Red Sox Deadline Discussion

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'm not saying I don't like Tulo, because I do.  And for a SS his bat is terrific.  But here are his career road numbers:
 
.275/.349/.470/.820, 1 hr every 22.9 ab
 
I mean, that's pretty solid, and he's a player I'd love to have.  But if I had to choose between him and Stanton, I'd take Stanton.  Mostly because the Sox have several quality in-house options to fill SS, but really not much at all to fill the OF.  

 
Tulowitzki's Coors success should translate to Fenway pretty well.  I think he'd be a monster here.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=3531&position=SS&type=battedball
 

 
Plus, both will likely cost similar prospect packages, and Stanton is a lot younger. Tulo's great, but doesn't make a lot of sense for us with our infield flexibility.
 
Stanton is essentially a perfect fit.

 
Stanton might be a better fit in a vacuum, but I don't think the cost will be the same.  You point out the first reason in the age difference.  Tulo is also already costing a ton of money, so if the other team is taking on that salary, it should depress the acquisition cost.  Tulo won't be cheap, but I don't think he'll cost as much as Stanton.  I could see an argument against the cost based on the amount of left side of the infield prospects the Sox currently have, but chances are a good portion of those players would be included in the deal, which would ease the logjam a bit.
 
I'd gladly send Marrero and Cecchini out in a package for Tulo (along with more of course... those two aren't getting it done by a long shot).  It might be a better use of resources than trading for Stanton, depending on the difference in cost.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Cafardo just tweeted that Neal Huntington is at Fenway... I wonder if he's on official business. 
 
https://twitter.com/nickcafardo/status/487318458666082304

 
Despite his Mass. ties, a site visit by a GM would lead to speculation of a deal larger in scope that just a move for, say, Peavy.
 
Or he just wants some clams

 

[Sausage in Section 17]

 
Plus, both will likely cost similar prospect packages, and Stanton is a lot younger. Tulo's great, but doesn't make a lot of sense for us with our infield flexibility.
 
Stanton is essentially a perfect fit.

 
Plus, plus, Tulo will likely be taking that bat, or the 30+ year old version of it, to a new position in a few years. He's a great hitting SS, but will need to hit as well or better than he has to be a premium player at other postions. He'll keep getting the premium pay either way, though.

 

[67WasBest]

I've fantasized we could turn Lackey and Uehara into Polanco for a couple of weeks now.

 

[Corsi]

 

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick  18s
Hearing the news on Yadier Molina's thumb isn't good and #stlcards are prepared to lose him for "extended'' period.
 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

 
Plus, plus, Tulo will likely be taking that bat, or the 30+ year old version of it, to a new position in a few years. He's a great hitting SS, but will need to hit as well or better than he has to be a premium player at other postions. He'll keep getting the premium pay either way, though.

 
Seriously?  The dude has a 179 wRC+ right now.  He could drop 25 points of that and still be David Ortiz from 2013.  He could drop 40 and be Justin Upton this year.  His bat will play anywhere and will continue to play anywhere even after he starts declining.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
 
 

Torn thumb ligament per Ken Rosenthal.  Out 8-12 weeks.

 

[czar]

I've fantasized we could turn Lackey and Uehara into Polanco for a couple of weeks now.

I miss Placido.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Tulowitzki's Coors success should translate to Fenway pretty well.  I think he'd be a monster here.
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=3531&position=SS&type=battedball
 
 
Stanton might be a better fit in a vacuum, but I don't think the cost will be the same.  You point out the first reason in the age difference.  Tulo is also already costing a ton of money, so if the other team is taking on that salary, it should depress the acquisition cost.  Tulo won't be cheap, but I don't think he'll cost as much as Stanton.  I could see an argument against the cost based on the amount of left side of the infield prospects the Sox currently have, but chances are a good portion of those players would be included in the deal, which would ease the logjam a bit.
 
I'd gladly send Marrero and Cecchini out in a package for Tulo (along with more of course... those two aren't getting it done by a long shot).  It might be a better use of resources than trading for Stanton, depending on the difference in cost.

 
I hear you.  But I do think Bogaerts in a couple of years will be producing 25+ homers from the SS position (if they let him play there), and they have no OF power.  Thus, I'd be willing to spend more to land Stanton.
 
Of course, this presumes that Miami is even going to trade Stanton.  No sure thing, that.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Sure, but why do the home runs have to come from the outfield?  If they are getting those from shortstop... a position typically not rife with home run power... they can afford to focus on things like defense in CF and RF.  I'm not saying they shouldn't target good power hitters, but this idea that corner outfielders have to provide power is outdated.

 

[Corsi]

 

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick  23s
My sense is that A.J. Pierzynski is not high on the #stlcards list of potential Molina replacements.
 

 

[Drek717]

If we had an outfield of Middlebrooks, Bradley, Betts, and an infield of Bogaerts, Marrero, Pedroia, Napoli, Vazquez by the end of next year, and if it were producing what we think these guys can produce, I would giggle myself shitless and get on the Travis Shaw bandwagon.

I'd argue we should all get on the Travis Shaw bandwagon anyhow because the supply of good 1Bs is getting scarce and he might be the best of a bad lot come 2016.  
 
Funny how when the PEDs dry up athletically limited sluggers to play lower value defensive positions do too.

 

[ivanvamp]

Sure, but why do the home runs have to come from the outfield?  If they are getting those from shortstop... a position typically not rife with home run power... they can afford to focus on things like defense in CF and RF.  I'm not saying they shouldn't target good power hitters, but this idea that corner outfielders have to provide power is outdated.

 
HR, and offense in general, doesn't have to come from the OF at all.  It just has to come from *somewhere*.  The reason I think Stanton fits better is because the Sox are pretty loaded with IF players of varying abilities offensively and defensively.  So the odds are very good that they can find *someone* to be a very productive player at SS from within the system.  But they have a huge dearth of OF talent, and so that's a much more logical place to invest in a player that is currently outside the organization.

 

[ivanvamp]

I'd argue we should all get on the Travis Shaw bandwagon anyhow because the supply of good 1Bs is getting scarce and he might be the best of a bad lot come 2016.  
 
Funny how when the PEDs dry up athletically limited sluggers to play lower value defensive positions do too.

 
Why isn't Shaw talked about more?  Last 3 seasons in the minors:
 
2012:  .287/.397/.517/.915, 19 hr, 85 rbi, 464 ab
2013:  .221/.342/.394/.736, 16 hr, 50 rbi, 444 ab
2014:  .284/.359/.503/.862, 18 hr, 57 rbi, 338 ab
 
Too limited defensively?  Too "old" (he's currently 24)?  Too many holes in his swing?  It seems like he has solid power.  Will it translate into the majors?

 

[Corsi]

 
Bill Shaikin @BillShaikin  ·  3m
#Angels put CJ Wilson on DL.
 

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

When healthy, Tulo is one of the best in the game. The injury history and the money owed on the remaining contract would scare me off. He's owed $118 million from 2015 to 2020, with a club option for ’21. That's a lot of money tied up for someone that consistently can't stay healthy.
 
A quick breakdown by year after this season..
 
2015: Age 30 - $20,000,000
2016  Age 31 - $20,000,000
2017  Age 32 - $20,000,000
2018  Age 33 - $20,000,000
2019  Age 34 - $20,000,000
2020  Age 35 - $14,000,000
2021  Age 36 -*$15,000,000 $15M Team Option, $4M Buyout

 

[Pilgrim]

Tulo's contract is more of a trade asset than Stanton's lack of one.

 

[Drek717]

 
Why isn't Shaw talked about more?  Last 3 seasons in the minors:
 
2012:  .287/.397/.517/.915, 19 hr, 85 rbi, 464 ab
2013:  .221/.342/.394/.736, 16 hr, 50 rbi, 444 ab
2014:  .284/.359/.503/.862, 18 hr, 57 rbi, 338 ab
 
Too limited defensively?  Too "old" (he's currently 24)?  Too many holes in his swing?  It seems like he has solid power.  Will it translate into the majors?

Well he looked like he regressed massively in AA last year at 23 when he hit worse than he had in his previous AA stint the year before.  He had never hit for much power up to that point either.  So a .220 BA, low SLG guy isn't exactly a guy who will stoke the fires of prospect passion.
 
His AA runt his season was pretty similar to his strong A+ run before getting promoted to AA, and while his numbers are down across the board in AAA compared to AA it isn't like 2012 when his A+ BA of .305 dropped to a AA BA of .227.  He's got a much more well rounded line less reliant on his ability to work a walk.  He also is seeing a nice little hot streak to open July as well.  If he continues to have a solid 2014 now at the AAA level he's going to go from a forgotten man to a top 10 guy in the system for next season.  
 
Hopefully he doesn't take so long to adjust to AAA pitching as he did AA, otherwise that's a bad sign for when he makes the ML jump.
 
I think the current game plan for 1B has to include him though.  Napoli is the guy through 2015, then you give Shaw a shot.  Sam Travis is a polished guy who should move up the system quick if he's going to.  Nick Longhi and Rafael Devers are two very young high upside guys who could move fast as well if the need is there.  Ultimately I'd say that Shaw needs to back this season up in 2015 and if he does so will go into 2016 as the odds on favorite to take over 1B after Nap.

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

I'd sign up for that contract in a Johnny Manziel cocaine heartbeat. He could always be the Papi replacement down the line.

 
I thought about that too, being with the health issues as a possible DH somewhere down the line. $20mil per seems a lot now, but I'm sure the market will prove otherwise in the next few seasons. Just seems like we already have enough players that can cover the left side of the field good enough. As bad as a season it's been, I've loved watching the kids show what they can do.

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

We gave Manny Ramirez (a worse player than Tulo) more money 14 years ago when revenues were probably 25% of what they are today.

 

[MuzzyField]

We gave Manny Ramirez (a worse player than Tulo) more money 14 years ago when revenues were probably 25% of what they are today.

Could you be more specific? Is this a defensive advantage for Troy?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

We gave Manny Ramirez (a better hitter at a less premium position than Tulo) more money 14 years ago when revenues were probably 25% of what they are today.

 
Fixed that for you.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Also, we didn't trade prospects for Ramirez.  What would Tulo command in a trade?  

 

[Marbleheader]

We gave Manny Ramirez (a worse player than Tulo) more money 14 years ago when revenues were probably 25% of what they are today.

Really? There are no other factors to consider? What was the luxury tax situation like in 2000? What's the injury history difference between the two?

 

[BosRedSox5]

Well, technically speaking before this season Tulo had racked up 32.2 WAR in 870 games. Before Manny signed in Boston he had 29.9 in 967 games. Tulo is probably more valuable than Manny was in Cleveland before he signed his deal with Boston. He's both the best defensive shortstop in the NL and the best offensive shortstop in the NL. 

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

I prefer my wording.  Tulowitski is better at playing baseball.  Manny had one season over 6.0 WAR (1999, with Cleveland); Tulo is having his fifth.  Its not that hard.

 

[InsideTheParker]

wrong thread, sorry

 

[FelixMantilla]

Wait, did Manny play half his games in Coors Field?

 

[MuzzyField]

And if both players were available at the time,and you're the Sox GM, which one do you pay? Nomar wants to know.

 

[MakMan44]

Also, we didn't trade prospects for Ramirez.  What would Tulo command in a trade?  

Has to start with Xander, right? Change anyone's mind?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Has to start with Xander, right? Change anyone's mind?

 
I'm pretty sure you can build a package without Bogaerts.  Betts would have to replace him, and maybe for some that's a non-starter, but I think it's possible to keep Bogaerts out of it.

 

[pdaj]

Wait, did Manny play half his games in Coors Field?

 
Tulo's away splits are still pretty dang good; and Fenway Park would suit him very, very well.

 

[gammoseditor]

 
Tulo's away splits are still pretty dang good; and Fenway Park would suit him very, very well.

 
Also, we have stats that adjust for ballparks, and position played.  Both bWAR and fWAR show Tulo to be a better player through the same age.  I agree with those that have pointed to injuries though.  Tulo averaged 115 games per year from 2007-2013.

 

[MakMan44]

 
I'm pretty sure you can build a package without Bogaerts.  Betts would have to replace him, and maybe for some that's a non-starter, but I think it's possible to keep Bogaerts out of it.

I disagree. I think anything but Xander is a non-starter for the Rockies but I'd be extremely happy to be proven wrong. 

 

[Toe Nash]

Well, technically speaking before this season Tulo had racked up 32.2 WAR in 870 games. Before Manny signed in Boston he had 29.9 in 967 games. Tulo is probably more valuable than Manny was in Cleveland before he signed his deal with Boston. He's both the best defensive shortstop in the NL and the best offensive shortstop in the NL. 

Tulowitski is very good defensively but Andrelton Simmons probably has something to say about this statement.

 

[Lowrielicious]

Wait, did Manny play half his games in Coors Field?

This was a big question with Holliday too. He did pretty well after the move away from Mile High.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I disagree. I think anything but Xander is a non-starter for the Rockies but I'd be extremely happy to be proven wrong. 

 
You don't think Betts, Owens, Webster, Devers would be enough?  There's a pretty good argument for it being too much from the Sox, but I think it's enough for the Rockies.  You could probably build a package around Swihart as well.  I'm sure the Rockies would start off by asking for Bogaerts, but if they're drawing the line at that much, there probably isn't a team in the majors that will be willing to pay the price.

 

[benhogan]

If we had an outfield of Middlebrooks, Bradley, Betts, and an infield of Bogaerts, Marrero, Pedroia, Napoli, Vazquez by the end of next year, and if it were producing what we think these guys can produce, I would giggle myself shitless and get on the Travis Shaw bandwagon.

If those our are position players next year, we better have Lester and Scherzer fronting our rotation.
 
I'm not really enamored with the idea of making our hedge fund manager any wealthier.

 

[MakMan44]

 
You don't think Betts, Owens, Webster, Devers would be enough?  There's a pretty good argument for it being too much from the Sox, but I think it's enough for the Rockies.  You could probably build a package around Swihart as well.  I'm sure the Rockies would start off by asking for Bogaerts, but if they're drawing the line at that much, there probably isn't a team in the majors that will be willing to pay the price.

It's hard to say. I think this season is going to drive up his value immensely, especially if they start shopping him in the next couple of weeks. Swihart actually probably presents a better headliner for the Rockies than Mookie IMO, but then there's the question of if it's worth it. 

 

[Hoplite]

I disagree. I think anything but Xander is a non-starter for the Rockies but I'd be extremely happy to be proven wrong. 

 
I would trade Xander for Tulo. His ceiling is to possibly hit as well and he'll never play similar defense.

 

[RetractableRoof]

Well he looked like he regressed massively in AA last year at 23 when he hit worse than he had in his previous AA stint the year before.  He had never hit for much power up to that point either.  So a .220 BA, low SLG guy isn't exactly a guy who will stoke the fires of prospect passion.
 
His AA runt his season was pretty similar to his strong A+ run before getting promoted to AA, and while his numbers are down across the board in AAA compared to AA it isn't like 2012 when his A+ BA of .305 dropped to a AA BA of .227.  He's got a much more well rounded line less reliant on his ability to work a walk.  He also is seeing a nice little hot streak to open July as well.  If he continues to have a solid 2014 now at the AAA level he's going to go from a forgotten man to a top 10 guy in the system for next season.  
 
Hopefully he doesn't take so long to adjust to AAA pitching as he did AA, otherwise that's a bad sign for when he makes the ML jump.
 
I think the current game plan for 1B has to include him though.  Napoli is the guy through 2015, then you give Shaw a shot.  Sam Travis is a polished guy who should move up the system quick if he's going to.  Nick Longhi and Rafael Devers are two very young high upside guys who could move fast as well if the need is there.  Ultimately I'd say that Shaw needs to back this season up in 2015 and if he does so will go into 2016 as the odds on favorite to take over 1B after Nap.

I still think that if Middlebrooks is with the Sox past this year, he will be at 1B long term.  I'm not discounting anything said above, other than to say they may already have a 25 HR / year bat for that position - if he can stay healthy.  And if... and if...  

 

[Plympton91]

Do players traded in the middle of a long-term contract still have a right to demand a trade after the first year with their new team, or am I remembering that they can't do that any more? If they do, then Tulo would likely use that leverage to get a deal closer to the new market value for premium talent.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Do players traded in the middle of a long-term contract still have a right to demand a trade after the first year with their new team, or am I remembering that they can't do that any more? If they do, then Tulo would likely use that leverage to get a deal closer to the new market value for premium talent.

To the best of my knowledge this was done way with int the last CBA .. Or maybe even the one before that.

 

[BosRedSox5]

I still think that if Middlebrooks is with the Sox past this year, he will be at 1B long term.  I'm not discounting anything said above, other than to say they may already have a 25 HR / year bat for that position - if he can stay healthy.  And if... and if...  

 
Not only has Middlebrooks never shown any aptitude for 1B but I doubt very much that his bat plays at first. 

 

[TomRicardo]

Being the Rockies No. 2 starter right now is Franklin Morales (yes, remember him) I would hazard to say the Rockies would want pitching.  Lots of pitching.
 
My guess would be Owens, Barnes/Ranaudo/Webster, Doubront, and Cecchini/Marrero.  Even with Butler and Gray, I would imagine they would take the chance to load up on pitching.
 
Given the choice between Bogaerts/Betts/Owens/Swihart I think the Rockies take Owens.  

 

[jimbobim]

Being the Rockies No. 2 starter right now is Franklin Morales (yes, remember him) I would hazard to say the Rockies would want pitching.  Lots of pitching.
 
My guess would be Owens, Barnes/Ranaudo/Webster, Doubront, and Cecchini/Marrero.  Even with Butler and Gray, I would imagine they would take the chance to load up on pitching.
 
Given the choice between Bogaerts/Betts/Owens/Swihart I think the Rockies take Owens.  

 
I like the idea but the Rockies would probably demand X Owens De La Rosa and probably another pitcher, Tulo is a beast. 

 

[BosRedSox5]

Can you imagine the up the middle defense of Vazquez, Tulo, Pedroia and JBJ? It'd arguably be one of the best ever. 
 
Maybe paying up for Tulo wouldn't be that bad, we could probably live with paying the price for a guy as talented as him. 

 

[bosockboy]

Being the Rockies No. 2 starter right now is Franklin Morales (yes, remember him) I would hazard to say the Rockies would want pitching.  Lots of pitching.
 
My guess would be Owens, Barnes/Ranaudo/Webster, Doubront, and Cecchini/Marrero.  Even with Butler and Gray, I would imagine they would take the chance to load up on pitching.
 
Given the choice between Bogaerts/Betts/Owens/Swihart I think the Rockies take Owens.

I'd pull the trigger on that in a cocaine heartbeat.

 

[Rasputin]

As sexy as Tulo would be, I think we have a decent plan in place that has at least two options at short and messing with the pitching depth to upgrade at short just leaves us with fewer prospects to use to get some left field pop while obviously messing with the pitching depth.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

 
I'm pretty sure you can build a package without Bogaerts.  Betts would have to replace him, and maybe for some that's a non-starter, but I think it's possible to keep Bogaerts out of it.

 
Fine, as long as your package doesn't involve BROCKHOLT!