Rosenthal: Tanaka signs with Yankees

[StuckOnYouk]

Regardless of age, I'm more confident that tanaka will underachive on his deal than Cano, but maybe that's just me.

 

[EvilEmpire]

So they spend the money instead on a guy who hasn't thrown a single pitch in the major leagues, and they "know" only through video, scouting and a face-to-face or two?
 
I agree with your point about Cano, but they're doing the exact opposite by signing an unknown quantity.

If high end pitchers were on the market, they'd go after them. They really need pitching, pitching is harder to find, Tanaka clearly has talent, and is very young. Clearly the Yankees think there is a very good chance that they will get good production for the length of the deal. And again, I don't think it was ever a case of Cano or Tanaka. They would have been thrilled to have Cano and Tanaka.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Cano is a lot older and they know him better than we do. Your argument would have been the same one they could have made to themselves (and maybe did) with the last ARod extension. For all we know, they think Cano is a lock for the next four year of high end production and were willing to accept risk for the last 3 years of a 7 year deal, but not 6 on a 10 year deal.

The Yankees have always been willing to spend money for talent and production, but that doesn't mean they want to be paying years and years of dead money. For whatever reason, they thought the risk of that with Cano was too high.

 
This is all reasonable but when we're talking about years we're really still talking about money.  Put it this way- would you be pissed if NY signed Cano to a 210/7 deal?  Given their resources they could easily pay that and it wouldn't impact other moves.  Now if you're ok with that, what's the problem with say a 225/10 deal?  Is it the extra $15m starting 7 years from now, or is it just the principle of giving someone 10 years instead of 7 years?

 

[Brickowski]

Sure, length of contract was a big issue, but I'm guessing there were others. I tend to believe the rumors of a rift between Cano and Girardi because Cano only wanted to hit third.

 

[Doc Zero]

They would have been thrilled to have Cano and Tanaka.

 
Yeah, but they could have had this.  Easily.

 

[E5 Yaz]

If high end pitchers were on the market, they'd go after them. They really need pitching, pitching is harder to find, Tanaka clearly has talent, and is very young. Clearly the Yankees think there is a very good chance that they will get good production for the length of the deal.

 
Like we did with Dice-K.
 
The underlying point is ... no one knows. At all. Those who have seen him can make the educated guesses, but it's a crap shoot. They may well get good production from him for 7 years. But it's a helluva risk to make him a Top 5 paid pitcher at this stage

 

[E5 Yaz]

Instant trivia answer:
 
The Yankees announced that they've designated left-hander David Huff for assignment in order to clear a 40-man roster spot for Masahiro Tanaka.

 

[DanoooME]

Regardless of age, I'm more confident that tanaka will underachive on his deal than Cano, but maybe that's just me.

 
Why?

 

[Worst Trade Evah]

 
While still managing to let their best player go elsewhere, don't forget.

Well, the other contracts aren't exactly good, but the Cano contract is a nightmare. They were right not to match that, no matter what. Over-spending on some contracts isn't a reason to go completely nuts on another.

 

[E5 Yaz]

The ultimate "we'll never know" question is what they could have signed Cano for had they not signed Ellsbury first

 

[glennhoffmania]

Sure, length of contract was a big issue, but I'm guessing there were others. I tend to believe the rumors of a rift between Cano and Girardi because Cano only wanted to hit third.

 
If they chose Girardi over Cano then they're dumber than we all currently think.

 

[EvilEmpire]

This is all reasonable but when we're talking about years we're really still talking about money.  Put it this way- would you be pissed if NY signed Cano to a 210/7 deal?  Given their resources they could easily pay that and it wouldn't impact other moves.  Now if you're ok with that, what's the problem with say a 225/10 deal?  Is it the extra $15m starting 7 years from now, or is it just the principle of giving someone 10 years instead of 7 years?

I care about the amounts and potential dead years in the context of how they limit other moves down the road. We know the Yankees have tremendous resources, but ownership still has a limit on how much payroll they will allow. I don't know what that limit is, but Cashman does. That is the line I care about. If a10-year Cano deal (or any deal) limits that flexibility, hell no, I don't want them going there. I don't think he'll even be paying 2B over the last half of that deal.

 

[InsideTheParker]

 
You missed a couple Japanese pitchers there.

My point wasn't Japanese per se, but a style of pitching. Greater velocity from Tanaka, but again a masterful split-finger fastball.

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
No.  But there is still time to pick up Drew, another SP, and entire bullpen.  They still lack any depth but maybe HGH-Sabathia (I mean they got a bunch of guys pinched in Biogenesis I am sure the Yankees have found a new lab to send their players) will bounce back.

 
I know this is a bit tangential, but there's no way that's HGH. Dude clearly had the Charlie Weis surgery, or some similar type of deal. Either that or he's seriously depressed/has AIDS.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
I know this is a bit tangential, but there's no way that's HGH. Dude clearly had the Charlie Weis surgery, or some similar type of deal. Either that or he's seriously depressed/has AIDS.

 
You owe everyone $10

 

[EvilEmpire]

Like we did with Dice-K.
 
The underlying point is ... no one knows. At all. Those who have seen him can make the educated guesses, but it's a crap shoot. They may well get good production from him for 7 years. But it's a helluva risk to make him a Top 5 paid pitcher at this stage

Absolutely, there is a ton of risk.

 

[glennhoffmania]

I care about the amounts and potential dead years in the context of how they limit other moves down the road. We know the Yankees have tremendous resources, but ownership still has a limit on how much payroll they will allow. I don't know what that limit is, but Cashman does. That is the line I care about. If a10-year Cano deal (or any deal) limits that flexibility, hell no, I don't want them going there. I don't think he'll even be paying 2B over the last half of that deal.

 
Ok but again, if they signed him for 210/7 would you be ok with that, thinking that at worst it's two dead years (although I don't see why he wouldn't be a usable player when he's 38 even if not at 2B)?  And do you really think that deal would limit flexibility? 
 
I mean, did ARod's deal limit flexibility in 2008 or 2014?  Of course they have some sort of payroll limit but they spent about $250m last year and they managed to survive.  Even with Tanaka they're still well below that as of now.
 
The dead years are irrelevant to them.  The question is whether he'd be worth the total amount they'd pay him, because whatever his salary is in 2021 won't prevent them from signing whoever the hell they want.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Sure, length of contract was a big issue, but I'm guessing there were others. I tend to believe the rumors of a rift between Cano and Girardi because Cano only wanted to hit third.

If that's true, get rid of Girardi and keep the future HOF.  Unless they know something about Cano that the rest of us don't (PEDs?), I don't see why they wouldn't have signed him if they were bound to go over the threshold anyhow.  I understand their reluctance to go 10 years ever again, but I don't think that's anymore risky with a guy like Cano than 7 years on a guy who has (for the umpteenth time in this thread) not thrown a single pitch in the majors.

 

[Devizier]

Tanaka versus Cano:
 
Best estimate of Cano's future value has him pegged as 32-35 WAR over the next ten years. The Mariners, in other words, paid roughly 7 to 7.5 million per win.
 
The Yankees are paying roughly $22 million per year ($25 million if you include the posting fee) for Tanaka's services. For him to provide roughly equal value, he needs to be worth roughly 3 WAR per season (3.5 again if you include the posting fee). In player terms that covers a lot of interesting careers over the past decade, including guys who started brilliantly and faded hard (Barry Zito, Carlos Zambrano) to more boring, steady performer types (Freddy Garcia, Jeff Weaver). If Tanaka is as good as people hope, these sorts of performances should be pretty achievable. Incidentally, Andy Pettitte pitched at about this level just last season (!)
 
If Tanaka pitches as well as Dan Haren -- who he is often compared to -- over this period, the Yankees recoup some surplus value versus the Cano contract. Frankly, their bigger concern should be squeezing that kind of value out of Ellsbury. Injuries are, of course, a huge concern with any pitcher contract. I think what this deal shows is what a great deal (!) the Dodgers got on the Kershaw extension.

 

[TomRicardo]

You should probably eliminate a year for the inevitable Tommy John surgery.

 

[Doctor G]

I care about the amounts and potential dead years in the context of how they limit other moves down the road. We know the Yankees have tremendous resources, but ownership still has a limit on how much payroll they will allow. I don't know what that limit is, but Cashman does. That is the line I care about. If a10-year Cano deal (or any deal) limits that flexibility, hell no, I don't want them going there. I don't think he'll even be paying 2B over the last half of that deal.

Given Cano's future value as a DH , I wonder how much Cano's relationship with Mr. Rodriquez influenced the Yankees  approach to the negotiation. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

Ok but again, if they signed him for 210/7 would you be ok with that, thinking that at worst it's two dead years (although I don't see why he wouldn't be a usable player when he's 38 even if not at 2B)?  And do you really think that deal would limit flexibility? 
 /quote]

I don't know -- it really depends on whatever their actual internal limit is. I don't know what players they've passed on going after over their last few years with their current payroll and I don't know what opportunities they'll pass on in the future if they are already at that limit.

Given their financial resources, why do you think they passed on Cano at 10 years?

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
You owe everyone $10

 
Are you injecting CC in bathroom stalls at Miami nightclubs?
 
ERrrrr, I mean with HGH.

 

[themactavish]

I'm glad the Yanks signed Tanaka. That means to me that in the long run Ben should respond by making the Sox even better.

Though I delight in seeing the Yankees squander money and underperform, I think this move makes the baseball in the AL East more interesting.  I enjoy the idea of the Yankees spending zillions and being bad, but the plot lines are definitely more interesting this way (with Tanaka and Ellsbury playing in NY), and at the end of the day, it actually is more interesting and satisfying to see the Sox and Yankees both put good teams on the board (and then have the Sox win in a wild match of titans).  You can get some satisfaction out of seeing the Sox kick around a weak Yankees team, but it can't be as good or last as long as seeing the Sox prevail over a worthier opponent (kind of like Achilles stomping Hector, as opposed to Woody Allen).

 

[glennhoffmania]

I don't know -- it really depends on whatever their actual internal limit is. I don't know what players they've passed on going after over their last few years with their current payroll and I don't know what opportunities they'll pass on in the future if they are already at that limit.

Given their financial resources, why do you think they passed on Cano at 10 years?

 
Honestly, I don't really have a clue other than the speculation I posted earlier (either PED use or they know about a physical issue).  Besides that, they were serious about staying under the cap until Tanaka was posted and screwed the whole thing up.
 
Another scenario- they don't sign Ellsbury or McCann, saving about $240m, but they sign Cano and Salty for about $240m.  They're still under the cap without Tanaka and still have one of the top five players in MLB.

 

[glennhoffmania]

If that's true, get rid of Girardi and keep the future HOF.  Unless they know something about Cano that the rest of us don't (PEDs?), I don't see why they wouldn't have signed him if they were bound to go over the threshold anyhow.  I understand their reluctance to go 10 years ever again, but I don't think that's anymore risky with a guy like Cano than 7 years on a guy who has (for the umpteenth time in this thread) not thrown a single pitch in the majors.

 
It's almost like you don't read anything I post.  Weird.

 

[Average Reds]

Oedipus Hank speaks:
 

 
“We’re going to do what we’ve got to do to win. We had to make sure we had enough pitching to go together with our new lineup,” said Hank Steinbrenner following the signing. “There has been criticism of myself and my brother the last couple years that, gee, if our dad was still in charge, we’d be spending this and spending that and doing whatever it takes to win. He didn’t have revenue sharing, at least for most of his time. That’s what these people in the sports media don’t seem to get. If it wasn’t for revenue sharing, we’d have a payroll of $300M a year if we wanted to. So we’re doing this despite having to pay all that revenue sharing.”

 
I can almost feel the unresolved emotional pain from here...
 
http://riveraveblues.com/2014/01/details-of-the-yankees-contract-agreement-with-masahiro-tanaka-98819/

 

[joe dokes]

So now they have Tanaka, Sabathia, Nova, Kuroda and Pineda. Does that scare anyone?

 
I'd be excited if I could pitch and my last name ended in 'a.'

 

[VORP Speed]

 
I'd be excited if I could pitch and my last name ended in 'a.'

 
Just think how Matt Garza feels right now. That last a of his has to be worth about, what, an extra 30-40m than it was yesterday?

 

[Brickowski]

If that's true, get rid of Girardi and keep the future HOF.  Unless they know something about Cano that the rest of us don't (PEDs?), I don't see why they wouldn't have signed him if they were bound to go over the threshold anyhow.  I understand their reluctance to go 10 years ever again, but I don't think that's anymore risky with a guy like Cano than 7 years on a guy who has (for the umpteenth time in this thread) not thrown a single pitch in the majors.

Well that's right. But it isn't Cano vs Girardi or even Cano vs Tanaka. It's what they were willing to pay for Cano.

As for Tanaka, you have to assume the Yankees did their homework and that they have scouts who could correctly evaluate the guy. And so do the Cubs, who were also reportedly willing to pay $150M.

 

[mabrowndog]

There's been a whole lot of "They shoulda done such and such" in this thread. But while I'm greatly enjoying the schadenfreude of where the Yankees find themselves today relative to the luxury tax and their overall team construction, there were some critical uncertainties faced by Cashman and the two spoiled rich kids holding Daddy's money as the Sox' duck boats emerged from the Charles on November 2:
 
1) They had no way of knowing for sure how much, if any, of A-Rod's salary and/or AAV they'd be relieved of with the arbitrator's decision.
2) MLB and the Japanese leagues were still negotiating over a new posting fee system.
3) There was a question of whether Tanaka was even going to be posted this winter.
 
#2 wasn't resolved until December 16 (a full six weeks after the parade) and Rakuten's announcement that they would post Tanaka didn't come until December 24. By the latter date, 70 of the top 100 MLB free agents (as ranked by Hardball Talk) had already signed new contracts or agreed to terms on deals.
 
Of the 30 who were still on the market, 14 were starting pitchers -- and all of them were still unsigned as of noon today since they were waiting on results of the Tanaka bidding. Of the 70 signed players, six left the Yankees (Cano, Granderson, Hughes, Logan, Youkilis, Joba), they re-signed two (Jeter, Kudoda), and acquired six (Ellsbury, McCann, Beltran, Johnson, Roberts, Thornton). That's 14 transactions involving the Yankees, and most of them pretty much HAD to be resolved one way or another before the A-Rod suspension and Tanaka bidding were settled. Why? Because the players and their agents weren't going to wait around for resolutions -- and neither were the other 29 franchises, who are all now swimming in enough TV money of their own and shared MLB revenue ("Thanks, Hal & Hank!!") to be players in the FA market.
 
So regarding the $189M dream, there's really only one way they could have ensured their 2014 AAV would be below the threshold, and that was keeping their maximum committed payroll (+ benefits + bonus contingencies + mid-season acquisitions budget, etc.) below $161.4M until the decision on the A-Rod case came. That way, even if they'd gotten stuck with A-Rod's full contract and $27.5M AAV assessment (regardless of how unlikely that scenario might have been), they'd have been reasonably assured of re-setting their luxury tax rate.
 
Of course, that course of action also flies directly in the face of the "Yankee Way" and all its requisite window dressing and arrogance, whereby failing to pursue and secure the best players money can buy each and every year, regardless of cost or length of commitment, is considered both an abdication of birthright and an affront to "da true fans".

 

[Red PR]

Im in the wish he would have signed somewhere else camp. Im not saying Yanks def back, but a lot closer today than yesterday

 

[strek1]

Will he be able to transition to the American rotation and warmup system easily? Or will he have an adjustment period like Dice K?  Maybe the Japanese system has gotten more Amerianized since Dice came over?

 

[ivanvamp]

2013 Yankees 
C - Stewart
1b - Overbay
2b - Cano
3b - Rodriguez/Nix
SS - Nunez
LF - Wells
CF - Gardner
RF - Ichiro
DH - Hafner
Other notables:  Granderson, Soriano, Reynolds
 
SP - Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte, Hughes, Phelps, Nova
RP - Logan, Betances, Kelley, Chamberlain, Robertson, Rivera
 
2014 Yankees
C - McCann
1b - Teixeira
2b - Roberts
3b - Nunez (Drew?)
SS - Jeter
LF - Gardner
CF - Ellsbury
RF - Beltran
DH - Soriano
Other notables:  Ichiro, K. Johnson
 
SP - Sabathia, Tanaka, Kuroda, probably Garza, Nova
RP - Betances, Kelley, Thornton, Claiborne, Robertson, maybe Rodney/Balfour
 
 
I know they're spending money like crazy, but there's no way that the 2014 roster isn't significantly improved over the 2013 roster.  

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Anyone who thinks this isn't a great signing by the Yankees is smoking dope.
 
And why should the Yankees give a shit about revenue sharing, or even ticket sales, when the real money is in the potential sales value of the club.
 
This is where baseball has a real problem, because 2 teams each in the NYC / LA / Chicago media markets creates a value discrepancy that can only be ruined by greedy or stupid owners, the same way that smaller markets can do the opposite.
 
But, in what world does a well-run WS-Winning Cleveland, Tampa or Phoenix (for example) club ever bring the potential windfall selling price of the restricted major market clubs?
 
I think the Dodgers out Yankee'd the Yankees, but there seems to be no other clubs even in their league. 

 

[StuckOnYouk]

I'll ask a question - is there any chance in our lifetimes that we ever see a hard cap? Will it require a team to hit 300 million?

 

[glennhoffmania]

2013 Yankees 
C - Stewart
1b - Overbay
2b - Cano
3b - Rodriguez/Nix
SS - Nunez
LF - Wells
CF - Gardner
RF - Ichiro
DH - Hafner
Other notables:  Granderson, Soriano, Reynolds
 
SP - Sabathia, Kuroda, Pettitte, Hughes, Phelps, Nova
RP - Logan, Betances, Kelley, Chamberlain, Robertson, Rivera
 
2014 Yankees
C - McCann
1b - Teixeira
2b - Roberts
3b - Nunez (Drew?)
SS - Jeter
LF - Gardner
CF - Ellsbury
RF - Beltran
DH - Soriano
Other notables:  Ichiro, K. Johnson
 
SP - Sabathia, Tanaka, Kuroda, probably Garza, Nova
RP - Betances, Kelley, Thornton, Claiborne, Robertson, maybe Rodney/Balfour
 
 
I know they're spending money like crazy, but there's no way that the 2014 roster isn't significantly improved over the 2013 roster.  

 
Sure, they're better than last year.  Last year they had a pythag of 79 wins.  The question isn't whether they're better.  The question is whether they did enough to become a 95 win team again.  I don't think they did.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Why would a majority of owners support that?  The more big-market teams spend, the more revenue sharing there is for others.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Sure, they're better than last year.  Last year they had a pythag of 79 wins.  The question isn't whether they're better.  The question is whether they did enough to become a 95 win team again.  I don't think they did.

After three years of missing the playoffs, and lots of roster changes, I don't think many people had the Sox pegged at 97 wins. That's why they play the games.

How well the Yankees do with injuries will probably be the key variable impacting their record. They'll still be vulnerable to that, so we'll see how it goes.

Edit: I type slow. What Rudy said.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Sure, they're better than last year.  Last year they had a pythag of 79 wins.  The question isn't whether they're better.  The question is whether they did enough to become a 95 win team again.  I don't think they did.

 
Maybe not yet.  But if they add Drew and Garza and Rodney, then yes, I think they did.  They downgraded at two spots:  closer and 2b.  But their OF of Gardner/Ellsbury/Beltran is significantly better than Wells/Gardner/Ichiro.  McCann is a HUGE upgrade at C.  Their starting rotation should be much better, especially if they add Garza.  I mean, I could see that team winning 95 games for sure.  

 

[amfox1]

I know they're spending money like crazy, but there's no way that the 2014 roster isn't significantly improved over the 2013 roster.  

 
It's improved.  The bullpen is significantly worse, as would any bullpen without Mariano.  The lineup is better at C, 2 OF spots, DH and 1B but is significantly worse at 2B,  Note that every starter will be 30+ when the season begins and, therefore, more susceptible to injury (with little depth).  The rotation is a question mark since there isn't a fifth starter yet, but we are all assuming that Tanaka/5th starter will be an upgrade to Pettitte/Hughes and that CC will bounce back closer to his historical performance.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Cashman said they were on Tanaka ever since March and the A Rod money had nothing to do with their willingness to go over 189. If they had known all along they would spend on Tanaka with all their payroll obligations, why wouldn't they go all out to sign Cano? This offseason of total knee jerk spending because they missed the playoffs. They have no long term plan in place because their minor league system is total shit. You can't sustain long term success without homegrown players and that's why they won't be returning to their success of the late 90s.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
That's fair...but did the Sox do enough to go from a 74 win team by Pythag in '12 to a 95 win team in '13? On paper, probably not...yet they actually increased +26 in Pythag and +28 in real wins. Weird shit can happen. 
 
Will be interesting to see what the projections look like for the Yankees.

 
There was a huge X factor.  Bobby's departure was worth about 10 wins. 
 
But on a more serious note, sure it could happen.  We know what happened last year.  I wouldn't predict it happens again this year with NY.  There are so many unknowns on this team.  If everything falls into place it absolutely could happen, but there are a lot of ifs.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I wouldn't predict it happens again this year with NY.  There are so many unknowns on this team.  If everything falls into place it absolutely could happen, but there are a lot of ifs.

That's fair. I wouldn't predict that it happens again with Boston this year either

Seriously though, so much of the success and failure of the Yankees and Sox over the years has depended on player health. Those dice have yet to roll, so many things still seem possible.

Yankees are way more vulnerable to injuries though. That's for sure.

 

[nattysez]

If they had known all along they would spend on Tanaka with all their payroll obligations, why wouldn't they go all out to sign Cano? 

 
I honestly think the MFY considered Cano's final deal so fiscally irresponsible that they would never have matched it.  

 

[glennhoffmania]

That's fair. I wouldn't predict that it happens again with Boston this year either

Seriously though, so much of the success and failure of the Yankees and Sox over the years has depended on player health. Those dice have yet to roll, so many things still seem possible.

Yankees are way more vulnerable to injuries though. That's for sure.

 
I agree that Boston won't improve by another 28 wins this year. 

 

[EvilEmpire]

I agree that Boston won't improve by another 28 wins this year.

Friendly wager for charity? I'd put $50 on the Sox having less than 97 wins next season.

 

[rembrat]

Wild speculation on Cano? They know he is on steroids and didn't want to travel down that road again. Well, they would have for $175MM  but not for the final tally.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Wild speculation on Cano? They know he is on steroids and didn't want to travel down that road again. Well, they would have for $175MM  but not for the final tally.

I doubt they would have offered the $175m if they knew he was on steroids, unless they knew for certain he wouldn't take it. But I wouldn't be surprised if there was some concern.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Friendly wager for charity? I'd put $50 on the Sox having less than 97 wins next season.

 
There are very few times I'd bet the over if the number is 97.  But I was kidding, since another 28 win improvement would put them at 125 wins this year.