Revis the Patriot: Countdown to March 10th

[Super Nomario]

How would we feel about Revis' old contract?  The one where he basically had a series of team options at $16million per year.  Would that be better or worse for the Pats?  It would make him the highest paid CB for 2015 and beyond.

I think it's too much money. Every team had a chance at that contract for a late-round pick and passed. Maybe Revis' value is a bit higher after his fine year, but he's also a year older. The Patriots went essentially 1 / $12 MM on his current deal, so Revis' market value figures to be somewhere between 12 and 16. That's where it gets interesting - if the Pats are only willing to go to $13 and someone else goes $15, is that close enough for Revis? Will the Pats go to $14?
 

Revis seems like the sort of guy who recognizes the difference between real money and phony contract numbers.  And he also seems creative in forging new methods to "maximize his value."  The Pats ahve a very young team whose most importnat player is on a very team-friendly contract.  Seems like a positive place to make something work.

In the past, Revis has prioritized maximizing dollars over long-term security, whereas most players will take a little less money for a little more guaranteed. It will be interesting to see if that calculus changes - Revis turns 30 this summer, and if he legitimately likes it in New England he may appreciate a little security rather than hit the market again in another couple years.

 

[Jnai]

I guess for once I'd like to see the Patriots just pay the guy. I'm not optimistic it will happen.
 
Shutdown corners are probably the highest impact players in the NFL outside of Star Quarterbacks. They allow you to effectively dictate every other matchup on the field and consistently force teams to play away from their strengths, which is essentially Belichick's core coaching philosophy. The Revis / Browner tandem is an excellent 1-2 pairing, especially with McCourty at safety, and maybe Butler really puts it together after his stellar end to the Superbowl and emerges as a fourth star or even an above-average player.
 
For all the talk of how much Revis cares about money in this thread, though, I would think that he would be more marketable and would be starring in commercials. If he really wants millions, why isn't he out there pitching Pepsi or Coke or Subway or whatever? He's maybe the best or second best corner in the NFL - I'd be surprised if he couldn't do that kind of stuff. "On Revis Island, the only sandwich you can buy is a Sweet Onion Chicken Pastrami Melt", or whatever.

 

[jsinger121]

The Pats have paid for elite star players in the past. They paid Brady, Seymour the first time, Wilfork, Moss after 2007, Mankins after his holdout. If you are elite at your position and in the league the Pats usually pay you.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Agree on four years, 60 mill area, but 30 mill guaranteed is nowhere near close enough. That's only a little lower than what he's due to make in the dummy year of the current contract.

Revis is one of those players who is so good that even if he got hurt one year, you'd still just wait for him to rehab and get back. You wouldn't necessarily feel like, "Oh NO!!! (Copyright, Pete Carroll) I wish we could just cut him!" So I say go close to fully or actually fully guaranteed - unless there are bookkeeping reasons not to - 4 years, 56-ish mill, retire a Patriot. Or, if he wants one more bite at the FA apple, 3 years, 45 mill.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Agree on four years, 60 mill area, but 30 mill guaranteed is nowhere near close enough. That's only a little lower than what he's due to make in the dummy year of the current contract.

Revis is one of those players who is so good that even if he got hurt one year, you'd still just wait for him to rehab and get back. You wouldn't necessarily feel like, "Oh NO!!! (Copyright, Pete Carroll) I wish we could just cut him!" So I say go close to fully or actually fully guaranteed - unless there are bookkeeping reasons not to - 4 years, 56-ish mill, retire a Patriot. Or, if he wants one more bite at the FA apple, 3 years, 45 mill.

The $30 million guaranteed I would also include some signing bonus money that would bump that figure up.

 

[bankshot1]

I've no idea what really motivates Revis, but I suspect its professional recognition, money/security and legacy, in some order.
 
Revis will never own this team, it's Brady's, but he can cement his role as the missing piece to historic greatness. If he's paid fairly  near the top of the CB market, PLUS he's a big part in 2-in-a-row, that's something that Sherman hasn't done, and may never do in Seattle.
 
Hopefully something gets done that makes sense for both sides.
 
Mr. Kraft, pay the man his money.

 

[ragnarok725]

I've no idea what really motivates Revis, but I suspect its professional recognition, money/security and legacy, in some order.
 
Revis will never own this team, it's Brady's, but he can cement his role as the missing piece to historic greatness. If he's paid fairly  near the top of the CB market, PLUS he's a big part in 2-in-a-row, that's something that Sherman hasn't done, and may never do in Seattle.
 
Hopefully something gets done that makes sense for both sides.
 
Mr. Kraft, pay the man his money.

He's got to know at this point that no team that wins will ever be "his". That's the nature of the position. Even the GOAT at the position isn't remembered as "the guy" on any of his teams (Deion). Revis is the best defender on the team, the missing piece to a championship, and as a CB that's probably the most you can possibly hope for legacy-wise unless you prefer being regarded as the best player on a losing team.

 

[dynomite]

I guess for once I'd like to see the Patriots just pay the guy. I'm not optimistic it will happen. ... Shutdown corners are probably the highest impact players in the NFL outside of Star Quarterbacks.

 

As others have said, the Patriots only pay guys who are truly irreplaceable: Brady, Wilfork, Mankins, Moss (EDIT per js below: Gronk, Hernandez). I think Revis qualifies.

I also think he's the 3rd most irreplaceable player on the 2014 Patriots:
1) Brady
2) Gronk
3) Revis
 

The Revis / Browner tandem is an excellent 1-2 pairing, especially with McCourty at safety, and maybe Butler really puts it together after his stellar end to the Superbowl and emerges as a fourth star or even an above-average player.

So I wrote about this in the 2015 thread, and it's not exactly Revis-related, but this is crucial. Sub defense is the new Base defense in the NFL, meaning that your 3rd/slot CB is a starter. Part of why retaining Revis is simply a necessity is that (prior to free agency/draft) we already need to start one of Butler/Arrington/Ryan/Dennard. The idea of having to start 2 of them is devastating.
 

For all the talk of how much Revis cares about money in this thread, though, I would think that he would be more marketable and would be starring in commercials. If he really wants millions, why isn't he out there pitching Pepsi or Coke or Subway or whatever? He's maybe the best or second best corner in the NFL - I'd be surprised if he couldn't do that kind of stuff. "On Revis Island, the only sandwich you can buy is a Sweet Onion Chicken Pastrami Melt", or whatever.

Smart point that I haven't seen others make. Sherman shills for Campbell's Soup, Beats by Dre, Nike, Fathead, and probably additional companies. Searching Google I found a pretty funny Revis commercial for Dick's Sporting Goods from 2010 and... that's about it.

As an aside, I would imagine part of the Patriots' pitch to Revis will be showing him how much people like him and Papi and Pedroia and Gronk can make in New England regional endorsements -- Dunkin Donuts, etc.

Edit: Here's the Revis commercial:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uefp1UaGDow

 

[jsinger121]

The Pats have paid for elite star players in the past. They paid Brady, Seymour the first time, Wilfork, Moss after 2007, Mankins after his holdout. If you are elite at your position and in the league the Pats usually pay you.

I failed to mention the Pats paid Gronk at the top of the market and also invested in Hernandez before he went off the rail.

 

[GeorgeCostanza]

You mean before they knew he went off the rail. I believe he already murdered 2 people before signing the extension.

Allegedly.

 

[bradmahn]

 
So I wrote about this in the 2015 thread, and it's not exactly Revis-related, but this is crucial. Sub defense is the new Base defense in the NFL, meaning that your 3rd/slot CB is a starter. Part of why retaining Revis is simply a necessity is that (prior to free agency/draft) we already need to start one of Butler/Arrington/Ryan/Dennard. The idea of having to start 2 of them is devastating.
 

Maybe I'm misreading your point regarding the Butler/Arrington/Ryan/Dennard sentence, but you make it sound like the Pats are at a disadvantage with that group as 3-6 on the depth chart. I love that they have more than enough ability to match up against multiple styles of WR and are superb complementary pieces to a guy like Browner who can make up for their size deficiencies in certain matchups.

Obviously asking them to replace Revis would be a huge task, but devastating is hyperbolic to me.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

You mean before they knew he went off the rail. I believe he already murdered 2 people before signing the extension.

Allegedly.

Im still holding out hope hes suiting up for the pats for the playoff run next season.

Innocent until proven guilty!

 

[mwonow]

Maybe I'm misreading your point regarding the Butler/Arrington/Ryan/Dennard sentence, but you make it sound like the Pats are at a disadvantage with that group as 3-6 on the depth chart. I love that they have more than enough ability to match up against multiple styles of WR and are superb complementary pieces to a guy like Browner who can make up for their size deficiencies in certain matchups.

Obviously asking them to replace Revis would be a huge task, but devastating is hyperbolic to me.

I think the point was that these guys are fine 3-6, not so much if they're 2-5. Also, Browner at 2 looks better than Browner at 1, at least IMO. More Revis, please!

 

[alydar]

Amazing to me that we're now talking about CBs like we would a starting pitching rotation. Totally merited, but even 10 years ago, worrying about your 4th string CB ahead of, say, your starting RB would have been considered insane.

 

[dynomite]

Edit:
 

I think the point was that these guys are fine 3-6, not so much if they're 2-5. Also, Browner at 2 looks better than Browner at 1, at least IMO. More Revis, please!

Exactly. Said in 3 sentences what it takes me 3 paragraphs to say. Good work!
 

Maybe I'm misreading your point regarding the Butler/Arrington/Ryan/Dennard sentence, but you make it sound like the Pats are at a disadvantage with that group as 3-6 on the depth chart. I love that they have more than enough ability to match up against multiple styles of WR and are superb complementary pieces to a guy like Browner who can make up for their size deficiencies in certain matchups.

Obviously asking them to replace Revis would be a huge task, but devastating is hyperbolic to me.

No, sorry, 3-6 is fine. But you say they're solid complementary pieces, and I think they are... to a Hall of Famer like Revis who can erase any WR in the league one-on-one, leaving both Safeties free to help the CBs, blitz, provide run support. (Not to mention that they come off the field in many situations that only call for 1 or 2 CBs, minimizing their exposure)

But take Revis away? Make Browner the #1 and those guys his backups? All of a sudden I feel like we're back to the 2013 or 2012 AFC Championship Games, where our secondary just got run over by bigger, faster, stronger WRs. Browner helps, but again, I think he looks a hell of a lot better when he has a safety providing support.

That said:
- Logan Ryan had a very good season, and could be developing into an excellent 3rd CB... but his play in the Super Bowl felt like a step back. For the 1st Quarter he was suffocating... but at the end of the 2nd Quarter it looked like he was a little overwhelmed. That TD catch he allowed to Matthews -- backing off the ball, not fouling him, not even reading the QB -- was one of the biggest situational mistakes I saw a Patriots player make in 2014. And, while this was probably by design and is incredibly unfair of me, I remember the split second at the end of this year's Divisional game vs. the Ravens when it was clear that Torrey Smith had beaten Ryan to the end zone... but then Harmon comes into the frame and all is right with the world.
- Malcolm Butler flashed in camp and as for the Super Bowl... well, he became a legend. And it wasn't just that one play -- he had amazing coverage on the Kearse catch and generally played his ass off once he got on the field.

Anyway, I'm okay with a rotating cast of Ryan/Arrington/Butler/Dennard at 3rd CB... so long as Revis is on the field. But I still think they might be able to upgrade that position, and I think going from those guys at CB 3-6 to those guys at CB 2-5 could be "devastating."

Amother edit:
 

Amazing to me that we're now talking about CBs like we would a starting pitching rotation. Totally merited, but even 10 years ago, worrying about your 4th string CB ahead of, say, your starting RB would have been considered insane.

I know. Obviously an RB remains more important than your 4th CB, but given the Patriots defense played 67% of their snaps in their Sub defense... Sub is the new Base, and your 3rd CB is practically a starter. http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/category/_/name/rise-of-sub-defense

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The numbers say whatever they say, and Revis didn't hold opposing WRs with 0 catches all season. But what he does is allow you to simply not worry about his guy. It frees up a safety who might have to stay over the top on someone and move him into run support or something else.
 
I feel pretty secure in thinking he'll be back. I think he's found his football nirvana.

I've felt strongly all season long that Talib brought a lot of the same to the table as well a tick below Revis and that the REAL difference in our DB was Browner as the #2 guy to allow Ryan, Arrington, etc to drop down on the depth chart while allowing McCourty the ability to help the LB in coverage.

Obviously it all begins with the #1 slot so you need one of the two lockdowns out there but it was no coincidence that our season turned around after Week 4 once Browner's suspension was up.

Yes, we need to get Revis back but he's a money grabber which he has every right to be. The $25m was an admitted placeholder as Jon Kraft stated. He's going to be released before any real hard core negotiations begin I'm fairly certain of this. Oh boy the media is going to run with that!!

 

[jsinger121]

I've felt strongly all season long that Talib brought a lot of the same to the table as well a tick below Revis and that the REAL difference in our DB was Browner as the #2 guy to allow Ryan, Arrington, etc to drop down on the depth chart while allowing McCourty the ability to help the LB in coverage.

Obviously it all begins with the #1 slot so you need one of the two lockdowns out there but it was no coincidence that our season turned around after Week 4 once Browner's suspension was up.

Yes, we need to get Revis back but he's a money grabber which he has every right to be. The $25m was an admitted placeholder as Jon Kraft stated. He's going to be released before any real hard core negotiations begin I'm fairly certain of this. Oh boy the media is going to run with that!!

 
Watching Talib in the playoffs showed me how great Revis is and that the difference is much greater than you giving him credit. Talib was absolutely brutal in the playoffs, has a knack for getting hurt. 

 

[dynomite]

First of all, HRB -- Sorry again about the response in the Wilfork thread -- thanks for bringing the discussion here. Good on you.

Second:
 

I've felt strongly all season long that Talib brought a lot of the same to the table as well a tick below Revis and that the REAL difference in our DB was Browner as the #2 guy to allow Ryan, Arrington, etc to drop down on the depth chart while allowing McCourty the ability to help the LB in coverage.

I certainly think Browner was important to the secondary, but I still think Revis was the glue that held everything together. Browner worked well when put in the right situation: help from a safety, or a matchup against a similarly big WR. But -- for example -- he was so mismatched with the Colts that he got benched in the AFCCG in favor of a faster, smaller CB.

To me, Browner is a matchup-type CB, the kind of guy who can be an incredible piece of an ensemble but not a solo artist.
 

Yes, we need to get Revis back but he's a money grabber which he has every right to be. The $25m was an admitted placeholder as Jon Kraft stated. He's going to be released before any real hard core negotiations begin I'm fairly certain of this. Oh boy the media is going to run with that!!

I'm not so sure about that. As I read it, the Krafts (and the front office staff) are going to put on a full court press to sign him to an extension before it gets to that point. He's looking to be the best paid CB in the NFL -- if the Patriots offer that and he feels like it's roughly the best deal he could get, I could see him signing.

In addition, they have until at least March 10 (when the new NFL league year begins) -- and according to NFL.com perhaps even as long as April 1 (when his $12 million roster bonus is due) -- to work something out, so I think they have some time.

 

[soxhop411]

Jason Cole ‏@JasonPhilCole  2m2 minutes ago
Insider Buzz: Jets Only Want Cromartie Reunion If They Can't Land Darrelle Revis http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2360055-insider-buzz-jets-only-want-cromartie-reunion-if-they-cant-land-darrelle-revis?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=web-mob-art-vid-147 … via @bleacherreport

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

Why does Revis supposedly want to go to NY again?  Rex is gone and the team sucks...seriously, what is the supposed appeal?

 

[BroodsSexton]

<p>Jason Cole ‏@JasonPhilCole  2m2
link to tweet minutes ago
Insider Buzz: Jets Only Want Cromartie Reunion If They Can't Land Darrelle Revis

Seems like a good way to negotiate.

 

[dynomite]

For the same reason that people were reporting that his first choice had been to sign with the Jets last offseason even though he signed with the Patriots within hours of becoming a free agent: rumors from unnamed sources.

Edit: damn autocorr

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

Why does Revis supposedly want to go to NY again?  Rex is gone and the team sucks...seriously, what is the supposed appeal?

 
This whole thread so far is "supposedly": all the speculation so far as to why Revis would choose one team over another is merely that: speculation. 
 
If money is the tiebreaker or the overwhelming factor in his decision tree, the Jets have plenty under the cap to pay any man his money, so they have a better chance of signing him if that's the prime ingredient to any deal. 

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

 
Jason Cole ‏@JasonPhilCole  2m2 minutes ago
Insider Buzz: Jets Only Want Cromartie Reunion If They Can't Land Darrelle Revis http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2360055-insider-buzz-jets-only-want-cromartie-reunion-if-they-cant-land-darrelle-revis?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=web-mob-art-vid-147 … via @bleacherreport
 

 
Since that appeared to be "two assholes and their hot takes" video I didn't stick around to listen.
 
That said, if Cro' reads the papers and thinks he was their second choice, that'd put a chip on his shoulder. And as said upstream, if they don't land Revis it factors into their negotiations with Cro'. 

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

Sure, I've just seen Jason Cole keep pushing the Jets want Revis story all over the place as if it's news.  I don't see where they have any kind of inside track now that Rex is gone.  I fail to see how it's any different than the Rams or Titans being interested in Revis.
 
That's my beef, not that it's speculation, but that there's no real reason for it to be news.
 
It stinks of click-bait for Jets and Patriots fans.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

First of all, HRB -- Sorry again about the response in the Wilfork thread -- thanks for bringing the discussion here. Good on you.

Second:
 

I certainly think Browner was important to the secondary, but I still think Revis was the glue that held everything together. Browner worked well when put in the right situation: help from a safety, or a matchup against a similarly big WR. But -- for example -- he was so mismatched with the Colts that he got benched in the AFCCG in favor of a faster, smaller CB.

To me, Browner is a matchup-type CB, the kind of guy who can be an incredible piece of an ensemble but not a solo artist.
 

I'm not so sure about that. As I read it, the Krafts (and the front office staff) are going to put on a full court press to sign him to an extension before it gets to that point. He's looking to be the best paid CB in the NFL -- if the Patriots offer that and he feels like it's roughly the best deal he could get, I could see him signing.

In addition, they have until at least March 10 (when the new NFL league year begins) -- and according to NFL.com perhaps even as long as April 1 (when his $12 million roster bonus is due) -- to work something out, so I think they have some time.

While this is all likely true that the Pats would make an aggressive restructure......if you're Revis and you have ALL the leverage why wouldn't you open up the market when the market certainly will be there for the best lockdown corner of our generation and probably of all-time w Deion?

Taking a more team friendly deal to not test the market goes against his M.O.

 

[nighthob]

Even being the highest paid CB in football is team friendly compared to the present cap hit.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

The Jets have a pending tampering claim as to Revis; it's really hard for me to imagine them signing him with that unresolved.  They would, in that scenario, effectively be hoping the league didn't impose a huge penalty and that makes the effective cost for Revis very high---signing him when it might actually cost you 1-2 1st round picks (something up to, or less than, a franchise player signing, as a guess at what a comp argument might look like).

Far better from their perspective to push for resolution of that and, if it drags into FA (which I'd guess it would, because it gives the league an easy way out by effectively taking Jets out for Revis this year) target someone else, I think

 

[Stitch01]

The Jets could release a book today called "If Revis was available as a free agent", detail their exact offer for him, sign him to that offer at 12:01 AM the day free agency started, and they're never ever losing anything close to a first round pick.

 

[Marbleheader]

Wasn't the Belichick compensation of a first round pick to the Jets based on tampering? This is more serious than Spygate, so I think multiple first rounders are in order. Maybe some pizza too.

The 49ers were docked a fifth and had to swap third rounders for tampering with Lance Briggs a few years ago.

 

[TrotWaddles]

I think they'll sign Revis for 4/$60 million with $30 million guaranteed.

This sounds about right. Probably only pay 2 of that unless he's a total freak at age 32.

 

[southshoresoxfan]

The Jets could release a book today called "If Revis was available as a free agent", detail their exact offer for him, sign him to that offer at 12:01 AM the day free agency started, and they're never ever losing anything close to a first round pick.

Reminds me of OJs book

 

[Stitch01]

Wasn't the Belichick compensation of a first round pick to the Jets based on tampering? This is more serious than Spygate, so I think multiple first rounders are in order. Maybe some pizza too.

The 49ers were docked a fifth and had to swap third rounders for tampering with Lance Briggs a few years ago.

BB was under contract so it wasn't tampering as much as a trade.

 

[JimBoSox9]

Reminds me of OJs book

 
Thanks Ben.

 

[RedOctober3829]

@alexmarvez: As good as he is, @MarkdominikESPN says no way @Patriots keep CB @Revis24 at $25M cap hit. Thinks good chance NE deal gets done @SiriusXMNFL

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Gee, ya think?

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Drunk and repeated myself. Carey on

 

[PedroKsBambino]

The Jets could release a book today called "If Revis was available as a free agent", detail their exact offer for him, sign him to that offer at 12:01 AM the day free agency started, and they're never ever losing anything close to a first round pick.

 
I believe Pats argument on comp would be that Revis is a franchise player, and that given the 2015 salary and tampering proper compensation should be set at same place.  I'm not sure they'd win that, but it's a credible description of the situation here and, as I noted above, the risk the Jets are managing in making a decision---because while none of us expect that high a compensation, the Jets shouldn't rule it out.

 

[Stitch01]

I think if the extent of tampering is woodys statement that expecting a 7th round pick is expecting too much, so we see this very differently.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I think if the extent of tampering is woodys statement that expecting a 7th round pick is expecting too much, so we see this very differently.

 
Perhaps; you also are not quite understanding part of the point I'm making---the Jets know there is a complaint and some merit, and don't know the outcome. So they have risk here that is of uncertain size, which enters into the assessment for them.  Or it should---whether it does, well, it is the Jets.  
 
My guess at what happens is 1) Pats work out a deal and if not 2) League lets Jets know that it is not a good idea for them to pursue Revis, anyway.

 

[Stitch01]

If I ran the Jets it wouldn't change how I bid for Revis at all. There is no precedent for that sort of massive penalty for a foot fault type tampering violation. I expect they pursue Revis aggressively if he hits the open market.

Edit: wouldn't the league telling the Jets not to pursue Revis on the open market be a blatant CBA violation?

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I think if you go back and read about other tampering penalties you'd be wiser to consider it a factor, which has been my point.  If I were the Pats I'd argue that the impact here is very high; the Jets would argue as you are here.  My point has been that there is uncertainty where the league lands in between that.

Whether or not you'd consider that uncertainty, it simply does exist and thus should enter into their thinking.   At least, it should if they are smart about it---not all teams are, obviously.

 

[Stitch01]

I think chances of a penalty are so small that it shouldn't alter their thinking much if at all. Agree to disagree.

Is there a tampering penalty that cost a team a first and second round pick that I missed?

 

[jsinger121]

I think chances of a penalty are so small that it shouldn't alter their thinking much if at all. Agree to disagree.

Is there a tampering penalty that cost a team a first and second round pick that I missed?

Well the Jets tampered with Parcells yet ended up working out a deal for him. It was a pretty known fact they indeed tampered with him.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I think chances of a penalty are so small that it shouldn't alter their thinking much if at all. Agree to disagree.

Is there a tampering penalty that cost a team a first and second round pick that I missed?

 
I do't disagree too much with where you think it is most likely to land, but you are completely missing all subtlety and risk that exists around that 'most probable' outcome...which has been my point (and one you seem to have blown by posting quickly)
 
The facts of these things all vary, and Revis' contractual situation is a little unusual (he's not a pending FA, necessarily).  It's quite reasonable for people to cite 'trade' type tampering compensation, whether or not you think it is parallel--as noted (and as even you can't dispute) there is uncertainty here.   The actual point I made was that the Patriots will analogize to a franchise player signing (and as you may know, that is the comp for such a signing).  They may not get all of that value (I do not expect them to, as I've noted) but if you are the Jets you should be factoring in the uncertainty that you don't know where league will land.

 

[Stitch01]

No I understand your point. When the uncertainty is realistically over whether the worst case penalty is a fifth round pick or a seventh round pick, it's not going to change their calculus. They should be weighting losing anything more than that at about 0.0001% when they do their decision tree based on the history of tampering penalties, the actual offense, who committed the offense, and Roger's current appetite for handing the Pats a windfall. I think the Jets are silly for pursuing Revis for other reasons, but this isn't going to change their calculus IMO.

If the Pats keep Revis under contract they most certainly could work out a trade with the Jets. I am pretty sure they cant cut him, put him on the market, then argue to the league that the Jets need to give them a certain level of compensation. I don't think that's how either tampering complaints (teams get to demand compensation for another team to sign a free agent) or the CBA works.

Hopefully the Pats sign him before he hits the open market.

 

[bankshot1]

http://www.dawgtalkers.net/uploads/2009%20NFL%20Anti-Tampering%20Policy.pdf
 
From the NFL's anti-tampering policy (p 3)
 
Any public or private statement of interest, qualified or unqualified, in another club’s player to that player’s agent or representative, or to a member of the news media, is a violation of this Anti-Tampering Policy.
 
(Example of a prohibited comment: “He’s an excellent player, and we’d very much like to have him if he were available, but another club holds his rights.”) All clubs should be aware that improper disclosure of confidential trade discussions with another club may be a violation of this section on prohibited public statements.
       
From p.13 of the policy Any violation of this Anti-Tampering Policy will subject the involved club and/or person to severe disciplinary action by the Commissioner. The League office will promulgate to all clubs the details of any penalties imposed for tampering.
 
 
 
 
Woody J gave a textbook example of tampering. What level of "severe disciplinary action" the NFL decides to levy on the Jets is another matter. 
 
edit: this was a pain in the ass to copy/paste

 

[PedroKsBambino]

No I understand your point. When the uncertainty is realistically over whether the worst case penalty is a fifth round pick or a seventh round pick, it's not going to change their calculus. They should be weighting losing anything more than that at about 0.0001% when they do their decision tree based on the history of tampering penalties, the actual offense, who committed the offense, and Roger's current appetite for handing the Pats a windfall. I think the Jets are silly for pursuing Revis for other reasons, but this isn't going to change their calculus IMO.

If the Pats keep Revis under contract they most certainly could work out a trade with the Jets. I am pretty sure they cant cut him, put him on the market, then argue to the league that the Jets need to give them a certain level of compensation. I don't think that's how either tampering complaints (teams get to demand compensation for another team to sign a free agent) or the CBA works.

Hopefully the Pats sign him before he hits the open market.

 
The above makes clearly you really don't understand the points being made, actually.   You've come to a single no-variance conclusion about what occurred, how the league will think about it, what comp regime will apply given Revis contractual situation at the time of the violation, and the teams involved. You might be right in each of your assessments, but the point several of us have made is it's not cut and dried as you seem to have concluded across all those variables. 
 
Take a look at the contractual posture of, say, Briggs at the time of the tampering and where he ended up signing after the tampering and let me know if you see any differences from the scenario under discussion (Revis goes to Jets).  And so on.

 

[Stitch01]

Again, it's not that I'm not following your argument. I just disagree heavily on the level underlying risk and the conclusion that it's likely to change how the Jets approach Revis.

Assuming the Jets signing Revis will effect the penalty (and I think that's reasonable although there is an argument the Pats were damaged even if he signs with another team) Here is my rough guess as to the underlying likelihood of penalty

Fine: 95 percent
Low draft choice: 4.999 percent
Larger penalty: 0.0001 percent.

Given those assumptions, what affect do you think potential penalties should have on a Jets contract offer?

I get that we have different underlying assumptions and I didn't mean to be personal/belittle your argument with my initial joke. I just don't think there is the same level of risk/uncertainty that you do.

 

[finnVT]

Again, it's not that I'm not following your argument. I just disagree heavily on the level underlying risk and the conclusion that it's likely to change how the Jets approach Revis.

Assuming the Jets signing Revis will effect the penalty (and I think that's reasonable although there is an argument the Pats were damaged even if he signs with another team) Here is my rough guess as to the underlying likelihood of penalty

Fine: 95 percent
Low draft choice: 4.999 percent
Larger penalty: 0.0001 percent.

Given those assumptions, what affect do you think potential penalties should have on a Jets contract offer?

I get that we have different underlying assumptions and I didn't mean to be personal/belittle your argument with my initial joke. I just don't think there is the same level of risk/uncertainty that you do.

What are you basing this on?  Have some precedents?
 
Briggs cost SF a 5th rounder and a swap of 3rds.  And they didn't even sign him. (edit: and maybe even more to the point, CHI retained him). Revis is a higher profile player, and if the Jets were to actually sign him, the penalty would logically go way, way up.  What's the rationale for thinking that Revis should have a lower penalty than Briggs if the Jets were to actually sign him?