Offseason rumors

[CR67dream]

I’m absolutely fine with extending Pivetta if its at the right cost.

I'm not so much worried about cost if they've identified him as worth the investment.It's only money, and not mine.

Of course I don't think they'd offer anything unreasonably ridiculous, but he's a valuable piece, and may be valued higher than we think.

 

[Trapaholic]

Here is where I am at so far:

In my opinion, defense and starting pitching were the 2 most glaring issues in 2023. I think an above-average defense and 200-300 more MLB caliber starting pitcher innings would have had this team in the WC race, if not in the playoffs.

The offense was fine aside from the insane streakiness. Way too many ABs from minor league players (Reyes, Valdez, Dalbec, plus a few others)

- Justin Turner was probably the most productive offensive player outside of Devers. Doesnt look like he will be back.
- Traded Sale, acquired Giolito. Should at least get more actual innings out of Giolito.
- Acquired a steady defensive OF in O'Neil. Tough to pencil him in for 500+ at bats given injury history.
- Acquired Grissom to play 2B. Tough to be worse on defense than the 2023 group, although that remains to be seen.
- Should get more SS innings out of Story. Shortstop was a huge liability on both offense and defense. Not sold on Story's bat, but he can play defense.

In summation: the team should be better defensively, but it would tough to be worse. Offense looks more or less the same but replacing Turner may be a group effort. Still desperately need more decent SP innings. Pitchers and catchers report February 13th, so there is still time even at this late juncture.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I'm not so much worried about cost if they've identified him as worth the investment.It's only money, and not mine.

Of course I don't think they'd offer anything unreasonably ridiculous, but he's a valuable piece, and may be valued higher than we think.

Pivetta's resurgence last year is somewhat akin to Wacha figuring it out with Tampa in 2021. If he were a FA, he'd be exactly the kind of pitcher you'd want them to target.

 

[chrisfont9]

That sounds like a great plan, but the team has shown zero interest in Soto twice now. Different circumstances (trade vs. free agent) and different GM now, but he's already making $30 million in 2024 - is this team really going to outbid the Yankees for his services next year?

That was never happening and now it's only clearer. Fine with me, there are plenty of other ways to score runs than paying $400m to a DH.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Pivetta's resurgence last year is somewhat akin to Wacha figuring it out with Tampa in 2021. If he were a FA, he'd be exactly the kind of pitcher you'd want them to target.

Agree with this take almost entirely (as someone that advocated bringing Wacha back last year, and I would have liked to have brought him back this year too, though I really don't want / didn't want more one year deals on the pitching staff, but certainly would have been happy to have given 3/$50m to Wacha).

I hope they give something like 3/$50m to Pivetta as an extension. Would he take that? He's made about $15m in the course of his career, which is of course plenty of money (at least to normal people). However if you present him with the comp of Lugo (3/$45m) and tell him you believe in him more (and are setting up not only him and his immediate family for life, but his kids and grandkids for their lives too, I think he'd consider it).

There should only be two outcomes with Pivetta over the next 6 weeks. A) Extend him. B) Trade him for someone that will be here in 2026+.

*Now that he's under contract, if he didn't take an extension, and the Sox were to eat the money, I think they'd get something very nice for him. Unfortunately the guy I wanted from the Cubbies (they need pitching) just got traded to the Dodgers in Jackson Ferris. Why wouldn't the Dodgers get more pitching for their pipeline...

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Agree with this take almost entirely (as someone that advocated bringing Wacha back this year, and I would have liked to have brought him back this year too, though I really don't want / didn't want more one year deals on the pitching staff, but certainly would have been happy to have given 3/$50m to Wacha).

I hope they give something like 3/$50m to Pivetta as an extension. Would he take that? He's made about $15m in the course of his career, which is of course plenty of money (at least to normal people). However if you present him with the comp of Lugo (3/$45m) and tell him you believe in him more (and are setting up not only him and his immediate family for life, but his kids and grandkids for their lives too, I think he'd consider it).

There should only be two outcomes with Pivetta over the next 6 weeks. A) Extend him. B) Trade him for someone that will be here in 2026+.

I completely agree with the last sentence and I pretty much feel the exact same way with Jansen and Martin.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I completely agree with the last sentence and I pretty much feel the exact same way with Jansen and Martin.

Basically a +100 response here.

Though, truth be told, if they're not going to address the pitching long term over the next 6 weeks (and all signs point to "no") then I really don't see the point in extending Jansen or Martin. Or, in other words, I think they should both be gone. But that'll be another thread in another week or so as I refuse to give up the hope that they're actually going to realize that it's likely the team will have a season in 2025 and 2026 and address their pitching accordingly.

 

[jbupstate]

I think the risk/reward on both moves is high but both have legitimate question marks. O'Neil with health and Grissom in terms of his bat will translate at the MLB level and if his defense plays at 2B. I have no issues with the Fitts pickup and hope they can work with him to unlock even more.

I agree with all of this. But don’t Imanaga, Snell, the SFG centerfielder , Bellinger and even Yamamoto have legitimate questions with regards to investment risk?

Of course the Sox have cash to spend and they should reach and overpay occasionally. Exactly what they did with Devers and Yoshida… two players on the hot seat.

The Orioles and Rays haven’t made huge financial commitments and seem to be focused on developing prospect and finding incremental value in transactions. Doing alright I suppose.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

The Orioles ownership is going to be tested this and next year. Their only job is to continue to carefully build around the ridiculous core they have. With the Rays, I'm sure I'm not alone when I say I don't even give a shit who is on their roster anymore, they are always going to to compete in this division and not for last.

 

[NickEsasky]

I agree with all of this. But don’t Imanaga, Snell, the SFG centerfielder , Bellinger and even Yamamoto have legitimate questions with regards to investment risk?

Of course the Sox have cash to spend and they should reach and overpay occasionally. Exactly what they did with Devers and Yoshida… two players on the hot seat.

The Orioles and Rays haven’t made huge financial commitments and seem to be focused on developing prospect and finding incremental value in transactions. Doing alright I suppose.

They ALL have risk. I have been beating the drum over and over here that all players/deals come with inherent risk and there aren't any unicorns. But that alone shouldn't be a reason to not make a trade or not sign a player to a contract.

And honestly I wasn't implying that the players acquired in trades have any inherent risk outside of normal production/injury/defense ones. Meaning I meant the reward had a chance to be high while the risk was minimal. I won't miss Verdugo's league average-ish-ness or praying the rosary for Sale's health.

 

[nighthob]

Bryan Bellow will be 25 years old this season. He absolutely has the potential to be a number two starter.

I keep saying this to people (this is not so much aimed at you as the person you're responding to), but per WARP (I prefer WARP for pitcher evaluations as it splits the difference between fWAR's focus on what should have happened and bWAR's focus on actual results) he's already one of the 30 best starters in MLB. I'm not sure how much more he needs to do to be a front half of the rotation starter.

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

There is a thread about this exact topic. The current CBA expires after the 2026 season. Having reset the penalties last year, the Sox are in a good position to exceed the first threshhold every year through 2026, with minimal penalties. As long as they don't go over $40 million above the first threshold (this year, that would be staying under $277 million), there won't be any draft penalties.* So I very much agree that the Sox should stay below that $277 million dollar limit but I see no reason to be concerned about exceeding the initial $237 line.

As an example, last year Atlanta had a CBT payroll of about $249 million, the CBT threshold was $233 million, and they were assessed a tax of $3.2 million. That's it. Atlanta has to pay a little over $3 million as an extra tax. If they have a CBT payroll of $249 in 2024, they would be required to pay $3.6 million this year, since the penalty goes up, but so does the penalty threshold. If they had the same CBT payroll in 2025, they would pay $4 million the penalty would actually go down in 2026, to $2.5 million.

*Note that any team that is over the luxury tax threshold and in that next offseason signs a Major League free agent that has rejected a qualifying offer will lose $1 million from their international signing pool in the following signing period. A team that is not over the luxury tax would only forfeit $500,000 of its signing pool in the subsequent period.

Small quibble - they would also get worse compensation picks for any QOs they offer.

 

[jbupstate]

They ALL have risk. I have been beating the drum over and over here that all players/deals come with inherent risk and there aren't any unicorns. But that alone shouldn't be a reason to not make a trade or not sign a player to a contract.

And honestly I wasn't implying that the players acquired in trades have any inherent risk outside of normal production/injury/defense ones. Meaning I meant the reward had a chance to be high while the risk was minimal. I won't miss Verdugo's league average-ish-ness or praying the rosary for Sale's health.

I totally agree. But I think it’s important to not flex / overpay for a free agent signing that isn’t going to move the needle… 5 place to 4th isn’t worth it. I would hope a big move doesn’t move the Sox from lower middle to middle.

What's the point? End of day it’s a waste of money for FSG… they probably make the same. I do think they would loosen up if the move catapulted the team up the standings.

I would love Henry to come out and say it’s a business to him and not a hobby. It would explain a few things… and this place would explode.

 

[GPO Man]

I would be disappointed if we didn’t land Montgomery or Snell, and still be able to stay below the CBT. The market seems pretty affordable for these guys right now. I hope that is where Craig is focusing, and not trading one of the big three. Soler is less of a priority for me.

 

[NickEsasky]

I totally agree. But I think it’s important to not flex / overpay for a free agent signing that isn’t going to move the needle… 5 place to 4th isn’t worth it. I would hope a big move doesn’t move the Sox from lower middle to middle.

What's the point? End of day it’s a waste of money for FSG… they probably make the same. I do think they would loosen up if the move catapulted the team up the standings.

I would love Henry to come out and say it’s a business to him and not a hobby. It would explain a few things… and this place would explode.

So we just throw in the towel for 2024 then? Ok at least I keep money in my pocket on tickets and concessions this year. And here's the thing about signing guys to more than one-year contracts. while they may only move you from 5th to 4th in the first year, they can help your team for more than one year!

 

[johnlos]

If all things were equal, you're probably right but I think that you're taking a lot of the context out of your argument. The Yankees have Cole heading up their rotation, a proven number one starter who was lights out last year and just signed Stroman. The Red Sox have Bryan Bello and a bunch of other dudes. For the Yankees, Snell is a nice-to-have. For the Sox, Snell (or Montgomery or Yamamoto) is a need. Are any of them Cole? Of course not, but they're better than what they have currently. The Sox don't seem to want to trade prospects for a top of the rotation starter. They haven't had a top of the rotation starter come through their system in over a decade. The only way that they can get a starter for next season is to throw money at them.

So the reaction, I believe, would be prudent. We need a starter. We have a shit ton of cash and financial flexibility. Why aren't we getting one? That is why you would get the frustration, annoyance, anger reaction here. Also, who gives a shit about the Yankees? The White Sox haven't bolstered their rotation either and I'm not worried about them.

It's really simple.

Agreed. Sure some people will complain no matter what but if they signed Stroman to a deal like this I think most people in here will be happy since it elevates our ceiling. l agree we shouldn't commit to a Snell or a JMont on a 5 year deal but Stroman (or Imanaga) seemed like a significantly better fit in terms of what the Sox reportedly want to do with ≤2 year deals.

At this point I don't even know what to hope for. Paxton and Duvall I guess :/. I dunno who else has much upside. At least with Stroman you look at his first half last year and dream on a #2 starter.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I keep saying this to people (this is not so much aimed at you as the person you're responding to), but per WARP (I prefer WARP for pitcher evaluations as it splits the difference between fWAR's focus on what should have happened and bWAR's focus on actual results) he's already one of the 30 best starters in MLB. I'm not sure how much more he needs to do to be a front half of the rotation starter.

He also has a very obvious weakness, which his 4 seam is a “big ball” where hitters see the shit out of it.

His four seam usage under Bailey is going to plummet. Bush kept trying to get him to play his four seam up in the zone and it just didn’t work. No 4 seams, more change up, thrive. I’m expect a huge year from him under Bailey.

 

[InsideTheParker]

So we just throw in the towel for 2024 then? Ok at least I keep money in my pocket on tickets and concessions this year. And here's the thing about signing guys to more than one-year contracts. while they may only move you from 5th to 4th in the first year, they can help your team for more than one year!

Yes, and from the fan's perspective, making the games watchable is a high priority. Do they have a chance to win if I tune in?

 

[MikeM]

That sounds like a great plan, but the team has shown zero interest in Soto twice now. Different circumstances (trade vs. free agent) and different GM now, but he's already making $30 million in 2024 - is this team really going to outbid the Yankees for his services next year?

Saving money for Soto isn't a plan. It's a Lloyd Christmas meme rationalization.

Speier's report today that we at least came in competitive on Imanaga has walking me away some from the "they need to just sell team" ledge. But that still leaves us with a more absolute need to be seriously in on either Snell or Montgomery now after seeing the next tier down guys all pass them by.

This not being a GFIN year in terms of trying to win the world series isn't the only potential big picture win on the table. There is still value to be had there in potentially putting an improved product on the field next year while rebuilding your brand appeal back up some between now and next winter.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

I would be disappointed if we didn’t land Montgomery or Snell, and still be able to stay below the CBT. The market seems pretty affordable for these guys right now. I hope that is where Craig is focusing, and not trading one of the big three. Soler is less of a priority for me.

I believe we are right around 34mil under right now... is that correct? Seems like there is something there to make out a deal .... WIth Jansen and Martin and a few other pieces there may be room to get to Soler/Duvall/Turner. WIth the right moves I think we can get a SP and a bat. Might take some time to have something come together. Is the tax number used on payroll taken at the beginning of the season or where they end up at the end of the season?

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Small quibble - they would also get worse compensation picks for any QOs they offer.

Thank you- this is definitely true as the comp pick would get bumped from before the 3rd round to after the 4th round.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I keep saying this to people (this is not so much aimed at you as the person you're responding to), but per WARP (I prefer WARP for pitcher evaluations as it splits the difference between fWAR's focus on what should have happened and bWAR's focus on actual results) he's already one of the 30 best starters in MLB. I'm not sure how much more he needs to do to be a front half of the rotation starter.

Clone himself (twice) so that we could have a front 1/2 of the rotation.

A rotation Bello, Bello, Bello, Crawford and Pivetta and I'd feel entirely differently about the prospects of the 2024-2027 Red Sox.

 

[TomRicardo]

I would be disappointed if we didn’t land Montgomery or Snell, and still be able to stay below the CBT. The market seems pretty affordable for these guys right now. I hope that is where Craig is focusing, and not trading one of the big three. Soler is less of a priority for me.

Unless they were looking to beat Ohtani's contract with either of them they won't pay tax. The CBT does not have anything to do with signing either of them.

Note - this is not an endorsement to sign them, but signing them is not a CBT consideration.

 

[jbupstate]

So we just throw in the towel for 2024 then? Ok at least I keep money in my pocket on tickets and concessions this year. And here's the thing about signing guys to more than one-year contracts. while they may only move you from 5th to 4th in the first year, they can help your team for more than one year!

I guess that’s where I’m apart from some. I haven’t given up on 2024. I like the moves so far, want more and don’t have to hear people rip Bloom or Sale.

I saw an obviously flawed team last year in the playoff hunt deep into August (8 games over .500 with 32 games left). Not much luck, injuries and a horrible defensive middle infield. Team also could beat the shit teams…

A little injury luck… for us and against others. B&B unlock some improvements in the SP… I just cannot see this team bottoming out under 70 wins and see mid 80s. Too many good players. Eggs in Mayer, Teel, Anthony basket.

Not sure how Stroman or Imanaga and the like remove worries. I feel I have something to root for at least.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I haven't given up on 2024, but I also think we need to build for 2025 and later years. We need starting pitching. I'm not confident that Houck, Whitlock or Winc can do the job, but I have greater confidence in Bello and Crawford (and Pivetta and Giolitoin '24).

If they can't trade for a SP1 or 2 without giving up one or more of Mayer/Anthony/Teel, then I would try to sign Montgomery. A shorter deal would be preferable (4/112, 5/130) but I'd probably go to 6/150-ish. I'd be willing to bet that while he might not be a Cy Young contender year-to-year, he'll be solid and reliable and not an albatross.

 

[nighthob]

His four seam usage under Bailey is going to plummet. Bush kept trying to get him to play his four seam up in the zone and it just didn’t work. No 4 seams, more change up, thrive. I’m expect a huge year from him under Bailey.

As a Giants fan I hated to see Bailey leave, as a Sox fan I was thrilled to see him come here as Boston has some guys with untapped potential. Bello primarily, of course. But Crawford and Houk are also candidates for real improvement with an actual good pitching coach (as a side note, a moment of silence for Jack Leiter’s career as Bush is now the Rangers’ diector of pitching development).

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Thoughs on Cabrera as a trade target?

https://x.com/tylermilliken_/status/1745943429647917191?s=20

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1746015498351841433?s=46

 

[6-5 Sadler]

Such an odd ending and phrasing to that tweet. He could’ve said something like, “Red Sox not among the top bidders” or “Red Sox looking in other directions.” That he chose to needle/embarrass the Sox makes me think he’s getting info from an agent trying to shame the Sox into upping their offer. Speculating but I’m guessing the Sox have a one year offer out there at a higher AAV and they’re trying to get to 2 years.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Such an odd ending and phrasing to that tweet. He could’ve said something like, “Red Sox not among the top bidders” or “Red Sox looking in other directions.” That he chose to needle/embarrass the Sox makes me think he’s getting info from an agent trying to shame the Sox into upping their offer. Speculating but I’m guessing the Sox have a one year offer out there at a higher AAV and they’re trying to get to 2 years.

Every single reporter/media figure is dunking on on the Red Sox with every single free agent signing.

It’s odd, but also, it’s just the current narrative. The Red Sox are interested in everyone and sign no one.

But there are about 20 teams who have signed literally no one so far this off season.

It’s been odd. To say the least.

 

[6-5 Sadler]

Right that’s the narrative but who have they really been outbid on? YY was heading to LA and who knows if the Sox even made an official offer. It’s tough to determine if our offer was better for Imanaga but reports are we had more dollars in the first 2 years although maybe the Cubs had more total dollars. Who else…Teoscar? Maybe Seth Lugo? It’s not like any of the these guys (outside of YY obviously) are hot commodities so I think it’s more the Sox aren’t willing to overextend themselves for somewhat fungible players.

 

[grepal]

Every single reporter/media figure is dunking on on the Red Sox with every single free agent signing.

It’s odd, but also, it’s just the current narrative. The Red Sox are interested in everyone and sign no one.

But there are about 20 teams who have signed literally no one so far this off season.

It’s been odd. To say the least.

The problem is in part the full throttle comment made me and likely others have very high expectations,which have not been close to being met, follow that with canceling the town hall and instead of excitement much of the fan base is either disgruntled or disappointed. I am assuming the full throttle comment was put out to enhance season ticket sales or an attempt to get fans to keep their packages. It was not a factual statement. Full throttle assumes the club would do what it took to be a legit contender in 2024.

 

[nighthob]

Thoughs on Cabrera as a trade target?

If the cost of Cabrera is guys in the Yorke/Gonzalez/Perales tier of the system, sign me up.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Thoughs on Cabrera as a trade target?

https://x.com/tylermilliken_/status/1745943429647917191?s=20

I freaking LOVE Edward Cabrera. His stuff is nasty. Look at his Statcast. Sub-3 ERAs 2019-2023 every year in Minors. Would love to see if Bailey could help his control. It comes and goes but when it’s on, he’s filthy.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/edward-cabrera-665795?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

 

[CR67dream]

The problem is in part the full throttle comment made me and likely others have very high expectations,which have not been close to being met, follow that with canceling the town hall and instead of excitement much of the fan base is either disgruntled or disappointed. I am assuming the full throttle comment was put out to enhance season ticket sales or an attempt to get fans to keep their packages. It was not a factual statement. Full throttle assumes the club would do what it took to be a legit contender in 2024.

I'm not sure if it was intentionally said for promotional purposes or if he just can't help himself from saying stupid shit he doesn't need to say, but he really needs to just zip his trap. The whole PR operation needs a complete overhaul.

 

[Auger34]

I believe Edward Cabrera is who was rumored to be a trade option for Justin Turner last year?

 

[CR67dream]

I believe Edward Cabrera is who was rumored to be a trade option for Justin Turner last year?

Indeed. Sorry it's reddit. Trying to find the Speir tweet. Link added, I think it was actually in this article but it's paywalled.

How did that trade not get done if this was true? Asinine.

https://www.reddit.com/r/redsox/comments/16n80zj/alex_spier_just_said_the_sox_turned_down_trading/

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/09/15/sports/two-ways-view-red-sox-baseball-ops-with-chaim-bloom-charge-positive-side-negative/

 

[jon abbey]

Yep, here is the Speier piece from September:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/09/15/sports/two-ways-view-red-sox-baseball-ops-with-chaim-bloom-charge-positive-side-negative/

 

[jon abbey]

“The Sox also had deals on the table for James Paxton — multiple industry officials said they could have acquired major league-ready pitching, perhaps with the ceiling of a back-end starter, despite the injury risks involving the lefthander — and Kenley Jansen.”

 

[jon abbey]

“Perhaps most notably, according to major league sources, the Sox were deep in talks with the Marlins on the day of the deadline about a deal that would have sent Justin Turner to Miami for Edward Cabrera — a 25-year-old righthanded starter with a potentially dominant fastball — and more.”

“According to a major league source, at the 2022 trade deadline, the Rangers were willing to take all but $14 million of Chris Sale’s remaining contract while also sending two prospects to Boston, but the talks died. “

 

[Harry Hooper]

The problem is in part the full throttle comment made me and likely others have very high expectations,which have not been close to being met, follow that with canceling the town hall and instead of excitement much of the fan base is either disgruntled or disappointed. I am assuming the full throttle comment was put out to enhance season ticket sales or an attempt to get fans to keep their packages. It was not a factual statement. Full throttle assumes the club would do what it took to be a legit contender in 2024.

It was a lot like this for Tom with his comment I believe:

View: https://youtu.be/BNDmaJwDmeo?t=138

 

[chrisfont9]

Such an odd ending and phrasing to that tweet. He could’ve said something like, “Red Sox not among the top bidders” or “Red Sox looking in other directions.” That he chose to needle/embarrass the Sox makes me think he’s getting info from an agent trying to shame the Sox into upping their offer. Speculating but I’m guessing the Sox have a one year offer out there at a higher AAV and they’re trying to get to 2 years.

Totally. They clearly have a limit to what they will pay for a DH. As they should.

 

[Margo McCready]

Bite the bullet and sign Montgomery. Keep Martin for the 8th. Trade Jansen to anyone willing to take his salary. Houck is the closer. Sign Soler with Jansen’s money so he and Yoshida can complete The Bushwackers DH/LF tag team. Dump Refsnyder. Stay under the Luxury Tax and avoid QO guys to not screw over 2025+. Let the chips fall where they may. Fun ensues. Easy-peasy.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Right that’s the narrative but who have they really been outbid on? YY was heading to LA and who knows if the Sox even made an official offer. It’s tough to determine if our offer was better for Imanaga but reports are we had more dollars in the first 2 years although maybe the Cubs had more total dollars. Who else…Teoscar? Maybe Seth Lugo? It’s not like any of the these guys (outside of YY obviously) are hot commodities so I think it’s more the Sox aren’t willing to overextend themselves for somewhat fungible players.

The truly interesting thing to me as far as this narrative thing goes is that pretty much all of the moves the Red Sox have actually made this winter have come with nearly no preamble "rumors." Which makes me wonder how much stock we can really put into the narratives at all. Did the media miss the whispers about the Sox and Braves talking trade (for example), are they ignoring them because they don't necessarily fit with the "Sox need to make big bold moves/sign headliners but can't get the job done" narrative, or is it possible there just weren't whispers to hear/report on? And if it's the last one, is it possible there aren't really that many or any whispers about the players they're supposedly missing out on?

 

[Rovin Romine]

Totally. They clearly have a limit to what they will pay for a DH. As they should.

And for how long. With both Devers and Yoshida on the team, plus the current OF glut, a full-time DH has to be the right fit both this year and with an eye to the next.

 

[BringBackMo]

I keep saying this to people (this is not so much aimed at you as the person you're responding to), but per WARP (I prefer WARP for pitcher evaluations as it splits the difference between fWAR's focus on what should have happened and bWAR's focus on actual results) he's already one of the 30 best starters in MLB. I'm not sure how much more he needs to do to be a front half of the rotation starter.

I agree completely that Bello is already in that number-two caliber range, and I believe that, as good as he already is, he’s got a leap in him this year.

 

[OCD SS]

And for how long. With both Devers and Yoshida on the team, plus the current OF glut, a full-time DH has to be the right fit both this year and with an eye to the next.

We’re only talking about 1 vs 2 years. If they were going to sign him for one year, then any issue with the OF glut would be presumably solved by the start of the season. The only way he’s a long term DH issue is if you think Devers or Yoshida is going to be moved to DH permanently. I don't think either of those is a possibility:

Devers is still very young and I don't think he'll move to DH until his mobility seriously declines. There's also the matter of then needing someone else at 3B, for which there aren't any ready candidates (unless it's happen this year and Breslow is going to throw a lot of money at Chapman, but that seems laughable on its face).

Yoshida isn't really a good enough hitter that you want him as a long term DH; if you're not going to play him in the OF then he should be traded (addressing the OF glut). If your plan is that he'll improve by resting and playing as a DH, then that's also an issue for this year, and there was no reason to make Soler an offer anyway.

It's curious that the Sox have been linked to 2 RHH OFers, both with questionable at best defense. If they offered Hernandez 2 years, then they should be able to accomodate Soler for 2 as well, or they should've increased their offer to Hernandez.

 

[RS2004foreever]

This will all be forgotten once the games begin - but this is BAD look. Hernandez/Managa/Soler feels like Efflin all over again.It might be that the issue is that they hoped there was a market for Duran/Rafaela/Abreua and there isn't one.

My worry with Breslow is he had never been the guy in charge of negotiations. That is in art - I make my living doing it and experience definitely matters.

Floating names of potential FA's that are nowhere near the top of the class and then coming up short is a PR disaster. I don't really care about that in the win - because winning solves that - but as a fan I am sitting here wondering if Breslow knows what the F he is doing.

I love the Grissom trade. I like the Giolito signing. But this is nowhere near good enough. You have 3 top-end prospects who are in double AA at LEAST a year away. What is the plan, other than mediocrity?

I do not see it.

My guess is we sign Clevinger for 13 million (per MLB trade rumors) and we try to wait out Pham/Martinez so we stay under $225 million.

The rotation becomes
Giolito
Clevenger
Bello
Crawford
Pivetta/Houck

 

[CR67dream]

This will all be forgotten once the games begin - but this is BAD look. Hernandez/Managa/Soler feels like Efflin all over again.It might be that the issue is that they hoped there was a market for Duran/Rafaela/Abreua and there isn't one.

My worry with Breslow is he had never been the guy in charge of negotiations. That is in art - I make my living doing it and experience definitely matters.

Floating names of potential FA's that are nowhere near the top of the class and then coming up short is a PR disaster. I don't really care about that in the win - because winning solves that - but as a fan I am sitting here wondering if Breslow knows what the F he is doing.

I love the Grissom trade. I like the Giolito signing. But this is nowhere near good enough. You have 3 top-end prospects who are in double AA at LEAST a year away. What is the plan, other than mediocrity?

I do not see it.

That's a totally fair take, and definitely gives me pause to reflect a little bit. There's nothing you said there that's not realistically possible.

The man is a Yale grad, though, and by all accounts was heavily involved in the Cubs front office. Do we really know just how much negotiating he's actually done? But yeah, he's never been the guy, and that's indisputable.If I hadn't already seen the creativity he is capable of, I probably would be more worried about that. It's really most of the reason I'm going to wait until I see the rest before giving myself an ulcer.

One concern I do have is that there's really no one above him in the organization that I trust in a mentor role, so if he is as green as you think he may be, that could be a very big problem. I was always frustrated by Lucchino, but the man always wanted to win, and he sure as hell knew the baseball business.

And as has been said by just about everyone around here, their entire PR approach is an unmitigated disaster.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

Bite the bullet and sign Montgomery. Keep Martin for the 8th. Trade Jansen to anyone willing to take his salary. Houck is the closer. Sign Soler with Jansen’s money so he and Yoshida can complete The Bushwackers DH/LF tag team. Dump Refsnyder. Stay under the Luxury Tax and avoid QO guys to not screw over 2025+. Let the chips fall where they may. Fun ensues. Easy-peasy.

I'm with you on this.