I agree with this. Quarterback play matters in the NFL. Mac may not be great - Wilson isn't just bad - he's horrible.
State of the AFC East
- Thread starter BaseballJones
- Start date
Bills aren't as bad as they looked last night. Miami was easily the biggest beneficiary of last night's proceedings.
Assuming a Tua injury seems like a weird way to handicap. I see Miami as an 11 win team pretty easily, and the clear front runners, but Buffalo is going to have a say. The other two teams are in a tier below to me.
Assuming a Tua injury seems like a weird way to handicap. I see Miami as an 11 win team pretty easily, and the clear front runners, but Buffalo is going to have a say. The other two teams are in a tier below to me.
Some notes: Allen plays terribly against the Bills. His worst 3 games the last 2 years have all been against the Jets.
The Chargers can’t play defense. You don’t play Hill in man with no help over the top. Chargers did that a lot. Their offense is hard to stop but you can’t be giving them easy 7s.
The Chargers can’t play defense. You don’t play Hill in man with no help over the top. Chargers did that a lot. Their offense is hard to stop but you can’t be giving them easy 7s.
Look at Hill's route tree yesterday:
I am telling you they run so many of the same plays and concepts. On Sunday it was: we have the horses to beat you doing what we want to over and over again and you can't stop us.
I don't think it works vs the Patriots and I think the Fins change things up too.
I am telling you they run so many of the same plays and concepts. On Sunday it was: we have the horses to beat you doing what we want to over and over again and you can't stop us.
I don't think it works vs the Patriots and I think the Fins change things up too.
The Bills are going to run out of luck at some point with all of running Josh Allen does. He absolutely makes big play but he has a little too much macho and puts himself in harms way by not sliding or making better business decisions.
I think the big equalizer in the division (and NFL) are injuries. Franchise QB goes down and where are the Bills?
I think the big equalizer in the division (and NFL) are injuries. Franchise QB goes down and where are the Bills?
I think we've seen enough of McDaniel to say that he's going to find your weak spot and spam it until you stop it. Against the chargers it was finding ways to get Hill on Jackson. Some really good motion stuff.
And get stops in the red zone. Seems inevitable that they will give up quite a few completions/yards.
I expect that the Pats will double Hill with JonJones and a safety. Then Gonzo Island against Waddle.
Yeah have to live with underneath stuff. Just don’t give up a 10 yard completion that goes for 60. Got to get after Tua with 4
That's definitely the question with him, but it seems unlikely to matter this year, when he's just 27 and in year 6. It seems extremely unlikely that he'll be able to play like this past his early 30s (and QBs nowadays are expected to perform at a top level for at least 5-6 years beyond that), but sadly for the rest of the division, that's still a few years away. The only way it impacts his performance this year is if he decides to try to be more of a pocket passer, or at least a mobile QB that doesn't try to go through everyone. If he plays to protect his career longterm, his performance now will be surely decline.
I’m not sure that’s true.. I’m not talking about the plays where he plows into players to run it for a few extra yards in the middle of the field.. I’m talking about when he fakes going out of bounds and then tries to extend the play a few yards.. staying inbounds and taking two or three extra shots from LBs trailing the play. The announcer even commented on it.. wondering why he wasn’t going down or going out.. there’s very little upside… and in the position he puts himself in those situations he’s going to take a shot that breaks something.. even at a young age.
Yeah Troy Aikman was killing Allen pretty hard last night for that totally ill-advised headfirst dive into two Jets tacklers when he had zero chance of getting a first down. And the criticism was well deserved.
He needs to take care himself better than that.
As for this thread…Buffalo will be a lot better than they showed last night. Josh Allen had a horrible game but his track record is too good to expect a hapless offensive performance most weeks. Their defense is solid too….maybe not quite as good as Jets/Patriots but still an asset instead of a liability.
I’d rank the Patriots over the Rodger-less Jets from a purely objective standpoint going forward though if we’re predicting final standings, the Jets one game lead may matter.
You thinking man-match quarters w/ Sky over the top? Obviously as part of a rotation.
I was interested in seeing what Bill would do to the Eagles and he basically clowned them. Will be interesting to see what he does to Mike McD. Who breaks down hoodie the best on youtube? I would like to see an all22 on how they stifled the Pigeons.
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The Bills had an absolutely stellar season last year (three losses by 3 points) and Miami never was better. Then a Bills player died.
Miami beat them straight up then were in the process of beating the Bengals their QB got multiple concussions and their season tanked playing terrible QBs, they lost by 3 in a playoff game in Buffalo while starting Skylar Thompson... there was definitely a case they were the best AFC East team with a healthy QB.
Dolphins 2-0; PD of 9
Bills 1-1; PD 22
Jets 1-1; PD -14
Patriots 0-2; PD -12
Miami at 2-0. Point differential of only 9 but both games on the road. Have to give them a slight edge over Buff
Buffalo bounced back after week 1 loss dominating the Raiders. Miami @ Buffalo in week 4 will be one to watch.
Jets. Wilson with 3 INTs; 12/27. I'll leave them over the Pats based on their win last week but that could change soon. Lot of talent if they can somehow find competent QB play.
Patriots. Two close losses at home. Two replay reviews ending their chances to come back. @JETS next week to decide #3 in division. woo-hoo
Bills 1-1; PD 22
Jets 1-1; PD -14
Patriots 0-2; PD -12
Miami at 2-0. Point differential of only 9 but both games on the road. Have to give them a slight edge over Buff
Buffalo bounced back after week 1 loss dominating the Raiders. Miami @ Buffalo in week 4 will be one to watch.
Jets. Wilson with 3 INTs; 12/27. I'll leave them over the Pats based on their win last week but that could change soon. Lot of talent if they can somehow find competent QB play.
Patriots. Two close losses at home. Two replay reviews ending their chances to come back. @JETS next week to decide #3 in division. woo-hoo
I think it's safe to say that there won't be ANY easy games on the Pats' schedule this year, not with how this team performs. BUT....the schedule does get a little easier.
at NYJ - without Rodgers, this is very much a winnable game
at Dal - gonna have to play well just to not get curb stomped in that one
vs NO - real chance to win that one
at LV - real chance to win that one
At this point they COULD be 3-3.
vs Buf - probably will get beaten badly
at Mia - never play well there
vs Was - real chance to win that one
vs Ind - real chance to win that one
At this point they could be 5-5.
at NYG - real chance to win that one
vs LAC - they always do well at home vs the Chargers
At this point they have a legit shot at being 7-5.
at Pit - I'm never really afraid of the Steelers; legit shot at this game
vs KC - they'll get killed
at Den - winnable game
at Buf - they'll get killed
vs NYJ - very winnable game
Legit shot at winning 3 of their last 5. That would make them 10-7. But they have to win all those "they have a realistic chance to win this one" and not have any slip ups. But we know they're going to have slip ups. And the problem isn't just that; it's that they never seem to be able to pull off the surprise win against a better team. Usually close, but no cigar.
at NYJ - without Rodgers, this is very much a winnable game
at Dal - gonna have to play well just to not get curb stomped in that one
vs NO - real chance to win that one
at LV - real chance to win that one
At this point they COULD be 3-3.
vs Buf - probably will get beaten badly
at Mia - never play well there
vs Was - real chance to win that one
vs Ind - real chance to win that one
At this point they could be 5-5.
at NYG - real chance to win that one
vs LAC - they always do well at home vs the Chargers
At this point they have a legit shot at being 7-5.
at Pit - I'm never really afraid of the Steelers; legit shot at this game
vs KC - they'll get killed
at Den - winnable game
at Buf - they'll get killed
vs NYJ - very winnable game
Legit shot at winning 3 of their last 5. That would make them 10-7. But they have to win all those "they have a realistic chance to win this one" and not have any slip ups. But we know they're going to have slip ups. And the problem isn't just that; it's that they never seem to be able to pull off the surprise win against a better team. Usually close, but no cigar.
Standings
Mia 3-0 - next week at Buf
Buf 2-1 - next week vs Mia
NE 1-2 - next week at Dal
NYJ 1-2 - next week vs KC
Miami's offense looks unstoppable, but you know how that goes - teams do that and then injuries happen and teams figure some things out. I expect that as long as Hill and Tua are healthy, their offense will be good but obviously 70 today was a total outlier. But they have to be at the top right now, both because they have the best record and because they are just piling up yards and points.
Buffalo has bounced back quite nicely from their first loss to the Jets. Their D has been ridiculously good and their offense has put up 38 and 37 points their last two games. Next week's tilt against Miami is must-see TV.
New England has played in two close games and lost them both, but this time they won a close game, on the road. Mac finished with 201 yards (6.9 y/a) with a touchdown and zero turnovers against an elite defense. That's not bad. The defense has been awesome this year so far.
New York has a lot of talent but man, Zach Wilson will just kill them. They made the right move trading for Rodgers but, well, too bad.
By point differential...
Miami is the #1 first place team.
Buffalo is the #1 second place team.
New England is the #3 third place team.
New York is the #4 fourth place team.
Mia 3-0 - next week at Buf
Buf 2-1 - next week vs Mia
NE 1-2 - next week at Dal
NYJ 1-2 - next week vs KC
Miami's offense looks unstoppable, but you know how that goes - teams do that and then injuries happen and teams figure some things out. I expect that as long as Hill and Tua are healthy, their offense will be good but obviously 70 today was a total outlier. But they have to be at the top right now, both because they have the best record and because they are just piling up yards and points.
Buffalo has bounced back quite nicely from their first loss to the Jets. Their D has been ridiculously good and their offense has put up 38 and 37 points their last two games. Next week's tilt against Miami is must-see TV.
New England has played in two close games and lost them both, but this time they won a close game, on the road. Mac finished with 201 yards (6.9 y/a) with a touchdown and zero turnovers against an elite defense. That's not bad. The defense has been awesome this year so far.
New York has a lot of talent but man, Zach Wilson will just kill them. They made the right move trading for Rodgers but, well, too bad.
By point differential...
Miami is the #1 first place team.
Buffalo is the #1 second place team.
New England is the #3 third place team.
New York is the #4 fourth place team.
What I know is that this sure isn’t the best division in football, like we may have thought a month ago.
Miami and Buffalo will Duke it out for the division title. Other one will make the playoffs. I don’t see either the Pats or Jets being playoff contenders.
Miami and Buffalo will Duke it out for the division title. Other one will make the playoffs. I don’t see either the Pats or Jets being playoff contenders.
I don't know. Both Miami and Buffalo look like elite teams. And the Pats have played Miami and Philly tough and are clearly one of the best third place teams in the league so far.
Today showed me that the Pats are at best a 7-8 win team again. Very good D, not good enough O. Gonna grind out some wins, gonna lose some close ones.
We shall see. But they're one of the best 3rd place teams in the NFL. When you have the #1 first place team, the #1 second place team, and one of the best third place teams, you've got a pretty good division.
Already done that twice this season, but at least it was against two very good teams.
I mean who knows if they’re a good 3rd place team. They beat the corpse of the Jets by 5. I’m glad they won, but it’s basically the same result as week 11 last year.
I try to be optimistic but I see the same outcome as last year. The O looks better but isn’t producing much.
Tua is one bad hit away from becoming a pension collector. The way that Josh Allen seeks contact, he's likely to run into Mo Lewis pretty soon.
If both those things happen, then the Patriots have a good chance of having a top 3 QB in the division.
If both those things happen, then the Patriots have a good chance of having a top 3 QB in the division.
I kind of agree with you because there is no great top to bottom division at this point. Sort of a “if not us then who” maybe NFC East?
I know man, I watch the NFL every week.
The transitive property isn’t a thing. Josh Allen imploded and the Jets won despite their offensive incompetence.
The Jets D got thumped pretty good last week by the Cowboys (who look lousy against the Cardinals as we speak).
It’s a long, weird season every year.
I hope the Pats win 10 and we make the wild card. I just don’t see it right now.
You spend so much time making comparisons like this. You understand this is not the way the NFL works? Most of the teams are bunched up in the middle of the league, and most of the 2nd tier teams play and lose close games to the top tier teams week after week. There aren’t many blowouts. Losing close games to Philly and the Dolphins (both at home) isn’t really all that impressive.
Through three weeks the Pats have done nothing to show me that they are better than last year. Their D looks awesome, but even the best defenses can’t consistency shut down the best offenses. And the Pats offense stinks. Maybe they’ll improve, I hope they will, but through three games the Pats look exactly like who we thought they were. A team with a very good, maybe even great defense and a very limited, mistake prone offensive unit. That’s pretty much all we know right now.
I really don't spend that much time doing that. And I totally understand what you're saying. I'm not sure they're a good team. In fact, I think the Pats are an average team at best. But the conversation we are having here is about the quality of the division, and all I'm saying is that through three games, the Pats have the 3rd best point differential among 3rd place teams, which means they're a pretty good THIRD PLACE team. Which isn't saying much, but it means that that the division is probably pretty good on the whole. That's all I'm "arguing" here.
It's not unimpressive.
I can't believe people look at what Miami is doing and what the Eagles did last week and not think the Pats can compete with the best of the NFL.
I think it speaks very highly of the talent level on defense, as well as the fact that Bill can still coach the hell out of a defense (or maybe it is Stephen, I don’t know).
In the NFL in 2023 I’m not sure you can compete without at least an average offense, even if you have a great defense. I want to be wrong. They are 1-2 with their only win coming against a team with a QB who has absolutely no business being in the league.
You're not wrong.
But the point of this conversation is division quality. And the fact that the Pats are not close to being in the top 2 in the division indicates it's an excellent division. Hell, Bills and Miami are top 3 in the AFC and might be Top 3 in the entire NFL.
Right there makes this division incredible.
Fair enough. The Dolphins and Bill certainly look like two of the best teams in the AFC, I agree with that.
I think this team has an excellent defense that means we'll be in most games.... I just don't think you can consistently win the if you are below average at WR/OL/QB and I think we are at all 3.
I have no idea what the Patriots will do the rest of the way. I understand that the jets O under Zach is abysmal. Given the game plan and the game flow, I thought Mac looked pretty good. Obviously the first half he looked far more impressive. Outside of two or three lame throws downfield, Mac did a really nice job in pretty bad conditions and - and this is my primary point - it came against a REALLY GOOD DEFENSE. One of the better ones the team will face this season.
EDIT: fixed the flow
EDIT: fixed the flow
How are you accounting for them being in games down to the final possession against some of the league's finest?
I assume it’s because of the very good defense he mentioned.
Everyone knows the O is challenged. That’s their kryptonite until they show otherwise.
yeah the pats are the 2019 broncos that had a good young core then starteing to think they were 1 thing away the pats have a top 5 def as long as u be 3-1 aga the afc west sweep the jets go 3-2 4-1 aga nfc and pull a upset DAL KC u will get the 7 seed
Yep, for all the talk of this being a brutal schedule, there are a lot of Wins there for the taking over the next 14 games.
If the offense could just get to a some approximation of “in gear”, they could get to 10-7.
I’m not optimistic, but it’s possible.
Problem is there are 5 games (Dal, Buf x 2, Mia, KC) that they’ll probably go 0-5 or 1-4 in. Not much margin for error.
For sure. But it’s still the NFL, so no one should be shocked if we stole a couple of those, while also blowing a couple of winnable games against mediocre teams.
My hunch is that we’ll surprise someone, drop an “easy” one, and finish in the 7-8 win range.