Shohei Ohtani is an LA Dodger: 10 years/$700 million
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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The one that gets Walker Buehler back next season, followed by Dustin May, and then Shohei Ohtani in 2025, in addition to whatever moves they make? I think they'll be fine. Might have to get a little creative next season if they want to win 100 games again instead of just 95.
From what, 25M? Relative pennies... is MLB about to approve this deal if it brings down Ohtani's CBT significantly? Feels like a competitive no-no to me.
The Dodgers, Mets and Padres have a combined 1 World Series championship over the last 30 years.
The Yankees haven‘t even won a pennant in 14 years. Big contracts have not prevented mid and small market teams from competing and winning.
The Yankees haven‘t even won a pennant in 14 years. Big contracts have not prevented mid and small market teams from competing and winning.
All of those guys are coming back from major surgery, so let's see them do it first. Anyway, you asked for a reason, that's a reason.
Well... since 2013 they've lost three NLCS and two World Series, neither of which is a crappy playoff performance. But yeah, they're basically the old 90s Braves - always really good but kind of underwhelming for all that.
Yeah none of this makes sense. The Bonilla stuff was just for cash flow purposes as far as I thought...if everyone can just push more money into the future and save the team money that would change the way baseball contracts are done overnight.
Maybe the Dodgers, Yankees, Braves or someone else will be willing to take Sale now at his ridiculously low AAV. Most people on this board aren't expecting north of 10-15 starts from him anyhow.
You're absolutely right. I will cherish those regular season championship banners over those crapshoot WS trophies forever.
Yes, but haven't you heard? Championships don't matter ... it's W-L records that count
Why? Ohtani still gets all the money he is due and the Dodgers still have to pay full boat on the tax for what the contract is actually worth.
They aren't getting out of anything, it's just that the contract isn't actually worth 700M. Ohtani is the one who chose that structure vs another one with a smaller number and fewer deferrals.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-are-teams-issuing-extremely-long-contracts/
Good article re long contracts and the impact of current interest rates.
Yeah, deferrals would be dumb for teams. If this $700 million has big deferrals, there is presumably a much lower number Ohtani would have taken without deferrals, and it would have been in the Dodgers’ interest to avoid the extra CBT. I guess income tax for deferred comp might matter to players, but I don’t know how that works.
Well at least the randomness of the playoffs, and the incredible weight everyone puts on it vs the regular season, gives everyone else hope.
That said dynasties are fun and good for the game and the dodgers have my two favorite players now. I hope this works out for them.
That said dynasties are fun and good for the game and the dodgers have my two favorite players now. I hope this works out for them.
Well here's hoping for the best W-L record for the next 10 years with none of those foolish World Series trophies.
Agree to disagree, particularly in baseball ... where the season can be incredibly long for fans who know their teams don't stand a chance
Dave Roberts has the hottest seat in professional sports now I’d imagine. If they struggle out of the gate into summer …
$660m
Although I guess the purchase included NESN.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/news/2002/0227/
The craziest thing is that purchase was over twice as much as any other franchise at the time. Previous record was Cleveland for $323m. Which is basically Jaylen Brown money ($304m).
Agreed.
Thats why SportRac and many other articles I have seen use the "true value" of the contract as the numerator for CBT. 306M for Mookie etc. That's the only reason the deferrals make any sense aside from cash flow issues.
Not sure why Cots doesn't do it like that or why there is confusion on that front. But I definitely assumed the deferrals were done in part for CBT reasons, rather than being a negative.
Also, if this is how every contract's CBT value is calculated, why are the multiyear year deals with no deferrals not having their real value adjusted?
I smell a loophole.
I smell a loophole.
What about the yearly amount. If Messi got $647 for five years, that is way crazier than this deal.
I said they would be the best team in baseball for the next 10 years, not the team with the most championships. And they will be, even if they never win the World Series in that span.
No, but I think the Jays pushed the Dodgers there, and the Dodgers weren't going to be beaten on a top target again like they were with Gerrit Cole.
Because the entire length of the contract isn't paid on day 1? That's not a loophole.
Yes, I understand how PV works. Let me ask you this. If the deal is 700/10 with no deferrals and he gets 70m per year what's his CBT hit?
If you’re a Dodgers fan, how many WS wins do you need to see to make this a good contract? Is one enough?
Yes, Messi's yearly amount was higher. Highest annual salaries I am aware of are soccer players Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, each currently being paid 200 million Euros (about $215M!) per year to play in Saudi Arabia.
So Ohtani has shattered the record for highest MLB annual salary but there is still a ways to go before matching those crazy things. Maybe when the state of Qatar buys the White Sox.
I'm sorry, I got it wrong: Sale's deal is only $25m in AAV but $29m in actual dollars, because of the deferrals.
So the deferrals drop the AAV by ~15%.
Personally I no longer take the baseball postseason seriously (of course I still want my team to win), so I'm just thrilled to have Ohtani.
Good thread on the math. The CBT calls for 5% deprecation of value on every deferred year.
Making some assumptions, if 400M of the contract is evenly deferred for 40 years after the end of the deal, the CBT hit comes down to ~61M - not as crazy as I thought.
View: https://twitter.com/jonbecker_/status/1733603663019377103
Making some assumptions, if 400M of the contract is evenly deferred for 40 years after the end of the deal, the CBT hit comes down to ~61M - not as crazy as I thought.
View: https://twitter.com/jonbecker_/status/1733603663019377103
70 million per year for 10 years. I'll take me a while to let that sink in.
I wonder what and how close the runner up bid was.
I wonder what and how close the runner up bid was.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Jays even bid higher than that, it will probably come out soon.
You can choose to value whatever you want as a fan. But if you're trying to judge the actual quality of a baseball club and the people running it, World Series championships are not what you should be looking at.
If he's right then it makes a lot of sense and resolves the CBT question.
This is a very different issue than the benefit of long term deals in a high interest rate environment. Some people seem to be conflating the two.
Also to answer my prior rhetorical question... teams are guaranteeing that actual amount IN THAT season in the non-deferred parts of multiyear deals, that's why there's no adjustment to calculations.
My guess is Dodgers were around 500-550, Jays made a real run and said 600 this week, Dodgesr ownership gave the OK to not lose the player from there. Just a guess as the whole Toronto storyline may have been overblown from day one.
Personally I'm waiting for the Blue Jays press release saying that they offered more, but Ohtani took less to stay in L.A.
Yeah, based on AAV, I have this as 5th most there, from what I can find from team sports and auto racing. Unconfirmed but what I found of higher thus far? In USD: Ronaldo $214M with Al-Nassr, Benzema $214M with Al-Ittihad, Messi's aforementioned deal with Barca for $168.5M (it was four years, not five), and boxer Canelo Alvarez's deal with DAZN for $73M per annum.
This deal will also push Manny's 8/160 deal out of the top 100 all-time in total monies.
Trust me. If the dodgers do not win a WS with Ohtani and the current roster they have in the next 10 years, LA fans will uh. Not be happy. This is coming from someone who lives in LA and has seen how the fans reacted after they (the best regular season team in baseball) got booted from the playoffs without much fanfare
I think the "goodness" or "worth" of the contract depends on a lot of factors outside it. If LA gets to the post-season in 6-7 of the next 10 years with Ohtani as a major contributor, that's probably enough to justify it. If Ohtani is injured or underperforms, or the contract hamstrings LA in some way, then it becomes a bad contract.
I am aware of this, and it's completely irrelevant to my point that the Dodgers will still be the best team in baseball for the next 10 years, despite paying the dreaded, heretofore thought-to-be team-destroying CBT.
And if you're stance is "no team should spend this much money because the World Series is a crapshoot," (I'm not saying it is, but it's clearly the underlying premise a lot of people hold), then you might want to wonder why MLB has created the system it has, and what we should actually value as baseball fans.