There is a thread about this exact topic. The current CBA expires after the 2026 season. Having reset the penalties last year, the Sox are in a good position to exceed the first threshhold every year through 2026, with minimal penalties. As long as they don't go over $40 million above the first threshold (this year, that would be staying under $277 million), there won't be any draft penalties.* So I very much agree that the Sox should stay below that $277 million dollar limit but I see no reason to be concerned about exceeding the initial $237 line.
As an example, last year Atlanta had a CBT payroll of about $249 million, the CBT threshold was $233 million, and they were assessed a tax of $3.2 million. That's it. Atlanta has to pay a little over $3 million as an extra tax. If they have a CBT payroll of $249 in 2024, they would be required to pay $3.6 million this year, since the penalty goes up, but so does the penalty threshold. If they had the same CBT payroll in 2025, they would pay $4 million the penalty would actually go down in 2026, to $2.5 million.
*Note that any team that is over the luxury tax threshold and in that next offseason signs a Major League free agent that has rejected a qualifying offer will lose $1 million from their international signing pool in the following signing period. A team that is not over the luxury tax would only forfeit $500,000 of its signing pool in the subsequent period.