that area of Sox "fandom" always has been a cesspool (talking about the facebook/social media types) . They will find any angle "available" to complain about ownership or the team... Same if we get Yamamoto and his first season is "terrible". Also, I bet SD wishes they had a mulligan on giving Bogaerts that disaster of a contract last offseason, given that it directly led to them having to trade Soto because of their financial issues
I get what you're saying though I don't know if Bogaerts' deal is directly involved with the trade of Soto. I imagine the collapse of their television partner, the death of their free-spending owner, the less than stellar results of the 2023 season, and Soto's insistence on going to free agency played into it much more so than the outlay they made to Bogaerts.
Many say he’s better than Tanaka who at 25 put up a 13-5 record with a 2.77 ERA and just over a 3 FIP. So somewhere in the range of an ace-level pitcher.
Eduardo started 34 games in 2019, was almost killed by Covid in 2020, pitched 31 games in 2021, dealt with non-injury family issues in 2022 but still started 17 games, and missed about 6 weeks in 2023 and started 26 games. Where is this idea that he's injury prone and guaranteed to miss time every season coming from?
I'd add Jesus Luzardo to that list. 26 with 3 more years of control and I read a tweet yesterday, I think from Heyman, that the Marlins are open to listening to offers on their young pitching. Luzardo would be exactly what we're looking for.
(I don't count the Covid year, for anything).
He started out 2016 in Pawtucket, too, so there's another 7 starts you missed. But if you have to go back 8 years to make your point, you're probably not on very solid ground. In the last 4 full seasons, he's missed 6 starts due to injury.
I added them in. 2 of the starts in Pawtucket were from an IL stint.
His absence in 2022 did begin with an IL stint. He left his rehab assignment to attend to his family issues. I'm generally loathe to use the "injury-prone" label and will argue past injuries aren't predictive of future ones. However, Rodriguez has only completed one season in his big league career without a trip to the IL of some sort. He's not been a paragon of reliability.
Bieber is a free agent after 2024. I would say he's not available for trade right now because he only had two starts in September and it wasn't enough to reestablish his value after an elbow injury. It also would have been a really bad move to DFA Cal Quantrill if they trade Bieber now, leaving them with only four major league starters. However, MLB obviously doesn't give a @#%* about Bally Sports swindling teams and leaving their budgets in flux for 2024, so who the hell knows what they're going to do now.
Big difference between 25 and 29 when talking about a long term contract for a SP. The Yankees will have Cole signed until he's 39.
Is it really a long term contract if Yamamoto has opt outs after year 3,4,5?
Sure, but the streets are littered with once-hyped Yankee pitching prospects who fizzled out after they were dealt for productive major leaguers.
1000% yes. He only opts out of he is good. If he sucks, you pay him for 100% of that contract. You give away all upside and keep the downside with opt outs.
I don’t disagree at all. Minor pitching has such a freaking variance that it’s why I assumed Bloom never really focused on it draft-wise. It may be worth paying the premium to have other do it for you. I’m not sure.
This is true, but it won't be seen that way among certain elements of the fanbase
I think it's at least possible that the Padres would've preferred Houck and Whitlock to King and Thorpe, given their GFIN status. Now, people might balk at giving up two cost-controlled (***swoons***) young pitchers for one year of Soto given that he apparently "doesn't make the Red Sox World Series contenders," but Soto presumably wouldn't be the only addition -- the Red Sox are also trying to add two top of the rotation pitchers. If they dealt Houck and Whitlock for Soto, then managed to sign Yamamoto and trade for someone like Jesus Luzardo or Braxton Garrett, then, voila, they would be World Series contenders.
This is absolutely right and its hard for me to envision a world where Steve Cohen allows him to leave that meeting without signing with the Mets
Hi Bowler, ltns. Hope all is well! I agree with this generally, but I'd add that with a pitcher at age 25, if you're worried about injury or decline later in the contract, adding an opt out after 4 years or so isn't necessarily giving away all upside and keeping the downside.
I don't think there's any chance the Padres would've preferred Houck/Whitlock to King/Thorpe, and you're not even mentioning the other 3 guys they got in the trade. A comparable trade for Soto looks more like Houck/Whitlock/Wong/Crawford/Winkelman Gonzalez and I don't think that has the upside of the King/Thorpe headliners from NY and creates even more issues with a Sox pitching staff that needs arms.
One of the flaws with BTV is that it's pretty goofy at tracking the valuations of young players who've lost a year to or are returning from injury.
Remember he also rejected a trade at the deadline and has been open about mental health issues. This is a guy where getting the last dollar is far less important than being in his comfort zone.
Who's Okajima?
Except often times if you let the player walk you still end up with a good deal. Let's say it's a 7 year deal with an opt out after 4. You get 3 or 4 good years, miss out on 1 or 2 good years but aren't paying for a dead contract. The mistake so often has been the team not walking away when the player walks away. A.Rod's $252 mil deal was great. The $275 mil deal was not.
Well that could be an awfully long meeting and probably morph into something of a hostage situation. I can't say what Japanese players think about the whole "most money" angle but I am pretty sure they don't tend to ascribe to the whole "it's about respect/being wanted" garbage. Of BOM's list of factors above, money is literally the Mets' only advantage, along with New York which they share with a far more attractive team.
I know you’re just making a point but I feel like implying that the MFY are “attractive” in any sense should be a bannable offense. Like, standards, man…
Whitlock has 4/$17.5M guaranteed left on his deal, if he can’t start than his value takes a big hit- assuming that’s behind this.
The bolded is completely untrue. When you have a super engaged owner who is proving he is willing to do whatever it takes to place talent around you, it means a whole hell of a lot. He flew to Japan to meet with him in person.
Wasn't he the guy the Sox signed so Dice-K would have someone to talk to?
I could plead that I was just projecting his opinion, but would humbly accept such a ban nonetheless.
Hm, your point about Cohen flying there is a good one, that sort of gesture goes over well in Japanese culture I would expect. After that though, Yamamoto is well aware that they spent themselves into a pit last year, that they haven't won a title in his lifetime, that the Yankees are well ahead of them in talent, prestige, local fan engagement and pretty much anything else he might be interested in. And that's before we even bring up the other teams the Mets are competing with -- LA, Atlanta and so on, all of whom are also probably showing extreme levels of commitment in their own way. At least in the Sox' case we can hope for some miracle where he just loves Boston or Yoshida's company or whatever. At least there's only one team here and one old friend from his Orix days. [And to be clear, this would be nothing short of a miracle.] I just don't see what's unique about the Mets.
That's not much money, though, even if he's just a reliever. In the free agent market, that gets you roughly two years of a good 7th inning guy in his thirties (like Joe Kelly, Matt Strahm, or Emilio Pagan).
Yeah, I don't think BTV is the be-all end-all to the discussion, was just adding those numbers to provide some context. I think age is another factor. Houck/Whit are both 27 and haven't proven they can be legit MLB starters. And while King is 28, he's coming off an impressive run in the rotation and Thorpe is 23. King has some helium and Thorpe has been really good in the minors, so I don't think Houck/Whit would be as valuable as the NYY headliners to a San Diego team in need of SP's. Houck and Whit could be solid MLB starters while SD is probably thinking King/Thorpe could be more than that and they get Thorpe for more years than either BOS pitcher. And they got 2 other interesting SP guys ties to give to their pitching coach Ruben Niebla, who has worked wonders fixing guys.
Oh no, didn't mean to imply you were asserting true faith in BTV. It's a useful tool. The fluctuation is interesting though.
Yes, King is much better than Houck/Whitlock, but he has just as many injury concerns. I'd still take the bet that King ends up a good starting pitcher over anyone else in the group but let's not pretend he's proven to be a "legit MLB starter" either apart from a half dozen starts in September. And you only get 2 seasons of King vs 4 for Houck and 5 for Whitlock.
The #2 guy in the entire league (13 catch framing runs in only 2,025 pitches) is available if you're into that sort of thing. It's too bad he had a 24 wRC+ last year & hasn't been above 48 since 2018. Per Fangraphs, Austin Hedges defense was so valuable that he was worth 0.8 fWAR in 212 PAs despite the inability to hit a baseball.
Yeah, I definitely agree King is far from a "legit MLB starter", don't think I said he was. There's definitely risk with him. My thinking is the Padres view him as a better SP option than Houck and/or Whitlock. If they view either or both of the Red Sox arms as relief pitchers, it makes sense that they'd go with the Yankees offer. We've seen for a couple seasons now how Houck and Whitlock have struggled to be dependable MLB starters. I started posting in here because the OP said it was possible the Padres would prefer Houck/Whitlock over King/Thorpe and I just don't see it, especially when you consider what else they got out of the deal (including getting rid of Grisham). I mean, I guess it's possible but I don't think it's very likely. And even if they did prefer Houck/Whitlock, the Sox probably weren't going to take Grisham or include Wong and two more near-MLB starters for 1 year of Soto. With the Padres needing starting pitching and a need to reduce payroll, the Sox weren't really a good trade partner for Soto unless they did something stupid.
I agree with your general premise that the Yankees offer is much better than the Red Sox hypothetical one, but Grisham didn't have a negative value. If they thought that, they wouldn't have tendered him. He is expected to earn $5m this upcoming year & in his 4 years since joining the Padres he has been between 1.7 & 2.3 fWAR each season & according to Fangraphs has been worth between $13.3m & $18.3m each season. He's a very good defensive player & should have positive value on a $5m contract.
Because they thought he couldn't handle GM duties among his peers (see past two trade deadlines).
I'm not sure why or how...but Andrew Bailey may be able to help with the whole pitch framing thing...
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catcher_framing?year=2023&team=&min=q&type=catcher&sort=4,1
