Way too late but added more Mavs +1.5 once AD picked up his 2nd. If this begins to get ugly I'm assuming Lakers pull everyone super early tonight so laying some is still in play throughout 1H.
Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
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Still only 1.5 after 1Q up 8. I'd add here if I hadn't already. Prepared to click if/When AD picks up 3rd.
Bucks/Pacers Total quickly bet up to 259 on the overnight. This shits getting ridiculous now. How can't I get sucked in here?
Who doesn’t love a nice 30 second dribble out instead of Tatum tackle and 12 more points from foul fest (still angry about the Inseason tournament ending!)
Chicken
Freakin
Dinner!!
When a Laker/Spurs number comes out later tonight if you can grab Spurs at +5 or better jump the hell on it!
@HomeRunBaker and @Red Averages you guys are money as usual! Was minding my own business at the United Lounge waiting for a flight watching DeSantis on the TV when I opened the board.
Cashed Mavs ML, Mavs -1.5, and Cavs U118.5. Great unintentional night after I had decided to sit out the evening because of travel.
Flying to Boston tonight, taking my team to the Encore tomorrow for a Christmas party, so looking forward to losing it all in person.
Cashed Mavs ML, Mavs -1.5, and Cavs U118.5. Great unintentional night after I had decided to sit out the evening because of travel.
Flying to Boston tonight, taking my team to the Encore tomorrow for a Christmas party, so looking forward to losing it all in person.
They are too sharp. This is such a weird spot. The Spurs have lost 76 in row so what are they if LeBron and AD are out....-3.5?
Once mine hit tonight I'll play some for expected CLV leverage but even if they do go I like the Spurs side.
Just saw that you got 26-26 shooting from the line out of the Celtics. Yowza!
Yeah, and almost as impressive was the team…actually… tried…to get to the line due to being in the bonus. It’s taken a few years of experience but *finallly* they use their advantage instead of being in the bonus with 7 min left and holding the ball to take a contested 3 with a few seconds left. Instead they gave it to Porzingas to let him create a situation where he’d get fouled. Amazing.
The better numbers got hit overnight as expected. Seeing Lakers down to 2.5 and 2 where posted. Got +4 on Hard Rock Bet, the Seminole Tribe's legal (for now) monopoly on Florida sports bettors. Simple process, one click deposit, wager size accepted, click second deposit to see if they will take more without moving number, wager size accepted. Let's see how long this lasts.
Waiting on Clippers/Warriors number to come out this afternoon. I'll most likely be on Clippers good here to continue what they have been building winning 10 of their last 13. Warriors, as I've been repeating, have been overvalued all season. Klay is complete garbage this year which falls in line with my "older veteran the year following a successful ACL return" decline. Wiggins hs been terrible and both were benched to start the 2H last night as Kerr went with Moody and Podziemski down the stretch as well. Now they will be without their 2nd most important player in Draymond while going on the road against a better team, deeper team and more connected team. The number probably won't be more than 5 while I have it for the Clippers at 9. Game has ugly potential too so looking to sprinkle some winning margin wagers on 17-20 and 21+ (yours may vary).
AD out here limping around after rolling his ankle. Can’t imagine he keeps playing. Prob better if he keeps playing though given he’s barely moving.
I’m adding to the Spurs 1st quarter, 1st half and game.
I’m adding to the Spurs 1st quarter, 1st half and game.
An actual NBA team would be up by 10 with AD barely moving on D. Effectively a 4 on 5 situation. Yet the Spurs are getting creative to find ways to miss wide open looks over and over again with some of the worst turnovers you could imagine. Impressive.
34% FGs with 5 turnovers with 15 min into this game. Like I said, impressive.
34% FGs with 5 turnovers with 15 min into this game. Like I said, impressive.
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Hachimura looks like he did an Enrico Palazzo because Prime LeBron is out there wearing his jersey. AD is soooo motivated this year....he's out there dominating a game he used to sleepwalk through in years past. Kudos to Darvin Ham and the Lakers....they showed up today and treated this game importantly.
Grabbed this live at +6.5 when it was something like 13-8. Spurs sending this to OT and then losing by 7 would be something.
You will surely see the non-call of the Lakers over and back violation on the 2-minute report. Just brutal.
Had it the whole way…
back door cover bails out most of my first half and first quarter tire fire.
Indy vs Bucks had some great in game under opportunities as well…
back door cover bails out most of my first half and first quarter tire fire.
Indy vs Bucks had some great in game under opportunities as well…
Got most of what I wanted at Clippers -5 but had to settle for 5.5 on some which is annoying bc those sites should have moved but didn't. Grrrr.
Looking ahead we are really wanting a Celtics win which can set up another smash spot on Orlando plus points tomorrow.
- Added some Clippers ML (-130) preflop on the George news. I'd have happily traded George for those points had it been announced earlier but it is what it is.
- Why do I want to play the Spurs and Pistons tomorrow? These numbers may force me to do just that. Fun times.
- I expect Orlando to be +6 or +7 and there is only one side to play here so taking the points anything above +5 which it surely will be at least on open. It isn't as much the scheduling spot as it is the matchup so it's close to a smash but not a full blown one....kinda similar to Clippers tonight without Draymond in the lineup for Warriors. The two teams meet again on Sunday afternoon also in Boston.
- Why do I want to play the Spurs and Pistons tomorrow? These numbers may force me to do just that. Fun times.
- I expect Orlando to be +6 or +7 and there is only one side to play here so taking the points anything above +5 which it surely will be at least on open. It isn't as much the scheduling spot as it is the matchup so it's close to a smash but not a full blown one....kinda similar to Clippers tonight without Draymond in the lineup for Warriors. The two teams meet again on Sunday afternoon also in Boston.
Thank you. I know people don’t always respond, but we’re always following and learning. The explanations are just as important, arguably more so as you saw with the “pretend to be HRB” scenarios last year. 
Harden 28/15/7/4 with several big defensive plays down the stretch. This is precisely why I would have swapped George in favor of those extra points every time. Coffey shook off the rust to play the Banton role better than he could have ever imagined. Clippers have now won 11 of 14 and hitting full stride. After hosting the Knicks on Saturday they face a brutal 4-game stretch with 3 on the road in Indiana, Dallas and Oklahoma City only to get home and have the Celtics waiting for them. I really like them against the Pacers as this is a great matchup for them to control pace and be able to score at the rim at will.
Warriors hung around late thanks to Klay going nuclear but never felt like they were a threat to get over the hump with LA getting pretty much what they wanted when they wanted it. I've said this last time Draymond missed some games and it bears repeating.....aside for the occasional Klay-game, Draymond is still the 2nd most important player on this team and if he's out for an extended period the Warriors won't ever be making the play-in game. Having Chris Paul replaces some of his playmaking this year but defensively they just have no identity and we saw LA attack without any resistance all night. I'll be continuing looking to fade Golden State in non-Draymond games as I've done successfully for a couple years now until the numbers adjust.
Warriors hung around late thanks to Klay going nuclear but never felt like they were a threat to get over the hump with LA getting pretty much what they wanted when they wanted it. I've said this last time Draymond missed some games and it bears repeating.....aside for the occasional Klay-game, Draymond is still the 2nd most important player on this team and if he's out for an extended period the Warriors won't ever be making the play-in game. Having Chris Paul replaces some of his playmaking this year but defensively they just have no identity and we saw LA attack without any resistance all night. I'll be continuing looking to fade Golden State in non-Draymond games as I've done successfully for a couple years now until the numbers adjust.
How do you feel about the Celtics TTU 114.5 tonight? C’s seem to struggle to get to 100 against this team.
Meh wouldn't touch as I feel there will be points scored tonight. Magic come in rested and Celtics are home.....dangerous recipe for Unders with this team imo. I so like Magic TT Overs however.
Magic seem to have a weird schedule and last played on Monday. Is that enough time for them to get a little rusty? I hope so, I'll be in the building tonight and want to see some fight.
Hope you guys got in at the 6. Mostly 4.5 now and these are beginning to get taken out too. I found some +162 ML too which is off market so check your books for that.
Looking ahead to Sunday where we have the C's and Magic playing each other again...it's a 3PM game so normally we'd all be on the under. Does the fact that it's a repeat of tonight's matchup give you any pause?
I really need to dig into these numbers now that the sample for these play it back games is on the way to becoming significant. Maybe I'll be lazy and plead to @Brand Name to run numbers. My guess would be a slight edge to the Under for second game similar to that of early in a playoff series.
I did also come back with Spurs tonight. Number makes no sense. Passed on Pistons as the number isn't wrong but feel Detroit will stay inside it.
Placed healthy wager on Clippers -5.5 over the Knicks coming off big win in Phoenix tonight. Market still not caught up on LA so taking advantage of this while we can.
Missed this but great call HRB. Kawhi with a solid night. 12/16 from the field, 5/6 from 3 and 7/7 from the line.
Sorry just seeing this. Early tip big Under edge, backend leg slight Under edge....Under never in doubt. NBA situational spots remain gold.
No worries . Happily hit. Thanks for following up.
You’re slowly teaching all to fish.
Let's take a look at the Celtics holiday road trip. Lots of factors going on here. Veteran team, most with families, not going to be home until after Christmas. Plenty of human emotions in place here but what would ordinarily be a focused California swing to look forward to attacking instead becomes a trip, especially those middle games, where playing basketball isn't likely to be the only thing on their mind...playing against home teams with distractions at home. This only adds to the normal volatility but I still think I've got a great read on this Celtics team. I've spoken in the past about how teams with solid leadership tend to approach these long trips in wanting to get off to a good start with a focused, motivated and team effort in the first game prior to facing other obstacles later on in the trip.
12/19 @ Golden St
12/20 @Sacramento
12/23 @ Clippers
12/25 @Lakers
Warriors - This years version has been grinding yet still overvalued in the market. They have played 13 consecutive single digit games and the last 18 of 19 have been within 3 possessions. They snuck past Brooklyn on a classic Curry game then got the long overdue Klay/Wiggins bounce back game to hang on against Portland. This team minus Draymond is a play-in team in the WC at best and a lottery team at worst. Good spot for the C's to be catching them despite the threat of Nuclear Steph arriving following his worst game of the year for him. At time of post I haven't seen any NBA posted yet for Tuesday but I'd expect Boston to be -4 which is slightly shy of my number of 6.5 so I lean Boston here for a small/moderate play at that number.
Kings - They are a team who are matchup reliant. They got hammered on B2B's in two losses in Houston by 18 & 25, to Clippers by 14 & 20 both post-Harden trade, and are 0-3 vs a real good Pelicans team by a total of 51.....otherwise they are 15-2! Fox is banged up with a shoulder missing some games but the market seems to expect him to play tonight but either way I'd expect him to be a go for Wednesday. They catch the Celtics on the second game of a B2B following what I'd call the Warriors a circle game (between being Curry and the first game of trip). I would play Sacramento at +3 or more.
Clippers - You know how I've rated this team even when they were in the midst of losing 6 straight following the Harden trade. They have been my best read of the season as I was high on them as others looking at box scores, or not understanding what they were watching, were writing them off. That's the ultimate market edge. They have won 7 in a row and 12 of 15 since losing that 6th in a row in Denver, have phenomenal chemistry that was recognized while losing games early, and a deep and talented group. Am I bragging a little bit much here? F year I am bc reads like this are what we play for and I'm proud as hell for it. No apologies will be given.
One thing that "haters" don't understand is that flip-flopping is a crucial element in handicapping and knowing what to change ratings on a team so sure, I may take my foot off the Clippers gas later in the year, next month, or next week....but until something changes this team is an absolute train. NOW, having said all that they begin a challenging 3-game trip prior to Celtics game playing @Indiana tonight, then a B2B in Dallas and OKC. An 0-3 would not surprise me but I feel a 1-2 trip is the most likely result with 2-1 being similar to 0-3 (3-0 would be like, ridiculous)....this is a short but brutal trip initially traveling East which is the worst direction to be traveling for playing games, following by the tough B2B. All else being equal i like the Clippers here vs Boston but will see how things shape up for both teams leading up to this game.
Lakers - Christmas Day. Haven't put much thought into this game except that it should be a real banger! Looking forward to watching this as a fan.
12/19 @ Golden St
12/20 @Sacramento
12/23 @ Clippers
12/25 @Lakers
Warriors - This years version has been grinding yet still overvalued in the market. They have played 13 consecutive single digit games and the last 18 of 19 have been within 3 possessions. They snuck past Brooklyn on a classic Curry game then got the long overdue Klay/Wiggins bounce back game to hang on against Portland. This team minus Draymond is a play-in team in the WC at best and a lottery team at worst. Good spot for the C's to be catching them despite the threat of Nuclear Steph arriving following his worst game of the year for him. At time of post I haven't seen any NBA posted yet for Tuesday but I'd expect Boston to be -4 which is slightly shy of my number of 6.5 so I lean Boston here for a small/moderate play at that number.
Kings - They are a team who are matchup reliant. They got hammered on B2B's in two losses in Houston by 18 & 25, to Clippers by 14 & 20 both post-Harden trade, and are 0-3 vs a real good Pelicans team by a total of 51.....otherwise they are 15-2! Fox is banged up with a shoulder missing some games but the market seems to expect him to play tonight but either way I'd expect him to be a go for Wednesday. They catch the Celtics on the second game of a B2B following what I'd call the Warriors a circle game (between being Curry and the first game of trip). I would play Sacramento at +3 or more.
Clippers - You know how I've rated this team even when they were in the midst of losing 6 straight following the Harden trade. They have been my best read of the season as I was high on them as others looking at box scores, or not understanding what they were watching, were writing them off. That's the ultimate market edge. They have won 7 in a row and 12 of 15 since losing that 6th in a row in Denver, have phenomenal chemistry that was recognized while losing games early, and a deep and talented group. Am I bragging a little bit much here? F year I am bc reads like this are what we play for and I'm proud as hell for it. No apologies will be given.
One thing that "haters" don't understand is that flip-flopping is a crucial element in handicapping and knowing what to change ratings on a team so sure, I may take my foot off the Clippers gas later in the year, next month, or next week....but until something changes this team is an absolute train. NOW, having said all that they begin a challenging 3-game trip prior to Celtics game playing @Indiana tonight, then a B2B in Dallas and OKC. An 0-3 would not surprise me but I feel a 1-2 trip is the most likely result with 2-1 being similar to 0-3 (3-0 would be like, ridiculous)....this is a short but brutal trip initially traveling East which is the worst direction to be traveling for playing games, following by the tough B2B. All else being equal i like the Clippers here vs Boston but will see how things shape up for both teams leading up to this game.
Lakers - Christmas Day. Haven't put much thought into this game except that it should be a real banger! Looking forward to watching this as a fan.
We are seeing some historical line movement today. Pacers/Clips Total was 241 this morning and without any unexpected injury news has been gradually bet up to 253.5!
@HomeRunBaker I wanted to say thank you for the twitter follows you threw out a little while ago. Haslametrics has been a huge tool in evaluating NCAA lines and searching for gaps. There are some big deviations from his numbers and opening lines.
For example he had Marist pegged as -16 tonight. The opening line was -9. Marist won by 24. Night before it was Auburn he had -14 and the opening line was -8.5. Auburn wins by 16.
I’ve been hunting these deviations to good success the last week or so.
For example he had Marist pegged as -16 tonight. The opening line was -9. Marist won by 24. Night before it was Auburn he had -14 and the opening line was -8.5. Auburn wins by 16.
I’ve been hunting these deviations to good success the last week or so.
If anyone is interested in following along today:
I’m on:
Cornell -13 vs Hasla @ -24.5
Siena O/U 67.5 vs Hasla @ 61.5 (note Siena has only scored over 60 twice all season)
Southern Illinois -8.5 vs Hasla @ -15.5
I've been on 4 of these covers but I'm a little upset that I haven't taken full advantage of my anticipated Pacer/Laker letdown off of that emotional Vegas weekend. Lakers are 1-3 since Vegas, Pacers 1-4.
If the Lakers don't win in Chicago tomorrow night they could be facing a 1-6 stretch hesding into our Christmas Day game. Indiana has an easier schedule to end of year but they really aren't a very good team.
If the Lakers don't win in Chicago tomorrow night they could be facing a 1-6 stretch hesding into our Christmas Day game. Indiana has an easier schedule to end of year but they really aren't a very good team.