, and how enjoyable my working hours are. (Note - I'm assuming I'm only able to drive one Ferrari at a time.)
***
On the bigger issue, I'm in the ranks of the mostly relieved. The contract is way too large a percentage of the Sox resources to sink into a player of Jon's caliber and age.
Mike Axisa of CBS Sports says that the Sox were never really serious about keeping Lester: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24877610/offers-show-red-sox-were-never-really-serious-about-keeping-lester
Hard to argue with the facts. The question is "What the hell IS the plan for the starting rotation in 2015, anyway?" Right now, as Axisa notes, it's about the worse rotation in MLB. We're about to find out.
Hard to argue with the facts. The question is "What the hell IS the plan for the starting rotation in 2015, anyway?" Right now, as Axisa notes, it's about the worse rotation in MLB. We're about to find out.
Jon Lester @JLester31 4m4 minutes ago
Extremely difficult decision for me and my family but we love the outcome and couldn't be more excited to join the Cubs organization! #NVRQT
Extremely difficult decision for me and my family but we love the outcome and couldn't be more excited to join the Cubs organization! #NVRQT
Not to single you out because obviously lots of people feel this way, but how many times over the last 30 years has a free agent contract been decried as "crazy money," only for the next TV contract to ratchet up the pay scale to previously unimaginable levels once again?SoxLegacy said:
That is just a ridiculous statement from Axisa. While 4/$70 was not a serious offer, 6/$135 was a serious, competitive offer. They got outbid by someone willing to pay more. It happens.
I agree. You have to assume there was more he liked about the Cubs situation than just the money.Rovin Romine said:
What facts is Axisa offering? This is total nonsense. And the next time I read something insightful by him will be the first.Pumpsie said:
This is where I am. Even if one of those players makes it to free agency, the bidding starts at 7/$170, and the Red Sox pretty much through their words and actions over the past year have made it clear they're not going anywhere near that level absent a generational talent showing up while still in their mid-20s. None of those guys qualify.ehaz said:
My main disappointment remains that they never made a real effort to sign him last winter or at the all-star break this season before dumping him for a player they no longer have any use for, and whose trade value is at this moment significantly less than the value Jon Lester had at the trade deadline. But acknowledging all that as a sunk cost, the Cubs overpaid, so it's hard to fault them for the decision they made last night in a vacuum.
Another real disappointment is in recognizing that they just weren't really all that competitive for Lester. The Cubs outbid them by $20 million plus an option year; the Giants outbid them by a guaranteed year and $43 million; who knows what the Dodgers bid, but I bet significantly more than 6-$135. So, you've got 3 of the best front offices in the game today who all were significantly more optimistic in their assessment of Lester than the Red Sox and in the process have just redefined what it was going to take to sign a top free agent pitcher. Does that mean the Red Sox see Lester as a significantly lesser pitcher than 2-time World Series champion GM Epstein, 3-time World Series Champion GM Brian Sabean, and supposed Wonderboy Andrew Friedman? O.k., they know him best, that's a reasonable interpretation. Or does that mean the Red Sox perception of what the market should be is seriously out of whack with what the market is? That's less o.k.
If it is the latter, then the only way this team is ever going to have an ace pitcher again is to develop one, or spend a king's ransom of developed prospects for one as well as a king's ransom in just money (a Pedro deal). But, under the current SABR paradigm, using ex-ante knowledge only, was the Pedro deal a good one? I don't think you can say it was a no-brainer, that's for sure. It's not much different from trading Owens and Ball for Hamels, and the SABR crowd here has made it clear that such a deal would be an overpay in their mind.
So, the way forward? I'd say the difference between what Liriano signed for and what Lester signed for suggests the new market inefficiencies may be the relative value of #3 starters and relief aces vs. #1 starters. There's no way Lester is worth roughly twice as much in AAV and more than $100 million in committed dollars than Liriano or David Robertson. The Orioles won with a #2, three #3's, a promising prospect in Gausman, and a 5 man deep bullpen. So, maybe the way to navigate these waters is to forget about Shields and Scherzer too, add Masterson and McCarthy/Santana to Buchholz, and hope that you get the Dr. Jeckell version of at least 2 of the 3 of them, giving you 2 #2-like performances. Throw in a reasonable season from the third plus improvement from Kelly and RDLR/Webster and you have the Orioles rotation. Unfortunately, most if not all of the potential relief aces have already signed, but maybe they can luck out and find their own Wade Davis and Kelvim Herrera from among the prospects.
The other obvious lesson, with the way the Red Sox are approaching this market, is that you have to develop an ace to have an ace. That means they have to stockpile prospects who have even a modest chance of becoming an ace. So there's no way I trade Owens, Rodriguez, Webster, or Barnes. If you can get value for Cecchini or Marrero, neither of which has a future in Boston over the next 5 years, then do that, but keep the young pitchers and hope one of them turns into a number 1A sometime in the next 3 years.
Plympton91 said:
Pedro was 25 when Duquette traded for him. Hamels is 30.
I think the hand-wringing and reluctance regarding Hamels is that there are three major downsides: 1) cost in prospects; 2) cost in money; and 3) uncertainty on his ability to perform for the length of whatever contract he gets.
If you take any single downside out of the equation, it's a lot easier to trade for him. Just like trading for Pedro was.
I should have said that was crazy money to pay for Lester, at least I'm my opinion. I see what you mean though and think it might not even have to wait til the next TV deal. If Scherzer actually gets $200 million that does make Lester's deal look better..Philip Jeff Frye said:
Feel bad he didn't come home, but of the other teams, he should have gone to the Giants. Looking at their key people and facilities vs.Cubs:
Manager: Bochy, hands down. He's the best. Maddon is top 3 or 4 I guess, but his schtick must rub some players the wrong way.
Catcher: Posey, top 2. Who are the Cubs guys? Ross coming in, I read. He's a plus with Lester.
Pitching coach: Righetti. [SIZE=13.63636302948px]Who's the Cubs guy? Hell, even the Giants other pitching coach, Mark Gardner, is credited with fixing pitchers that are lost. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Rest of the team: Giants now, assuming they spend the $$ on something else this year. Cubs maybe down the road, but a title within Lester's career? Who knows?[/SIZE]
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Fans: Maybe Cubs because of the generation to generation [/SIZE][SIZE=13.63636302948px]generation to generation to generation passing down of knowledge, etc. thing. SF is "only" since 1958. SF fans are really good though, albeit probably not as knowledgeable overall as Chicago's (or Boston's). Cubs fans are forgiving, SF also.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Ballpark: I suppose Wrigley is the other "shrine" or "temple" but it looks like an old, old park on TV and aerially. Fenway doesn't. I'm sure inside, the beer and mustard smells are similar; never been to Wrigley. AT&T is generally regarded as the best of the new parks. Don't know about Twins digs or any other brand new ones. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Lester probably wants to lock arms with Theo and go defeat that historic streak. Good luck, but what are the odds? The other 29 teams don't give a crap about it and want the same trophy each year.[/SIZE]
Manager: Bochy, hands down. He's the best. Maddon is top 3 or 4 I guess, but his schtick must rub some players the wrong way.
Catcher: Posey, top 2. Who are the Cubs guys? Ross coming in, I read. He's a plus with Lester.
Pitching coach: Righetti. [SIZE=13.63636302948px]Who's the Cubs guy? Hell, even the Giants other pitching coach, Mark Gardner, is credited with fixing pitchers that are lost. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Rest of the team: Giants now, assuming they spend the $$ on something else this year. Cubs maybe down the road, but a title within Lester's career? Who knows?[/SIZE]
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Fans: Maybe Cubs because of the generation to generation [/SIZE][SIZE=13.63636302948px]generation to generation to generation passing down of knowledge, etc. thing. SF is "only" since 1958. SF fans are really good though, albeit probably not as knowledgeable overall as Chicago's (or Boston's). Cubs fans are forgiving, SF also.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Ballpark: I suppose Wrigley is the other "shrine" or "temple" but it looks like an old, old park on TV and aerially. Fenway doesn't. I'm sure inside, the beer and mustard smells are similar; never been to Wrigley. AT&T is generally regarded as the best of the new parks. Don't know about Twins digs or any other brand new ones. [/SIZE]
[SIZE=13.63636302948px]Lester probably wants to lock arms with Theo and go defeat that historic streak. Good luck, but what are the odds? The other 29 teams don't give a crap about it and want the same trophy each year.[/SIZE]
Count me among those who are glad we didn't bump the offer. Theo was desperate and who can blame him when you look at their depth chart and pitching prospects. This wouldn't have been the first crazy contract Sabean handed out to a pitcher. We've seen how the previous ones have gone for him. I also doubt Friedman even made an offer. Good luck to Jon, they now have a decent shot at making the playoffs.
Brohamer of the Gods said:
The Sox were $20 million below the market price (maybe more if the Giants #s were real), either they had no real interest in signing Lester and the 6/135 was for PR purposes, (hey we tried but came in 2nd) or they hoped the 6/135 and its $20 million below market offer was the "hometown discount" they thought they still had a right to claim. But IMO that option expired when his they shipped him out of town, and his hometown address was a PO Box in Oakland.
Nice post Plympton.
I don't know why Scherzer remains in the conversation. He turned down 6 for $144 in the spring, Lester has beaten that, and I'll be surprised if he signs for less than $200 million.
Got to keep the alternatives realistic. I hear, for example, *we'll trade for Jordan Zimmerman and spare our best prospects." Well no we won't.
I don't know why Scherzer remains in the conversation. He turned down 6 for $144 in the spring, Lester has beaten that, and I'll be surprised if he signs for less than $200 million.
Got to keep the alternatives realistic. I hear, for example, *we'll trade for Jordan Zimmerman and spare our best prospects." Well no we won't.
Philip Jeff Frye said:
Yeah, and as I mentioned above, the Cubs have a bad TV contract that they will be renegotiating within the 6 years that Lester is with them, and so there are good business reasons on top of the baseball reasons for them to pay Lester the money.
Eerily similar to the Curt Shilling decision to come here. Both had World Series in hand, both were going into a situation that was a win/win. You win the World Series, you're the hero that took a chance on the underdog. You finish last 6 straight years and the curse takes the blame.
I'm glad we didn't get in at the level the Cubs did. Theo has proven he'll move the line in a desperation move. We won the World Series 15 months ago, not the same urgency to overpay from us.
I'm glad we didn't get in at the level the Cubs did. Theo has proven he'll move the line in a desperation move. We won the World Series 15 months ago, not the same urgency to overpay from us.
Rough Carrigan said:
They went after a fan, and not the players who screwed up, which proves my point. I wouldn't be surprised if Theo took Lester for a walk in downtown Chicago to show that no one recognized the team prez in public.
Harry Hooper said:
"See! Most people don't even give a shit about the Cubs! How awesome is that?"
[media]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADXs2C4Vmho[/media]
Put some money on the Cubbies. Its 2015.
Put some money on the Cubbies. Its 2015.
PaulinMyrBch said:
I want us to remember this as the 2015 season rolls along. There isn't the same urgency. Why? (1) Because the Sox just won the WS 14 months ago, (2) the Sox have won 3 World Series titles in the last 11 years (WHO WOULD HAVE EVER THOUGHT THAT WAS POSSIBLE???), and (3) the Sox have a TON of hugely talented young players either in the majors or on the cusp, and so could have a tremendous team for many, many years.
Even if 2015 isn't quite what we hope for.
The third possibility is that they're just not the serious any more about using their financial advantages over other teams (which admittedly have shrunk in recent years) to try to spend their way to a title. They'd rather milk the franchise, avoid 2012 disasters, and hope for the occasional 2013 where the Napoli/Victorino/Uehara second tier free agents mixed with the products of the development machine come together and win a title. Out with the Manny/Pedro/Damon/Foulke/Schilling approach of 2004 and 2007 and in with a cash flow maximizing strategy?Plympton91 said:
I'm certain this is what they're thinking, but I'm not certain that its not.
Doc Zero said:
There is none. It is attaching the emotional response of a fifteen-year old to someone considerably older and seemingly more rational.
It's pretty simple. He went for one or both the only two real things out there: the money and the challenge (either the generic new challenge or the specific cub challenge).
It's pretty standard psychology. Most people have at least a modest attachment to the status quo. But, once you break that attachment they often find that the change was good for them and not as scary as it seemed. By trading him, the Red Sox broke the status quo bias that is the crux of any "hometown discount" that may exist. They also forfeited the exclusive negotiating window they would have had between the end of the regular season and the start of free agency; though that probably wasn't much of a difference at that point.Doc Zero said:
Jon Lester @JLester31 · 38m38 minutes ago
To Red Sox Nation, I understand the disappointment. Boston will always have a big place in my heart and we'll always consider y'all family!
To Red Sox Nation, I understand the disappointment. Boston will always have a big place in my heart and we'll always consider y'all family!
They've done enough spending over the past decade plus that I don't think that's it. Plus, they just ponied up for Ramirez and Sandoval, both of whom are on the young side for free agents. Take Henry's words about avoiding the big commitments for age 34+ years 5 years forward at face value, and all this makes sense in that context.Philip Jeff Frye said:
It makes it necessary to change your fan DNA and start rooting for the Boston Rotisserie Sox, but it's a rational win maximizing strategy. And, if win maximizing is interest maximizing, then they'll be better off financially too. Taking into account the ratio of young fans for whom real life rotisserie has been all they've known and casual fans who can't name half the roster anyway but know when the team is in first place to people who remember when Yaz popped up to Nettles on a pitch from Gossage, and they're probably going to be fine. But, for those latter fans, maybe they'll be watching 60 games a year instead of 100, and caring a little less when the team loses. And, maybe that's healthier for them too.
Plympton91 said:
Where are you getting this from? If the Red Sox trade Cespedes for something less than a prospect and a few lottery tickets, then you'll have a right to be upset, but there seems to be some decent interest in him out there given the lack of power in baseball right now.
Again, all three teams were in the NL, where the pitcher batting makes going thru the line-ups much easier. Therefore, it's not at all surprising that those teams were "significantly more optimistic," and that we don't have any evidence of an AL team willing to tread in those waters, except for the Sox, who have a history with him.
Well recent reports had both the Red Sox and the Cubs at $135 until Theo bumped it another $20 million - possibly by $35 million if year 7 comes to pass. And that got the job done, so good for him. But this became an auction, and the Red Sox decided that $135 was their best offer. How do we know that if Boston had gone to $155 that the next call wouldn't have been to Chicago to see if they would go to $160? Even with this deal, the Cub's payroll this year is about $70 million - obviously with many more slots to fill. They have a ton of money to spend, and they did so.bankshot1 said:
I also don't buy the no real interest line. $135 million is a fuckload of money, if Lester had accepted it was Ben going to say "just kidding?" Finally, seeing how this all played out with Lester raising the price with multiple bidders, I just don't see any sense to believe he was going to take a $110/115 offer last spring.
Yeah, I see what you're saying, but I think there's mitigating factors with both of those guys. Ramirez apparently sought them out, offered to move to a different position and, if healthy, is probably a bargain. The Sox probably figure their cutting edge medical team can keep him on the field and they're getting him cheap relative to his offensive potential if that bet pays off. Sandoval fills a huge black hole on the team and is a very marketable player, just the sort of personality they're going to need if they can't count on 95 win seasons to fill the seats.Plympton91 said:
They're never going to take the payroll down into Royals/Rays territory (that would also be detrimental to a profit maximizing strategy for this team), but the days of us trailing only the Yankees are clearly over.
Disagree. The logical conclusion of your argument is that all ballplayers should be content with an annual salary equal to one Ferrari (or maybe more fairly, the amount of goods and services they can expect to use at once). Even if I was a hundred-millionaire, $20 million makes a difference -- it's just more about your grandchildren's chance at ensured financial security than your own at that point. Also, I don't think it's a given assumption that the clubhouse/enjoyable coworker situation is that different between Boston and Chicago.Rovin Romine said:
Al Zarilla said:
Better than what Giants fans got when Pablo left. First post on Sandoval's instagram after the signing was a pic of him doing the Hanley "goggles" thing.
In 2014, Jon Lester improved his ERA and FIP by more than a run compared to his 2011-13 norms. If 6/155 is an outlandish sum now, then 6/120 was downright ridiculous a year ago, when Lester was a year away from free agency and hadn't unexpectedly regained his 2009-10 form (and then some).
I agree with the current SoSH conventional wisdom -- that's way too much money for a SP not named Clayton Kershaw. I'm just wondering where that common sense has been for the past year.
I agree with the current SoSH conventional wisdom -- that's way too much money for a SP not named Clayton Kershaw. I'm just wondering where that common sense has been for the past year.
Not even sure Wood projects to start as Wada and Hendricks will probably get first crack at the remaining spots.foulkehampshire said:
Not a long track record for some of the arms, but assuming Arrieta can approach what he did in 2014, they've got two legitimate aces out there.
maufman said:
This is exactly right. I'm sad to see him go, but that's a bad deal. It might work out for the Cubs — especially since there's value for them in reestablishing their legitimacy as a contender — but there's a better than even chance that it looks really grim in a few years.
But Theo and Jed know this. With the amount of young talent they have coming in, they might just not care.
I don't hate Theo or anything, but the bloom is definitely off the rose for me. Everyone's entitled to their opinion, but yeah 2011 and his explanation for leaving were both a bit unseemly to me, with the flipside being they also were signals it was really time for him to go. And oddly, I can't think of anyone better poised to pitch the idea of leaving the awful, oppressive existence being a high profile Red Sox employee entails.
You have to give him credit though--his neck is on the line, at least in part because he has done a mighty impressive sell job on Chicago's future. I mean, they do look like they could be stacked, but he's got many, many people--Lester included, apparently--talking about his eventual legacy from Cubs WS wins based on a bunch of hot looking prospects and a manager that's never won anything.
You have to give him credit though--his neck is on the line, at least in part because he has done a mighty impressive sell job on Chicago's future. I mean, they do look like they could be stacked, but he's got many, many people--Lester included, apparently--talking about his eventual legacy from Cubs WS wins based on a bunch of hot looking prospects and a manager that's never won anything.
The next time a 25-27 year old healthy Pedro is available back up the truck. Until then, develop your own pitchers.
If this board is going to turn into ridiculous posts of the Red Sox didn't care" or "the Red Sox don't know what they are doing" just go away.
If this board is going to turn into ridiculous posts of the Red Sox didn't care" or "the Red Sox don't know what they are doing" just go away.