NY minor league prospect news (2023 edition)

jon abbey

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TJ Rumfield is a 1B in AA, a 12th round pick in 2021 by the Phillies, NY traded for him in the Nick Nelson deal in Nov 2021. He had an OK 2022 regular season but was great in the AFL (1.059 OPS, 3rd in the league) and started this year in AA. He currently has 12 HRs in 157 ABs, including one each the last five games in a row.
 

jon abbey

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Estevan Florial is quietly going nuts in AAA, 2 HRs today giving him 17 in 200 ABs and a 1.053 OPS.

Both HRs today were off LHP (he is a LHH), one off Sean Doolittle and the other off a guy who had never allowed a HR to a LHH before in over 100 games pitched.
 

terrynever

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Estevan Florial is quietly going nuts in AAA, 2 HRs today giving him 17 in 200 ABs and a 1.053 OPS.

Both HRs today were off LHP (he is a LHH), one off Sean Doolittle and the other off a guy who had never allowed a HR to a LHH before in over 100 games pitched.
Too bad Bader returns Friday. Love to see an OF of McKinney, Florial and Bauers. Already been fun to watch McKinney and Bauers chase down deep fly balls. And their ABs have been better than anyone else in an impatient offense. They actually work counts!
 

jon abbey

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Everson Pereira promoted to AAA, maybe they'll give him more of a chance than Florial since he's already on the 40 man.
 

jon abbey

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Pereira still going nuts through 3 games in AAA, 8-14 and a 1.457 OPS. There’s a real chance that he and Florial would be NY’s best corner OF options right now, Pereira has played some LF this year after basically only CF coming up.
 

jon abbey

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The top of the 2017 prospect class has a very high success rate, here is the BA list (very sorry Sox fans, trigger warning):


1. Wander Franco ss DR Rays bba_video_icon_red
2. Daniel Flores c VZ Red Sox bba_video_icon_red
3. Ronny Mauricio ss DR Mets bba_video_icon_red
4. Everson Pereira of VZ Yankees bba_video_icon_red
5. George Valera of DR Indians bba_video_icon_red
6. Julio Rodriguez of DR Mariners bba_video_icon_red
 

jon abbey

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Drew Thorpe was NY's 2nd round pick last summer and is quickly climbing the ranks of their top pitching prospects, he might even be first already. He is in high A and has allowed just 1 ER total in his last six starts, over 40.2 innings!! The AA rotation is crowded but he should get promoted soon anyway, clearly he is too good for high A.

https://www.milb.com/player/drew-thorpe-689672?stats=gamelogs-r-pitching-mlb&year=2023
 

jon abbey

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NY has six prospects in the new BA top 100, although none in the top 50. Hampton is especially exciting (I wrote about him some above) as he was a sixth round pick just last summer.

#56 Oswald Peraza
#60 Chase Hampton
#71 Jasson Dominguez
#86 Everson Pereira
#96 Austin Wells
#98 Spencer Jones
 

jon abbey

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No one in the top 50 and somehow Peraza hasn't graduated, but NY has 7 in BA's new top 100 list:

57. Oswaldo Peraza
58. Chase Hampton
64. Jasson Dominguez
79. Everson Pereira
85. Austin Wells
86. Spencer Jones
97. Roderick Arias

Hampton's rise is pretty incredible, 6th round pick in 2022.
 

jon abbey

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Prospect lists are pretty much necessarily always behind reality, it's just a question of how much. Rarely have a couple of national ones looked as behind as quickly as the BA and MLB lists just published yesterday, after Drew Thorpe's masterful debut in AA against a Mets team featuring recent acquisitions/top 100 prospects Acuna and Gilbert, Thorpe was a dominant 8 2 0 0 0 9 on just 93 pitches.

Some prefer Hampton but from my limited knowledge it seems clear that Thorpe is NY's #1 SP prospect currently, flying upwards with a bullet, what a way to debut in AA!!!! Hampton and Thorpe are both 2022 picks already in AA, 6th and 2nd rounders, so they don't have to be protected yet either.

https://www.milb.com/gameday/rumble-ponies-vs-patriots/2023/08/11/723906/final/box
 

jon abbey

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On the flip side, I don't get why Austin Wells is a top 100 guy for some people when it's completely unclear what position that would be at. He has only caught (and DHd) in his three years in the minors so far, but no one seems to think he can stick there in MLB. Much like with Miguel Andujar, NY refuses to accept this reality and play him at least some at a position where he could maybe succeed (1B?). Now he is about to be rule 5 eligible so they will likely protect him and then have 4 catchers on the 40 man (my guess) because they don't trust Wells to be an emergency catcher (again, my guess), and Agustin Ramirez behind him (21 and just up to AA) seems like he has a much better chance to actually stick at C and so they have to protect him also, he is NY's hottest hitter in the minors the last month or so.

Wells was compared to Kyle Schwarber (former bad C, now horrific OF) from the start, I would of course sign up for that but they need to figure out how to get him in the lineup without killing themselves defensively. A lefty power bat in Yankee Stadium though is of course always quite welcome, especially these last few years.
 

jon abbey

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Prospect lists are pretty much necessarily always behind reality, it's just a question of how much. Rarely have a couple of national ones looked as behind as quickly as the BA and MLB lists just published yesterday, after Drew Thorpe's masterful debut in AA against a Mets team featuring recent acquisitions/top 100 prospects Acuna and Gilbert, Thorpe was a dominant 8 2 0 0 0 9 on just 93 pitches.

Some prefer Hampton but from my limited knowledge it seems clear that Thorpe is NY's #1 SP prospect currently, flying upwards with a bullet, what a way to debut in AA!!!! Hampton and Thorpe are both 2022 picks already in AA, 6th and 2nd rounders, so they don't have to be protected yet either.

https://www.milb.com/gameday/rumble-ponies-vs-patriots/2023/08/11/723906/final/box
Just saw that Thorpe's 147 Ks (in 117 innings) leads all of minor league baseball.
 

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MLB Pipeline just updated their top 100 and they have Jones, Dominguez, and Pereira right in row at 79, 80, and 81. Just because it is interesting they have Rafaela at 78 and Alcantara at 77.

They don’t have either pitcher on the list but did talk on the podcast that there were front office people they talked to that thought Hampton should be on it.
 

jon abbey

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MLB Pipeline just updated their top 100 and they have Jones, Dominguez, and Pereira right in row at 79, 80, and 81. Just because it is interesting they have Rafaela at 78 and Alcantara at 77.

They don’t have either pitcher on the list but did talk on the podcast that there were front office people they talked to that thought Hampton should be on it.
Yeah, I don’t think they did a great job with that list from the little I’ve looked at it so far, Thorpe is 10th for NY prospects.
 

jon abbey

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All three of these NY SPs are in AA now:

8 MiLB Pitchers have 130+ K on the season:

Drew Thorpe (NYY): 147
Connor Phillips (CIN): 145
Joe Boyle (OAK): 142
Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS): 136
Robert Gasser (MIL): 133
Chase Hampton (NYY): 133
Angel Bastardo (BOS): 132
Richard Fitts (NYY): 130

Those 8 ranked by BB/9:

Richard Fitts (NYY): 2.3
Drew Thorpe (NYY): 2.5
Chase Hampton (NYY): 3.4
Robert Gasser (MIL): 3.6
Angel Bastardo (BOS): 3.7
Connor Phillips (CIN): 4.7
Wikelman Gonzalez (BOS): 6.0
Joe Boyle (OAK): 7.6
 

jon abbey

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Still pretty happy with the Spencer Jones pick, but a lot of people at the time thought Cashman should have taken Drew Gilbert, another college OF who went three picks later.

But as usual Cashman went for the giant, Jones is 6’6” to Gilbert’s 5’9”, now Gilbert is demolishing AA while Jones is putting up a fine but not outstanding year one level lower.
 

jon abbey

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Austin Wells with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs today in AAA, Peraza 3-4, Pereira 3 runs scored.

So awesome that these guys are all still in AAA!!!
 

jon abbey

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Drew Thorpe seems to immediately be too good for AA, his three starts there so far, on three consecutive Fridays (so six days rest, his innings are up to 130):

8 2 0 0 0 9 (93 pitches)

6.2 5 2 2 1 12 (the two runs were HRs to the last two batters he faced in the 7th, with a 10-0 lead about 100 pitches in, finished at 103)

6.1 2 1 1 1 9 (again he didn't allow a hit or a run until the 6th when his team was up 7-0, 87 pitches)

I think that is most impressive if you figure out the average of those three starts:

7 3 1 1 1 10 on 94 pitches, three times in a row, first three games in AA.

That AA rotation right now is really something, not just Thorpe and Hampton but also Richard Fitts has been by far the best SP in the league since mid-May (he hit 97 on his 101st pitch last night), all three in the top 10 in all of minor league baseball in Ks this season (Thorpe is 1st). Fitts at least highly deserves promotion (the other two just got there) but they are probably all running into innings limits also.

https://www.milb.com/player/richard-fitts-690916

Damn, Fitts has allowed just 23 total ERs in his last 16 starts.
 

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What’s Thorpe’s upside? I see MLB has him as a middle rotation guy and likes Hampton’s arsenal better, but Thorpe keeps crushing.
 

jon abbey

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What’s Thorpe’s upside? I see MLB has him as a middle rotation guy and likes Hampton’s arsenal better, but Thorpe keeps crushing.
NY has a recent history of pretty frequently being able to add a few MPH to drafted SPs in their first few years in the system, and then of course everything changes. People thought NY overdrafted him at #61 (2nd round) in 2022, but clearly they loved him and he has been amazing and only getting better, very good in high A but now dominant, decidedly better, in AA early on. I know his killer pitch right now is his change, but somehow he is getting massive K numbers as well as low pitch counts.
 

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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Nothing definitive yet, but a lot of buzz that Spencer Jones will be promoted to AA for tomorrow’s game.
 

jon abbey

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I wrote above 16 days ago:

On the flip side, I don't get why Austin Wells is a top 100 guy for some people when it's completely unclear what position that would be at. He has only caught (and DHd) in his three years in the minors so far, but no one seems to think he can stick there in MLB. Much like with Miguel Andujar, NY refuses to accept this reality and play him at least some at a position where he could maybe succeed (1B?).
He has still not actually played anywhere besides C or DH, but finally today:

"Aaron Boone said the Yankees would like to get Austin Wells some looks at first base. They also feel like he’s made some strides at catcher."

Guys, I am just a bozo sitting at home, and this is your multi-billion dollar business, please be more on top of things than I am. Thank you for your attention to this situation.

Also, 'would like to get him some looks at first base'? Does he need certification or something? Why is this happening so slowly? NY wants so badly to develop their own catchers that they literally have five on the roster in AA now, most of those 5 have of course played the IF some, but Wells still does not have a single game there. He is presumably coming up as one of the two Sept 1 additions, so get him some games at a second position now or let him catch a lot down the stretch. NY did this last year with Cabrera too, he barely played the OF at all before they promoted him and put him out there every day. He was somehow great but still not the prudent way to do things.

NY has catching decisions to make after the season, Wells is a definite protect for his bat, Agustin Ramirez pretty close now too, but also 24 year old Carlos Narvaez (Omar's cousin) has been in Scranton most of the year, has a .807 OPS and a good defensive rep. Add that to Trevino, Higgy and Rortvedt and you have some serious 40 man protection decisions to be made, and the first of those is 'can Austin Wells catch in MLB or is he a 1B and/or DH'?

If Wells cannot catch, start grooming him as Rizzo's replacement at 1B. Move on from one of Trevino/Higgy, Rortvedt moves to #1 or #2 and gets a real chance, Narvaez and Ramirez in the minors. If Wells can catch, then maybe don't protect Narvaez and keep your fingers crossed no one grabs him. NY should have a lot of 40 man flexibility this winter to protect guys, a rare positive from having so many wastes of space on the roster now.
 

jon abbey

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In these dark times, here's a quick run at a best case scenario 2025 team opening day, they have all of these guys already except Murakami would be a FA signing. Everyone else there besides Judge would all still be pre-arb or close.

Volpe 2B
Dominguez CF
Judge DH
Spencer Jones RF
Munetaka Murakami or Wells 1B
Trey Sweeney 3B
Pereira LF
Agustin Ramirez or Wells C
Peraza SS

With Roderick Arias pushing up fast for SS, maybe mid-2025.

That is three CFers in the OF, three SSs in the infield, and more lefty power (Jones, Murakami/Wells, Dominguez is a switch-hitter) than they have had in years.
 

terrynever

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In these dark times, here's a quick run at a best case scenario 2025 team opening day, they have all of these guys already except Murakami would be a FA signing. Everyone else there besides Judge would all still be pre-arb or close.

Volpe 2B
Dominguez CF
Judge DH
Spencer Jones RF
Munetaka Murakami or Wells 1B
Trey Sweeney 3B
Pereira LF
Agustin Ramirez or Wells C
Peraza SS

With Roderick Arias pushing up fast for SS, maybe mid-2025.

That is three CFers in the OF, three SSs in the infield, and more lefty power (Jones, Murakami/Wells, Dominguez is a switch-hitter) than they have had in years.
No Stanton, which is my dream, too. His approach to hitting is hazardous to young teammates.
 

jon abbey

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Chase Hampton is shut down with an innings limit, he got to 106.2 this year after being a 2022 draft pick and not getting past 60 in college. He also was added to the mlb.com top 100 today after someone else graduated.
 

jon abbey

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Katie Sharp

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If Oswald Peraza (23 yrs old), Everson Pereira (22), Anthony Volpe (22) and Jasson Dominguez (20) all start together in a game this weekend, it will be 1st time the Yankees have 4 position players age 23 or younger in same starting lineup since Sept. 18, 1969"
 

jon abbey

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I am excited for Dominguez. Is there a major league comp for his best case scenario?
Hmm, I rarely do or think about these, but let's try to figure it out.

He is a switch-hitting CF hitting MLB at age 20 (he turns 21 in February), he has great speed (40th SB of the year today, last night he walked, stole second and scored on an infield hit between 1B and 2B, it was very impressive), very good power that he has yet to fully show in games, and a great eye (led the AA league in BBs despite being the youngest player in the league).

Any thoughts?
 

jon abbey

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Also Dominguez looked like he already belonged this past spring training, never know how seriously to take that but he was very impressive.
 

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Hmm, I rarely do or think about these, but let's try to figure it out.

He is a switch-hitting CF hitting MLB at age 20 (he turns 21 in February), he has great speed (40th SB of the year today, last night he walked, stole second and scored on an infield hit between 1B and 2B, it was very impressive), very good power that he has yet to fully show in games, and a great eye (led the AA league in BBs despite being the youngest player in the league).

Any thoughts?
Bernie Williams.
 

jon abbey

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I don't think he's as fast as Raines or the defensive player that Beltran was, but those are getting closer, I think, especially with Beltran being a switch-hitter.
 

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Verlander pitching for Houston on Friday night. Gotta lead off Dominguez and get Wells in the lineup, too.